Human agency and convergence: Gaus’s Kantian Parliamentarian

Public reason is justified to the extent that it uses (only) arguments, assumptions, or goals that are allowable as “public” reasons. But this exclusion requires some prior agreement on domains, and a process that disallows new unacceptable reasons by unanimous consent. Surprisingly, this problem of reconciliation is nearly the same, mutatis mutandis, as that faced by micro-economists working on general equilibrium, where a conceit—tâtonnement, directed by an auctioneer—was proposed by Leon Walras. Gaus’s justification of public reason requires the “as if” solution of a Kantian Parliamentarian, who rules on whether a proposal is “in order.” Previous work on public reason, by Rousseau, Kant, and Rawls, have all reduced decision-making and the process of “reasoning” to choice by a unitary actor, thereby begging the questions of disagreement, social choice, and reconciliation. Gaus, to his credit, solves that problem, but at the price of requiring that the process “knows” information that is in fact indiscernible to any of the participants. In fact, given the dispersed and radical situatedness of human aims and information, it is difficult for individuals, much less groups, to determine when norms are publicly justified or not. More work is required to fully take on Hayek’s insight that no person, much less all people, can have sufficient reasons to endorse the relevant norm, rule or law.     

Beyond Homo economicus: evidence from experimental economics

Environmental policies are generally based on a model of the human actor taken from neoclassical economic theory. This paper reports on laboratory experiments suggesting weaknesses in this model and describes alternative models correcting these weaknesses. One finding is that economic actors tend to be hyperbolic as opposed to exponential discounters who discount the immediate future at a higher rate than the more distant future. Another finding is that economic actors are not self-regarding, but rather in many circumstances are strong reciprocators who come to strategic interactions with a propensity to cooperate, respond to cooperative behavior by maintaining or increasing cooperation, and respond to free-riders by retaliating against the ‘offenders’, even at a personal cost, and even when there is no reasonable expectation that future personal gains will flow from such retaliation. We discuss some implications for policy analysis.     

Why England? Demographic factors, structural change and physical capital accumulation during the Industrial Revolution

Why did England industrialize first? And why was Europe ahead of the rest of the world? Unified growth theory in the tradition of Galor and Weil (2000, American Economic Review, 89, 806–828) and Galor and Moav (2002, Quartely Journal of Economics, 177(4), 1133–1191) captures the key features of the transition from stagnation to growth over time. Yet we know remarkably little about why industrialization occurred much earlier in some parts of the world than in others. To answer this question, we present a probabilistic two-sector model where the initial escape from Malthusian constraints depends on the demographic regime, capital deepening and the use of more differentiated capital equipment. Weather-induced shocks to agricultural productivity cause changes in prices and quantities, and affect wages. In a standard model with capital externalities, these fluctuations interact with the demographic regime and affect the speed of growth. Our model is calibrated to match the main characteristics of the English economy in 1700 and the observed transition until 1850. We capture one of the key features of the British Industrial Revolution emphasized by economic historians — slow growth of output and productivity. Fertility limitation is responsible for higher per capita incomes, and these in turn increase industrialization probabilities. The paper also explores the availability of nutrition for poorer segments of society. We examine the influence of redistributive institutions such as the Old Poor Law, and find they were not decisive in fostering industrialization. Simulations using parameter values for other countries show that Britain’s early escape was only partly due to chance. France could have moved out of agriculture and into manufacturing faster than Britain, but the probability was less than 25%. Contrary to recent claims in the literature, 18th century China had only a minimal chance to escape from Malthusian constraints.     

Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia

Events surrounding the global financial and economic crises of 2008 and 2009 have sparked a renewed interest in discretionary fiscal policy. This article considers whether private saving in Australia behaves in a manner that is consistent with Ricardian equivalence, thus mitigating the effects of fiscal policy, or conversely, if fiscal policy has some ability to influence the real economy. Results indicate that, while there is not a full Ricardian response to changes in the fiscal stance, there is some partial offsetting behaviour—implying that fiscal policy does elicit some (limited) impact on economic activity.     

