孤注一掷救券商

美国大搞资本市场,而我们不搞或是小搞,那就是我们的机遇;美国犯错误而我们不犯错误或少犯错误也是我们的机遇。希望我们能够不再重复美国的错误     

减税:转型的最后一公里

最近一条微博在互联网上疯狂转发:中国,工资5000元,吃一次肯德基30元,下馆子最少100元,买条Levis牛仔裤400元,买辆车最少3万元——夏利;美国,工资5000美元,吃一次肯德基4美元,下馆子40美元,买条Levis20美元,买辆车最多3万美元——宝马。"中国制造的产品为什么国内卖得比在美国还贵?主要原因是各种税费。商品价格中所含税费中国是美国的4.2倍,     

Facts & figures: Public sector pay: The last ten years

Next Steps: Improving Management in Government? Edited by Barry J. O'Toole and Grant Jordan (Dartmouth Publishing Company, Aldershot, 1995). £37.50. ISBN 1 855 21491 1.

The Myth of Democratic Failure. By Donald Wittman (University of Chicago Press, Chicago; distributed by John Wiley, Chichester, 1995). £23.95. ISBN 0 226 90422 9.

Managing Change in the New Public Sector. Edited by Roger Lovell (Pearson Professional, Southport, 1995). £32.50. ISBN 0 582 23893 5.     

Stochastic reserve changes and expansion of bank credit: The case of additional risks

In this paper we examine the effects of introducing additional risks to the Orr-Mellon-Cooper model on the asymptotic behavior of bank credit expansion, and derive monetary policy implications therefrom. Our model of additional risks corrects a loss of generality existing in the Orr-Mellon-Cooper model. It shows that the local solution for optimal credit expansion is the global solution, regardless of the parameters of the reserve loss functions, when the default risk is introduced. The analysis further points out necessary conditions to determine the direction of credit changes caused by a monetary injection under uncertainty.     

Lender of last resort: A contemporary perspective

This article re-examines the role of the central bank's lender of last resort (LLR) function in the current economic environment. It argues that the traditional role of protecting the money supply from collapse is no longer valid. LLR intervention is appropriate to offset temporary liquidity strains that are likely to depress asset prices and aggregate real income below their equilibrium levels. However, such support should be provided only rarely and through open market operations rather than the discount window.This article was started while the author was visiting the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The article was improved by constructive suggestions received from Douglas Evanoff, Gillian Garcia, Robert Laurent, Gerald O'Driscoll, Anna Schwartz, and an anonymous referee.     

Time pacing: competing in markets that won't stand still

Most companies change in reaction to events such as moves by the competition, shifts in technology, or new customer demands. In fairly stable markets, "event pacing" is an effective way to deal with change. But successful companies in rapidly changing, intensely competitive industries take a different approach. They change proactively, through regular deadlines. The authors call this strategy time pacing. Like a metronome, time pacing creates a rhythm to which managers can synchronize the speed and intensity of their efforts. For example, 3M dictates that 25% of its revenues every year will come from new products, Netscape introduces a new product about every six months, and Intel adds a new fabrication facility to its operations approximately every nine months. Time pacing creates a relentless sense of urgency around meeting deadlines and concentrates people on a common set of goals. Its predictability also provides people with a sense of control in otherwise chaotic markets. The authors show how companies such as Banc One, Cisco Systems, Dell Computer, Emerson Electric, Gillette, Intel, Netscape, Shiseido, and Sony implement the two essentials of time pacing. The first is managing transitions--the shift, for example, from one new-product-development project to the next. The second is setting the right rhythm for change. Companies that march to the rhythm of time pacing build momentum, and companies that effectively manage transitions sustain that momentum without missing important beats.     

国际外汇储备管理研究及对中国的启示

外汇储备作为汇率政策与货币政策的工具,要充分发挥其维护国际收支的平衡、支持国内货币、抵御风险和防范危机的作用,就必须坚持规模适度、结构合理、三性兼顾、动态运营的指导思想。从国际实践中可见,适度规模内外汇储备的管理,应该注重安全性和流动性。在安全性和流动性得到保障后,可以适当考虑储备的收益性。     

New development: The practical relevance of public sector accounting research; time to take a stand

ABSTRACT

This article discusses three major themes that challenge researchers to focus more on practice-relevant public sector accounting research: How to combine practice-oriented research with being an impartial scholar? Which types of research themes have practical relevance? How can research contribute to societally-relevant issues?     

The influence of economic research on financial mathematics: Evidence from the last 25 years

This is an attempt to review some of the breakthroughs in economic research as they impacted the nascent field of financial mathematics over the last 25 years. Because of the prominent role of Finance and Stochastics in the definition of this emerging field, I try to view things through the lens of its published papers, and I try to stay away from financial engineering applications.

