Some Evidence on the Adjustment of Producer Prices*

We document producer price adjustment using a low‐inflation micro price dataset. On average 24% of prices adjust each month, with an average increase/decrease of 6%. Producer prices adjust more frequently than consumer prices, but their size of adjustment is typically smaller. Sectoral heterogeneity in the frequency of price adjustment is strongly related to heterogeneity in the cost structure. Fluctuations in aggregate producer price inflation occur to a large extent through variation in the relative share of upward and downward price adjustment.     

Inflation and Price Adjustment: An Analysis of Microdata

I use large datasets on prices by products and stores from recent inflationary periods in Israel to compare simple menu cost models with simple uncertain and sequential trade (UST) models. The main empirical findings are (a) price erosion due to inflation explains only a tiny fraction of the variation in nonzero nominal price changes, (b) stores whose last nominal price change was relatively low are likely to choose a nominal price change that is relatively high, (c) stores that reduce their nominal price charge a lower price relative to stores that increase their nominal price, and (d) relative price variability is not related to inflation. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E300, E310, D210.     

Time consistent monetary policy with endogenous price rigidity

I characterize time consistent equilibrium in an economy with price rigidity and an optimizing monetary authority operating under discretion. Firms have the option to increase their frequency of price change, at a cost, in response to higher inflation. Previous studies, which assume a constant degree of price rigidity across inflation regimes, find two time consistent equilibria—one with low inflation, the other with high inflation. In contrast, when price rigidity is endogenous, the high inflation equilibrium ceases to exist. Hence, time consistent equilibrium is unique. This result depends on two features of the analysis: (1) a plausible quantitative specification of the fixed cost of price change, and (2) the presence of an arbitrarily small cost of inflation that is independent of price rigidity.     

Monetary Policy with Sectoral Trade‐Offs

We formulate a two‐sector New Keynesian economy featuring sectoral heterogeneity along three dimensions: price stickiness, consumption goods durability, and the usage of input materials in production. These factors affect both inter‐sectoral and intra‐sectoral stabilization. We examine the welfare properties of simple rules that react to alternative measures of final goods price inflation. Due to factor demand linkages, the cost of production in one sector is influenced by price‐setting in the other sector. Therefore, measures of aggregate inflation weighting sectoral prices based on their relative stickiness do not allow one to keep track of the effective speeds of sectoral price adjustment.     

Inflation and Relative Price Variability in a Low Inflation Country: Empirical Evidence for Germany

Abstract. The recent literature on the welfare cost of inflation emphasizes inflation's effect on the variability of relative prices. Expected and unexpected inflation have both been proposed to increase relative price variability (RPV) and, thereby, to distort the information content of nominal prices. This paper presents new evidence on the impact of inflation on RPV in Germany. Our results indicate that the influence of expected inflation disappears if a credible monetary policy stabilizes inflationary expectations on a low level. Yet the significant impact of unexpected inflation suggests that even low inflation rates can lead to welfare losses by raising RPV above its efficient level.     

Ökonometrische Inflationsanalyse für Österreich 1960/1975

Summary The following econometric study analyses the inflationary process in Austria since 1960. Price equations are estimated for the period 1960/1973 and several subperiods with quarterly and yearly data, forecasts of the development of the GNP-deflator and the consumer price index are made for 1974 and 1975. In this way it is possible to quantify the relative importance of inflationary factors and to test the stability of the price determination structures. Special emphasis is laid on the rôle of monetary variables and of price expectations in the process of price determination.The conclusion of the study is that accelerating inflation in the 70ies can be explained by the same factors than creeping inflation of the 50ies and 60ies. Inflation has always been of a mixed type, though the relative weight of cost, demand, monetary and expectational variables changed during the observation period. There is no sign that a new type of inflation with new behaviour patterns was emerging in the last years. Even the extraordinary (externally influenced) price rise in 1974 can be explained by price functions of traditional structure. Forecasts for 1975 show no substantial diminuation of inflationary pressures.     

Inflation and relative prices: A system–wide approach

The paper introduces a system-wide model for the analysis of the effects of inflation on relative prices. This enables the identification of those commodities whose relative prices are distorted by inflation. The model provides measures of the natural rate of relative price variability, which is associated with zero inflation, and the inflation rate which minimizes relative price variability. An illustrative application with Australian data is provided.     

