地方金融发展能够影响FDI的区位选择吗?——一个基于城市商业银行设立的准自然实验

本文以城市商业银行的设立为自然实验,结合1990-2015年中国295个地级市数据以及成立的184家城市商业银行,运用双重差分方法系统考察了地方金融机构对FDI区位选择的影响。研究表明,城市商业银行的成立显著促进了城市FDI的流入;经过一系列稳健性检验和进行倾向得分匹配(PSM)估计之后,这一结论依然成立。结合企业数据证实城商行的设立提升了企业从银行获得贷款的可能性,能够通过缓解企业融资约束而影响FDI的区位分布。对城商行兼并和异地扩张行为的进一步分析表明:城商行经营规模的扩张,无论是对属地还是异地城市FDI的促进作用均不明显,而城商行资金规模的扩张对FDI有明显促进作用。这些发现将为我国完善金融体系和升级银行业结构、吸引FDI促进区域经济协调发展提供理论和经验支持。     

商业银行吸收存款能力、发行理财及其经济后果研究

本文分析了商业银行吸收存款能力和发行理财产品的关系及其经济后果。本文发现商业银行吸收存款能力越弱,通过理财产品募集资金越多,理财产品收益率越高。具体来说,非四大国有银行,通过理财产品募集资金越多,理财产品收益率越高;银行的网点数量越少,通过理财产品募集资金越多,理财产品的收益率越高;银行所在地区贷存比越高,通过理财产品募集资金越多,理财产品收益率越高;银行所在地区的金融机构密度越大,通过理财募集资金越多,理财产品收益率越高。进一步研究发现,非保本理财产品加大了银行经营业绩波动,从而增大了银行经营风险。     

International investment in financial services

This paper analyzes and models the significant components of international trade in financial services, namely, foreign direct investment in banking for the US, the UK and Germany. It distinguishes between banks' activities abroad and FDI in banking by banks and non-banks. A model for FDI in banking is proposed which contains certain explanatory variables peculiar to FDI in banking as compared to FDI in manufacturing. The components of the model of FDI in banking is different from those models designed to explain banks activities abroad. The empirical results of this study of FDI in banking indicate that bilateral trade, banks' foreign assets, the cost of capital, relative economic growth, exchange rates and FDI in non-finance industries are the major determinants of foreign investment in banking.     

基于动态因子Copula模型的我国银行系统性风险度量

本文基于2007年至2019年我国14家上市银行的股票收益率,构建偏态t-分布动态因子Copula模型,利用时变荷载因子刻画单家银行与整个系统的相关性,计算联合风险概率作为系统性风险整体水平的度量,基于关联性视角提出了新的单家机构系统脆弱性和系统重要性度量指标——系统脆弱性程度和系统重要性程度。该方法充分考虑了银行个体差异性和系统的内在关联性以及收益率的厚尾性和非对称性,从而能够捕捉到更多的信息且兼具时效性。研究表明:银行机构在风险聚集时期相关程度更大,联合风险概率能够准确识别出系统性风险事件且在我国推行宏观审慎评估体系以后有明显降低;整体而言,大型商业银行系统重要性水平最高,同时风险抗压能力也最强;本文使用的度量方法降低了数据获取成本且更具时效性,有助于为宏观审慎差异化监管工作提供借鉴和参考。     

基于动态因子Copula模型的我国银行系统性风险度量

本文基于2007年至2019年我国14家上市银行的股票收益率,构建偏态t-分布动态因子Copula模型,利用时变荷载因子刻画单家银行与整个系统的相关性,计算联合风险概率作为系统性风险整体水平的度量,基于关联性视角提出了新的单家机构系统脆弱性和系统重要性度量指标——系统脆弱性程度和系统重要性程度。该方法充分考虑了银行个体差异性和系统的内在关联性以及收益率的厚尾性和非对称性,从而能够捕捉到更多的信息且兼具时效性。研究表明:银行机构在风险聚集时期相关程度更大,联合风险概率能够准确识别出系统性风险事件且在我国推行宏观审慎评估体系以后有明显降低;整体而言,大型商业银行系统重要性水平最高,同时风险抗压能力也最强;本文使用的度量方法降低了数据获取成本且更具时效性,有助于为宏观审慎差异化监管工作提供借鉴和参考。     

