Interrelated labor decisions of farm couples: a censored response analysis of off‐farm work

Farm couples' labor market responses are partly the discrete choice of entering the off‐farm labor market and partly the continuous choice of off‐farm working hours, given entry. Such a setting is interesting when examining the increasing occurrence of multiple job‐holdings among farmers in Western economies. Most existing analyses of off‐farm labor supply only model the decisions of the farmer, not the joint decisions of the farm couple. This article presents a framework for handling such interrelated discrete/continuous choices, involving also farm production and household consumption. The derived two‐equation sub‐model for husband/wife's censored labor responses is estimated from a 10‐year Norwegian panel data for 342 farms. The results agree to some extent with earlier studies, but are more informative because of the longer panels—which allows a more extensive examination of latent heterogeneity and behavioral persistence—because it provides cross‐effects in the spouses' labor supplies. The results show some interesting differences between how the independent variables influence the labor supply of operator and spouse. This is most evident for the cross‐effects of education, children, and wage rate. Overall, the results strongly support applying a panel‐censoring model that accounts for latent heterogeneity in this context.     

Demand for meat and dairy products by Turkish households: a Bayesian censored system approach

We extend the Tobit (censored) linear equation system procedure to utility‐theoretic demand functions, along with a mapping mechanism to impose the adding‐up restriction implied by consumer utility maximization theory—a theoretical restriction very often ignored in previous empirical studies with censored demand systems. In this context, the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure is applied to the censored linear approximate almost ideal demand system (LAIDS) for 12 food products, using data from the Turkish Household Expenditure Survey. All own‐price elasticities are negative and expenditure elasticities positive. Uncompensated own‐price elasticities for rural households are generally much higher than those for their urban peers, though demand for most food products are own‐price elastic for both types of households. The differential patterns in demand elasticities between urban and rural households become even more evident (almost twice) as relatively more expensive foodstuffs are consumed, showing that accessibilities to alternative products have made rural Turkish households more cognizant toward price changes in foods. Household characteristics play a key role in food expenditures, notably so in urban areas, and regional and seasonal differences are also present.     

Are commodity prices chaotic?

We conduct tests for the presence of low‐dimensional chaotic structure in the futures prices of four important agricultural commodities. Though there is strong evidence of non‐linear dependence, the evidence suggests that there is no long‐lasting chaotic structure. The dimension estimates for the commodity futures series are generally much higher than would be for low dimension chaotic series. Our test results indicate that autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH)‐type processes, with controls for seasonality and contract‐maturity effects, explain much of the non‐linearity in the data. We make a case that employing seasonally adjusted price series is important in obtaining robust results via some of the existing tests for chaotic structure. Finally, maximum likelihood methodologies, that are robust to the non‐linear dynamics, lend strong support to the Samuelson hypothesis of maturity effects in futures price changes.     

U.S. demand for organic and conventional vegetables: a Bayesian censored system approach

Demand for organic and conventional vegetables is investigated using data from A.C. Nielsen’s 2006 Homescan panel. We use a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo technique, along with data augmentation, to estimate a large linear approximate Almost Ideal Demand System with censored dependent variables. Demands are price elastic, and expenditure elasticities are very high for organic vegetables, whilst demands for conventional vegetables are primarily inelastic. We find a mix of gross substitution and complementarity among the vegetable products, but net substitution is the dominant pattern. Socio‐demographic characteristics also play important roles in demands. These findings can inform deliberations about marketing campaigns, nutrition education and policy interventions.     

Incomplete Credit Markets and Commodity Marketing Behaviour

We use a simple theoretical model of seasonal market participation in the presence of liquidity constraints and transaction costs to explain the ‘sell low, buy high’ puzzle in which some households do not take advantage of inter‐temporal price arbitrage through storage and sell output postharvest at prices lower than observed prices for purchases in the subsequent lean season. We test our model with data from western Kenya using maximum likelihood estimation of a multivariate sample selection model of market participation. Access to off‐farm income and credit indeed seem to influence crop sales and purchase behaviours in a manner consistent with the hypothesised patterns.     

