Intergenerational Mobility in Britain: Evidence from Unemployment Patterns

Recent papers have examined the intergenerational transmission of well-being by looking at the relationship between parents' and children's income. However, by concentrating on those who are working these studies exclude some of the very poorest in society, the unemployed. In this paper we extend the empirical work on intergenerational welfare in the UK by looking at the links between fathers' and sons' unemployment histories. Using an approach which takes account of both incidence and intensity of son's unemployment, we provide further evidence showing that parental background is an important determinant of a child's future welfare. A son whose father was unemployed 20 years earlier is almost twice as likely to be unemployed as a son whose father was not unemployed. Furthermore, this dependency remains significant after controlling for a range of son's characteristics including education, ability and family composition.     

Monetary policy transparency in a forward-looking market: Evidence from the United States

Because unsatisfactory measures of the monetary policy transparency were used, the existing literature found mixed empirical results for the relationship between the monetary policy transparency and risk/volatility. This paper extends the literature by using a recently developed monetary transparency index [Kia’s (2011) index] which is dynamic and continuous. Furthermore, the existing literature ignores the fact that market participants can be forward looking and, therefore, not policy invariant. This study also finds that the agents in the market are not policy invariant and the more transparent the monetary policy is the less risky and volatile the money market will be.     

中国A股上市公司利润平滑行为研究——基于新旧会计准则比较的经验证据

以我国上市公司为研究样本,就新旧准则执行前后公司利润平滑行为进行了对比检验。结果发现,执行新准则后上市公司盈余波动性显著提高,应计利润项目变动与经营现金流变动的负相关关系明显减弱,这证明了新准则实施显著降低了公司盈余平滑程度。研究结论表明新准则执行对我国企业会计信息质量具有提升作用,这为我们全面认识和了解会计准则执行的效果提供了经验证据支持。     

Determinants of Repayment in Microcredit: Evidence from Programs in the United States

Many microcredit programs have been created in the United States in the past decade that replicate design features of their counterparts in the third world. Yet few systematic studies have been carried out to examine what determines these programs’ loan repayment performance. We attempt to fill this gap by studying the determinants of loan repayment for four of the oldest group–based microcredit programs in the US. Our findings suggest that these programs are faced with a set of social and institutional environments that are both similar to and different from those faced by their third–world counterparts. On the one hand we find that higher levels of education and proximity to the lending agency increase the chances of loan repayment. Low transaction costs for accessing loans and high borrower–costs in the event of default also enhance loan repayment performance. On the other hand key variables such as gender and homogeneity of borrowers are not significantly related to loan repayment. We conclude by examining the implications of these findings for program design in the US. Au cours des dix dernières années, ont été créés aux Etats–Unis de nombreux programmes de microcrédit reprenant des concepts de leurs équivalents du Tiers monde. Cependant, on a mené peu d’études systématiques pour examiner ce qui décide de la qualité de remboursement des prÁts de ces programmes. En tentant de combler cette lacune, l’article étudie les déterminants de ces remboursements pour quatre des plus anciens programmes de microcrédit américains associés à des groupes. D’après les résultats, les programmes sont confrontés à un ensemble d’environnements sociaux et institutionnels à la fois similaires et différents de ceux que rencontrent leurs équivalents du Tiers monde. D’une part, les niveaux supérieurs d’éducation et de proximité de l’organisme de prÁt augmentent les chances de remboursement. Des frais de transaction faibles pour l’accès aux prÁts, de mÁme que des charges élevées pour l’emprunteur défaillant, favorisent également la réalisation du remboursement. D’autre part, des variables–clés, comme le sexe et l’homogénéité des emprunteurs, n’ont pas de liens significatifs avec le remboursement. En conclusion, sont étudiées les implications de ces résultats sur la conception des programmes américains.     

Earnings Management and the Accrual Anomaly: Evidence from China

Using the unique Chinese setting in which the “delisting regulation” is based on accounting numbers, we separate earnings management into (1) earnings management responding to regulation and (2) earnings management prompted by market pressures and further document that earnings management responding to market pressures produces the accrual anomaly (Sloan, 1996) and earnings management responding to regulation does not. Initially unable to detect the accrual anomaly in China's stock market, we were reluctant to conclude that China's market is more efficient than that in the United States. After observing a disproportionate number of “big‐bath” loss firm‐years in the lowest decile of accruals for our sample, we estimated the apparent earnings distortion induced by the delisting regulation. When we excluded this distortion from our analysis, we documented the presence of the accrual anomaly in China's stock market. We conclude that the delisting regulation creates an artificial distribution of firm earnings in China that affects the market pricing of accruals and masks the accrual anomaly. The results have implications for policy makers and regulators in general, and those in emerging markets in particular.     

