Regional Integration in East Asia: Achievements and Future Prospects

Economic integration in East Asia has been largely market driven. Attempts in the late 1980s to establish an East Asian regional economic grouping failed to materialize for a number of reasons. The financial crisis in 1997–1998 has strengthened the realization of regional countries that they need to have some self‐help mechanisms to overcome that crisis and to prevent future crises. This led to the development of several functional integration programs, including the network of bilateral swap arrangements known as the Chiang Mai Initiative. However, progress remains slow. The question that has arisen is how far these efforts need to be supported by institutional integration. Should the ASEAN Plus Three, the main regional cooperation process in East Asia involving the 10 South‐East Asian countries plus China, Japan, and South Korea, be deepened institutionally? Meanwhile, the region has seen the establishment of a new process, the East Asia Summit, involving the above 13 countries plus Australia, India, and New Zealand. How will these different arrangements contribute to East Asia's economic dynamism and prosperity as well as peace and political stability?     

当前东亚国际体系转型的特点及趋势

东亚国际体系在冷战结束前曾经历过朝贡体系、殖民体系和两极体系三次大的转型过程．这个体系演进的历史轨迹为现今东亚国际体系转型留下了众多的历史遗产,并最终形成当前东亚国际体系转型的独特之点,表现为中国作为新兴国家与地区各种力量之间关系的持续调整．美国作为区域外国家在东亚地区影响力的持续存在,区域经济整合与权力结构调整对东亚国际体系的共同塑造,东亚在体系转型过程中稳定性与对抗性的持续并存等,在这些特征基础上,东亚国际体系转型的趋势可以概括为三个主要方面,即“两国关系的调整,两种体系的博弈,一个共识的构建”。也就是中关关系将是东亚国际体系转型的主线,以经济来塑造政治将是体系转型的重要方式．利益协调与共识的建立将是努力的主要方向。     

中国对东亚经济合作的影响——基于中国地区能力结构差异以及与东亚其他国家的匹配性

基于贸易引力模型、相互依赖理论以及“支配-依附”理论，研究能力结构对区域经济合作的影响，通过对中国地区能力结构的差异分析和东亚其他国家能力结构的评价，说明中国能与东亚不同能力结构的国家开展持续稳定的经济合作，并通过实证予以证实。中国能够对东亚区域经济合作的持续性和稳定性发挥重要作用，中国的参与是东亚经济合作的“稳定器”。     

东亚货币合作可行性的经济数据检验——基于OCA理论的分析

在最优货币区理论构筑的分析框架下,东亚区域在经济开放度、出口产品结构相似性、经济冲击对称性方面达到了OCA理论的标准,而在生产要素的流动性、金融市场一体化等方面距离最优货币区的标准尚有差距,但是这种差距正在缩小。通货膨胀相似性方面东亚整体虽未满足OCA标准的要求,但是有次区域已经符合这一标准。考虑到最优货币区标准的内生性,而且大量文献通过对东亚地区进行分组并采用不同的研究方法,证明东亚地区存在形成最优货币区的潜力,因而对次区域的货币合作可行性分析依然乐观。     

Macroeconomic Linkages and Regional Monetary Cooperation: Steps Ahead*

There is a growing appetite for economic cooperation in East Asia. Although the region has forums to facilitate this, economic cooperation has focussed largely on discussion of issues and policies ? cooperative action is confined to functional cooperation in finance. There is scope for further cooperation in strengthening markets and institutions, with a view to accelerating convergence and stability in the region and deepening shared preferences about policy objectives, including on monetary and exchange rate issues. Although monetary policy in East Asia is generally focussed on controlling inflation, differences remain in economic structure and preferences about policy trade‐offs, markets, and institutions.     

Is East Asia an optimum currency area?

This paper assesses the empirical desirability of the East Asian economies to an alternative exchange rate arrangement (a monetary union) that can potentially enhance the exchange rate stability and credibility in the region. Specifically, the symmetry in macroeconomic disturbances of the East Asian economies is examined as satisfying one of the preconditions for forming an Optimum Currency Area (OCA). We extend the existing literature by improving the methodology of assessing the symmetry shocks in evaluating the suitability of a common currency area in the East Asian economies employing the Bayesian State-Space Based approach. We consider a model of an economy in which the output is influenced by global, regional and country-specific shocks. The importance of a common regional shock would provide a case for a regional common currency. This model allows us to examine regional and country-specific cycles simultaneously with the world business cycle. The importance of the shocks decomposition is that studying a subset of countries can lead one to believe that observed co-movement is particular to that subset of countries when it in fact is common to a much larger group of countries. In addition, the understanding of the sources of international economic fluctuations is important for making policy decisions. The falling share of country specific factor and the rising role of region factor indicate that East Asia has become increasingly favorable for a monetary union. However, the share of country-specific factor that is still significant implies that it could be costly to renounce individual currencies to advance into a monetary union in East Asia.     

