Technical efficiency and CO2 abatement policies in the Dutch glasshouse industry

This paper develops a short-run microeconomic simulation model of the Dutch glasshouse industry in order to investigate the relation between technical efficiency and marginal abatement costs of CO₂ emission. The model is also used to determine the effects of an emission tax and systems of tradable and non-tradable quota for groups of firms with different rates of technical efficiency. The results show that marginal abatement costs are very responsive to changes in technical efficiency. Furthermore, it is found that firms with a low technical efficiency are faced with a higher profit reduction under different abatement policies than firms with a high technical efficiency.     

Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for UK Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions

This article addresses the challenge of developing a ‘bottom‐up’ marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from UK agriculture. An MACC illustrates the costs of specific crop, soil and livestock abatement measures against a ‘business as usual’ scenario. The results indicate that in 2022 under a specific policy scenario, around 5.38 Mt CO₂ equivalent (e) could be abated at negative or zero cost. A further 17% of agricultural GHG emissions (7.85 Mt CO₂e) could be abated at a lower unit cost than the UK Government’s 2022 shadow price of carbon [£34 (tCO₂e)^?1]. The article discusses a range of methodological hurdles that complicate cost‐effectiveness appraisal of abatement in agriculture relative to other sectors.     

基于DNDC的茶园土壤碳素空间分异及其影响因素——以福建省安溪县为例

[目的]通过探究福建省安溪县茶园土壤碳素储量,揭示各碳素指标的空间分异特征及其关键影响因子,有助于为减少茶园温室气体排放和建设生态茶园提供决策支撑。[方法]文章运用反硝化分解（denitrification decomposition, DNDC）模型和空间统计分析方法对茶园土壤碳素进行模拟和研究。[结果]（1）经过参数率定的DNDC模型对茶园土壤碳素动态循环的模拟具有较好的适用性;（2）安溪茶园土壤有机碳含量丰富,土壤肥力较好。凋落物输入碳是茶园土壤碳素输入的主要来源,平均输入量为505.52 kg/hm2,而通过呼吸作用转化为CO2排放是茶园土壤碳素输出的重要途径,平均CO2排放量为883.78 kg/hm2;(3)茶园SOC10～20cm量、凋落物输入碳量、CH4排放量、CO2排放量均呈现空间聚集分布特征,主要分布在安溪县西部的低山与中低山地区;（4）初始土壤属性中黏粒含量和土壤有机碳含量是影响安溪县茶园土壤碳素空间分异的关键因子,其中土壤黏粒含量对茶园土壤CO2排放量和CH4排放量的影响最强且负向作用效果明显。[结论]安溪县西部等低山和中低山区域土壤肥力较好,但亦应谨慎对待该区...     

The Impact of FDI on CO2 Emissions in Latin America

This paper uses panel Granger causality tests to study the relationship between sector-specific foreign direct investment (FDI) and CO₂ emissions. Using a sample of 18 Latin American countries for the period 1980–2007, we find causality running from FDI in pollution-intensive industries (“the dirty sector”) to CO₂ emissions per capita. This result is robust to controlling for other factors associated with CO₂ emissions and using the ratio of CO₂ emissions to GDP. For other sectors, we find no robust evidence that FDI causes CO₂ emissions.     

Policy options towards deforestation reduction in Cameroon: An analysis based on a systematic approach

This study advances measures that can combat deforestation in Cameroon. It also looks at possible carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission reductions and the effects on gross domestic product (GDP) and employment based on selected baseline scenarios based on reductions in deforestation. A systematic approach of analyzing the drivers, agents, socio-economic context, political context, spatial context of deforestation and specific and general deforestation reduction policies is used. The final step of the approach is to verify the repercussions of deforestation reduction on CO₂ emissions, employment and GDP. Monitoring population growth and arable production through intensification of production is promising. The general policies that this study postulates are enforcement, legal adherence, specification of tasks and quotas, collaboration, forest licensing and monitoring. More specific policies could be within the reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation mechanism (REDD+) as well as diversification of livelihoods, mechanization, use of fertilizers and intensive cattle farming inter alia. Reductions in deforestation will reduce atmospheric CO₂, employment in the forestry sector and the share of forestry's contribution to GDP.     

Agriculture and global climate stabilization: a public good analysis

The stabilization of global climate presents one of the most complex problems in public good provision the world has faced. Continuation of “business as usual” policies, leading to warming of more than 2 degrees over the next year, will produce significant damage to agricultural systems and catastrophic damage to the natural ecosystems that ultimately support agriculture. The best solution to the public goods problem is a “contract and converge” agreement in which the ultimate outcome is a common global entitlement to CO₂ emissions per person.     