The spatial component of R&D networks

We study the role of geography in R&D networks by means of a quantitative, micro-geographic approach. Using a large database that covers international R&D collaborations from 1984 to 2009, we localize each actor precisely in space through its latitude and longitude. This allows us to analyze the R&D network at all geographic scales simultaneously. Our empirical results show that despite the high importance of the city level, transnational R&D collaborations at large distances are much more frequent than expected from similar networks. This provides evidence for the ambiguity of distance in economic collaboration which is also suggested by the existing literature. In addition we test whether the hypothesis of local buzz and global pipelines applies to the observed R&D network by calculating well-defined metrics from network theory.     

Institutionalized Consumption Patterns in Underdeveloped Countries

In matters of public policy, economists often design incentives and constraints so that economic actors with unrestricted preferences (including the self-interested motivations of homo economicus) will implement socially desired allocations. This paradigm, which dates to Machiavelli, contrasts sharply with an earlier approach, initiated by Aristotle, in which good governance entailed the cultivation of good citizens. Modern mechanism design, contract theory, and behavioral economics provide a critical perspective on the Machiavellian paradigm, and suggest a reformulation along more Aristotelian lines.     

The Economics of Social Interactions: An Interdisciplinary Ground for Social Scientists?

Social interaction models, i.e. the changing sequence of actions between individuals who modify their behavior under the influence of their peers, have rarely enjoyed as high a profile in economic analysis as they do today. However, the literature growth has not been accompanied by a process of academic consolidation. The difficulties encountered in research are largely but not entirely the result of data constraints. The main argument of this article is that the source of problems may be traceable to the lack of a complementary approach between economics and other disciplines. The difficulties presented by the deficit in academic exchange among social scientists are compounded by the current analytical framework, which still concentrates on the fundamental, but mutually exclusive, traditions of thought: homo oeconomicus and homo sociologicus. In spotlighting these ideas, this article reviews the economic body of literature on social interactions and their effect on individual unemployment status. Two directions in current research are analyzed: the impact of social (work) norms on unemployment and the role of social networks in the job search process. The theoretical and methodological challenges encountered in research suggest that the future of social interactions models might be found at the crossroads of economics and other social sciences.     

How should emerging economies float their currencies?

Floating exchange rates seem to be gaining ground in Latin America, East Asia and the transition economies. The recent crises left many economies with no alternative but to float. Others have moved toward floating, searching for greater flexibility and insulation from external shocks. The question for most emerging market economies, then, is no longer to float or not to float, but how to float. Four issues arise in this regard. The first is how to float and have low inflation. The second is whether floating provides as much insulation as conventional theory predicts, especially in the presence of dollarized liabilities. Which leads to the third point: the relationship between the stability of the exchange rate and that of the financial system. The fourth is how to conduct monetary policy under a float, and the role of inflation targeting. We consider each of these points in turn, and conclude that a workable model of how to float seems to be emerging from the so‐far successful experience of countries like Chile and Brazil. It involves the adoption of an inflation target as the main anchor for monetary policy, coupled with a monetary policy reaction function that — aside from reacting to the output gap and other determinants of the inflation rate — reacts also partially to movements in the nominal exchange rate. JEL classification: F3, F4, E4, E5     

The economic constitution of the European community: From Rome to Maastricht

The present paper analyzes the changes in the economic constitution of the European Community since its foundation in 1958. In order to identify the various changes, we start by developing a frame of reference. Our proposition is that theconstitutional charter of the European Economic Community (EEC)—the EEC Treaty—came closest to this frame of reference, being an economic constitution for a market system, whereas the subsequentprocess of European integration—including several modifications of the Treaty—was largely based on the introduction of non-market elements. Our argument is that as far as the economic constitution is concerned, the Treaty of Maastricht is dominated by traits which are characteristic of modern welfare states.     

Income inequality and economic incentives: Is there an equity–efficiency tradeoff?