The Well-Being Cost of Inflation Inequalities

In terms of well-being, how costly is inflation? To answer this question, empirical evaluations have typically studied average inflation rates at the national level, thus disregarding the role of inflation inequalities within a country. In this article, we relax the assumptions that heterogeneous consumers face homogeneous inflation rates, and study the correlation between price changes and self-reported satisfaction with living standards. We use newly available data from France and adopt two approaches. First, we focus on individually perceived inflation and use the internationally harmonized Opinion Price Index as a proxy for experienced inflation. Variations in perceived inflation help predict well-being differences among consumers, even when controlling for relevant sociodemographic factors, personality traits, and common method variance. We estimate their marginal impact to be higher than equivalent variations in nominal income. Second, we compare groups of consumers over time and find that changes in the price of a good disproportionately affect the relative well-being of those who consume it. The study shows that the well-being cost of the inflation crisis would be underestimated if looking at aggregate figures only.     

Inflation,tax rules,and the prices of land and gold

Traditional theory implies that the relative price of consumer goods and of such real assets as land and gold should not be permanently affected by the rate of inflation. A change in the general rate of inflation should, in equilibrium, cause an equal change in the rate of inflation for each asset price. The experience of the past decade has been very different from the predictions of this theory: the prices of land, gold, and other such stores of value have increased by substantially more than the general price level. The present paper presents a simple theoretical model that explains the positive relation between the rate of inflation and the relative price of such real assets. More specifically, in an economy with an income tax, an increase in the expected rate of inflation causes an immediate increase in the relative price of such ‘store of value’ real assets. The behavior of real asset prices discussed in this paper is thus a further example of the non-neutral response of capital markets to inflation in an economy with income taxes.     

Evidence on the effects of inflation on price dispersion under indexation

Distortionary effects of inflation on relative prices are the main argument for inflation stabilization in macro models with sticky prices. Under indexation of non-optimized prices, those models imply a nonlinear and dynamic impact of inflation on the cross-sectional price dispersion (relative price or inflation variability, RPV). Using US sectoral price data, we estimate such a relationship between inflation and RPV, also taking into account the endogeneity of inflation by using two- and three-stage least-squares and GMM techniques, which turns out to be relevant. We find an effect of (expected) inflation on RPV, and our results indicate that average (??trend??) inflation is important for the RPV?Cinflation relationship. Lagged inflation matters for indexation in the CPI data, but is not important empirically in the PPI data.     

Inflation and the Exchange Rate: The Role of Aggregate Demand Elasticity

This paper examines the effect of aggregate demand elasticity on the exchange rate when inflation occurs. We discover that both the source of the inflation, whether demand-pull or cost-push, and the elasticity of aggregate demand with respect to the price level, are of consequence for the exchange rate. We obtain two primary conclusions. First, the effect on the exchange rate of cost push inflation is ambiguous and is partially determined by the price level elasticity of aggregate demand. In particular, and assuming that the two examined countries have equivalent aggregate supply elasticities, we conclude that the nation with the less elastic aggregate demand function will see its currency appreciate relative to the other. Second, demand-pull inflation results in an unambiguous increase in the exchange rate but the size of that increase is partially a function of aggregate demand elasticity. Assuming again that two countries have equivalent aggregate supply elasticities, that country with the more elastic aggregate demand will experience currency appreciation.     

Partial inflation indexation and long-run inflation targeting in a growing economy: A comparison of Calvo and Rotemberg pricing models

The observed 2% long run inflation target in most developed industrial nations is in variance with the zero or negative optimal inflation rates predicted by prominent monetary theories. Using a calibrated simple New-Keynesian model with endogenous growth and nominal rigidity, we compare two price setting environments of Calvo (1983) and Rotemberg (1982). In our growth model, the steady state welfare maximizing inflation takes into account the growth effect as well as the price distortionary effects of inflation. The long-run welfare maximizing trend inflation could be positive in economies with nominal rigidity in the form of partial inflation indexation and price stickiness. A higher degree of inflation indexation lowers the steady state price distortion in the Calvo model and steady state price adjustment cost in Rotemberg model and raises the long run optimal inflation. Since the productive inefficiency caused by partial inflation indexation is higher in Calvo economy compared to Rotemberg, the long run optimal trend inflation is higher in Rotemberg than in Calvo. In both models, a two percent long run inflation target is attainable for a reasonable degree of inflation indexation.     