Value creation in banking through strategic alliances and joint ventures

A large number of studies (DeYoung et al., 2009) analyze merger outcomes in the financial industry, while other forms of business cooperation are still poorly investigated. Our paper examines results of strategic alliances and joint ventures in European and US banking over the period 1999–2009. First, we estimate abnormal returns around the deal announcement date and then these are regressed on a large set of explanatory variables. We show that joint ventures create shareholder value when involving non-banking financial partners and allowing banks to expand abroad, while international strategic alliances tend to destroy shareholder value.     

Financial Modernization in US Banking Markets: A Local or Global Event?

Abstract:   We test the hypothesis that the passage of the Financial Services Modernization Act (FSMA) of 1999 has spillover effects cross‐nationally, using a sample of US, non‐US transactional (Australian, Canadian, and UK), and relationship (German, Japanese, Dutch, and Swiss) banks. Our results suggest that financial modernization in the US has limited cross‐national effects. We find strong evidence that US banks were affected favorably. Although we detect some evidence of significant reactions by banks in certain countries, a closer examination reveals that the reaction is most likely attributable to events in the respective countries during the event period. We do find, however, that non‐US transactional banks have been more likely to elect financial holding company status compared to relationship banks, suggesting they are positioning themselves to exploit the expanded opportunity set created by the FSMA. Nonetheless, the majority of elections have been made by US banks. In general, the results suggest that the respective banking markets are efficient in filtering events that are largely country‐specific with only limited implications for other international banks.     

Competition and innovation: Evidence from financial services

This paper presents new evidence on the relationship between competition and innovation by extending previous literature from manufacturing to financial services. We introduce a new measure of overall innovation by estimating and enveloping annual minimum cost frontiers to create a global frontier. The distance to the global frontier constitutes each bank’s technology gap, which decreases if the bank manages to innovate. Our innovation measure enables us to derive and estimate the model of Aghion et al. (2005b) at the firm level for the US banking industry. Based on individual bank Call Report data for the period 1984–2004, consistent with theoretical and empirical work by Aghion et al., we find evidence of an inverted-U relationship between competition and innovation that is robust over several different specifications. Further evidence on major structural changes in the US banking industry indicates that banks moved beyond their optimal innovation level and that interstate banking deregulation resulted in lower bank innovation. Policy implications to financial reform and prudential regulation are discussed also.     

Restructuring the Japanese banking system Has Japan gone far enough?

The resolution of the Japanese banking crisis has been identified as a critical factor affecting the health of the global economy. Massive restructuring must be undertaken to improve the health of Japanese financial system. We provide evidence that the Japanese banking system has begun to restructure in light of recent financial deregulation. In particular, failures, mergers and other forms of restructuring are now underway. However, Japanese banks still must overcome serious obstacles to regain their place among the world's best financial institutions.     

The Association Between Market and Exchange Rate Risks and Accounting Variables: A GARCH Model of the Japanese Banking Institutions

This study has two purposes. First, it estimates the market, interest rate, and exchange rate sensitivities (betas) of the Japanese banking institutions. Second, it investigates the relationship between the market-based measures of risk and accounting-based financial ratios. We extend the literature in three important ways. First, we employ a multi-factor GARCH model to estimate the betas. This framework incorporates non-linearities in the bank stock return modeling and allows for time-varying risk premia. Second, we investigate the determinants of market and exchange rate risk in terms of bank financial ratios. To this end, we regress the beta measures derived from the GARCH model against the corporate decision variables to determine the direction and the magnitude of the impact of the latter on the market and exchange rate risk exposures. Third, by using data on the Japanese banking institutions, we provide a comparison of the bank interest rate and exchange rate sensitivities and the strength of the links between the risk measure and the corporate decision variables between the U.S. and the Japanese banking institutions. This comparison sheds light on the robustness of the results concerning interest rate and exchange rate risk, and their determinants, across the two countries. Several interesting results are obtained. First, empirical results indicate that interest rate is only occasionally significant while market and exchange rate variables are significant for all the banks in the sample. Second, market and exchange rate risk measures do impound information in the financial ratios with the explanatory power of the market beta model being higher than that of the exchange rate beta model. Third, the association of the market-based risk measures and the financial ratios is weaker for the Japanese banks than those found for their U.S. counterparts in the existing literature.JEL Classification: G21, F37     