What is the basis and direction of relationship between income inequality and economic growth? The equity versus efficiency dictum which predicts a positive relationship between inequality, capital formation, and real GDP growth—emphasizes the importance of economic incentives. Subsequently, this was challenged by the incomplete markets and political outcomes theories, because of increasing empirical evidence of an inverse relationship between income inequality and economic growth. In this paper, we offer a further explanation of the basis and nature of the inequality–capital–growth relationship which emphasizes the divergence between savings and investment. For the United States over the period 1970–2006, we have found no empirical evidence for the support of the equity versus efficiency hypothesis—that economic incentives are necessary for capital accumulation and growth. In fact, it was discovered that in most cases, inequality has had little or no impact on movements in the US capital stock, net investment, and consequently, economic growth. Another interesting finding of this study was that inequality exhibits hysteresis—implying that any positive shock, such as the dot-com boom, can lead to persistent and enduring increases in inequality.     

What economic agents do: How cognition and interaction lead to emergence and complexity

Kohn (The Cato Journal, 24(3):303–339, 2004) has argued that the neoclassical conception of economics—what he terms the “value paradigm”—has experienced diminishing marginal returns for some time. He suggests a new perspective is emerging—one that gives more import to economic processes and less to end states, one that bases behavior less on axioms and more on laboratory experiments. He calls this the “exchange paradigm”. He further asserts that it is the mathematization of economics that is partially at fault for leading the profession down a methodological path that has become something of a dead end. Here I suggest that the nascent research program Kohn has rightly spotted is better understood as distinct from its precursors because it is intrinsically dynamic, permits agent actions out of equilibrium, and treats such actions as occurring within networks. Analyzing economic processes having these characteristics is mathematically very difficult and I concur with Kohn’s appeal to computational approaches. However, I claim it is so-called multi-agent systems and agent-based models that are the way forward within the “exchange paradigm,” and not the cellular automata (Wolfram, A new kind of science, 2002) that Kohn seems to promote. Agent systems are generalizations of cellular automata and support the natural abstraction of individual economic agents as software agents.     

Relative and absolute scarcity of nature. Assessing the roles of economics and ecology for biodiversity conservation

Our aim in this essay is to identify and analyze some of the difficulties with interdisciplinary integration of economic and ecological contributions to the study of biodiversity loss. We develop our analysis from a widely accepted definition of economics which is based on the concept of scarcity. Taking a closer look at this notion, we find that economics actually limits itself to a very particular aspect of scarcity, which we denote as relative scarcity. We describe in what respect the economic approach towards biodiversity is based on this notion, and also reflect on the specific understanding of the relation of humans and nature behind the economic approach. We then turn to absolute scarcity as another notion of scarcity, and show that this is not within the scope of economics, but has been a theme of ecology and ecological economics. We describe in which way ecological and ecological–economic approaches towards biodiversity are based on the idea of absolute scarcity, and also reflect on the specific understanding of the human–nature relationship behind this notion of scarcity. Against this background, we discuss the roles of economics and ecology for nature conservation. We conclude that the interdisciplinary integration of ecology and economics requires a philosophical underpinning, and suggest a framework for further research.     

The sources and aims of innovation in services: Variety between and within sectors

Services dominate economic activity, but remain under-researched by analysts of innovation and technological change. The early 'one size fits all' theories of innovation in services have in recent years given way to an appreciation that services are diverse, not least in their innovation activities. This paper draws on recent empirical evidence from large-scale surveys undertaken in 13 western European countries, to investigate the extent and the sources of innovation in five services sectors. The analysis includes the extent to which services innovate, and amongst innovators the extent to which they engage in R&D and collaborative arrangements for innovation. The analysis supports the recent literature which emphasises significant differences between sectors in their pattern of innovation behaviour, but also highlights significant intra-sectoral differences in innovation behaviour. This intra-sectoral variation deserves much fuller investigation in the future.     

Alternative econometric approaches for studying the link between economic systems and economic outcomes

Econometric studies on the link between economic systems and economic outcomes have relied on two approaches. In the forecasting approach an estimated relationship for Western countries is used to generate hypothetical outcomes for Eastern countries, which are then compared to actual outcomes. In the dummy-variable approach a single relationship is estimated for Eastern and Western countries, using dummy variables to test for differences in Eastern and Western performance. The forecasting approach is shown as flawed; a more complete version of the dummy-variable approach is shown as far superior. A study of energy consumption in some Eastern and Western countries illustrates these approaches.     

