The Role of Capital Flight and Remittances in Current Account Sustainability in Sub‐Saharan Africa

Abstract: The literature on capital flight and remittances is copious, as a plethora of studies in recent years have focused greater attention on the determinants and impact of capital flight and remittances in the development process. These issues are particularly pertinent to Africa in view of its relatively high incidence of capital flight in the presence of foreign exchange constraints, limited foreign capital inflows, external indebtedness and high dependence on overseas development assistance. The principal aim of this paper is to estimate the extent and magnitude of capital flights from Africa and remittance inflows to Africa, and to assess their role in current account sustainability. The paper employs standard methodological approaches to estimating capital flight and remittances for selected African countries and analyses their relationships with current account balance and key economic indicators. The findings from the statistical exercises in the paper yielded a number of important results:

• ? The magnitude of capital flight from Africa has increased considerably in recent years, with widespread fluctuations and volatility.
• ? The volume of remittances into Africa has increased dramatically but steadily.
• ? There is a negative association between balances on current account and capital flight, implying that capital flights tend to worsen current account difficulties.
• ? There is a positive relationship between remittances and current account, suggesting that remittances could play an important role in mitigating current account problems.
• ? The link between remittances and economic growth is positive, albeit insignificantly in the statistical sense, suggesting some evidence of the crucial role of remittances in the economic growth and development process.
• ? External debt and capital flight are positively intertwined, providing support to the so‐called ‘round‐tripping’ or ‘back‐to‐back’ hypothesis

The policy implications of these findings are that in spite of the good progress made by many African countries towards economic and political reforms, more innovative policy thinking and reform deepening must be initiated to create a conducive environment for private sector participation in general and foreign capital (including capital flight reversal) in particular. Similarly, there is a need for incentivising and mainstreaming remittances into national development strategies with the view to promoting the growth‐enhancing effects of remittances. A wide range of policy options and forward thinking analyses were advanced in the paper.     

The Effects of Remittances on Output per Worker in Sub‐Saharan Africa: A Production Function Approach

This paper uses a production function to examine the channels through which remittances affect output per worker in 31 Sub‐Saharan African countries from 1980 to 2010. Lagged remittances increase physical capital per worker, average years of schooling and total factor productivity, but the effectiveness of remittances varies with the income level of the recipient nation. Although remittances have increased both physical capital and total factor productivity among the upper middle income nations, among the lower middle income, they have increased only the physical capital. Meanwhile a reduction in institutional risk has encouraged investment and efficiency, but its relationship to the effectiveness of remittances has been inconclusive.     

Institutional Quality and CO2 Emission–Trade Relations: Evidence from Sub‐Saharan Africa

This paper examines the roles of trade, institutional quality and their interactions in explaining carbon dioxide emissions in a panel sample of 40 Sub‐Sahara African countries using the system generalised method of moments. We find that institutional reforms are unequivocally environmental improving. Meanwhile, the impacts of trade on the environment tend to depend on the institutional setting of a country. More specifically, trade openness is harmful to the environment in countries with low institutional quality and beneficial to the environment in countries with high institutional quality. This means that institutional reforms are a perquisite for the countries with low institutional quality to actualise the beneficial environment effect of trade. As for the countries with adequate institutional quality, trade and institutions are reinforcing each other in bringing down pollution. From these results, we conclude that trade openness implemented in a sound institutional setting potentially brings better trade, more growth and better environment.     

Institutional Foundations for Shared Growth in Sub‐Saharan Africa*

Abstract: The paper examines the dynamically evolving triangular relationships between institutions, growth and inequality in the process of economic development, in order to deepen the understanding of institutional conditions for pro‐poor growth and shared growth. In this context, the paper discusses the institutional conditions found in sub‐Saharan Africa, which may have produced the growth pattern that is unequal and against the poor. The analysis shows that sub‐Saharan African countries require transforming institutions for embarking upon and sustaining a development path which would ensure shared growth in years to come. The paper first evaluates the growth‐inequality‐poverty nexus, as found in the recent literature, which increasingly challenges the trade‐off between growth and equity, as postulated in the traditional theories. Various definitions of pro‐poor growth are discussed and a sharper definition of the concept of ‘shared’ growth is provided. Definitions of institutions are then examined, as well as the triangular inter‐relationships between institutions, inequality and poverty. The paper finally analyses specific institutional conditions found in sub‐Saharan Africa that prevent economies from emerging out of low‐equilibrium poverty traps that are characterized by low economic growth, unequal distribution of income and wealth as well as unequal access to resources and power.     

