Overseas Investment and Firm Exports

A firm can serve overseas customers by exporting or by producing in the foreign market. Thus, ceteris paribus , one might expect increases in overseas investment to displace exports. However, most empirical work has found a positive relation between the two variables. The authors use a panel dataset containing 25 years' of data on 932 Japanese manufacturing firms to investigate the effect direct investment abroad has on exports. For the full sample of firms, complementarity is found. The relationship, however, varies across firms. Those that are unlikely to ship intermediates to overseas production affiliates exhibit substitution.     

Effects of trade diversion and trade creation of MERCOSUR on US and world apple markets

Apples are the third most valuable fruit in the United States and account for 18% of US fruit exports. Chile is a major competitor to the United States in the MERCOSUR market, since it is one of the leading apple producing countries and enjoys the tariff reductions as a member of MERCOSUR. Consequently, Chilean exports displace US exports in MERCOSUR. In addition, other MERCOSUR members import more from lower-cost Chile, leading to a reduction in production and an increase in consumption in these countries. This study develops a theoretical and an empirical model of world apple market to quantify the trade diversion and trade creation effects of the MERCOSUR free trade agreement and to estimate the welfare impacts.     

我国经济型汽车企业的自主品牌发展

我国自主品牌汽车企业的持续快速发展对振兴我国民族汽车工业具有重要的意义,但是,在企业发展过程中存在国家对于重大项目研究投入相对分散、政府采购对自主品牌支持不足、零部件企业发展滞后、研发资金投入不足、人才支撑体系能力弱等问题。政府应加大政策扶植力度、汽车整车厂与零部件企业应形成战略同盟关系,充分发挥企业家的创新核心作用,充分发挥人才作用等。     

Host country characteristics and agglomeration in foreign direct investment

By combining unique data on Swedish multinationals with industry data for 18 countries, the influence of host country characteristics on the location of foreign production is analysed. Particular attention is directed towards agglomeration tendencies in firms' location. The sample selection incorporates countries where firms have no affiliate production, which is an extension of previous research in this area. The results suggest that agglomeration effects are present, predominantly in technologically advanced industries. It is also shown that market size, the supply of skilled labour and earlier exports pattern, affect the location of overseas production.     

Ethnic Networks and US Exports*

This paper provides new estimates of the effects of ethnic networks on US exports. In line with recent research, our dataset is a panel of exports from US states to 29 foreign countries. Our analysis departs from the literature in two ways, both of which show that previous estimates of the ethnic‐network elasticity of trade are sensitive to the restrictions imposed on the estimated models. Our first departure is to control for unobserved heterogeneity with properly specified fixed effects, which we can do because our dataset contains a time dimension absent from previous studies. Our second departure is to remove the restriction that the network effect is the same for all ethnicities. We find that ethnic‐network effects are much larger than has been estimated previously, although they are important only for a subset of countries.     

Time-Series Wage Differential in Taiwan: The Role of International Trade

Rising relative wages between skilled and unskilled workers in developed countries has been a popular subject of recent studies. This paper analyzes Taiwan, a semi-developed economy, where the relative wage reveals a declining trend since the mid-1980s. The authors study the role of international trade. A major point of departure is to distinguish the effects of net exports to OECD countries from those to non-OECD countries. The paper also differentiates the effects of net exports to China from those to non-OECD countries except China. It is found that net exports to the OECD countries raise the relative wage of skilled workers, whereas net exports to non-OECD countries and China diminish the relative wage. Moreover, the impacts of net exports to China are much larger than those to OECD and other non-OECD countries. The documented wage effects of international trade in this work diverge from what existing works have argued based on Heckscher–Ohlin theory.     

CAN A MANUFACTURED GOOD CEASE TO BE A MANUFACTURED GOOD MERELY BY CROSSING A NATIONAL FRONTIER?

While economists often stress the importance of increasing developing countries' production and exports of manufactures, there are major inconsistencies in the definitions of 'manufactures' employed by national and international agencies. Specifically, developed and developing countries' production data is generally compiled using a far broader definition of manufactures than is employed for trade statistics. This limits the analytical utility of the output and trade data since they are not on a comparable base. An additional problem is that international agencies also employ different definitions of manufactures when compiling trade statistics. For some countries these definitional changes produce major differences in the value and share of manufactures exports and imports.
This study attempts to assess the analytical implications of six alternative definitions by comparing results when each is used to tabulate the 'manufactures' exports of 72 developing countries. The results show that the different definitions result in a discrepancy of $60 billion in developing countries manufactures exports. Sensitivity tests show that five or six products are responsible for the major discrepancies, with the key item being refined petroleum (SITC 332). These items are included in the UNIDO (trade) and most agencies output definitions, but are excluded from the trade definition used by UNCTAD, World Bank, and GATT.
The influence of the alternative definitions on some established country classifications, including UNCTAD's 'major exporters of manufactures', are examined. The results show that this country classification is out of date due to major shifts in the relative importance of individual exporters in the 1980s. However, even with the most recent trade statistics there would be important differences in 'major' or 'fast growing' exporters under alternative definitions of manufactured goods.     

