The Impact of Informal Financial Groups on Socio‐economic Development in Tanzania

Financial deepening is universally considered to be one of the vital means to trigger inclusive growth, in economies the world over, Tanzania being no exception. However, the lack of traditional collateral among the poor has made it virtually impossible for them to have access to financial services particularly in the formal financial institutions. It is in this context that the informal financial groups (IFGs) are so crucial in filling the financial inclusiveness gap among the poor in Tanzania. It is thus crucial that the efficacy of IFGs in improving the well‐being of the poor is assessed. It is in this context that the present study employs a quasi‐experiment mixed methodology to answer research questions. Findings have categorically shown that membership to IFGs has a positive and significant impact on various socio‐economic variables. Efforts to intensify education and training activities in IFGs, and their access to loans are some of the key recommendations that this paper suggests. It is hoped that the newly promulgated 2017 National Microfinance Policy shall be implemented to that effect.     

Gender and Competition between Economic or Non‐economic Labor and Schooling: Evidence from EPAM Mali

Abstract: We use the Understanding Children's Work (UCW) definition of child labor and data from the Mali Permanent Household Survey to highlight the gender difference in the competition between economic or non‐economic labor and schooling. A quadri‐variate Probit estimation allows to account for the interdependency between school and various kinds of labor: household chores (HHC), market‐oriented (MO) activities and non‐market‐oriented (NMO) activities. Empirical results provide interesting findings, including differential gender socialization according to the gender of the offspring, gender bias in repartition of tasks and time, and competition between labor activities and schooling.     

Household Financial Savings Mobilisation: Empirical Evidence from Uganda

Panel data are used to examine household savings behaviour inUganda and the part that is played by formal financial institutionsin mobilising those savings. We show that the probability ahousehold will acquire a deposit instrument from a financialinstitution increases significantly for both rural and urbanhouseholds with improvements in several factors. Those factorsinclude the level of information that is made available to thehousehold, the degree of household access to the financial institution,the level of education of the head of household and the densityof financial institutions in the area where the household islocated. Among those households that report holding bank savingsdeposits, the level of net deposits is positively influencedby increases in the availability of credit facilities, lowertransaction costs (as reflected by the quality of financialservices provided by the institution) and higher permanent income.Relatively higher real rates of return on physical assets andhigher transaction costs (due to reduced accessibility) bothhave significant negative effects on the level of net depositsheld by households.     

THE IMPACT OF HIV/AIDS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA1

This study investigates the hypothesis that HIV/AIDS epidemic slows down the pace of economic growth. We examine 41 Sub‐Saharan African countries by using the empirical growth equation in an augmented Solow model in which health capital serves as a determinant of human capital. Econometric analysis is based on panel data and covers the period 1997‐2005. We control for a variety of factors possibly correlated with HIV prevalence that might also influence economic growth. As a key result we prove that the epidemic has a significant negative effect on the growth rate of per capita GDP in Sub‐Saharan Africa.     

Financial development and economic growth: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the case of China over the period 1952–2001. After considering the time series characteristics of the dataset, a multivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) framework is used as an appropriate specification and the long-run relationship among financial development, growth and other key growth factors is analyzed in a theoretically based high dimensional system by identification of co-integrating vectors through tests of over-identifying restrictions. The empirical results suggest that there exists a unidirectional causality from economic growth to financial development, conclusions departing distinctively from those in the previous studies.     

Migration and HIV/AIDS in South Africa

Although migration and HIV/AIDS have been examined separately in South Africa, researchers are still far from understanding in detail just how and to what extent the two are interconnected. The connections are difficult to unravel because HIV/AIDS arrived in the country at a time when population mobility and systems of labour migration were undergoing rapid transformation. Without a proper understanding of the complexity of the country's new migration regime, it will not be possible to understand either the role of mobility in the spread of the pandemic or the vulnerability to infection of mobile populations. This paper reviews the current state of knowledge on the interconnections between mobility and HIV and argues for more research that will further understanding of migrant vulnerability and the development of appropriate policies and models of intervention and care.     

艾滋病、全球化和人的安全

艾滋病问题与全球化是互为因果的关系,它的泛滥源于当今社会存在的诸多不平等与不公正问题,虽然其紧迫性并未像气候变暖或金融危机等全球化问题那么显著,但艾滋病问题依然是理解全球化的多重含义以及当今世界政治、社会、经济和文化权力运作方式的一个重要视角。美国的艾滋病救助政策体现了艾滋病问题所具有的安全含义,但它到底在多大程度上是出于利他主义的考虑,令人值得怀疑。自2000年艾滋病问题成为联合国安理会的议题以来,人们开始重新思考它对传统安全观所带来的冲击,虽然没有经验证据表明艾滋病问题助长了一国国内的冲突,但艾滋病加速恶化与国内的冲突现状密切相关。作者认为,对于艾滋病疫情的预防与应对,国际援助固然重要,但各国政府必须把自身资源投放到艾滋病的综合性预防、护理以及支持项目当中。     