Market integration between surplus and deficit rice markets during global food crisis period

Applying the maximum‐likelihood method of co‐integration, this study analysed spatial market integration between an adjacent rice surplus market (India) and deficit markets (Bangladesh and Nepal). The main focus is on the government policies of these three rice‐producing countries which have been imposed to reduce domestic price volatilities in rice markets during the recent ‘global food crisis’ in 2007–2008. The co‐integration tests find that domestic rice prices of India, Bangladesh and Nepal are integrated both in short‐run and long‐run periods despite the imposition of export restriction policies by India. The reason that prices are transmitted so effectively is most likely to be the widespread informal cross‐border trade through the porous borders among India, Bangladesh and Nepal.     

Consistent Estimation of a Censored Demand System and Welfare Analysis: The 2012 VAT Reform in Spain

This paper analyses the effects that the 2012 VAT reform in Spain had on households’ welfare, focusing on a major expenditure group: food and non‐alcoholic beverages. Households’ demands are modeled as a two‐stage Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System, which is then estimated by means of a consistent two‐step estimator introduced in Tauchmann ( 2010 ) and not previously used in studies of this type. This procedure allows consistent imposition of the traditional parameter restrictions that utility maximisation requires in the context of a censored model. Our results show that the welfare loss and the increment in the tax bill increase with income. We also show that expenditure on food and non‐alcoholic beverages grows less than proportionately with income. Consequently, households with lower income experience a greater welfare loss relative to their income levels. In short, the 2012 VAT reform in Spain, focusing on this expenditure group, can be considered as regressive.     

Heterogeneous Demand and Supply for an Insurance‐linked Credit Product in Kenya: A Stated Choice Experiment Approach

We employ a discrete choice experiment to elicit demand and supply side preferences for insurance‐linked credit, a promising market‐based tool for managing agricultural weather risks and providing access to credit for farmers. We estimate preference heterogeneity using primary data from smallholder farmers and managers of lenders/insurers combined with household socio‐economic survey data in Kenya. We analyse the choice data using maximum simulated likelihood and Hierarchical Bayes estimation of a mixed logit model. Although there are some similarities, we find that there is conflicting demand and supply side preferences for credit terms, collateral requirements, and loan use flexibility. We also analyse willingness to buy and willingness to offer for farmers and suppliers, respectively, for the risk premium for different attributes and their levels. Identifying the preferred attributes and levels for both farmers and financial institutions can guide optimal packaging of insurance and credit providing market participation and adoption motivation for insurance‐bundled credit product.     

Testing the Alchian–Allen theorem for three goods using the pseudo Poisson model

We show that the Alchian–Allen theorem holds in three‐good world. We empirically test the theorem by examining the relative demand for three quality‐differentiated coffee varieties sold globally and confirm that a common per‐unit charge increases the overall quality of coffee demanded. Our empirical specification employs the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood method, which prevents sample selection bias when zero flows between country pairs occur and estimated parameter inconsistency when the data exhibit heteroscedasticity. This is a significant improvement compared to previous practice of using the ordinary least squares to estimate the log‐log formulation, which led to both biased and inconsistent parameter estimates.     

Trade Elasticity,Gravity and Trade Liberalisation: Evidence from the Food Industry

We present an econometric investigation of the trade effect produced by the elimination of tariffs in 18 food sectors for a large sample of developing and developed countries. The standard CES monopolistic competition trade model and the gravity equation were used to estimate trade substitution elasticities, exploring their sensitivity to different estimation methods. Using these elasticities, we simulate the trade effect of the elimination of tariffs, dealing with the problem of uncertainty in the estimated values. Results point to a significant variation in the elasticities estimated by different econometric methods, suggesting that the Poisson pseudo‐maximum‐likelihood estimator significantly inflates their magnitude. Simulation results indicate that trade liberalisation will strongly increase food exports especially from high income and emerging countries, leading to a general loss of market share by developing countries. The simulated trade flows obtained from the econometric approach are quite close to current evidence based on computable general equilibrium models.     

