新一轮国际粮食价格上涨：原因及对中国市场的影响

[目的]随着中国粮食进口不断增加,国内外市场联系越来越紧密。2020年下半年以来,国际市场粮食价格快速上涨,对国内粮食市场产生一定影响,分析国际市场价格上涨的原因和影响对确保国内粮食供应稳定、保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。[方法]文章分析了2019年以来小麦、大米、玉米、大豆4种粮食产品的国内外价格走势,从供需状况、贸易政策、气候变化等因素分析国际市场价格波动的原因,并探讨了国际价格对国内价格的影响。[结果]当前全球主要粮食品种供应充足,库存仍处于较高水平,此轮国际粮食价格上涨主要是受到美国等发达国家宽松的货币政策以及疫情后全球消费逐步回暖的影响;但国际市场价格上涨对中国市场的影响总体有限,国内小麦、大米、玉米价格上涨的主因是国内消费回暖和生猪产能恢复带动的饲用需求快速增长,油用大豆受国际市场的影响较大。[结论]为稳定国内粮食市场,避免国际市场的冲击,中国要进一步提升粮食综合生产能力,强化科技支撑,加强粮食储备管理,健全政策支持体系,并引导居民建立科学的消费观念。     

The transmission of world maize price to South African maize market: a threshold cointegration approach

This article seeks to provide an explanation for the relationship between domestic maize price in South Africa and world maize prices in order to evaluate comovement and transmission of world prices to domestic prices in sub‐Sahara African countries. This is done by comparing nested and nonnested models that capture different forms of nonlinearity in the price spread. Adopting a Bayesian approach that allows for comparison of models using Bayes factor, we found that the relationship between South African price and world price for maize indicates the presence of nonlinearity in price transmission with three regimes that is triggered by the price spread in previous period.     

Price shock transmission: evidence from the wheat‐bread market value chain in Ethiopia

This study assesses the degree of vertical price transmission along the wheat‐bread value chain in Ethiopia. This is pursued by applying a vector error correction model and an impulse response analysis using monthly price data for the period 2000–2015. Our analysis considers transmission of price shocks across different market levels, including from the international and domestic wheat grain markets at the upstream to the domestic wheat bread market at the downstream of the value chain. The empirical findings indicate that significant cointegration exists across prices of the different market stages. There is a transmission from international prices to domestic prices at downstream markets, in particular to flour and bread prices. Prices at upstream markets are largely influenced by the domestic wholesale market. In general, the speed of adjustment is quite slow with a half‐life of about one year for restoring the equilibrium price relationship. As price margins between the different market stages in the value chain have substantially decreased in the last 15 years, higher transmission, and thus exposure to international market shocks, can be expected in the future. The results also show that causal relationships exist between prices at different market stages—with the wholesale market identified as the key market level where prices and price expectations are formed.     

Food insecurity,income inequality,and the changing comparative advantage in world agriculture

I would like to argue in this article that in the process of economic development in land‐poor countries in Asia, agriculture faces three distinctly different problems: food insecurity, sectoral income inequality, and the declining food self‐sufficiency associated with the declining comparative advantage in agriculture at the high‐income stage. Massive imports of food grains to Asia, if they occur, will aggravate the world food shortage, which will have significant implications for the poverty incidence in the world. I argue that in order to avoid such a tragedy, Asia should expand farm size to reduce labor cost by adopting large‐scale mechanization, sub‐Saharan Africa should realize a green revolution in grain production, and Latin America should further expand its grain production capacity.     

Toward a consumer economy in China: implications of changing wage policies for U.S. cotton exports

The effect of a Chinese minimum wage increase on China's textile market as well as on the world cotton market is evaluated. Based on a Nonlinear Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (NQAIDS) model of China's textile demand, the results suggest that the income elasticity for textiles is around 0.6 in China, and that apparel is less price responsive than home textiles and other textile products. Simulation results suggest that a minimum wage increase would raise Chinese domestic textile consumption and lower Chinese textile exports. Most of the decline in textile exports by China is offset by expansion in other countries’ domestic textile production and results in a slight increase in world cotton mill utilization and higher clothing prices.     

The growing importance of the former USSR countries in world agricultural markets

The major countries of the former Soviet Union—specifically Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan—are becoming increasingly important in world agricultural markets. The two main developments are that this region has become a large grain exporter, especially of wheat and barley, and Russia a big agricultural importer, especially of meat. These trends should continue for the next decade. However, policies to expand the livestock sector could mitigate these developments, as increased domestic meat production would reduce both meat imports and surplus feed grain for export. Also, further growth in the region's grain exports will require improvement in the infrastructure for storing and transporting grain.     

Grain price stabilization in India: Evaluation of policy alternatives

Stabilization of prices is an important element of food policy in India as in most other countries — both developing and eveloped. However, since the magnitude of grain stocks held for this purpose as well as the costs of physical storage have become prohibitively high, there is now a need for finding cost-effective alternatives including non interventionist and market-oriented methods for price stabilization. In this paper we consider the case of rice and wheat which are staple foodgrains in India. We make a comparison between alternative price stabilization policies including that of holding buffer stocks in terms of their impact on domestic price stability, producer and consumer welfare and government costs. A multi-market equilibrium framework is used where private storage, consumption, supply and prices of rice and wheat are determined simultaneously. Indian exports and imports are assumed to affect world prices. The alternative price stabilizing mechanisms are ranked according to both the criteria, welfare and price stability achieved. The main findings are as follows. The ranking of alternatives varies with the criterion used. Greater price stability need not necessarily imply greater welfare. The option of variable levies on private external trade turns out to be the most inexpensive and that of domestic buffer stocks the costliest in achieving price stability. Further, the efficacy of buffer stocks and subsidy to private storage in stabilizing prices is lower under free trade as compared to the case where the economy is closed to private external trade.     

