Social networks,mass media and public opinions

Our opinions and ideas are shaped by what our friends said and what we read or watched on mass media. In this paper, we propose a concise and analyzable model to study the effects of mass media modeled as an applied external field, and social networks on public opinions based on the multi-state voter model, and a tuned parameter can control the relative intensity of the effects of mass media and social networks. We consider a generalized scenario where there exist committed or stubborn agents in the networks whose opinions are not affected by their friends or mass media. We find that the fraction of each opinion will converge to a value which only relates to the fractions and degrees of stubborn agents, and the relative intensity between media and network effects. The final agents with media opinion, except the stubborn agents, also include the increment produced by the internal impact of social networks and that caused by the external impact of media. Interestingly the second increment is composed of two parts, one is from the media effect when there are no interactions between agents and the other is from the influence of media on agent opinions caused by social network structure. That is the interactions among agents within social networks can amplify media influence. Finally we also discuss several extensions to the dynamics model which consider more realistic scenarios.     

A market model of analysts’ opinions to explain changes in the dispersion of opinions

The demand for and supply of analysts’ opinions in this model yield an equilibrium that demonstrates how the information content of the opinions reacts to changes in exogenous parameters. The model also shows how changes in the parameters make analysts’ opinions more or less dispersed; for example, a decline in investor risk aversion, a decrease in market volatility, and an increase in information costs can lead to analysts’ opinions becoming more similar. Recognizing how exogenous factors can affect the supply and demand of analysts’ opinions gives additional insights into questions concerning what may appear to be herd behavior by analysts and also the relationship between forecast dispersion and information content. (JEL: G29, C71)     

组团式结构城市的轨道线网合理规模

本文在组团式城市空间结构及其交通特点与轨道交通功能分析基础上 ,提出了宏观定性控制与微观定量分析相结合的组团式城市轨道线网规模及线网结构的方法。     

Semiparametric analysis of clustered survival data under nonparametric frailty

In this article a novel approach to analyze clustered survival data that are subject to extravariation encountered through clustering of survival times is proposed. This is accomplished by extending the Cox proportional hazard model to a frailty model where the cluster-specific shared frailty is modeled nonparametrically. We assume a nonparametric Dirichlet process for the distribution of frailty. In such a semiparametric setup, we propose a hybrid method to draw model-based inferences. In the framework of the proposed hybrid method, the estimation of parameters is performed by implementing Monte Carlo expected conditional maximization algorithm. A simulation study is conducted to study the efficiency of our methodology. The proposed methodology is, thereafter, illustrated by a real-life data on recurrence time to infections in kidney patient.     

基于复杂网络和乘客选择理论醮长三角机场群研究

中国航空运输业正在致力于形成合理的枢纽机场和支线航空的空间布局。本文研究航空机场布局和旅客流量分布的空间不平衡性,以长江三角洲机场密集但整体效率不佳的情况为例,从复杂网络和乘客出行路径选择理论出发,建立出行路径选择优化模型,分析乘客的航空出行路线选择,利用复杂网络中的介数概念说明枢纽机场的中转服务对周边机场的抑制作用。我们采用实际的航空数据进行了计算和模拟,得到了目前长三角地区各机场的介数和带权介数,并举南京为例做了具体分析,最后对今后机场发展和空间布局建设提出了建议。     

对某市廉租房政策的另类思考

本文以某城市近期拟为低收入者大量新建廉租房的住房政策引出问题,从住宅经济学中的过滤理论和某些国家在类似住房政策实施方面的经验这两个角度出发,对此问题进行一些分析,并提出笔者的一些看法:该市此项住房政策可能导致其房地产市场的退化;造成资源的浪费;并带来许多社会问题.     

Teacher opinions regarding the perception management levels of school administrators