Rational Actor Theory in Politics: A Critical Review of John Quiggin*

John Quiggin's paper attacks public-choice theory. among other things, for its us? of the assumption of ‘rational egoism’. The object of our response is twofold. First. to distinguish egoism from rationality, and to indicate that rationality postulates, when faithfully applied, provide reasons for believing that political behaviour and market behaviour will be systematically different, and specifically that the former will be less egoistic than the latter. Second, to indicate that comparative static propasitions in public-choice theory (and in economics more generally) can be sustained on rather weaker behavioural assumptions than homo economicus embodies, and that consequently some of the public-choice orthodoxy would survive any attack on the egoism assumption.     

Coding economic dynamics to represent regime dynamics. A teach-yourself exercise

Much of the recent economic history of various countries, regions and/or sectors in the world economy can usefully be reconstructed as sequences of repeated, basically endogenously induced, changes of growth regimes. Coded dynamics (CD) is proposed hereafter as the appropriate tool for the analysis of such multi-regime dynamics, i.e. dynamics where switches between growth regimes represent structural changes, or in other words, abrupt alterations in an economy's qualitative dynamics. On a theoretical tone, one of our arguments in favor of the adoption of a CD approach derives from the lesson that can be drawn from the complex dynamics literature. Often, some form of regularity, while it cannot be found in the punctual analysis of motion across states, can be recovered from the system's dynamics over a partition of its state space. This dynamics can be represented by strings of symbols (instead of real numbers), or symbolic trajectories. The 2-fold purpose of this paper is to introduce the formalism and terminology of multi-regime dynamics, and to try our hand with the technique of coding through a set of simple exercises. In fact, we consider only cases with two and three regimes, instead of the six of the Framework Space introduced in the Preface. Via such exercises, we also trace the origins of the multi-regime framework in the tradition of classical macrodynamics.     

More than Additions to Population: The Economic and Fiscal Impact of Immigration

In the conceptual framework of the Intergenerational Reports, immigration features as an exogenous input into the size of the population and its composition by age and sex. There are good reasons for believing that immigration has sizeable endogenous components, that attributes other than age and sex distinguish immigrants from the native‐born, as well as from each other, and that these features are of significant economic and fiscal import. Last, it is suggested that, in the context of an ageing population, we may learn much about the effectiveness of different policy responses in achieving fiscal sustainability—as well as immigration policy—through a dynamic life cycle accounting approach.     

Do we reject rational expectations models too often?: Interpreting evidence using Nagar expansions

In a recent paper Mankiw and Shapiro presented Monte Carlo evidence assessing the over-rejection of the orthogonality condition which characterizes rational expectations models. The purpose of this note is two-fold — first, to construct a small sample approximation of the expected value of the t-statistic and second, to get a feeling for why the critical values obtained by MS are so disparate.     

Clusters of firms in an inhomogeneous space: The high-tech industries in Milan

Why do industrial clusters occur in space? Is it because industries need to stay close together to interact or, conversely, because they concentrate in certain portions of space to exploit favourable conditions like public incentives, proximity to communication networks, to big population concentrations or to reduce transport costs? This is a fundamental question and the attempt to answer to it using empirical data is a challenging statistical task. In economic geography scientists refer to this dichotomy using the two categories of spatial interaction and spatial reaction to common factors. In economics we can refer to a distinction between exogenous causes and endogenous effects. In spatial econometrics and statistics we use the terms of spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity. A series of recent papers introduced explorative methods to analyse the spatial patterns of firms using micro data and characterizing each firm by its spatial coordinates. In such a setting a spatial distribution of firms is seen as a point pattern and an industrial cluster as the phenomenon of extra-concentration of one industry with respect to the concentration of a benchmarking spatial distribution. Often the benchmarking distribution is that of the whole economy on the ground that exogenous factors affect in the same way all branches. Using such an approach a positive (or negative) spatial dependence between firms is detected when the pattern of a specific sector is more aggregated (or more dispersed) than the one of the whole economy. In this paper we suggest a parametric approach to the analysis of spatial heterogeneity, based on the so-called inhomogeneous K-function (Baddeley et al., 2000). We present an empirical application of the method to the spatial distribution of high-tech industries in Milan (Italy) in 2001. We consider the economic space to be non homogenous, we estimate the pattern of inhomogeneity and we use it to separate spatial heterogeneity from spatial dependence.