Measuring systemic importance of financial institutions: An extreme value theory approach

This paper proposes a set of market-based measures on the systemic importance of a financial institution or a group of financial institutions, each designed to capture different aspects of systemic importance of financial institutions. Multivariate extreme value theory approach is used to estimate these measures. Using six big Canadian banks as the proxy for Canadian banking sector, we apply these measures to identify systemically important banks in Canadian banking sector and major risk contributors from international financial institutions to Canadian banking sector. The empirical evidence reveals that (i) the top three banks, RBC Financial Group, TD Bank Financial Group, and Scotiabank, are more systemically important than other banks, while we also find that the size of a financial institution should not be considered as a proxy of systemic importance; (ii) compared to the European and Asian banks, the crashes of the U.S. banks, on average, are the most damaging to Canadian banking sector, while the risk contribution to the Canadian banking sector from Asian banks is quite lower than that from banks in the U.S. and euro area; (iii) the risk contribution to Canadian banking sector exhibits “home bias”, that is, cross-country risk contribution tends to be smaller than domestic risk contribution.     

系统重要性银行监管改革进展及对我国的启示

近年来,随着我国银行市场的逐步开放,大型商业银行持续开展综合经营业务,银行在金融体系中的系统重要性不断增强.银行集团的快速发展推动了银行机构与其他类型金融机构、金融市场间的组织融合和业务交叉,同时也对集团风险管理和银行监管制度带来较大冲击.金融稳定理事会、巴塞尔银行监管委员会提出的系统重要性银行评估方法和额外资本要求,以及美国、英国、欧盟对系统重要性银行的监管改革经验做法,对完善我国银行监管制度具有重要的启示意义.     

Diversification and Performance in Banking: The Israeli Case

This paper analyzes performance and portfolio choice of banks investments across business units using methodologies developed mainly for equity investments. The backgrounds to the paper are major recent developments in the financial services industry, mainly consolidation in the banking industry that raised the issue of efficiency gains due to diversification. The paper focuses on banks in Israel as an extended case study, using the fact that Israeli banks have operated as (limited) universal banks for a long time. The results suggest that there are gains to diversification and that risk adjusted performance is mostly consistent with optimal portfolio choice. Most of the previous research in this area has been done in the US. These studies necessarily focused on hypothetical combinations of different business activities because of the legal limits on US banks. Thus this paper adds to the literature both by examining actual combinations and looking at another country.     

Determinants of US investment in real estate abroad

The purpose of this paper is to analyse and discuss those factors which are contributing to the expansion of US FDI in real estate. The empirical results of this model of FDI in real estate show that as US foreign financial liabilities increase, there is an accompanying increase in its FDI in real estate. This result is consistent with the study by Russekh, F., Ruffin, R., 1986. The role of foreign direct investment in US capital flows. Am. Econ. Rev. 76, 1127–1130, who showed that US FDI abroad is a substitute for US financial assets. Furthermore, the empirical results indicate that as returns from the US stock market decline, there are more incentives for US investors to invest in foreign real estate. The empirical results also show that US financial wealth, US FDI in manufacturing and banking and US bilateral trade contribute positively to the expansion of US FDI in real estate.     