The purpose of this research is to determine the levels and use of perception management by school administrators. The study group consists of teachers working in Private Primary School and Secondary Schools affiliated to the Ministry of National Education in Nicosia, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in the 2016–2017 academic year. The sample of the study is composed of 282 teachers representing the universe selected by the method of easy reachable case sampling. As a means of collecting data in the survey, “Personal Information Form” by Kline (An easy guide to factor analysis, Routledge, New York, 1994) and “Manager Perception Management ent Scale” developed by Uylas (Yönetici Alg? Yönetimi Ölçe?i, Türkiye Ölçme Araçlar? Dizini, 2017a, Okul Yöneticilerinin Sosyal-Duygusal E?itim Liderli?i ve Alg? Yönetimine ?li?kin Ö?retmen Görü?leri, T.C. Abant ?zzet Baysal Üniversitesi, E?itim Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Bolu, 2017b) was used. The obtained data were analyzed in an analysis program. In the research, the values of perception management use levels of managers according to teacher opinions were examined. According to the results and comments obtained from the research, some of the proposals developed for researchers and educators working in the field of education management are as follows. Towards practical; trainings can be given on how school administrators can use perception management for successful perception management practices in educational organizations. In interviews to select school administrators, choosing school administrator with high perception management skills can be prioritized. Towards newstudies; including multidimensional evaluation of all elements of educational organizations such as managers, parents and servants in new researches to be conducted and comparison of teachers ‘and administrators’ views. This study has brought out suggestions that can be implemented in other stages of education.     

Economies of scale in networks

A network's capacity can typically be increased in a variety of ways. For example, in a highway network, existing roads can be made wider or new roads added. This paper is concerned with the determination of the degree of local economies of scale in the cost function for the outputs of a congestible network when there are multiple margins for making adjustments to capacity. The main result is that under the provision of a cost-minimizing network—one for which the sum of user and capacity costs for the network's outputs is at a minimum—the degree of local economies of scale in the cost function for the network's outputs is the same along all margins for adjusting capacity. This includes what routes to establish.     

Persistence in corporate networks

We examine the bipartite graphs of German corporate boards in 1993, 1999 and 2005, focusing on their projections onto directors (the “personal” network) and onto companies (the “institutional” network). The novel feature here is our focus on the temporal evolution of the two projections. The personal networks exhibit cores of highly central directors who are densely connected among themselves, while the institutional networks show a persistent core of large corporations whose identity remains mostly the same. This results in the persistent presence of a core network of very large corporations, despite substantial turnover in the identity of directors and significant changes in Germany’s corporate governance during the investigated period. Our findings strongly suggest that core persistence originates from the board appointment decisions of the very largest corporations and is largely independent of personal destinies.     

Does ownership structure matter when CPA deciding types of audit opinions

Ownership structure is one of the most important and basic corporate governance characteristics. Thus, does the ownership structure of a firm have an effect on the type of audit opinion it receives from CPA？ This paper uses a sample including 1246 non-financial listed companies from China A-share market in 2003. Empirical results show： for listed firms, external auditor＇s propensity to qualify is lower with lower proportion of public shares, or with higher concentration of shares at a marginal significant level. However, the proportions of state-owned shares and institutional shares have no significant effects on audit opinions. A possible explanation is that the ownership structure influences risk awareness and negotiation power of audit firms, influences negotiation power of clients, and then ultimately influences auditors＇ reporting decision and audit opinions. The potential policy implication is： a more dispersed ownership structure and/or a higher proportion of public shares are preferable for higher audit reporting conservatism and audit quality in China.     

Short-Run Dynamics in Cointegrated Systems

In this paper we build a unifying framework under which the time-domain properties of the permanent-transitory decompositions available in the literature are investigated. Starting from the state space representation of a cointegrated system expressions are derived for the (common) trends and cycles of the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition involving quantities already available from the interim multiplier representation. The cycles result from both movements along the attractor and adjustment dynamics; the latter are shown to be the transitory component of the Gonzalo–Granger decomposition. The two decompositions are equivalent when the number of common cycles and trends add up to the dimension of the system. Algorithms for the extraction of the components are given and the results are illustrated with respect to a trivariate system consisting of US per capita GNP, Private Consumption and Investment.     

Interregional Inequality Dynamics in Mexico

Abstract

This paper examines 60 years of regional income inequality dynamics across the states of Mexico. Drawing on recent developments in exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) we examine the role of spatial clustering and heterogeneity in the evolution of regional inequality. We pay particular attention to the choice of the regionalization scheme that has been applied in previous work and we suggest a number of new approaches to evaluate the sensitivity of inferential conclusions to this choice. We also investigate if temporal shifts in equality are reflected in the NAFTA era.