On the structural development of arable land in Finland – How costly will it be for the climate?

Finland is the most sparsely populated country in the European Union. Finland's northern location presents special challenges for the profitability of agriculture. At the same time Finland has a fragmented property structure which means that each farmer cultivates a number of separate fields that are scattered into small parcels located around the village. The situation came into being because of land reforms whose purpose was to handle socio-political issues and not to improve the feasibility of farms. It is obvious that this inefficient property structure increases the cultivation costs but what is often forgotten is that it also increases the harmful emissions to the climate.The purpose of this article is to present the property structure of arable land and its development in Finland until 2020. The main objective is to estimate the monetary value for those climate impacts that the development causes. The study was set up to analyze land management tools and their capabilities to handle the future challenges. First, the study estimates how much petrol consumption increases because of the increased need for agricultural traffic due to the forecasted development of property structure. Secondly, the study estimates a monetary value for the increased emissions to the climate due to the changes in petrol consumption. To estimate the monetary value of the climate effect a substitute cost method is used.It was estimated that by year 2020 the agricultural working hours will increase by almost three million hours per year from its current level because of the expected changes in property structure. By using the information about petrol consumption and emission rate of petrol, it was calculated that the total increase in CO₂-emissions will be more than 200 000 tkgCO₂ per year. By using the information about the level of increase in CO₂-emission and their shadow prices, it was calculated that the changes in property structure will cost 37 million euros until year 2020 and 544 million euros until year 2050. The sensitivity analysis showed that the results are strongly dependable on shadow prices of CO₂-emissions, property structure's development scenarios and the expected fuel efficiency of agricultural machinery. On the other hand it also showed that the impact will be remarkable especially in the long run if the changes in property structure cannot be prevented.The study showed that there is a massive potential for land management activities. But since the current land management tools that are utilized in Finland are not efficient to handle the future problems the toolbox should be renewed. As the renewing work requires both legislative and organizational changes the progress will take time. This means that the harmful impacts that the development of property structure causes will be realized in the upcoming decades. The study concludes that the increase in CO₂-emissions doesn’t concern only Finland but also other EU countries and that is why the matter should be investigated in other countries as well.     

Energy productivity and greenhouse gas emission intensity in Dutch dairy farms: A Hicks–Moorsteen by-production approach under non-convexity and convexity with equivalence results

The agricultural sector is currently confronted with the challenge to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, whilst maintaining or increasing production. Energy-saving technologies are often proposed as a partial solution, but the evidence on their ability to reduce GHG emissions remains mixed. Production economics provides methodological tools to analyse the nexus of agricultural production, energy use and GHG emissions. Convexity is predominantly maintained in agricultural production economics, despite various theoretical and empirical reasons to question it. Employing non-convex and convex frontier frameworks, this contribution evaluates energy productivity change (the ratio of aggregate output change to energy use change) and GHG emission intensity change (the ratio of GHG emission change to polluting input change) using Hicks-Moorsteen productivity formulations. We consider GHG emissions as by-products of the production process by using a multi-equation model. Given our empirical specification, non-convex and convex Hicks-Moorsteen indices can coincide under certain circumstances, which leads to a series of theoretical equivalence results. The empirical application focuses on 1,510 observations of Dutch dairy farms for the period of 2010–2019. The results show a positive association between energy productivity change and GHG emission intensity change, which calls into question the potential of on-farm, energy-efficiency-increasing measures to reduce GHG emission intensity.     

Climate change: a rational choice politics view*

Reduction in carbon dioxide emissions constitutes a global public good; and hence there will be strong incentives for countries to free ride in the provision of CO₂ emission reductions. In the absence of more or less binding international agreements, we would expect carbon emissions to be seriously excessive, and climate change problems to be unsolvable. Against this obvious general point, we observe many countries acting unilaterally to introduce carbon emission policies. That is itself an explanatory puzzle, and a source of possible hope. Both aspects are matters of ‘how politics works’– i.e. ‘public choice’ problems are central. The object of this paper is to explain the phenomenon of unilateral policy action and to evaluate the grounds for ‘hope’. One aspect of the explanation lies in the construction of policy instruments that redistribute strategically in favour of relevant interests. Another is the ‘expressive’ nature of voting and the expressive value of environmental concerns. Both elements – elite interests and popular (expressive) opinion – are quasi‐constraints on politically viable policy. However, the nature of expressive concerns is such that significant reductions in real GDP are probably not sustainable in the long term – which suggests that much of the CO₂ reduction action will be limited to modest reductions of a largely token character. In that sense, the grounds for hope are, although not non‐existent, decidedly thin.     