Structural transformation and growth of merchandise trade of low-income economies 1980–1992

The Heckscher-Ohlin Vanek theorem, which predicts a direct relationship between exports and greater supply of factors used to produce those exports, performs only 50 percent of the time. However, there is no alternative theory which explains such a relationship. This paper analyzes the growth of merchandise trade of low-income countries, with particular reference to the growth of exports and net exports as these countries move from the predominantly agricultural goods producing era to the manufactured goods producing era. Results suggest, among other things, that industrial structure and governmental policies play an important role in the growth of merchandise trade.     

EXPORTS AND JOBS: THE CASE OF JAPAN, 1975–2006

This paper asks how much employment is created by increasing goods and services exports and how the export dependence of employment has changed over time. Using the newly developed Japanese input‐output table for 1975–2006, this paper estimates the effect of exports on an industry's employment (i.e., direct effect) and the effect on other industries' employment (i.e., indirect effect). One of our major findings is that the magnitude of the indirect effect exceeded that of the direct effect over almost the entire period. This implies that more than half of the effects of exports appeared through intraindustry linkages. We also found the indirect effect of goods exports is not limited to goods industries. As a result, the increases in the export dependence of employment are not limited to major Japanese export‐oriented industries such as electrical machinery, motor vehicles, and general machinery. In identifying the potential risks of negative external shocks, it is important for policy makers to estimate how much employment is indirectly as well as directly dependent on exports. (JEL F16, F14)     

China’s Exports during the Global COVID-19 Pandemic

The global COVID-19 pandemic caused various economic contraction in most countries, including all of China’s major trading partners. Using a difference-in-differences model, this study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on China’s monthly exports from January 2019 to May 2020. We find strong and robust evidence that China’s exports to countries at high risk from the pandemic experienced a larger decline than exports to low-risk countries after the onset of the pandemic, with the prices of exports increasing significantly. Furthermore, the results of a triple differences model show heterogeneous effects across different industries and goods. Chinese industries located upstream in the global value chain are more vulnerable than those located downstream. Industries with high labor and contract intensity (proxies for processing trade) experienced greater declines than other industries. Exports of goods with high import elasticity of substitution experienced higher prices and moderate volume losses due to the pandemic.     

Exports and growth: a causality analysis for the pulp and paper industries based on international panel data

This study examines the causal relations between exports and domestic production in the pulp and paper industries. The issue is whether exports are the engine of growth, or whether exports follow growth. The data were time-series of the 15 main exporting countries between 1961 and 1995. The method was Granger-causality analysis with error correction, based on models estimated in three ways: ordinary least squares by country, least squares with dummy variables (LSDV), and seemingly unrelated regression. Regardless of method, the strongest relation was an instantaneous (within a year) feedback between exports and production. The LSDV results implied average multipliers across countries of 1.2 to 1.4 from exports to production, and 0.20 to 0.25 from production to exports, in both industries. Experiments with monthly data on the pulp industries of Canada and the USA showed that temporal aggregation could affect the Granger-causality test results.     

海外华人网络对中国对外贸易影响的面板数据分析

除了改变生产要素的供给以外,移民网络同时也可以降低国际贸易的交易成本以及产生"移民偏好转移"等作用.华人网络对中国对外贸易的总体促进效应比以前学者得到的结果要小;并且,对于不同的国家而言,华人网络对中国对外贸易既有促进作用也存在抑制作用.     

Keiretsu and Relationship‐Specific Investment: A Barrier To Trade?

This article develops a model of informal procurement within Japanese keiretsu so as to consider effects on intermediate-good imports, such as auto parts. Parts-suppliers make relationship-specific investments that benefit the automaker and prices are determined by bargaining after investment has been sunk. Although this investment raises efficiency, it limits the range of imports to less important parts, such as tailpipes, and it is possible that no parts are imported, despite lower foreign costs. Lack of information concerning investment rents combined with counterintuitive responses of imports to changes in output and costs could create unwarranted perceptions of a trade barrier.     

Understanding Japan's Capital Goods Exports

Japan is the leading supplier of sophisticated capital goods to East Asian countries. These goods embody advanced technologies and facilitate learning and productivity growth. Capital goods also represent 30–40% of Japan's exports. This paper investigates the determinants of these exports. Results from dynamic ordinary least squares estimation indicate that exports depend on exchange rates, income in the importing countries and downstream countries' exports to the rest of the world. Results from out‐of‐sample forecasts indicate that Japanese exports crashed in 2009 because of the perfect storm of a yen appreciation, a global slowdown and a collapse in Asia's exports.     