Dynamique de l'inégalité interrégionale au Mexique

Résumé la présente communication se penche sur la dynamique des inégalités régionales entre les revenus pendant 60 ans dans les états du Mexique. Sur la base de développements récents dans les analyses exploratoires des données spatiales (ESDA), nous examinons le rôle du groupage et de l'hétérogénéité spatiaux dans l’évolution des inégalités régionales, en nous penchant tout particulièrement sur le choix du plan de régionalisation appliqué à des travaux précédents, et en proposant un certain nombre de méthodes nouvelles pour évaluer la sensibilité de conclusions déductives sur ce choix. En outre, nous tentons d’établir si des changements temporels dans les inégalités sont reflétés dans l’ère de NAFTA.

Dinámica de la desigualdad interregional en Méjico

Extracto Este trabajo examina 60 años en la dinámica de la desigualdad regional de ingresos a través de los estados de Méjico. Haciendo uso de desarrollos recientes en el análisis exploratorio de datos espaciales (ESDA) examinamos la función del agrupamiento espacial y la heterogeneidad en la evolución de la desigualad regional. Prestamos particular atención a la elección del esquema de regionalización que se ha aplicado en trabajo anterior y sugerimos varios planteamientos nuevos para evaluar la sensibilidad de conclusiones inferenciales de esta elección. También investigamos si los cambios temporales en igualdad se reflejan en la era NAFTA (Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte).

     

Statistical analysis of change in networks

A survey is given of random graphs and random graph processes which can be used to describe and analyze networks that are changing with time. Marko-vian change over time, log-linear models for change, and conditionally uniform models for change are described. It is noted that estimation is usually complex if the random graph involves dependent dyads. Models with deterministic change over time may be a way to avoid the difficulties implied by dependent dyads. Logit regression methods are described that can be used to estimate such models.     

A critical test of the choice questionnaire for collecting informed public opinions

In the Choice Questionnaire (Neijens et al. 1992) respondents have to choose between several policy options. Within this questionnaire they are provided with information about the consequences of each option. Until now, only indirect evidence as to whether or not respondents base their preferences on the information provided was available and plausible alternative explanations for the Choice Questionnaire's effect could not be ruled out. In the present study, we demonstrate that Choice Questionnaire respondents do base their preferences on the information provided: different information resulted in significantly different choices.     

系统动力学在项目管理中的应用

针对传统项目管理方法在宏观控制方面存在的不足,分析项目管理的特点,依据系统动力学原理,结合项目动态系统的特征,建立了一个系统动力学模型.它更侧重于项目的宏观管理,侧重于对难以准确量化的复杂因素的分析,使项目管理更加科学化.     

系统动力学在物流系统中的运用

随着经济全球化、贸易一体化的发展，发展现代物流是全球经济发展的要求，物流已经成为社会生产和生活的必要条件，成为整个国民经济体系的大动脉。用系统动力学方法进行物流系统的定性化研究，为现代物流规划和决策提供了可靠依据。     

Link bidding in laboratory networks

This paper presents the results of laboratory experiments that explore the network formation process. Performances of three institutions, each derived from theoretical models found in the literature, are compared. All three institutions are found to generate similar levels of efficiency. In hospitable environments, the institutions achieve 85% efficiency, but all three fail to generate any positive surplus when stress tested.Received: 28 May 2002, Accepted: 14 March 2003, JEL Classification: A14, C70, C90, D20The authors wish to thank the International Foundation for Research in Experimental Economics for financial support in the form of subject payment money. This work has greatly benefited from comments by an anonymous referee, Rob Gilles, participants in the Social Network session at the 2001 Southern Economic Association Meetings, and seminar participants at the University of Arkansas.     

Cultural embeddedness in supply networks

Recent studies on structural and relational embeddedness suggest that favorable position and connections in supply networks benefit a firm. While fruitful, this focus misses the motivations that prompt firms to take economic action in the first place. Understanding cultural embeddedness provides insight into why individuals and firms behave as they do and how their behavior can influence network structure. Contrary to the belief that firms act solely for profit and growth, we note that cultural contents such as values, social issues and political ideologies explain firms’ motives and guide their economic activities. We explore the role of cultural embeddedness through a grounded study of Country Natural Beef, a sustainability-oriented agricultural cooperative in the western United States. This supply network demonstrates strongly competing cultural claims among its members as well as a unique institutionalized culture. Cultural interactions at the node and network levels explain the functioning of and changes to the network. Through interviews, analysis of archival information and direct observation of pivotal events over a period of 5 years, we unpack cultural embeddedness and take an incremental step toward a theory of cultural embeddedness in cooperative supply networks.