A detailed greenhouse gas budget for palm oil production

We have evaluated the global warming impact of palm oil production in a model that simulates the operations of a typical palm oil mill that processes fruit from a nucleus estate and outgrowers. It estimates carbon sequestration in the crop and in mill products and by-products, and balances this against the major sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs), all converted to carbon dioxide equivalents (CO₂-e) over the 25-year lifespan of the crop. The model shows that most carbon sequestration occurs in the standing crop, with smaller amounts in mill products and by-products. Land-use conversion plays a dominant role in the GHG budget, with planting of oil palm after logged forest or rubber leading to a net loss of carbon, and to a net gain following grassland. In the default oil-palm-to-oil-palm case the carbon lost from cleared palms is balanced by sequestration in the current crop. Methane from mill effluent and nitrous oxide from N fertilizers are the next most important emission sources. The default replant case gives net emissions of 0.86t CO₂-e per t crude palm oil, but these can be reduced to very low values, mainly through conversion of methane and surplus fuel in the mill to energy.     

Urban sprawl and climate change: A statistical exploration of cause and effect,with policy options for the EU

This study provides a brief evaluation of the relationship between trends in transport emissions and urban land-use by analysing correlation between transport CO₂ emissions data, GDP and population data with land-use change data from the CORINE database for EU Member States between 1990 and 2000.     

Agriculture's Likely Role in Meeting Canada's Kyoto Commitments*

Voluntary adoption of beneficial management practices will be the primary means by which farmers cut net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The offset system will not be a major driver due to (a) the relatively low prices likely to be offered by large final emitters facing an emission cap, (b) discounts applied to those prices for temporary sequestration, (c) the transaction costs and risk premiums associated with signing carbon contracts, and (d) the low elasticity of supply of CO₂ abatement. Although Canadian farmers are likely to participate to only a limited extent in the carbon‐offset market, many will find it profitable to adopt one or more of the BMPs for reducing net GHG emissions. Canadian agriculture is likely to contribute significantly to net emission reductions by voluntarily sequestering carbon due to the adoption of zero till in the last decade, and possibly by cutting fertilizer levels in the next decade. The contribution will be mainly a response to meeting personal economic objectives rather than being induced by direct incentives through the offset program.     

Soil CO2 emission and carbon budget of a wheat/maize annual double-cropped system in response to tillage and residue management in the North China Plain

To investigate the impacts of tillage and crop residue managements on soil CO₂ emission and C budget in a wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)/maize (Zea mays L.) double-cropped system in the North China Plain (NCP), a field experiment was conducted consisting of four treatments: tillage with crop residues retention (CT+), tillage with crop residues removal (CT?), no-till with crop residues retention (NT+), and no-till with crop residues removal (NT?). Daily soil CO₂ fluxes changed with crop growing stage and peaked during the most vigorous growth of period, fluxes in maize season were higher than those in wheat season. Compared to the tilled soils, cumulative CO₂ emissions were significantly lower under no-till treatments. The largest cumulative CO₂ emission occurred under CT+ (65?g CO₂-C m^?2 y^?1) and the smallest was under NT+ (39?g CO₂-C m^?2 y^?1). After 5 years of the experiment, soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration were greater with crop residues retention (CT+ and NT+) than with crop residues removal (CT? and NT?), the maximum SOC stock was in NT+ (5940?g C m^?2) while the minimum was in CT? (3635?g C m^?2). NT+ could help to mitigate CO₂ emission in the annual wheat/maize double-cropping system of the area.     

Modelling the transportation of primary aggregates in England and Wales: Exploring initiatives to reduce CO2 emissions

Millions of tonnes of aggregates are transported across England and Wales each year, which causes constant concerns in regard to CO₂ emissions. Much of that concern arises out of the long journeys from quarries to construction sites, and the fact that the main mode of transfer is by road. The aim of this paper is to describe the construction of a spatial decision support system (SDSS) to examine the impacts of scenarios to reduce the level of CO₂ emissions. The SDSS is made up of a GIS containing a set of spatial models (including a spatial interaction model and a microsimulation model) underpinned by a detailed transport network of road and rail routes across England and Wales. The spatial interaction models are first calibrated to reproduce the existing set of flows of aggregates between quarries and local authority districts. The distance decay component is the travel distance equivalent across the road and rail networks. Based on these flows, linear models can be set up to estimate the amount of CO₂ emissions associated with the existing set of flows. Then a series of what-if scenarios are set up which look at how changes in any part of the geography of production, the level of demand in certain areas or the transport process will impact the CO₂ emissions. The paper demonstrates the capability of the SDSS in responding to the various spatial policies applied in different stages of the supply chain of the aggregates markets.     