Environmental rationalities and the development state in East Asia: Prospects for a sustainability transition

This paper reviews what is known about recent trends in environmental governance among the newly industrializing countries of East Asia and the implications of these developments for a sustainability transition within the region. The conceptual starting point for the review is research that examines sustainability transitions within the framework of a multi-level perspective on system innovation. One of the challenges presented by this framework is that of understanding how existing political economies and governance structures promote stability or change in socio-technical regimes. By socio-technical regimes we mean the predominant organizational, social and technological configurations through which societal needs are constituted and met. In the case of the rapidly industrializing and urbanizing economies of East Asia, the trajectory of socio-technical regimes will have profound consequences for local, regional and global environments. Our review of trends in environmental governance as they relate to socio-technical regimes within the region traces a pattern of initial efforts to strengthen environmental regulatory regimes very much along the lines of the policy models of OECD economies. The degree to which these initial efforts have taken root varies from country to country in the region. What is beginning to emerge in several countries within the region, however, are a variety of policy and institutional innovations that hold promise for opening up spaces for change in socio-technical regimes, and for creating opportunities for new pathways of industrialization and urbanization to take hold that are less pollution, materials and energy-intensive.     

以国际合作推进中国自主创新——兼论东亚经济发展的重要路径

随着经济全球化进程的不断加快,自主创新能力已成为衡量一个企业、一个国家以及一个区域经济体国际竞争力的重要指标.以国际合作推动自主创新是东亚经济发展的一条重要路径.东亚科技合作基础良好,如果东亚各国共同努力,前景理应广阔.中国对自主创新问题非常重视,不断加大研发投入力度,并积极融入东亚科技合作之中,是中国提高自主创新能力的重要对策.     

基于主导土地覆被的传统乡村景观区划 及特征研究——以粤东福佬区域为例

乡村景观是人类活动作用在自然基底上形成的综合 性区域景观体系,在区域尺度上对景观空间特征进行分析并做 区划研究有助于深入理解不同地域文化下的人地关系。以粤东 福佬民系这一族群所在区域为研究对象,选择主导土地覆被这 一敏感性指针,对区域景观类型特征进行描述与度量,最终依 据区划原则划定沃土之乡、荒埔之乡、山野之乡、丘谷之乡、 海滨之乡五大景观分区。进而在区域和聚落2类空间尺度下, 借助景观指数及图式语言,探明了粤东福佬区域内5类典型乡 村景观特征。在风景园林学科背景下,探索了一套新的乡村景 观区划研究路径,为区域尺度的传统乡村景观特征研究提供了 思路。     

An analysis of East Asian currency area: Bayesian dynamic factor model approach

There has recently been an increasing interest in the establishment of a common currency area in East Asia in the aftermath of the East Asian financial crisis. In this article I examine the desirability and feasibility of forming a currency area in the region by checking the symmetry of shocks as an important criterion of the theory of Optimum Currency Area. I employ a dynamic factor model to decompose aggregate output into world, regional and country‐specific components and estimate the model using a Gibbs sampling simulation. Persistent properties of those components are examined and variance decomposition analysis is performed to investigate the role of each component in output variance. The European Monetary Union, with the successful launch of the euro, is the natural benchmark for comparison. Based on variance analysis, it is found that East Asian countries, on average, are less plausible candidates for a currency area than European counterparts. However, a subgroup of countries in East Asia is as qualified as those in Europe. Given the ongoing integration in East Asia, it is not premature to prepare for such a currency area in this region.     

Regional Currencies Versus Dollarization: Options for Asia and the Americas

This paper undertakes an empirical assessment of Dollarization versus regional currency union as options for the economies of East Asia, South America and Central America. We use summary indicators of bilateral integration to examine the determinants of real exchange rate volatility within each region and between each region and the United States. While Europe is characterized by a high degree of regional integration, there is evidence of increasing integration in East Asia and persistently low integration in the Americas, especially as compared to the levels of bilateral integration vis-à-vis the United States. Our estimates confirm the patterns of regional integration above and reveal substantial regional differences as to the determinants of real exchange rate volatility.     