Do vouchers improve government fertilizer distribution? Evidence from Nigeria

Government distribution of subsidized fertilizer in Sub‐Saharan Africa is often characterized by cumbersome administrative processes and diversion of the product from the proclaimed beneficiaries. This study uses propensity score matching techniques to analyze an input voucher program in Nigeria that was meant to demonstrate an alternative and more efficient distribution mechanism for subsidized fertilizer. We find that participants in the 2009 voucher program received more bags of subsidized fertilizer than nonparticipants and also paid significantly lower prices compared to those who purchased directly from the market. On average, however, participating in the voucher program did not improve the timeliness of fertilizer receipt or the quality of the product. Where statistically significant, participating in the program increased the likelihood that the product was received late and that some complaint about the product's quality was made. As many developing countries; particularly in Sub‐Saharan Africa adopt the use of input vouchers or scale up already existing programs, this study demonstrates when the distribution of subsidized fertilizer via vouchers improves farmers’ timely access to good and more affordable fertilizer. It highlights some key issues to be considered in order to expand the dimensions of success of well‐targeted input voucher programs     

Technical efficiency of Kansas arable crop farms: a local maximum likelihood approach

This study uses local maximum likelihood (LML) methods recently proposed by Kumbhakar et al. (2007) to assess the technical efficiency of arable crop Kansas farms. LML techniques overcome the most relevant limitations associated to mainstream parametric stochastic and nonparametric frontier models. LML allows deriving farm‐level frontier parameter estimates. The relevance of using localized estimates is evidenced by the observed heterogeneity in production technologies. Technical efficiency scores derived from the LML approach [0.905] are higher than those of the DEA model under CRS [0.808] and SFA [0.804] and close to DEA‐VRS [0.917] ratings. Deriving reliable information about farm efficiency performance is relevant to identify inefficient farms and define adequate policy and management strategies. The use of refined methods has thus important implications.     

Short‐run and long‐run dynamics of farm land allocation: panel data evidence from Denmark1

This study develops and estimates a dynamic multi‐output model of farmers’ land allocation decisions that allows for the gradual adjustment of allocations that can result from crop rotation practices and quasi‐fixed capital constraints. Estimation is based on micro‐panel data from Danish farmers that include acreage, output, and variable input utilization at the crop level. Results indicate that there are substantial differences between the short‐run and long‐run land allocation behaviour of Danish farmers and that there are substantial differences in the time lags associated with different crops. To our knowledge, this is the first dynamic micro‐model of land allocation estimated on data from the temperate climate zone. Since similar farming conditions are found in northern Europe and parts of the United States and Canada, this result may be of wider interest.     

Reforms,globalization, and endogenous agricultural structures

In this article, I draw lessons from two quasi‐natural experiments (the transition process in former Communist countries and the rapid globalization of food chains) on the optimality of farms and agricultural structures more generally. I argue that (a) the farm structures that have emerged from the transition process are much more diverse than expected ex ante; (b) this diversity is to an important extent determined by economic mechanisms which are influenced by initial conditions and reform policies; (c) non‐traditional farm structures have played an important role during transition because they were optimal to address the specific institutional and structural constraints imposed by the transition process; (d) there is more diversity than often argued in the farms that are integrated in global food chains; (e) endogenous institutional (contracting) innovations in food chains may lock existing farm structures in a long‐run institutional framework; and (f) indicators based on farm structures are not a good measure of welfare effects of the globalization of food chains.     

Quantifying the structure of food demand in China: An econometric approach

This article examines food demand structure and its dynamics for 11 commodities in urban China. The analysis is based on household‐level expenditure survey data for two cross‐sectional surveys of Chinese households pertaining to food expenditure patterns during 1995 and 2003. Pre‐committed components of commodity demands, that are insensitive to economic variables, are explored. We use the generalized quadratic almost ideal demand system (GQAIDS) for its empirical superiority to the generalized almost ideal demand system (GAIDS), and estimate the associated parameters via full information maximum likelihood procedure (FIML) accounting for endogeneity of total expenditures on food for home consumption (FAH). We also use quality‐adjusted commodity unit values to control for quality differences resulting from commodity aggregation and food choice. Furthermore, we derive GQAIDS elasticity formulas, and estimate income elasticities without restrictions. The results partially support the hypothesis that an average Chinese household has incorporated elements of Western diet (fine grains) into traditional Chinese food diet over time. Moreover, the outcome of a simple test developed here points to possible preference changes for a majority of food staples under study.     

