The State of Resource Taxation in Australia: ‘An Inexcusable Folly for the Nation’?

This article discusses the principal claims made for the Resource Rent Tax (RRT) by Garnaut and Clunies-Ross (1975, 1979) relating to its efficiency and potential for generating tax revenue relative to other forms of resource taxation, and also their concern about the greater uncertainty of these revenues. An analysis of the risk-return trade-off associated with a shift from ad valorem royalties to an RRT finds this shift to be worthwhile. Estimates are also provided of the foregone tax revenue from the North West Shelf associated with the use of ad valorem royalties rather than the RRT.     

Resisting Environmental Dispossession in Ecuador: Whom Does the Political Category of ‘Ancestral Peoples of the Mangrove Ecosystem’ Include and Aim to Empower?

The development of shrimp aquaculture in Ecuador caused massive ecological damage, particularly in the mangrove areas. Consequently, the livelihood of the population linked to this ecosystem was disrupted. Faced with environmental dispossession, the population engaged in the defence of mangroves by articulating a national grassroots movement. In 2007, this movement implemented a novel identity politics strategy that linked mangrove ecosystem to indigeneity, and positioned itself as the ‘Ancestral Peoples of the Mangrove Ecosystem’ (PAEM). This paper focuses on the political economy of the shrimp‐farming industry in Ecuador, showing the interrelation between environmental dispossession, collective action and identity formation, and analysing how this novel political identity is understood by different members of this social movement. The work argues that PAEM refers to a category that is closely linked to the processes of mangrove defence, in direct opposition to the shrimp farmer's identity, rather than to an essentialized conception of identity based on ‘nativeness’.     

Deracializing Exploitation? ‘Black Economic Empowerment’ in the South African Wine Industry

This paper considers the discourse and practice of 'Black Economic Empowerment' (BEE) in the South African wine industry. It argues that far from representing a decisive break with an inequitable past, BEE allows the South African wine industry to avoid potentially more uncomfortable options to redress current and past race-based imbalances – such as land redistribution, import boycotts and better working conditions for grape pickers. An essentialist racial discourse, pivoting on ahistorical and dislocated notions of 'blackness', has been used to displace the transformation agenda away from addressing the conditions faced by workers, and to an ameliorism that allows a small cohort of black entrepreneurs to become the preferred beneficiaries of 'transformation' in the wine industry. The new terrain is characterized by branding, advertising and image building on the one side: and by codes of conduct, a sectoral BEE charter, scorecards and auditing on the other. These allow the standardization, legitimation and ostensible deracialization of exploitative labour and social relations in the South African wine industry.     

How Large is Congressional Dependence in Agriculture? Bayesian Inference about ‘Scale’ and ‘Scope’ in Measuring a Spatial Externality

The political economy literature on agriculture emphasises influence over political outcomes via lobbying conduits in general, political action committee contributions in particular, and the pervasive view that political preferences with respect to agricultural issues are inherently geographic. In this context, ‘interdependence’ in Congressional vote behaviour manifests itself in two dimensions. One dimension is the intensity by which neighbouring vote propensities influence one another, and the second is the geographic extent of voter influence. We estimate these facets of dependence using data on a Congressional vote on the 2001 Farm Bill using routine Markov chain Monte‐Carlo procedures and Bayesian model averaging, in particular. In so doing, we develop a novel procedure to examine both the reliability and the consequences of different model representations for measuring both the ‘scale’ and the ‘scope’ of spatial (geographic) co‐relations in voting behaviour.     

‘Deal’ or ‘No Deal’? Impacts of Alternative Post‐Brexit Trade Agreements on UK Agriculture

Brexit will have important implications for UK agricultural commodity markets due to potentially significant changes to trade flows. We quantify the sectoral impacts on UK agriculture of three illustrative scenarios, which capture a broad range of potential trade arrangements: Bespoke Free Trade Deal , WTO Default and Unilateral Trade Liberalisation . It is estimated that the projected market impacts are relatively small if the UK negotiates a Bespoke Free Trade Agreement with the EU. The projected impacts are much greater under the two other scenarios, which capture potential trade arrangements if ‘no deal’ is reached. The high tariffs imposed under the WTO default scenario lead to significant adjustments in trade between the UK and EU‐27, with the impact on the domestic UK market depending on whether the UK is a net importer or a net exporter of the relevant commodity. All sectors experience price and production declines under the trade liberalisation scenario in which the UK unilaterally sets tariffs on imports from both the EU‐27 and the rest of the world to zero; the impacts are particularly severe in the beef and sheep sectors where international competition is very strong.     