     

The lender of last resort and the federal safety net

Under the aegis to the New Deal, the government established a safety net consisting of deposit insurance, a lender of last resort, and regulation. In the postwar period when the inflation rate was low, the economy stable, and the bank failure rate low, the safety net appeared to be an effective instrument to deliver financial stability. In the unstable economy since the 1970s, the functioning of each element of the safety net has been questioned. A reconsideration of the role assigned to each constituent is timely. I begin with a review that brings up to date since 1933, first, the role of regulation, second, deposit insurance, and third, the lender of last resort. Finally, I discuss how each of these might be reshaped in light of the changes since the 1970s.This paper was prepared for a conference in memory of Michael J. Hamburger at the Graduate School of Business Administration, New York University, March 12, 1987.     

The adverse selection effect of corporate cash reserve: Evidence from acquisitions solely financed by stock

Corporate cash reserve has an adverse selection effect. Specifically, if investors know a company does not have to issue to invest, an attempt to do so sends a strong signal of overvaluation. This notion has not been explicitly studied in the extant empirical literature, despite its intuitiveness. Using a sample of acquisitions solely financed by stock to exclude the potential complications of free cash flow, I find that announcement returns are lower for a bidder with a higher excess cash reserve. This effect is stronger in hot equity market years or when a bidder's standalone value is more difficult to evaluate. I also find evidence supporting the idea that targets request cash payment to remove “lemon” bidders in normal (non-hot equity market) years, but accept too many stock offers in hot equity market years. After acquisitions, high-excess-cash-reserve bidders operationally outperform low-excess-cash-reserve bidders. Further, they spend more funds on reducing debt but not more on investments, compared with low-excess-cash-reserve bidders. Combined, these results show that cash reserve has information costs. Further, they highlight the importance of the two-sided information asymmetry framework of Rhodes-Kropf and Viswanathan (2004) in describing merger outcomes without resorting to behavioral or agency explanations.     

衍生产品：华尔街死守不退的高地

早在2003年,投资圣手巴菲特便警告过世人：金融衍生产品（下称“衍生产品”）很可怕,是“大规模金融杀伤武器”。2009年5月,巴菲特又坦承,由于在衍生产品方面下赌,其公司伯克布尔·哈撒韦有可能赔钱。不知道老英雄是自伤还是被他在华尔街的“友军”误伤？很奇怪,巴菲特明明知道衍生产品是“大规模金融杀伤武器”,却偏偏要参与其中。     

Sales compensation governance: the last frontier of corporate reform

The area of sales compensation has remained relatively untouched by recent pressures for compensation reform. This article highlights some of the ways that sales organizations stumble in managing their compensation programs, and why it takes more than a simple tactical fix to address these problems effectively. The authors describe a more structured governance framework that not only identifies and resolves key sales compensation issues, but ultimately safeguards the effectiveness and financial integrity of the sales organization itself.     

For the last time: stock options are an expense

Should stock options be recorded as an expense on a company's income statement and balance sheet, or should they remain where they are, relegated to footnotes? The extraordinary boom in share prices during the Internet bubble made critics of option expensing look like spoilsports. But since the crash, the debate has returned with a vengeance. And no wonder: The authors believe the case for expensing options is overwhelming. In this article, Nobel Iaureate Robert Merton, one of the inventors of the Black-Scholes option-pricing model; his coauthor on the classic textbook Finance, Zvi Bodie; and Robert Kaplan, creator of the Balanced Scorecard, examine and dismiss the principal claims put forward by those who continue to oppose options expensing. They demonstrate that stock-option grants do indeed have real cash-flow implications that need to be reported. They show that effective ways certainly exist to quantify those implications. They detail the distortions that relegating stock-option accounting to footnotes creates. And they show why reporting option costs should in no way hamper young companies in their efforts to provide incentives. Options are indeed a powerful incentive, the authors agree, and failing to record a transaction that creates such powerful effects is economically indefensible. Worse, it encourages companies to favor options over alternative incentive systems. It is not the proper role of accounting standards, the authors argue, to distort executive and employee compensation by subsidizing one particular form of compensation and no other. Companies should choose compensation methods according to their economic benefits--not the way they are reported.     

Credit risk measurement: Developments over the last 20 years

This paper traces developments in the credit risk measurement literature over the last 20 years. The paper is essentially divided into two parts. In the first part the evolution of the literature on the credit-risk measurement of individual loans and portfolios of loans is traced by way of reference to articles appearing in relevant issues of the Journal of Banking and Finance and other publications. In the second part, a new approach built around a mortality risk framework to measuring the risk and returns on loans and bonds is presented. This model is shown to offer some promise in analyzing the risk-return structures of portfolios of credit-risk exposed debt instruments.