Motivating energy suppliers to promote energy conservation

We examine the design of regulatory policy to induce electric utilities to deliver the surplus-maximizing level of energy efficiency services, $e^{*}$ . The rebound effect (whereby increased energy efficiency stimulates the demand for energy) typically renders revenue decoupling insufficient in this regard. The additional financial incentive required to induce $e^{*}$ is shown to vary with such factors as the prevailing price of energy, the magnitude of the rebound effect, the extent of observable energy efficiency investments, and the utility’s objective.     

Forecasting the optimal cost of energy conservation by sectors to the year 2000

This paper suggests that government policies to induce or mandate energy conservation across sectors should be based on cost-effective measures. Section 2 outlines the concept of cost-effectiveness by sector according to the marginal cost MC of conservation and the aggregation of the MC curves in a horizontally added aggregate marginal cost curve AMC or the supply curve for conservation. It also outlines a methodology of estimating MC (in constant prices) by regressing total cost of conservation on total energy conserved. Empirical estimation of the MC in the residential sector is attempted in Section 3 by developing data for annualized cost of conservation capital stocks and the related energy savings. The regression of total residential energy conservation costs on total conservation provided the MC at $0.84 per million Btu (MM Btu) to the year 2000. Section 4 used time-series data for the commercial sector and obtained the MC at $0.17/MM Btu for 1980–2000. The MC of conservation in the industrial sector is estimated in Section 5 at $0.78/MM Btu for 1985–2000. In section 6, we estimate the MC in the transportation sector at $2.42/MM Btu for 1980–2000. The last section summarizes the approach and conclusions and recommends that the cost-effectiveness approach dictates that the order of priority for inducing or mandating conservation should be from the commercial to the industrial, to the residential and followed by the transportation sector for the next 20 years.     

Designing an optimal contest

The paper brings a mechanism design perspective to the study of contests. We consider the problem of selecting a contest success function when the contest designer may also value the prize. We show that any equilibrium outcome that can be achieved by a concave increasing contest success function can be replicated by a linear contest success function. An expected utility maximizing designer should employ a linear homogeneous contest success function. We explicitly derive the optimal contest for a risk-neutral designer and present comparative statics results. Tullock's contest is optimal only when the designer's valuation for the prize is low.     

Characterization of optimal plans for stochastic dynamic programs

This paper provides general techniques for the characterization of optimal plans resulting from stochastic dynamic programming. We show that under standard assumptions the optimal plans in both finite and infinite horizon problems can be obtained by an application of the Implicit Function Theorem to first order conditions. Further, we show that under certain checkable conditions, optimal plans and value functions are p-times differentiable for any integer p ? 0. Finally, we apply our technique to obtain a C^p plan and value function in a one sector infinite horizon growth problem under uncertainty.     

On an optimal consumption problem for p-integrable consumption plans

A generalization is presented of the existence results for an optimal consumption problem of Aumann and Perles [4] and Cox and Huang [10]. In addition, we present a very general optimality principle. Received: July 14, 1999; revised version: September 9, 1999     

建筑节能的挑战与机遇

按照国际惯例，建筑能耗是指建筑使用过程中的能耗，包括采暧、空调、照明、热水、炊事、家用电器及其它动力的能耗。其中，以采暖和空调能耗为主，占建筑总能耗的50～70％。根据建筑物类型，建筑物能耗可分为民用建筑（住宅）能耗、公共建筑（或称为商业建筑，包括办公楼、宾馆、商店、学校、医院等）能耗及其它建筑能耗。在发达国家，建筑能耗一般占全国总能耗的30％～40％。     

Residential energy use and conservation: Economics and demographics

Energy consumption in the residential sector offers an important opportunity for conserving resources. However, much of the current debate regarding energy efficiency in the housing market focuses on the physical and technical determinants of energy consumption, neglecting the role of the economic behavior of resident households. In this paper, we analyze the extent to which the use of gas and electricity is determined by the technical specifications of the dwelling as compared to the demographic characteristics of the residents. Our analysis is based on a sample of more than 300,000 Dutch homes and their occupants. The results indicate that residential gas consumption is determined principally by structural dwelling characteristics, such as the vintage, building type, and characteristics of the dwelling, while electricity consumption varies more directly with household composition, in particular income and family composition. Combining these results with projections on future economic and demographic trends, we find that, even absent price increases for residential energy, the aging of the population and their increasing wealth will roughly offset improvements in the energy efficiency of the building stock resulting from policy interventions and natural revitalization.     

Forecasting the economic,energy, and environmental impacts of national energy plans, 1990–2000

The objective of this article is to project the energy, economic, and environmental trade-offs to the year 2000 of President Carter's energy policies. It compares the trade-offs resulting from the National Energy Act of 1978 (NEA) with those from the synfuels strategy of July 1979. A hybrid model is used that consistently links the interindustry forecasting model of the University of Maryland (INFORUM) and the strategic environmental assessment system model (SEAS) with the FOSSIL 79 and ECONOMY 1 models. The study concludes that both these scenarios will a) reduce the growth rate of the economy, b) increase investment at the expense of consumption, and c) develop energy resources but d) deteriorate the quality of the environment in the Mountain States. In particular, in the synfuels scenario, compared with the base case, the study concludes that in the year 2000 energy consumption will increase from 94 to 95 quads, the GNP will decrease from $1.95 to $1.94 trillion, and in the Mountain States the particulates will increase by 67%, sulfur dioxides will increase by 10%, and nitrogen oxides will increase by 40%.     