The Government Spending Multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from the United States

We estimate state-dependent government spending multipliers for the United States. We use a factor-augmented interacted vector autoregression (FAIVAR) model. This allows us to capture the time-varying monetary policy characteristics including the recent zero interest rate lower bound (ZLB) state, to account for the state of the business cycle and to address the limited information problem typically inherent in VARs. We identify government spending shocks by sign restrictions and use a government spending growth forecast series to account for the effects of anticipated fiscal policy. In our baseline specification, we find that government spending multipliers in a recession range from 3.56 to 3.79 at the ZLB. Away from the ZLB, multipliers in recessions range from 2.31 to 3.05. Several robustness analyses confirm that multipliers are higher, when the interest rate is lower and that multipliers in recessions exceed multipliers in expansions. Our results are consistent with theories that predict larger multipliers at the ZLB.     

The Government Spending Multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from the United States

We estimate state‐dependent government spending multipliers for the United States. We use a factor‐augmented interacted vector autoregression (FAIVAR) model. This allows us to capture the time‐varying monetary policy characteristics including the recent zero interest rate lower bound (ZLB) state, to account for the state of the business cycle and to address the limited information problem typically inherent in VARs. We identify government spending shocks by sign restrictions and use a government spending growth forecast series to account for the effects of anticipated fiscal policy. In our baseline specification, we find that government spending multipliers in a recession range from 3.56 to 3.79 at the ZLB. Away from the ZLB, multipliers in recessions range from 2.31 to 3.05. Several robustness analyses confirm that multipliers are higher, when the interest rate is lower and that multipliers in recessions exceed multipliers in expansions. Our results are consistent with theories that predict larger multipliers at the ZLB.     

Fiscal policy and stock market efficiency: Evidence for the United States

This paper examines the extent to which fiscal policy actions affect the stock market's behavior for the US during 1968–2005. The findings are consistent with the hypothesis that past budget deficits negatively affect current stock returns thus suggesting that the market is inefficient with respect to information about future fiscal policy actions. One interpretation of this ‘disturbing’ result is that market participants do not place much faith on news about the budget deficits as they do not believe that deficits could adversely impact the stock market. Instead, what the market considers most important is news about monetary policy.     

Shareholder Activism and Earnings Management Incentives: An Empirical Examination of Shareholder Proposals in the United States

In this article, we investigate the effect of shareholder activism on earnings management. Using a US sample of shareholder pay‐for‐performance proposals sponsored by institutional investors, we find that when compared to control firms, firms targeted by shareholder proposals have a greater magnitude of discretionary accruals (DA) in their reported earnings. In addition, we find that the likelihood of meeting or beating earnings benchmarks through the use of DA is higher for targeted firms whose managers have job security concerns due to the firms’ inferior stock performance in the past or have plans to sell company stock. Our results are consistent with the notion that pay‐for‐performance proposals have unintended consequences by introducing or exacerbating incentives to manage earnings for short‐term gains. The results also indicate that, for financial reporting, the short‐termism effect may dominate the alignment and/or disciplinary effect of shareholder monitoring.     

Market reactions to trade friction between China and the United States: Evidence from the soybean futures market

In March 2018, the US used an immense trade deficit as an excuse to provoke trade friction with China. This study uses the EGARCH model and event study methods to study the impact of the major risk event of Sino-US trade friction on soybean futures markets in China and the United States. Results indicate that the Sino-US trade friction weakened the return spillover effect between the soybean futures markets in China and the US, and significantly increased market volatilities. As the scale of additional tariffs increased, the volatility of the Chinese soybean futures market declined; however, the volatility of the US soybean futures market did not weaken. In addition, expanding the sources of soybean imports helped ease the impact of tariffs on China’s soybean futures market, while the decline in US soybean exports to China intensified the volatility of the US soybean futures market. In addition, while the release of multiple tariff increases has had a short-term impact on the returns of soybean futures markets, the impact of trade friction has gradually decreased.     

An Empirical Analysis of Triple Bottom-Line Reporting and its Determinants: Evidence from the United States and Japan

This paper investigates triple bottom‐line (TBL) disclosures of 50 of the largest US and Japanese companies. Twenty disclosure criteria were developed for each of the TBL disclosure areas: economic, social, and environmental. Disclosure information was examined in annual reports, stand‐alone reports, and special website reports. Regression analysis was used to examine empirically the determinants of TBL disclosure practice. Our results indicate that, for total TBL disclosure (combining economic, social, and environmental categories), the extent of reporting is higher for firms with larger size, lower profitability, lower liquidity, and for firms with membership in the manufacturing industry. Further analysis indicates that the results for the total TBL disclosure are primarily driven by non‐economic disclosures. We also find that the extent of overall TBL reporting is higher for Japanese firms, with environmental disclosure being the key driver. This result could be attributed to the differences in national cultures, the regulatory environment, and other institutional factors between the United States and Japan.     

Regional integration and dynamic adjustments: Evidence from gross national product functions for Canada and the United States

We estimate a translog Gross National Product function and test for endogenously determined structural change allowing for anticipated and lagged responses to regional trade agreements. We found that Canada embarked on a long transition path prior to the implementation of the Canada-U.S. Trade Agreement, a result reminiscent of Magee's (2008) results concerning RTAs’ trade creation effects. In contrast, the United States experienced an abrupt structural change a year after the North American Free Trade Agreement took effect. This reflects that smaller economies benefitting from larger changes in terms of trade are confronted to more complex adjustment processes than larger economies.     