Terrorism and its Determinants in the Sub‐Saharan Africa Region: Some New Insights

Terrorism is undesirable as it adversely affects the economic development of countries. This study explores the determinants of terrorism in 29 countries of sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). The data is extracted from reliable sources spanning over 2005 to 2016. Econometric techniques relevant for panel data that control for unobserved heterogeneity (fixed effects) and endogeneity (generalized method of moment) are employed to estimate the specified models. The results indicated that low growth in per capita incomes along with political instability are the main driving forces responsible for terrorism. Similarly, military expenditures are influencing terrorism positively whereas corruption has impacted terrorism negatively in the SSA region. Further, the growth of both physical as well as human capital reduces terrorism. The paper suggests that the region should take appropriate steps for increasing income of the population, education and capital stock, along with ensuring political stability to eradicate terrorism from the region.     

The External Debt‐Servicing Constraint and Public‐Expenditure Composition in Sub‐Saharan Africa

Abstract: In the light of the current global financial and economic crises, how would governments in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) allocate their budgets across sectors in response to a binding debt‐servicing constraint? Within a framework of public‐expenditure choice, the present paper estimates constraint‐consistent debt‐service ratios and employs them in a Seemingly Unrelated Regression involving a five‐year panel for up to 35 African countries over 1975–94, a period preceding the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiatives. While observed debt service is found to be a poor predictor of expenditure allocation, constraining debt servicing shifts spending away from the social sector, with similar impacts on education and health. The implied partial elasticity of the sector's expenditure share with respect to debt is estimated at 1.5, the highest responsiveness by far among all the explanatory variables considered, including external aid. Thus, if the social sector is to be protected, sufficient debt relief for SSA countries should be pursued.     

Measuring Multi‐Membership in Economic Integration and Its Trade Impact: A Comparative Study of ECOWAS and SADC

One of the intriguing aspects of African regional trade agreements (RTAs) is the extent of multi‐membership, where many African countries are members of more than one RTA. Using a gravity model for 25 countries and the years 1980‐2006, we measure the extent of multi‐membership and compare its impact in two major African regional blocs, Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS) and Southern Africa Development Community (SADC). We find that the impact of multi‐membership critically depends on the characteristics of the multi‐membership of regional integration initiatives. We find a positive impact if an additional membership complements the integration process of the original regional integration initiative: overlapping memberships had a much stronger and significant positive effect on bilateral trade within ECOWAS compare with an insignificant impact within the SADC.     

Remittances' Influence on Housing Construction Demand in Sub‐Saharan Africa: The Case of Kenya

Abstract: Although it is well documented that immigrants maintain economic and social ties with their communities of origin through remittances, the role of remittances in asset acquisition for most African countries is yet to be documented. This study provides empirical estimates for the impact of remittances from abroad on housing construction demand in Kenya using time series data for the period 1970–2008. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modelling process is employed to capture the effect of remittances and other variables on housing construction demand. The computed short‐ and long‐run elasticities indicate that inbound remittances are one of the determinants of housing construction demand in Kenya. Other significant determinants include income, interest rates and urbanization growth.     

Citizens' support for Economic Reforms in Sub‐Saharan Africa

The objective of this paper is to investigate the factors that influence citizens' support for costly economic reforms in sub‐Saharan Africa. This is relevant for several reasons, but the most obvious perhaps is that economic reform will be difficult if faced by strong resistance from citizens. In this paper, individual data from Round 4 of the Afrobarometer surveys is used to investigate how support for economic reforms is influenced by factors falling under the following broad categories: (i) Economic variables; (ii) group identity and fairness variables; (iii) Institutional and state/government variables; (iv) Demographic and control variables. An individual's trust in the president and the belief that the government manages the economy well are two of the most significant and robust factors. This is in keeping with the results found in Williamson (The Political Economy of Policy Reform, Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC, 1994 ). Another robustly significant variable is satisfaction with how democracy works in the country. Variables related to ethnic identity and community membership also play a significant role in support for costly economic reforms, which is in line with the theories put forward by van de Walle (African Economies and the Politics of Permanent Crisis, 1979–1999. Cambridge University Press, New York, 2001 ). Females are less likely to support economic reforms, while individuals with higher levels of education are more likely to support economic reforms.     

Genuine Wealth Per Capita as a Measure of Sustainability and the Negative Impact of Corruption on Sustainable Growth in Sub‐Sahara Africa

In this paper, we argue that the answer to the question of whether the impact of corruption on development is homogenous, is no. Our optimism rest on how development may be conceptualised. When equated to a narrow measure in economic‐wise which fundamentally ignores critical issues, then there is a possibility the outlook could be positive. But when conceptualised using a broad‐based approach such as sustainable development, then the outlook could be negative. We assess a panel of 22 economies in Sub‐Sahara Africa with the most recent dataset (1996–2013) from the World Bank and other reputable agencies. Our finding is quite robust. It holds in pooled OLS, Fixed effects and GMM within IV settings; and it also holds for different measures of institutions and different measures of development using growth per capita GDP and genuine wealth per capita, respectively. Taking stock of major policy blue‐prints of selected countries in the region on the fight against corruption, we are able to point out that institutions play important role in insulating citizens against the devastation caused by corruption. Overall, through this comparison, we are able to signal that both incidental and systematic corruption poses a long‐term threat to sustainable development.