The regional economic effects of a reduction in carbon emissions

Concern about climate change has led to policy to reduce CO₂ emissions although it is likely that policy will have differential regional impacts. While regional impacts will be politically important, very little analysis of them has been carried out. This paper contributes to the analysis of this issue by building a small model involving two regions, incorporating the right to emit CO₂ as a factor of production with the level of permitted emissions set by the national government. We argue that there is likely to be pressure on governments to use other policies to offset the possible adverse regional economic consequences of the pollution‐reduction policy; we also consider a range of such policies. Using numerical simulation, we find that a 10 per cent reduction has relatively small but regionally differentiated economic effects. Standard fiscal policies are generally ineffective or counterproductive while labour market policies are more useful in offsetting the adverse effects.     

Logs or permits? Forestry land use decisions in an emissions trading scheme

Negative carbon emissions options are required to meet long-term climate goals in many countries. One way to incentivise these options is by paying farmers for carbon sequestered by forests through an emissions trading scheme (ETS). New Zealand has a comprehensive ETS, which includes incentives for farmers to plant permanent exotic forests. This research uses an economy-wide model, a forestry model and land use change functions to measure the expected proportion of farmers with trees at harvesting age that will change land use from production to permanent forests in New Zealand from 2014 to 2050. We also estimate the impacts on carbon sequestration, the carbon price, gross emissions, GDP and welfare. When there is forestry land use change, the results indicate that the responsiveness of land owners to the carbon price has a measured impact on carbon sequestration. For example, under the fastest land use change scenario, carbon sequestration reaches 29.93 Mt CO₂e by 2050 compared to 23.41 Mt CO₂e in the no land use change scenario (a 28% increase). Even under the slowest land use change scenario, carbon sequestration is 25.89 Mt CO₂e by 2050 (an 11% increase compared with no land use change). This is because, if foresters decide not to switch to permanent forests in 1 year, carbon prices and ultimately incentives to convert to permanent forests will be higher in future years.     

Allocating provincial CO2 quotas for the Chinese national carbon program

In order to improve the efficiency of climate change initiatives China launched its national carbon market in December 2017. Initial CO2 quota allocations are a matter of significant concern. How should we allocate CO₂ emissions reduction responsibilities among Chinese provinces, assuming that provinces will not or cannot trade these responsibilities among themselves? In this paper, we allocate CO₂ quota from the perspective of cost minimisation. First, we estimate the national CO₂ marginal abatement cost (MAC) function and deduce the interprovincial MAC functions. Second, we build an allocation model with nonlinear programming for cost minimisation. Finally, we obtain the allocation results under the emissions reduction target by 2030. The results are as follows. (i) The national MAC was 134.3 Yuan/t (at the constant price of 1978) in 2011, with an overall upward trend from 1990 to 2011. (ii) The interprovincial MACs differ significantly and decline gradually from east to west. Hebei has the largest emissions reduction quota, and Shandong has the largest emissions quota by 2030. (iii) Compared with other criteria of per capita, gross domestic product (GDP), grandfathering and carbon intensity, the proposed approach is the most cost‐effective in achieving the reduction target, with cost savings of 37.7, 34.5, 47.9 and 33.87 per cent, respectively.     

The opportunity cost of preserving the Brazilian Amazon forest

We estimate the trade‐off between forest preservation and agricultural production for the Legal Amazon region, using census and deforestation data for municipalities in 2006. We use a directional distance function to represent the production possibility frontier, and then calculate the shadow price of reducing deforestation in terms of agricultural income foregone. Results indicate that, on average, to preserve 1 ha of forest, $797 in annual agricultural GDP must be foregone. Using a discount rate of 10% and average forest carbon density of 132 tons per hectare, these results imply an average shadow price of $16 per ton of CO₂ permanently sequestered.     

Energy‐saving Technology Choices by Dutch Glasshouse Firms

This paper estimates a sequence of energy‐saving technology choices by Dutch glasshouse firms. The model allows for time‐constant, firm‐specific effects and serial correlation of errors and it is estimated on panel data over the period 1991–1995. The unobserved error sequences are simulated in the model in such a way that they are consistent with the observed choices. The results suggest that positive revenue shocks encourage adoption of new technologies. The choices also exhibit firm‐specific persistency over time. An increase of the price of energy encourages the adoption of a highly efficient energy‐saving technology. The probability of investing in energy‐saving technologies also decreases with capital invested in structures (e.g. double glazing of glasshouses) and increases with capital in energy installations.