Measuring the effectiveness of cost and price competitiveness in external rebalancing of euro area countries: What do alternative HCIs tell us?

This study examines the marginal effects of traditional determinants of exports and imports with a focus on the role of price competitiveness in restoring external balances in the euro area. It is a first attempt to compare marginal effects of various harmonised competitiveness indicators (HCIs) on both exports and imports of both goods and services across individual euro area countries. We find evidence that HCIs based on broader cost and price measures have a larger marginal effect (with some exceptions) on exports of goods. Exports of services are sensitive to HCIs in big euro area countries and Slovakia, where exports of services are also found more sensitive to competitiveness indicators based on broader price measures. Imports of goods and imports of services are quite insensitive to changes in relative prices. Finally, in some cases measures of fit indicate that a large unexplained residual part is present, implying that other non-price related factors might play an important role in driving foreign trade and policies aimed at enhancing the quality of goods traded are warranted.     

Exports and economic growth in Central and East European countries during transition

This paper quantifies the contribution of exports to economic growth in Central and East European countries (CEECs) during transition. Two theoretical models are examined: the first is based on an aggregate production function which includes exports as an additional ‘input’; while the second is based on a two-sector (exports and non-exports) model where exports provide positive externalities in non-export production. Each model is estimated with both fixed and random effects using panel data. Results show that the random effects model is preferred and that exports have a significant impact on economic growth.     

Vertical specialization in the EU and the causality of trade

We use a novel classification scheme to identify three stages of production in the manufacturing sector: parts, components and final goods. In particular, we offer evidence on the revealed comparative advantage of the EU-27 countries concerning the three vertically separated stages of production. Moreover, we investigate whether, and if so how, imports of parts, and components can work as a predictor for the exports of final goods. We find that countries specialize at different stages of production, and that components are Granger causal for the export of final goods in many countries with a lag of 3 months.     

Trade, Multinational Sales, and FDI in a Three-factor Model

The overwhelming importance of multinational activities as well as the coexistence of exporters and multinationals within the developed countries demand for theoretical models which provide a convincing explanation of simultaneous two‐way trade and horizontal multinational activities. We present a model with three factors of production to disentangle the two‐fold role of headquarters for their affiliates into a know‐how (headquarters services) and a capital‐serving part (FDI). We simulate the model to derive predictions about the impact of trade costs, plant set‐up costs, fixed multinational network costs, relative country size and factor endowments on exports, multinational sales and FDI. The effects are not uniform for multinational sales and FDI. Whereas exports and affiliate sales increase with the similarity in country size, FDI is more likely to increase monotonously with the sending country's size.     

The Eurozone Sovereign Debt Problem: What It Means for U.S. Exports

The European sovereign debt problem became the focus of world attention in 2010, when the interest rates on Greek government bonds rose dramatically, requiring immediate action by the European Union to avoid an imminent default. It has become clear that the problem is not limited to Greece, but a more general problem of the fundamental imbalances and underlying inconsistencies in the Eurozone economic system of using a single currency for a set of countries that lack a unified economic and political system. Financial markets reacted to the debt offering of the other deficit countries in the Eurozone by increasing interest rates on their sovereign debt as well. The major consequences are likely to be largely felt by the Eurozone countries themselves, some of whom will be forced to go through significant structural adjustments over the coming years. The adjustment process could generate a range of alternative macroeconomic outcomes for affected countries??including differences in growth, exchange rates, and investment??which could have significant implications for U.S. trade. This paper attempts to allay some of that uncertainty by exploring a wide range of alternative global macroeconomic outcomes and their potential impact on U.S. exports. The analysis extends the work done in a previous paper which focused on U.S. agricultural exports and its major components. While U.S. exports vary across the scenarios, continued strong economic growth in developing countries supports demand for U.S. exports. Because the EU has represented a declining share of U.S. exports, the direct impact of changes in European demand affects U.S. exports less than the secondary effects of changes in exchange rates and global investment patterns associated with alternative EU outcomes.     

Overseas business costs and firm export performance

Abstract.  The recent microeconomic literature on international trade has highlighted the importance of firm characteristics and trade costs for exports. This study provides evidence on one type of those costs, the costs of doing business overseas, from a theoretical and empirical perspective. Controlling for firm- and industry-level covariates, we find that improvements in the business environment of foreign countries lead to an increase in the export intensity of exporters in the UK manufacturing sector and additional export market entry. Further investigation suggests that important determinants of foreign business costs include factors relating to legal structure, property rights, and business regulation.