The future and dynamics of global systemically important banks

The purpose of this paper is to analyse some of the issues associated with supervision and regulation of global systemically important banks, G-SIB. The paper highlights the importance of managing liquidity risk and creating a global financial system that can minimise regulatory arbitrage by large financial institutions. The paper argues that, unlike some industries such as the airline industry in which risk has been contained and yet the size and capacity of aircrafts have increased, in the banking system, less progress has been made to contain financial risk and allow large banks to expand their global activities. The paper argues that G-SIB are able to continue remaining large provided that a globally integrated financial system ensures effective global supervision of these large banks. The paper compares the US banking crises in the 19th century and the subsequent emergence of the US Federal Reserve System to the possibility of establishing a world central bank and a global supervisory board. Such new global institutions will have the capacity to reduce regulatory arbitrage, increase effective supervision, reduce systemic and liquidity risk and create a more stable global financial system.     

改进的效率测算模型、影子银行与中国商业银行效率

商业银行及其效率的高低是金融供给侧结构性改革的关键环节,而可以压缩的“坏”投入和影子银行对商业银行效率产生重要影响。本文首次建立理论模型并分析影子银行影响商业银行效率的路径;方法上,同时区分投入和产出的“好”或“坏”,拓展只区分产出的“好”或“坏”的效率测算模型;实证上,首次测算并分析“坏”投入、影子银行业务对商业银行利润、风险和效率的影响。结果表明:理论上,影子银行会同时增加风险承担和利润,但无法确定经风险调整后的利润增加能否提升效率;只区分产出的模型高估了效率,尤其是显著高估四大行和股份制商业银行第一阶段的效率,大型商业银行依靠网点的扩张不利于效率的提升;影子银行业务提升了四大国有银行尤其是股份制银行的效率,但对中小型商业银行效率影响较小。总的来看,压缩“坏”投入和规范影子银行是增加有效金融供给、优化金融供给结构和提升银行效率的重要途径。     

Aspects of international financial services

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the issues related to international financial services, particularly foreign direct investment in banking. The paper discusses the challenges of measuring incomes generated from the activities of multinational banks, including their international lending and direct investment in host countries. The paper highlights the complementary role of FDI and trade in financial services and discusses investment in banking services. The patterns of FDI in banking in Eastern European countries, Latin America and East Asia are also analysed with a focus on the costs and benefits of FDI in banking in the emerging countries.     

数字时代的银行业变迁——网点布局与行业结构

数字技术可以帮助市场主体重构组织模式,数字经济时代的金融业也因此迎来变革。本文基于2014年至2019年我国县级行政区数据,研究发现,数字金融的发展显著减缓了我国银行业金融机构实体网点的扩张势头,这种效应主要体现在股份制商业银行和城市商业银行上,并主要影响这两类银行的基层机构。同时,我们发现数字金融的发展加快了农村合作金融机构的转型和网点退出,但对国有“六大行”没有显著影响。进一步研究发现,数字金融的影响效果会随着经济发展程度提高和地区金融可得性增加而增强,但随着在位银行的市场势力提升而下降。本文为理解数字经济时代银行业的变迁提供了一定参考。     

Determinants of information technology investments: The case of ATM in an emerging economy

This paper examines the determinants of automatic teller machine (ATM), a kind of information technology (IT), in the Taiwanese banking industry. The lessons learned from Taiwan's banking industry can be applied to China's banking industry to facilitate the understanding of the IT adoption strategies of Chinese financial institutions. Factors that are expected to have impact on IT investment in general and on ATM investment in particular are identified from three perspectives, namely operating scale perspective, deposit service perspective, and operating cost perspective. The results of this study indicate that operating scale, banking deposit service and operating cost are all significant determinants of ATM investment in the Taiwan banking industry. The results are useful for those banks and financial institutions outside of China in deciding their ATM investment strategies in China when trying to enter and penetrate the Chinese banking market.     

The Impact of Bank and Non-Bank Financial Institutions on Local Economic Growth in China

This paper provides evidence on the relationship between finance and growth in a fast growing country, such as China. Employing data of 27 Chinese provinces over the period 1995–2003, we study whether the financial development of two different types of financial institutions — banks and non-banks — have a (significantly different) impact on local economic growth. Our findings indicate that banking development shows a statistically significant and economically more pronounced impact on local economic growth.