To converge or not converge: unit labor cost inflation in the Euro area

In this article, convergence of unit labor cost (ULC) inflation within the Euro area is tested by means of panel unit root tests. To account for the small cross-sectional dimension, cross-sectional dependence of model innovations and time varying volatility, wild bootstrap critical values are employed for inference. Convergence is tested separately for pre- and post-Euro introduction subperiods. Moreover, we identify particular economies that are characterized by diverging ULC inflation after the introduction of the Euro. While the German economy is characterized by ULC inflation which is persistently below the sample average, Spain and Italy have suffered sustained losses of price competitiveness against their trading partners within the Euro area. ULC inflation in Finland, France, and Ireland can be classified as neutral with respect to relative competitive positions.     

The Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables and Relative Price Variability in Greek Agriculture

The purpose of this paper is to present a measure of relative price variability (RPV) among 53 agricultural products and to explore the relationships between RPV, aggregate inflation rate, and changes in economic activity for the period 1962–1997. We also estimate the effects of expected and unexpected components of inflation on price variability. The results show that changes in inflation rate and economic activity have a strong positive effect on RPV, in addition, expected inflation is found to be an important determinant for explaining price variability.     

Inflation,oil price volatility and monetary policy

In a fully micro-founded New Keynesian framework, we characterize an analytical relationship between average inflation and oil price volatility by solving the rational expectations equilibrium of the model up to second order of accuracy. The model shows that higher oil price volatility induces higher levels of average inflation. We also show that when oil has low substitutability in the production function, the higher the weight the central bank assigns to inflation in the policy rule, the lower the level of average inflation is. The analytical solution further indicates that, for a given level of oil price volatility, average inflation is higher when marginal costs are convex in oil prices, the Phillips Curve is convex, and the degree of relative price dispersion is higher. The evolution of inflation during the 70s and 80s is consistent with the prediction of the model.     

General price level instability and the variability of relative prices in Switzerland

The relationship between inflation and relative price change variability is studied in the context of a stochastic, rational expectation, multigood equilibrium model. The model implies a stable regression function which characterizes the relationship between the relative price change variance and the squared unexpected inflation rate. The main theoretical implications of the model are empirically tested using monthly Swiss data.     

STRUCTURAL INFLATION AND THE 1994 'MONETARY' CRISIS IN CHINA

This paper examines the 1994 inflation in China, which occurred at a time when the government was vigorously conducting macroeconomic contraction. The event deserves more attention for both academic and policy research reasons. The paper shows that the inflation was led by food price increases, a step of price reform intended to adjust relative price ratios to the equilibrium level. The nature of the inflation was structural rather than monetary. This kind of structural inflation is common in transitional economies. Indeed, it largely characterizes chronic price increases that have occurred in such countries. A proper monetary policy curbing inflation should take into account the structural factor. Monetary growth should be targeted to the extent that it accommodates structural adjustment but does not cause pure monetary inflation.     

INFLATION AND VARIETY*

Economies undergoing high inflation often experience a reduction of product variety in the marketplace. Existing models study how inflation affects quantity, but very few have studied how inflation affects variety. In a monetary model with explicit microfoundations, I analyze how inflation affects variety as well as quantity. I consider two pricing mechanisms—bargaining and price posting with directed search. I show that inflation reduces both quantity and variety under both pricing mechanisms. Quantitatively, the model implies that the total welfare cost of 10% inflation ranges from 4.77% to 8.4% under bargaining and is 1.52% under price posting.     

Sticky prices and moderate inflation

Recent evidence shows that there is great heterogeneity in the price setting frequency across sectors, and that those changing prices frequently do so even under low inflation. What happens to price setting strategies of sticky price goods under moderate inflation? We built a dataset of monthly newspaper and magazine prices for Colombia, for the period 1960–2005, an exceptional example of prolonged moderate inflation. Within this macroeconomic scenario, and the novel database, we study the frequency of price adjustment, the relative importance of time- and state-dependent theories, and their evolution as inflation declined from moderate rates to single digits.     

A Panel Smooth Transition Approach to Inflation and Relative Price Variability in China

This paper examines the relationship between inflation and relative price variability (RPV) by using provincial level data from China. The data contains three different inflation regimes and evidence of smooth transition is statistically prominent and the province‐specific time‐varying marginal impact of inflation on RPV varies substantially across inflation regimes. The inflation–RPV linkage is stronger when inflation is moderately high, but tends to fade out and might eventually disappear when inflation is steadily low. The policy implication of this result is that inflation targets should be set within a range in which the inflation–RPV link is the weakest (i.e. low‐inflation regime) to minimize undesirable price dispersion induced by inflation.