The End of a Romance? A Note on the Quantitative Impacts of a ‘Brexit’ from the EU

This study suggests UK equivalent variation (EV) gains of €8.9 billion on withdrawal from the EU budget. Factoring in associated trade facilitation costs from the loss of UK access to the single market, annual UK EV losses could be as high as €14.0 billion, with the EU‐28 facing a corresponding loss of €40.4 billion. Interestingly, the extrapolated UK gain arising from withdrawal from the ‘CAP’ component of the EU budget exceeds estimated lower and upper bound trade facilitation costs exclusively on EU agrofood trade. Accordingly, the UK should realistically remain as an EU member, although continue to lobby for reductions in the CAP budget.     

Why Isn’t More US Farmland Organic?

We develop a theoretical model to assess the dollar compensation required to induce conventional growers to convert to organic. The model incorporates the uncertainty in producers’ expectations about future returns and about the impact of policy changes on these expectations in particular. We demonstrate that a new policy which favours organic can have opposing effects on the rate of conversion. An increase in relative returns to organic today will increase conversion rates. However, if the future of the policy programme is uncertain, its introduction can increase the value of waiting to switch, which will decrease conversion rates. We then develop an empirical switching regression model that enables direct estimation of the value associated with being able to postpone the conversion decision until some of the uncertainty is resolved. The model is applied to data on organic and conventional soybeans before and after major changes in US farm policy toward organic growers. The results suggest that sunk costs associated with conversion to organic coupled with uncertainty about future returns can help to explain why there is so little organic farmland in the USA.     

The Effects of Kenya's ‘Smarter’ Input Subsidy Programme on Smallholder Behaviour and Incomes: Do Different Quasi‐experimental Approaches Lead to the Same Conclusions?

Kenya joined the ranks of sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries implementing targeted input subsidy programmes (ISPs) for inorganic fertiliser and improved seed in 2007 with the establishment of the National Accelerated Agricultural Inputs Access Programme (NAAIAP). Although several features of NAAIAP were ‘smarter’ than other ISPs in the region, some aspects were less ‘smart’. However, the efficacy of the programme, and the relationship between its design and effectiveness, have been little studied. This article uses nationwide survey data to estimate the effects of NAAIAP participation on Kenyan smallholders’ cropping patterns, incomes, and poverty status. Unlike most previous studies of ISPs, a range of panel data‐ and propensity score‐based methods are used to estimate the effects of NAAIAP. The article then compares these estimated effects across estimators and to the effects of other ISPs in SSA, and discusses the likely links between differences in programme designs and impacts. The results are robust to the choice of estimator and suggest that, despite substantial crowding out of commercial fertiliser demand, NAAIAP had sizeable impacts on maize production and poverty severity. NAAIAP's success in targeting resource‐poor farmers and implementation through vouchers redeemable at private agro‐dealer shops likely contributed to its more favorable impacts than those of ISPs in Malawi and Zambia.     

Introduction to the special issue “small farms: decline or persistence?”

This issue of Agricultural Economics contains articles from a seminar entitled “Small Farms: Decline or Persistence?” held at the University of Kent. This issue includes nine papers selected from more than 50 papers presented at the seminar. Articles published use a range of econometric and simulation methods to provide a suite of case studies. Topics studied range from such fundamental issues as what constitutes a small farm to recent trends in the diversification of small farms and their integration into modern globalized food chains. Several papers emphasize the link between agricultural policy development and the future of small farms.     

Finding default? Understanding the drivers of default on contracts with farmers’ organizations under the World Food Programme Purchase for progress pilot

During the past two decades, food assistance policy has shifted toward local or regional food purchases and away from purchases from donor countries. Although most local and regional procurement occurs through hard tendering processes open to large‐scale firms and farms, there is growing interest in identifying how and whether to procure from smallholder farmer organizations (FOs). To date, little is known about the drivers of successful contracting with FOs. We utilize data from the United Nations World Food Programme Purchase for Progress pilot in three East African countries to predict defaults on contracts. We examine four possible explanations: country contexts, FO characteristics, prior experience with contracts, and contract modalities and their relationship to local spot market prices. The single most important predictor of default is the increase in market prices between contract approval and delivery. Yet, although increases in market prices are linked to increases in default, this relationship is decreasing in contract size, indicating search costs associated with breaking contracts. Our findings yield both generalizable and context‐specific insights about whether—and when—procuring from smallholder farmers can be successfully integrated into the food assistance toolkit.     

Does a “Blue Revolution” help the poor? Evidence from Bangladesh

The rapid growth in aquaculture production, globally and in Bangladesh is well documented. Over 2000–2010, per capita production of aquaculture grew 76%, while the consumer price of fish declined 45%. Previous studies have suggested pro‐poor effects of aquaculture based on fish production and consumption patterns. This study attempts to quantify the contribution of aquaculture to income growth and poverty reduction in Bangladesh, using household survey data and a microsimulation approach based on an expanded version of Deaton's concept of net benefit ratio. We estimate that aquaculture's contribution to income growth between 2000 and 2010 was 2.1%, including both price and quantity effects. This income growth was translated into poverty reduction of 1.7 percentage points. Although these estimates seem small, they represent almost 10% of the overall poverty reduction in Bangladesh during the first decade of the 21st century. Put differently, of the 18 million Bengalis who escaped poverty during 2000–2010, about 1.8 million of them managed to do so because of the rapid growth in aquaculture, which contributed to rural income while making fish more accessible to consumers.     