What's Not Converging? East Asia's Relative Performance in Income,Health, and Education*

This paper discusses East Asia's performance in terms of per capita gross domestic product growth rates over the past 40 years and compares that performance to progress primarily on measures of health. It also compares the region to the rest of the world on a set of broader development measures. It looks at the evidence of East Asian regional and global convergence in health and education, alongside evidence from the region matching global evidence of a comparatively weak link between income growth and health and education growth. This finding is echoed by available within‐country evidence from the region. This paper discusses what might be behind these results, suggesting the importance of a few simple supply‐side interventions coupled with the spread of demand for health and education services as sufficient to drive quality‐of‐life convergence.     

东亚货币合作研究文献综述

东亚货币合作是当前国际经济理论界关注的一个重要问题。本文就国内外理论界对东亚货币合作相关问题的研究文献进行了回顾和梳理,分析比较后发现国外学者注重理论发展和实证研究,国内学者则较侧重规范分析。     

东亚区域经济合作新模式:中国-东盟自由贸易区

2001年11月在第五次东盟与中国领导人（10＋1）会议上，中国与东盟达成一致，确立了10年内建成中国－东盟自由贸易区的目标。这对双方关系的长远发展和东亚地区的繁荣稳定具有深远意义。它是中国继加入世界贸易组织后又一件对外经贸方面的重大事件。本就这一东亚区域合作的新模式产生的国际背景，以及实现目标所面临的困难进行分析。     

构建“东亚共同体”刍议

在东亚地区的经济和社会发展交融之下,“东亚共同体”已是大势所趋。但自该概念提出后却始终举步维艰,至今仍停留在纸面。因此,需要积极借鉴欧洲一体化的经验和教训,推动“东亚共同体”的构建。     

制度因素与东亚双边贸易:贸易引力模型的实证分析

银行与金融、政府干预、黑市活动、资本流动与外国投资、货币政策对东亚经济体出口贸易有重要影响,银行与金融、政府干预、产权、政府负担对东亚经济体进口贸易有重要影响。提高政府干预质量,积极合理地引进国际直接投资,建立并完善公正廉洁高效的司法体系应成为东亚经济体各政府未来重要的政策取向。     

东亚货币竞争性均衡与人民币货币锚效应

人民币的升值空间,取决于东亚货币的集体竞争性均衡。东亚货币的集体升值,有助于缓解全球国际收支失衡,提高东亚经济的福利水平。东亚区域已经存在通过人民币的升值带动东亚区域整体升值的基础,人民币升值并不必然导致出口竞争力的下降,却能起到提高区域福利水平,缓解全球国际收支失衡的作用。     

Free Trade Agreements and the Prospects for Regional Integration in East Asia

Trade policy in East Asia has switched from non-discriminatory unilateral liberalization, reinforced by General Agreements on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization (GATT/WTO) commitments, to discriminatory free trade agreements (FTA). The paper surveys the FTA activity of the major regional players: China, the ASEAN countries, Japan, and South Korea. It concludes that emerging FTAs are weak and partial. A hub-and-spoke pattern of dirty FTAs will not drive regional economic integration or further integration with the global economy. Rather, it could be a force of regional economic disintegration – especially if the multilateral trading system weakens further. At the same time, FTA activity is distracting attention from the WTO, and, more fundamentally, from unilateral liberalization and domestic structural reforms. Hence, East Asian trade policies need to be rebalanced, with better-quality FTAs and more focus on the WTO. However, more important than the WTO and FTAs is a fresh spurt of unilateral liberalization and structural reform outside trade negotiations.     

The impact of Chinese monetary policy shocks on East and South‐East Asia1

We study the effects of Chinese monetary policy shocks on China's major trading partners in East and South‐East Asia by estimating structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models for six economies in the region. We find that a monetary expansion in Mainland China leads to an increase in real GDP (temporary) and the price level (permanent) in a number of economies in our sample, most notably in Hong Kong and the Philippines. The impact could result from intertemporal substitution present in a general equilibrium framework, which allows for positive domestic impacts of foreign monetary expansions. Our results emphasize the growing importance of China for its neighbouring economies and the significance of Chinese shocks for the design of monetary policy in Asian economies.     

从东亚区域经济合作看日本的战略问题

近年来的日本经济可谓"失去的十年",对此有种种论述和探讨,笔者认为日本的问题源于中长期战略的滞后和欠缺。面对全球经济的区域化和现实经济的相互依存性,东亚区域经济合作存在着必然的因素,同时也为日本经济的改革、发展提供了极好的平台和可能。