Constraints in Access to and Demand for Rural Credit: Evidence from Uganda

Abstract: Like in most developing countries, Uganda's financial sector is largely underdeveloped and concentrated in urban areas, leaving the majority of the agricultural producers in the rural population with no access. However, agriculture forms a significant part of the lives of the rural households, who constitute about 85 per cent of the population. This study uses the Uganda household surveys conducted in 1992/93 and 1999/2000 to shed some light on access to, and the characteristics of demand for credit among the rural population. We employ the probit, tobit and multinomial logit model estimations and we analyse demand for credit and find that Uganda's credit market is highly segmented. The rural peasant producers are largely served by relatives/friends and self‐help credit associations and their loan applications are less likely to succeed, and of those that do, smaller loans are granted. The educated and the young are more likely to demand credit while women are less likely to, and to apply for smaller loans. Therefore, while government's agricultural modernization policy considers credit as an important input to its success and as the government plans to roll out the ‘wealth‐for‐all’ programme, more needs to be done to get credit to the sector and to ensure that it can be usefully utilized. Programmes to promote skills and vocational training to enhance production and training in appropriate use of credit are also needed.     

School attendance and economic shocks: Evidence from rural Zimbabwe

Unpredicted shocks such as weather, pests or price changes affect agricultural households negatively or positively. The shocks have two opposite effects (income and substitution) on parents’ investments in the human capital of their children, and it is not predictable from theory whether the income effect or the substitution effect of a shock has a greater impact on the investments. Therefore, it is unknown whether human capital investments (i.e. sending children to school rather than having them work) are procyclical or countercyclical. In this paper we show how hyperinflation may affect investments in the education of children by their parents using three data-sets from Zimbabwe. We find that human capital investments are countercyclical (the substitution effect dominates) in rural areas of Zimbabwe during a shock. Therefore, policymakers in Zimbabwe need to be worried about decreased schooling of children during positive shocks in the rural areas.     

HIV/AIDS AND POVERTY IN SOUTH AFRICA: A BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF SELECTION MODELS WITH CORRELATED FIXED‐EFFECTS

In this paper, we estimate the causal impact of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) on monetary poverty using a panel database from South Africa. We treat endogeneity and selection problems associated with HIV/AIDS by a selection model that includes correlated fixed effects both in the level and in the participation equations, which are estimated simultaneously via original Bayesian methods. We model the consequences of the illness on both labour income and income transfers, and disentangle between urban and rural households. While no significant impact of HIV/AIDS on labour income is found because of households' recomposition, we find a substantial fall in received transfers among rural population and a dramatic increase in chronic poverty.     

Innovation and Firm‐Level Productivity: Evidence from Bangladesh

In this paper, the labor productivity impact of manufacturing firms’ innovation in Bangladesh, a region which has, to date, been understudied in this respect, is examined through World Bank Enterprise Survey data from 2003 to 2006. We apply the Cobb–Douglas production function, augmented with innovation‐related inputs (and other expected sources of productivity) in a simultaneous three‐equation system connecting R&D to its determinants, innovation output to R&D, and productivity to innovation output; and in a two‐equation system connecting innovation output to its determinants and productivity to innovation output. Our results reveal that Bangladeshi firms’ process innovation is an important factor for their labor productivity, whereas the significant effect of product innovation is not clearly established.     

Marital Status and Productivity: Evidence from Personnel Data

Although a robust wage premium for married men has been documented extensively in the labor economics literature, prior studies have been hampered in testing competing explanations of the premium by a lack of data on worker productivity. This study exploits a unique data set that contains job-performance measures for employees of a large, hierarchical organization. The quasi-longitudinal data track the marital status and job productivity, including performance reviews and promotions, of male Naval officers in technical and managerial jobs. Compared with single men, married men receive significantly higher performance ratings and are more likely to be promoted. In estimates that control for selection arising from quit decisions, the size of the marriage productivity effect falls but in most cases remains robust. Also, based on supplementary tests, selectivity arising from the decision to marry appears to explain only a small portion of the unadjusted marriage premium for Navy officers.     

Citation success: Evidence from economic history journal publications

This study examines the determinants of citation success among authors who have recently published their work in economic history journals. Besides offering clues about how to improve one's scientific impact, our citation analysis also sheds light on the state of the field of economic history. Consistent with our expectations, we find that full professors, authors appointed at economics and history departments, and authors working in Anglo-Saxon and German countries are more likely to receive citations than other scholars. Long and co-authored articles are also a factor for citation success. We find similar patterns when assessing the same authors' citation success in economics journals. As a novel feature, we demonstrate that the diffusion of research — publication of working papers, as well as conference and workshop presentations — has a first-order positive impact on the citation rate.