Economic effects of card transactions in Singapore

There is some concern that the increasing use of credit and charge cards may have adverse effects on the Singapore economy. This paper argues that while cards provide economic benefits in many ways, their monetary impact on inflation should be negligible and their impact on consumption and overspending should not be cause for much concern.     

Time-based competition: Some empirical data from Singapore

The progressive edge of competition has moved from what was primarily a cost-based strategy through that which was quality-based, and then variety-based, and now, onto the time-based mode of competition. This paper presents a status report of the response of the Singapore manufacturing sector to such a progression in competitive paradigms. In particular, we will refer to empirical data from the latest Singapore Manufacturing Futures Survey to provide an update on the apparent status of the local manufacturing environment in terms of such current paradigms of competition. From these, we will draw some implications for operations management, that is, what should local producers and suppliers do in the light of such current modes of competition. Such implications may be of help to other manufacturing businesses operating in other countries.The author is with the Department of Decision Sciences, National University of Singapore, 10 Kent Ridge Crescent, Singapore 0511.     

Some determinants of entry into the rapeutic drug markets

This paper investigates empirically some determinants of entry into the U.S. pharmaceutical industry during the period 1964–1974. The statistical findings of the study are consistent with a priori expectations. Market growth is found to provide incentives for entry, Product differentiation, market concentration, and drug innovation are found to be significant barriers to entry into drug markets.     

Union Growth in Malaysia and Singapore

This paper examines the determinants of trade union membership growth in Malaysia and Singapore for the period 1965–1983 and finds that the standard Western-based aggregate model of trade union growth applies to these countries. However, regression results suggest that the model's key variables have differential effects in the two countries.     

Telecommunications and economic development in Singapore

The existing research of aggregate statistical analysis on the relationship between telecommunications and economic development is largely organized around the hypothesis that telephone growth fosters economic development. Although considerable evidence supports that hypothesis, there is also a growing realization that the growth of telecommunications, in turn, requires a sound economy. The existing research, however, ignores the reciprocal relationship between these two variables. Employing Singapore data, this article formulates a simultaneous equation model to assess the reciprocal relationship between telecommunications and economic development. These data support the reciprocal relationship hypothesis. Policy implications of the findings are also discussed.     

Top executive commitment to the status quo: Some tests of its determinants

Some top executives are more committed to the status quo—particularly to their organization's current strategy and leadership profile—than are others. Most empirical research on upper echelons treats psychological phenomena as a ‘black box’—the unobserved intervening mechanisms—that causes associations between more observable executive characteristics and organizational outcomes. In contrast, this paper attempts to directly examine the determinants of an important element of an executive's psychological orientation—commitment to the status quo (CSQ). We focus on a select set of variables which have been posited in prior research as determinants of executive CSQ, but which have not been directly tested for such a relationship. Based on a large-scale survey methodology, results suggest that an executive's tenure in an industry is a pronounced determinant of CSQ, and has significantly more impact than organizational tenure. As expected, the firm's current performance was found to be positively related to CSQ; this relationship was stronger in high-discretion than in low-discretion industries. Finally, the project reaffirms a well known human tendency: incumbent CEOs tend to believe that their eventual successors should be just like them.     

Announcement effects and market efficiency in a thin market: An empirical application to the Singapore equity market

Studies of share price responses to public announcements have assumed that there is no serious thinness in trading. This paper reports the findings of a study of price responses of thinly-traded shares in the Singapore equity market. With appropriate methodological refinements for thinness in trading, the announcement effects of earnings, dividends and capitalisation changes are studied. The results suggest that there are statistically significant abnormal returns during the months up to and including the month of announcement. With some minor exceptions, there appears to be no significant abnormal returns during the months after the announcements: semi-strong form efficiency is thus observed. These results are consistent with prior findings in the developed capital markets.The authors wish to thank the anonymous reviewers for their useful suggestions. This paper has benefitted from financial assistance of the Department of Commerce of the University of Queensland.     

FDI的地区聚集及其空间演化--以江苏为例的研究

外商直接投资(FDI)在空间分布上有特定的规律，形成地区性聚集是绝大多数外资企业的归宿。在聚集的空间演化过程中，FDI呈现出扩散和聚集的不同历史特征。本文以江苏省FDI的历史数据为样本，分析FDI聚集过程的空间演化模式。加总的数据分析显示，FDI的空间分布经历了随机扩散—扩散向聚集转化—聚集的三个演化阶段；行业层面的进一步考察显示，传统行业由最初的聚集逐渐向扩散演化，而新兴行业则由最初的随机分布逐渐向聚集演化。回归分析证明，成本因素、聚集经济的外部性和路径依赖作用在空间演化过程中起到了决定性的作用。     

中国反倾销与对华直接投资相关性实证研究

反倾销是目前研究的热点之一,本文从中国反倾销与外商对华直接投资相关性这个角度,利用企业水平的模型进行回归实证分析,并结合案例,得出中国反倾销与外商对华直接投资之间存在正的相关性。结果表明,中国的反倾销会引起外商对华直接投资的增加,特别是跨国公司对华直接投资的增加。     

Customer churn analysis: Churn determinants and mediation effects of partial defection in the Korean mobile telecommunications service industry

Retaining customers is one of the most critical challenges in the maturing mobile telecommunications service industry. Using customer transaction and billing data, this study investigates determinants of customer churn in the Korean mobile telecommunications service market. Results indicate that call quality-related factors influence customer churn; however, customers participating in membership card programs are also more likely to churn, which raises questions about program effectiveness. Furthermore, heavy users also tend to churn. In order to analyze partial and total defection, this study defines changes in a customer's status from active use (using the service on a regular basis) to non-use (deciding not to use it temporarily without having churned yet) or suspended (being suspended by the service provider) as partial defection and from active use to churn as total defection. Thus, mediating effects of a customer's partial defection on the relationship between the churn determinants and total defection are analyzed and their implications are discussed. Results indicate that some churn determinants influence customer churn, either directly or indirectly through a customer's status change, or both; therefore, a customer's status change explains the relationship between churn determinants and the probability of churn.     