会计盈余与非预期盈余宣告对股价冲击作用的一项实证研究

本文以中国上市公司为样本对象,研究了会计盈余信息的市场冲击作用.文章分别从上市公司个股和市场整体两个角度考察了上市公司股价对会计信息的反应模式,得出了不一致的结论.首先,会计盈余对股价不一定具有正向冲击;其次,历史盈余信息不一定能代表未来收益;再次,市场对财务信息的反应模式和宏观经济环境有关,而这种关系则通过会计盈余和折现率之间的正相关关系传递.     

Private debt overhang and the government spending multiplier: Evidence for the United States

Using state‐dependent local projections and historical US data, we find that government spending multipliers are considerably larger in periods of private debt overhang. In particular, while multipliers are below or close to one in low private debt states, we find significant crowding‐in of private spending in periods of debt overhang, resulting in multipliers that are much larger than one. In high private debt episodes, more government purchases even reduce the ratio of government debt to gross domestic product. These results are robust for the type of shocks, and when we control for the business cycle, financial crises, deleveraging episodes, government debt overhang, and the zero‐lower‐bound.     

Majority Shareholder Ownership and Real Earnings Management: Evidence from Korea

This article examines the influence of majority shareholder ownership on real earnings management. It investigates whether there is a conflict between or an alignment of majority and minority shareholders' interests. If majority shareholders' interests are aligned with those of minority shareholders, a greater majority shareholder ownership lowers real earnings management. On the other hand, if they are not aligned, majority shareholders' attempts to exploit minority shareholders will increase real earnings management. This study does not find a systematic relationship between majority shareholder ownership and real earnings management. However, real earnings management significantly decreases in the upward earnings management incentive bracket as majority shareholder ownership increases. This occurs primarily because majority shareholders are more sensitive to upward real earnings management, which has a negative effect on future performance. These results suggest that the larger the ownership of majority shareholders, the more they play a positive role in mitigating real earnings management. This positive role is only effective in the post‐Asian economic crisis period. These results may suggest that the economic crisis in Korea helped majority shareholders more conscious of the long‐term costs of real earnings management. These findings support the convergence‐of‐interests hypothesis, providing evidence by investigating real earnings management instead of accruals‐based earnings management.     

关系型交易、内部控制与盈余管理——基于应计与真实盈余管理的经验证据

与以往单纯从内部控制这一规则治理机制出发研究盈余管理的文献不同,引入关系型交易这一关系治理机制,探讨两种不同的治理机制及其交互作用对上市公司应计盈余管理和真实盈余管理行为的影响。检验结果表明,随着供应商/客户关系交易比例的增加,上市公司进行正向应计盈余管理和真实盈余管理的程度越严重;进一步研究发现,高质量内部控制有助于抑制供应商关系型交易诱发的正向应计盈余管理和真实盈余管理,但是对客户关系型交易诱发的应计/真实盈余管理无显著影响。     

家族企业的“掏空”行为与会计盈余质量

以2003-2004年家族控制的上市公司为研究样本,实证考察了控制性家族的"掏空"行为对会计盈余质量的影响。研究结果表明,控制性家族的"掏空"行为加剧了公司内部人与外部投资者之间的信息不对称,降低了会计盈余的可靠性和价值相关性。上市公司的盈余管理程度与"掏空"行为显著正相关,会计盈余的信息含量与"掏空"行为显著负相关。     

Earnings Management in Domestic and Foreign IPOs in the United States: Do Home Country Institutions Matter?

Using a large sample of domestic and foreign IPOs in the US, we investigate how threats of enforcement by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and private litigation influence earnings management in IPO prospectuses. We propose that perceptions of foreign institutions may influence SEC enforcement action and private litigation. We provide evidence that enforcement and litigation threats are negatively related to the strength of legal institutions in the foreign IPO’s country of origin. We find earnings management is more pronounced in foreign IPOs from countries with strong legal institutions. We further explore whether earnings management is priced in the IPO market and find no relation between IPO proceeds and earnings management. Our results are consistent with upward earnings management as in Stein (1989), the magnitude of which is reduced when the anticipated cost of enforcement and litigation is higher. Collectively, our results cast doubt on the validity of the bonding hypothesis.     

Managerial Ownership and Earnings Management: Theory and Empirical Evidence from Japan

This paper examines the relationship between managerial ownership and opportunistic managerial behavior relating to earnings management. Economics theory identifies two apparently conflicting effects of managerial ownership on managers' incentives: the incentive alignment effect and the management entrenchment effect. We construct a theoretical model demonstrating the two effects. This model suggests that as managerial ownership increases, earnings management decreases for both high and low levels of managerial ownership, while it increases for intermediate levels of managerial ownership if the sensitivity of the probability of managerial dismissal to the corporate performance is high enough and/or the manager's private benefit derived from managerial position is high enough. In a sample of Japanese firms, we find a significant nonmonotonic relationship between managerial ownership and discretionary accruals, consistent with our model.