The assessment: real interest rates

The assessment attempts to provide a broad explanation of thepost-war pattern of real interest rates, drawing on the theoreticaland empirical papers in this issue of the >Oxford Review. Itis argued that the concept of the 'neutral' rate of interest,at which the economy grows at its productive potential withoutchanges in the inflation rate, provides a helpful frameworkfor understanding these developments. The neutral rate providesa bridge between, on the one hand, the fundamental determinantsof real returns, as suggested by models of economic growth and,on the other hand, the functioning of asset markets and theoperating procedures of central banks. The change in policystance towards tighter money at the beginning of the 1980s isseen as having had long-lasting effects, especially when accountis taken of the fiscal stance.     

经济的利益关联性及利益大小衡量

经济作为对象化的存在,是利益在人类实践所界定的多重对象世界中的展现;同时经济又是主体有目的地对资源进行有效的选择、配置和管理。利益大小,即价值的衡量,除了与稀缺关联、与对象本身所具有的满足人的需要的性质和功能相关联外;也在一定社会关系和文化背景之下,在个体与社会相统一中而获得意义。     

商业银行的利率风险控制

随着金融体制改革的深化,我国商业银行应该如何应对利率市场化的改革?本文将从利率市场化后的利率变动趋势、商业银行面临的利率风险以及如何防范风险等方面进行阐述.     

The linkage of interest rates within the EMS

The Linkage of Interest Rates within the EMS. — The paper explores the linkage between interest rates in Germany and the United States with those on other currencies within the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System. Monthly data on money market interest rates and rolling window cointegration techniques are used. The principal findings are that during the early part of the sample period (1979–1995), there is widespread cointegration between both US and German interest rates and those on other currencies in the ERM; but during the later part of the sample, this “worldwide” linkage disintegrates, cointegration between German and other ERM interest rates strengthening whilst that with the US disappears.     

The characteristics and survival of public interest groups

Conclusion There is no reason to assume that pressure groups will further the public interest, however defined. Generally, pressure groups are formed to benefit the members of the group. Those interest groups that form to exert political pressure will be characterized by the distribution of benefits within the group as well as by the net benefits of organizing. These same factors will discourage other groups from organizing. Because of the public good characteristic, pressure groups must avoid the free rider problem. Thus, interest groups tend to be short lived. In the short run, they can solve this problem by providing some divisible benefits, and small groups can use social pressure. In the long run, membership must depend on coercion or institutionalized advantage.     

A production function approach for analyzing the finance-growth nexus: The evidence from taiwan

This paper proposes a framework for analyzing the nexus between financial development and economic growth in terms of spillover effects. It is based on the production function theory and consists of two versions of the two-sector model. The framework is applied as a prototype to the case of Taiwan’s use of deflated annual data for 1961–1995. The empirical results show that the spillover effects of the financial-leading version dominate those of the real-fostering version in the case studied. Although these spillover series are significantly influenced by the financial development variables, they hardly reveal the structural changes caused by the events of financial deregulation.     

利率市场化下商业银行利率竞争的博弈分析

受金融危机的影响,我国存贷款基准利率发生相对频繁的波动,这也引起人们更加关注利率波动的影响。存贷利差水平是目前影响我国商业银行盈利水平的最重要因素,因而随着利率市场化的逐步深入,商业银行无疑将围绕利率展开更激烈的存贷业务竞争。本文从微观角度,运用博弈论的非合作博弈与合作博弈的一些基本方法,构建博弈模型分析我国商业银行利率竞争的态势,并基于这一分析提出相应的建议。     

The real rate of interest: a theoretical analysis

A theoretical view of the real rate of interest, such as isprovided by models of economic growth, is presented. That questionis of compelling interest, even though the issues are so long-runas to be of little practical importance. Models reviewed includethe Solow model, and its disaggregated extension by Stiglitz;endogenous growth models; the Ramsey model; and the Diamondcapital model. All these models are less than fully adequateto answer key questions. Solow-type models are good at demonstratingthe influence of grand changes, such as alterations in savingrates, or demographic changes. However key variables - particularlythe saving rate - are treated as constants. The Ramsey model,on the other hand, assumes in effect that a major influenceon the real rate is a given impatience parameter. The Diamondmodel is ideal for economies dominated by pension fund saving,but does not describe any actual economy.     