What’s next for the Renewable Energy Target – resolving Australia’s integration of energy and climate change policy?*

Australian climate change policy and its integration with Australia’s electricity markets have been fraught for at least two decades. The only enduring policy has been the Commonwealth Renewable Energy Target (RET). Despite the relative success of the RET in driving investment and reducing emissions, state governments have now pivoted towards contracts-for-difference (Cfds). In this article, we outline the issues associated with policy discontinuity and the large-scale RET and review its effectiveness as an emissions reduction tool and driver of electricity sector abatement. We find that the RET has been relatively successful across the key criteria of cost and emissions reductions and is a better policy instrument than contracts-for-difference, which are increasingly being adopted by state governments. Building on the work of Nelson et al. (2020), we propose a new approach, which would allow for continued use of Cfds but utilising the RET’s policy architecture.     

Does Spatial Dependence Affect the Intention to Make Land Available for Bioenergy Crops?

We find spatial dependence in landowners’ stated intentions to make land available for bioenergy crops. Our data are generated from a contingent valuation survey of 599 owners of marginal land in southern Michigan. Employing a Bayesian framework and using these spatially explicit data, we estimate and compare non‐spatial probit and spatial Durbin probit models to examine the presence of spatial dependence in land rental intentions. Results show that intentions to rent land for bioenergy crop production are spatially dependent. This spatial dependence arises both from the land supply intentions of nearby landowners and from spatial spillover effects of landowner characteristics and attitudes towards environmental amenities and the disamenities of land rental. We show that ignoring spatial dependence in the intentions of neighbouring landowners to participate in land rental markets for bioenergy feedstocks can lead to distortions that underestimate total effects. Our finding implies that studies of land use and crop supply should test for spatial interactions in order to make accurate inferences.     

Payments for environmental services to promote “climate‐smart agriculture”? Potential and challenges

Payments for environmental services (PES) have gained wide popularity as approaches to promote environmentally friendly land use or agricultural production practices. Yet academics have also voiced concerns against seeing PES as a panacea. This article discusses whether PES is an appropriate and promising approach to promote so‐called “climate‐smart agriculture” (CSA) practices, which we define as agricultural production practices that contribute to CO₂ emission reductions and/or removals and provide benefits to farmers via increased productivity and profits and reduced vulnerability to climate change. PES appears most promising for the promotion of CSA practices in small‐scale farming contexts with low incomes. Effective design, however, requires solid estimates of cost and benefit flows from CSA adoption over time, accounting for differences in socioeconomic and ecological conditions, and addressing the risk of leakage. Funding for such PES will likely have to come from public sources, and seems most promising where synergies with other objectives such as agricultural development, food security, and climate adaptation or other environmental services exist. The potential of alternative approaches for CSA support such as taxation with rebates for CSA practices, CSA‐related investment support such as microcredits, and hybrid approaches such as conditional microcredit should be further investigated.     

Does Participation in the Food Stamp Program Increase the Prevalence of Obesity and Health Care Spending?

We use panel data techniques and information on state-level Food Stamp Program characteristics to obtain unbiased estimates of the impact of Food Stamp Program participation on weight status and health care spending among nonelderly adults. Our results suggest that program participation by women leads to a 5.9% (p = 0.07) increase in their likelihood of overweight and obesity, which is smaller than previous estimates, and to higher medical expenditures. The direct effect of program participation on medical spending through higher discretionary income is significantly larger than the indirect effect through changes in weight status.     

Disaggregating the Demand for Pesticides: Does it Matter?

This paper analyzes the demand of French farmers for pesticides by disaggregating among the three main categories of pesticides. We estimate the demand elasticities of herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides with respect to pesticide expenditure, and also consider crop differentiation. We retain a Linear Approximated Almost Ideal Demand System specification. A Full‐Information Maximum Likelihood estimation procedure is used to deal with corner solution problems and censored data. The estimation is based on two cross‐sections covering pesticide use of three major crops cultivated in France in 2001 and 2006. Our results show that farmers' response to price variation is very low, especially for 2001. Furthermore, elasticities of pesticide expenditure are significantly different across categories: the highest levels are obtained for fungicides and the lowest ones for insecticides. Finally, we find higher own‐price elasticities for herbicides and fungicides than for insecticides, which are less frequently used.