Estimation of input-oriented technical efficiency using a nonhomogeneous stochastic production frontier model

Technical inefficiency can be modeled as either input‐oriented (IO) or output‐oriented (OO). However, in the estimation of parametric stochastic production frontier models which use maximum likelihood method only the OO measure is used. In this article we consider a simple nonhomogeneous production function and estimate it with both IO and OO specifications. A sample of 80 Spanish dairy data (1993–1998) is used to estimate both models. We consider one output (liters of milk) and four variable inputs (viz., number of cows, kilograms of concentrates, hectares of land, and labor [measured in man‐equivalent units]). We find that returns to scale (RTS) and technical efficiency results derived from these models are different because either estimated technologies are different, or they are evaluated at different points. Using a Monte Carlo analysis we show that if RTS is close to unity differences in the estimates of RTS and technical efficiency are smaller. This holds true for estimates of both RTS and technical efficiency.     

The Effect of Mandatory Agro‐Environmental Policy on Farm Fertiliser and Pesticide Expenditure

EU farmers are subject to mandatory cross‐compliance measures, requiring them to meet environmental conditions to be eligible for public support. These obligations reinforce incentives for farmers to change their behaviour towards the environment. We apply quasi‐experimental methods to measure the causal relationship between cross‐compliance and some specific farm environmental performance. We find that cross‐compliance reduced farm fertiliser and pesticide expenditure. This result also holds for farmers who participated in other voluntary agro‐environmental schemes. However, the results do not support our expectations that farmers who relied on larger shares of public payments had a stronger motivation to improve their environmental performance.     

Off‐farm Employment and Input Intensification among Smallholder Maize Farmers in Kenya

We derive input demand functions for fertiliser and hybrid seed, testing for the combined and separate effects of income from non‐farm sources and agricultural wage labour among smallholder maize farmers in Kenya. More income from off‐farm sources, and specifically non‐farm sources, competes with maize intensification, particularly in more productive areas where use rates are higher. In less productive areas, where households rely more on off‐farm income and input use in maize is extremely low, agricultural wage labour reduces the likelihood that fertiliser is applied, but when used, has a positive effect on quantities purchased of both seed and fertiliser.     

Technology and efficiency in a panel of Italian dairy farms: an SGM restricted cost function approach

This article employs a short‐term specification of the symmetric generalised McFadden (SGM) cost function capable of accommodating quasi‐fixed factors and variable returns. Temporary equilibrium and scale economies are investigated while maintaining the consistency of the estimated model with microeconomic theory and approximation properties. It also makes use of a two‐step procedure to estimate first the technology parameters and then time‐varying efficiency at farm level. No distributional assumptions are required on efficiency as we consider a fixed effect model. A balanced panel of Italian dairy farms during the years from 1980 to 1992 serves as the case study. The results suggest a rigid productive structure during the pre‐ and post‐quota period. Moreover, Italian milk producers are found to exhibit considerable excess capacity and rather low input technical efficiency.     

Testing for allocation efficiencies in water quality tenders across catchments,industries and pollutants: a north Queensland case study*

The design of competitive tenders to purchase environmental services requires judgements to be made about the funding scale and tender scope, with the latter incorporating considerations of geographic area, industries involved and the types of environmental outputs required. Increasing the scale and scope of tenders increases the likelihood that a larger range of proposals will be proposed and cost‐effective ones selected. However, the use of larger and more broadly scoped tenders may reduce landholder participation and increase asking bids. In the study reported here, these issues have been tested with a single water quality tender run in north‐eastern Australia in 2007 and 2008. Post hoc tests and workshop exercises show that while larger‐scale and scope tenders can generate efficiency gains, care has to be taken to maintain participation and avoid higher bid levels.