Variance analysis: A unifying cost function approach*

Abstract. This paper investigates the use of variance analysis when inputs are assumed to be substitutable. When input prices change after the budget is formulated, cost minimization behavior requires substitution of relatively cheaper input(s) for the more expensive input(s). An explicit incorporation of this substitution effect is necessary to provide proper incentives to production managers. The traditional variance analysis which depends upon “standards” is tantamount to assuming a fixed proportion production technology, even when inputs are substitutable. Thus the traditional variance analysis can yield a misleading and incorrect analysis which in turn can lead to a nonoptimal input combination. The paper provides a general framework for variance analysis which accounts for and, therefore, encourages substitution. Budgets are “flexible” not only with respect to output levels, but also with respect to input prices. The framework explicitly accounts for a new standard based upon realized conditions. To do so, a duality between production and cost functions is exploited so that the optimal input mix is obtained with ease under different price regimes. Four examples of cost functions are offered. They can be regarded as the new flexible standards which depend on both output levels and input prices. Résumé. L'auteur étudie l'utilisation de l'analyse des écarts lorsqu'on suppose que les intrants peuvent être substitués. Lorsque le prix des intrants change une fois le budget établi, le comportement de minimisation des coûts exige que l'on substitue un ou des intrants relativement plus économiques à l'intrant ou aux intrants plus dispendieux. L'incorporation explicite de cet effet de substitution s'impose si l'on veut offrir des stimulants appropriés aux gestionnaires de la production. L'analyse des écarts traditionnelle qui dépend des «normes» équivaut à supposer que la technologie de fabrication prévoit des proportions fixes, même lorsque les intrants peuvent être substitués. L'analyse des écarts traditionnelle peut donc mener à des observations erronées et incorrectes qui, à leur tour, peuvent mener à une combinaison d'intrants qui n'est pas optimale. L'auteur propose un cadre général pour l'analyse des écarts quitient compte de la substitution et, par conséquent, la favorise. Les budgets sont «variables» non seulement en ce qui a trait au niveau des extrants, mais aussi en ce qui a trait au prix des intrants. Le cadre tient compte de façon explicite d'une nouvelle norme fondée sur les conditions réalisées. Pour y parvenir, l'on exploite la dualité entre la production et les fonctions de coût, de sorte que la combinaison optimale d'intrants soit obtenue facilement compte tenu de différents régimes de prix. L'auteur présente quatre exemples de fonctions de coût qui peuvent être considérées comme de nouvelles normes souples dépendant à la fois du niveau des extrants et du prix des intrants.     

The interest elasticity of savings in developing countries: The existing evidence

This paper presents a critical analysis of some of the most recent empirical work on the interest elasticity of savings in developing economies, supported by a set of empirical results. The paper argues that: (a) the real interest elasticity of savings is not easily detected using the existing empirical models, which generally yield insignificant interest rate parameters in the seventies; (b) the existing models suffer from serious defects that make if very difficult to interpret the estimated parameters.     

加息、利率市场化与金融脆弱性研究

一、央行加息与我国的利率市场化 2004年10月29日，中国人民银行宣布上调金融机构存贷款基准利率并放宽人民币贷款利率浮动区间和允许人民币存款利率下浮。金融机构年期存贷款基准利率各上调0.27个百分点，其他各档次存、贷款利率也相应调整，中长期上调幅度大于短期。     

The behavior of market interest rates when information is incomplete

Conclusions This paper has attempted to show how participants in financial markets, in the face of incomplete information about the supply of and demand for money, might go about formulating expectations of future interest rates in making market-clearing decisions. In particular, it was seen that information about the current excess demand for money, extracted from the current interest rate, could be used in formulating these expectations.In studying the behavior of the resulting market-clearing interest rate, two key conclusions emerged. First, relative to a full-in-formation market-clearing rate, where money supply and money demand were assumed observable, the market-clearing interest rate under signal extraction resulted in a biased response. Second, the bias was found to be related to the rates at which the disturbances to money demand and money supply dissipated. This suggested a role for monetary policy in reducing this bias. But, conversely, this also showed that monetary policy could be a source of volatility of market-clearing interest rates, relative to their full-information values.     

中国利率市场化中的制度创新

加入WTO以及金融市场的全面对外开放，加快了中国利率市场化的实现进程；中国实现利率市场化的实质是制度创新，中国利率市场化进程面临诸多制度劂，只有通过制度创新才能顺利地推进利纺市场化的实现。