Biodiversity value and the optimal location of forest conservation sites in Southern Finland

Safeguarding biodiversity has been one of the most important issues in environmental and forest policies since the 1990s. In Southern Finland, decisions concerning further actions for the preservation of forest biodiversity will be made in the coming years. To support policy making, we present a multi-regional model that is applicable in determining the economically optimal regional allocation of conservation sites. Three habitat quality models are evaluated to calculate habitat quality indices used as a surrogate for a biodiversity value in a forest sector model. The scenarios presented provide information about the economic impacts of conservation choices on the forest sector. The overall economic impacts of conservation depend on its scale and regional allocation. Conserving land with high biodiversity value can have less adverse impact on the forest sector than conservation of typical commercial forest sites. When optimizing conservation set-asides, we found that set-asides targeted to certain regions possessing higher/lower than average relative share of ecologically valuable land, caused lower/higher adverse economic impacts on the forest sector. Because it is expensive to search land suitable for conservation, these regions could be respectively favoured/avoided when asking forest owners to offer their land for the new conservation program in Southern Finland, which will be based on voluntariness.     

The prospects of energy conservation: A different approach to the fuel demand for space heating

Zusammenfassung Die meisten empirischen Untersuchungen über das Ausmaß der jüngsten Energieeinsparungen verwendeten ökonometrische Beziehungen und Elastizitäten. Diese Arbeit jedoch geht von einer technischen Beschreibung des Services thermische Behaglichkeit aus. Basierend auf empirischem Datenmaterial über die Infrastruktur und das Klima der Stadt Wien werden sowohl die Aussichten und das Potential an Energieeinsparungen quantifiziert als auch der Effekt spezifischer Politiken. Für diesen Zweck wurde ein nichtlineares Optimierungsmodell mit disjunktiven Randbedingungen entwickelt und gelöst.

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Research leading to this paper was supported by a grant from the Austria Federal Ministry of Science and Research, and that support is gretefully acknowledged. We wish to thank P. J. Jansen for discussions on this topic and also the referees for their valuable comments on this paper.     

A review of dental plans: PPOs and referral plans to dominate future

This important benefit has changed greatly in the last 20 years. Double-digit health care cost increases in the late 1980s caused indemnity plans to evolve into network plans, such as dental HMOs and PPOs. PPOs and referral or access plans now seem to be the plans of choice.     

Intermodal traffic,regulatory change and carbon energy conservation in US freight transport

Conserving transport carbon emissions is an important policy goal. Conventional wisdom often holds that conservation is best achieved by increased regulation, and that such gains are best achieved in passenger auto transport (fuel efficiency standards or diversion to transit). We argue that the growth of rail freight has conserved carbon fuel use in the United States, and that fuel-saving changes have been facilitated by reduced regulation since 1980. Methods used include estimation of translog cost functions (and related demand functions for fuel) for intermodal rail and for truck, allowing controlled comparisons of modal fuel use. We find intermodal rail (e.g. trailer on flatcar) to be a powerful conserver: if intermodal rail were eliminated, and traffic transferred to over-the-highway truck, extra annual carbon emissions would be nearly 25?Tg. By comparison, if urban passenger transit were eliminated and replaced by autos (according to one study) the extra annual emissions would be only 3.9?Tg.     

四川地区村镇住宅的节能经济性思考

针对四川地区灾后重建的契机,以及四川省节能住宅建设的相关政策规定,探讨在生态节能住宅修建前期,要注重节能住宅成本效益分析,保证节能住宅价值实现途径中的价值链条通畅,以及从传统民居中吸取节能住宅规划、构造、材料等方面的宝贵经验,因地制宜,防止伪生态住宅的产生,保证四川地区村镇住宅的节能经济性。     

Change mechanisms in the diffusion of residential energy conservation practices: an empirical study

Four types of variables that affect the diffusion of home energy conservation measures are assessed. These variables are the information possessed by households, household attitudes, the economic and demographic characteristics of households, and the attributes of conservation measures. A causal model of behavior change is presented based on Fishbein's theory of reasoned action. The model is tested using panel data on 225 homeowners from Decatur, Illinois and two conservation practices: employing winter night-time thermostat setbacks and adding attic insulation. The results illustrate the importance of all four change mechanisms. Many nonadopters have erroneous information about the financial and other benefits of the two practices. The elderly and the poor are particularly ill-informed. Negative attitudes are closely related to discomfort (for night-time setback) and expense (for attic insulation). As expected, barriers and incentives differ across population subgroups and innovations.     

In search of a test of investor capital gain realization behavior to capital gain tax rates

Existing empirical work on the effects of taxation on the realization of capital gains does not closely conform to recent theoretical work on the same question. Methodology is proposed to provide weak tests of the theory.