FDI与环境协调发展研究

在经济全球化过程中,利用外资已成为经济快速增长的重要方式。FDI的进入对我国的经济发展起到了积极作用,同时也严重污染了环境。文章分析我国在利用FDI过程中出现的环境方面的问题,有针对性地提出一系列措施和建议。     

American and Japanese management practices in their Singapore subsidiaries

Multinational corporations have made significant contributions to the economic growth of Singapore; American and Japanese companies are among those in the forefront. This study is aimed at finding the extent to which US and Japanese companies have transferred and implemented the management practices in their subsidiaries operating in Singapore. Extensive and intensive interviews of a small sample of companies in the electronic/electrical industry reveal that the Japanese are not practising what they do in Japan while the Americans have demonstrated that the transferability of their management practices is feasible and they are workable in Singapore.Joseph M. Putti is an Associate Professor at the School of Management, National University of Singapore. Thomas Chong F.H. is a Production Manager in Union Carbide, Singapore.     

Government regulation, corruption, and FDI

We analyze favors as utilization of informal modes of exchange within a formal economy, relating their negative aspects to corruption. This exercise enables us to integrate them into a model linking national institutional factors to the magnitude of cross-country FDI flows. In our empirical tests of FDI inflows in 55 countries across four distinct time periods, we find that the level of economic regulation is a major determinant of the extent of FDI inflows as well as the level of corruption, but corruption does not have an independent influence on levels of FDI inflows. Our results have important policy implications regarding the role of the state in influencing the location decisions of MNEs.     

我国企业FDI路径选择与“差异化的同时并进”模式

中国企业在跨国发展中应该如何走出去、走到哪里,是研究者和实践者共同关注的问题。本文从顺梯度和逆梯度FDI的对比分析和相关理论阐述中,剖析了中国企业在海外投资流向上的难与易问题的实质和两者之间的时空关系,进而提出综合了现行的先难后易和先易后难两种路径选择的一种新型的跨国企业FDI模式,即差异化的同时并进模式。在引入卓越中心概念来界定新FDI模式的内涵后,具体从四个方面对其独特性进行了阐释。     

信息成本、集聚经济与中国外商投资区位

本文采用系统的数据和计量模型方法，探讨了信息成本和集聚经济对中国外商投资区位选择的影响。认为外商在华直接投资行为面临诸多信息不对称和外部不确定性。外商直接投资的区位决策是对信息成本和集聚经济的理性反映。分析结果表明，外商在华直接投资的区位选择取决于信息成本和集聚经济变量。此外，人力资本也是重要的区位因素。     

Forecasting volatility in the Singapore stock market

Volatility forecasting is a major area in the pricing of derivative securities, such as stock and index options. In this paper, we compare three methods of forecasting volatility. These are the naive method based on historical sample variance, the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) method, and the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. Out-of-sample forecasts of monthly return variances generated by these three methods are compared. The results strongly favour the EWMA method.The authors are from the Department of Economics and Statistics, National University of Singapore and the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation respectively. The views expressed in this paper are entirely personal, and do not represent those of any institution.     

Economic and strategic considerations surrounding Chinese FDI in the United States

The growth of outward investment from China has generated expressions of concern from policymakers in the United States regarding the economic and national security impacts of such investments. While inward foreign direct investment (FDI) has come to be viewed by most observers as generally imparting net economic benefits to the host economy, acquisitions of US companies by Chinese multinational companies (MNCs) have been criticized on several grounds. One is based on the mode of entry itself: some critics believe that entry by acquisition brings lower benefits than greenfield entry. A second and more prominent concern is that acquisitions of US companies by Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) may be motivated by non-commercial objectives which, in turn, make those acquisitions of questionable value to the host economy. In this paper, we argue that Chinese FDI in the United States is more likely to take the form of acquisitions than greenfield investments for the foreseeable future. However, there is no strong case to be made that the host country economic benefits from Chinese FDI would be larger if entry took place primarily through greenfield investments. Furthermore, most of the alleged costs to the US economy from inward FDI from China are either unlikely to occur or are already anticipated by existing US laws and regulations, thus necessitating no additional, specific legislation.

FDI对中国工业增长和技术进步的贡献

本文以实证分析为主，描述、分析了FDI对中国工业增长的重要贡献。外商直接投资的重要作用，体现在提供资金来源、改善投资效益、扩大产出、增加利税、引进先进技术、提升人力资源等许多方面。本文分别对上述方面进行描述和分析。结论是，外资经济不仅推动着中国工业的持续增长，而且改变着中国工业增长的方式，提高了中国工业增长的质量。     

外商直接投资对我国汽车工业的影响分析

一、我国汽车工业吸收外商直接投资的现状１．总体状况至１９９８年底,我国汽车工业共建立了４００余家合资企业①（有些企业属于兼营,因此难以将其明确地划入汽车工业）,其中各类汽车生产企业５０余家,主要总成及零部件企业约２４０多家,其他服务、咨询类企业４０多家。吸收外资协议金额２６亿美元,实际到位金额２２亿美元。投资外商来自２０多个国家和地区。通过直接利用外资,引进技术３００余项,其中整车２６项,发动机、变速箱、车身等主要总成２５项,零部件１５３项,工艺、研究开发等７９项。３００余家汽车工业的重点企业,…