Decompositions of corn price effects: implications for feed grain demand and livestock supply

This article examines how corn prices affect the demand for feed grains and the supply of livestock outputs. The differential approach to the theory of the multiproduct firm is employed to examine ex ante decisions about feed grain demand and livestock supply. The estimation results suggest that livestock producers have little flexibility in adjusting the demand for corn in response to an increase in corn prices. The substitutable relationship between corn and distillers’ grains contributes to alleviating pressures on feed costs in response to high corn prices. In addition, the estimation results highlight that the composition of livestock supply can be altered by changes in livestock prices. On the basis of the estimated elasticities, the decompositions of profit‐maximizing input demand are conducted to examine the effects of changes in corn prices on feed grain demand and livestock supply. The decomposition results reveal that an increase in corn prices reduces corn demand but raises the demand for distillers’ grains mainly due to the substitution effects of corn price changes. The decomposition results also show that an increase in the price of corn reduces cattle supply but raises the supply of chicken and pork due to the output relationships in supply.     

Inter‐ and intra‐seasonal crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility

Understanding how producers make decisions to allot acreage among crops and how decisions about land use are affected by changes in prices and their volatility is fundamental for predicting the supply of staple crops and, hence, assessing the global food supply situation. This study makes estimations of monthly (i.e., seasonal) versus annual global acreage response models for the world's principal staple food crops: wheat, corn, soybeans, and rice. Primary emphasis is given to the magnitude and speed of the allocation process. Estimation of intra‐annual acreage elasticity is crucial for expected food supply and for input demand, especially in the light of the recent short‐term volatility in food prices. The econometric results indicate that global crop acreage responds to crop prices and price risks, input costs as well as a time trend. Depending on respective crop, short‐run elasticities are about 0.05 to 0.40; price volatility tends to reduce acreage for some of the crops; comparison of the annual and the monthly acreage response elasticities suggests that acreage adjusts seasonally around the globe to new information and expectations. Given the seasonality of agriculture, time is of an essence for acreage response. The analysis indicates that acreage allocation is more sensitive to prices in the northern hemisphere spring than in winter and the response varies across months.     

El Niño,La Niña,and world coffee price dynamics

Coffee is produced in equatorial and subequatorial regions of the world, which are also most affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO events have a tendency to amplify weather conditions such as droughts or excess precipitation in the affected regions, resulting in production shortage or excess supply, subsequently impacting agricultural commodity prices. In this research we assess effects of ENSO events on world coffee price dynamics using the monthly data between March 1989 and December 2010. We employ smooth transition autoregression framework to examine nonlinear dynamics of ENSO and coffee prices, and illustrate the results of this research using generalized impulse‐response functions. We find that ENSO events indeed have short‐term impacts on coffee prices. The research findings are of interest to coffee producers and intermediaries in the coffee markets as well as researchers in the fields of environmental and development economics.     

Competition for land in the global bioeconomy

The global land use implications of biofuel expansion have received considerable attention in the literature over the past decade. Model‐based estimates of the emissions from cropland expansion have been used to assess the environmental impacts of biofuel policies. And integrated assessment models have estimated the potential for biofuels to contribute to greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement over the coming century. All of these studies feature, explicitly or implicitly, competition between biofuel feed stocks and other land uses. However, the economic mechanisms governing this competition, as well as the contribution of biofuels to global land use change, have not received the close scrutiny that they deserve. The purpose of this article is to offer a deeper look at these factors. We begin with a comparative static analysis which assesses the impact of exogenously specified forecasts of biofuel expansion over the period: 2006–2035. Global land use change is decomposed according to the three key margins of economic response: extensive supply, intensive supply, and demand. Under the International Energy Agency's “New Policies” scenario, biofuels account for nearly one‐fifth of global land use change over the 2006–2035 period. The article also offers a comparative dynamic analysis which determines the optimal path for first and second generation biofuels over the course of the entire 21st century. In the absence of GHG regulation, the welfare‐maximizing path for global land use, in the face of 3% annual growth in oil prices, allocates 225 Mha to biofuel feed stocks by 2100, with the associated biofuels accounting for about 30% of global liquid fuel consumption. This area expansion is somewhat diminished by expected climate change impacts on agriculture, while it is significantly increased by an aggressive GHG emissions target and by advances in conversion efficiency of second generation biofuels.     

Impacts of trade liberalizations under the Uruguay Round on the world sugar market

The impacts of the Uruguay Round policy provisions on the world sugar market show that these policies will stabilize the world sugar price at slightly higher levels than in the baseline. Global sugar consumption will increase as a result of the income growth caused by the Uruguay Round. Economic resources will be allocated more efficiently among the sugar industries of the various countries. However, the impacts on the sugar industries in countries with strong producer supports will be rather small because the negotiation process of the Uruguay Round has accommodated the changes in sugar policies already implemented by individual countries in the past few years. Low-cost sugar producing countries will benefit from the higher world sugar price, and consumers in countries with protected markets will benefit from lower domestic prices.     

国际大米价格波动对国内大米价格的传递效应研究

［目的］国际粮食价格波动会对国内粮食价格产生影响,其影响程度和途径一直是农产品价格领域的研究热点。［方法］基于2002年1月至2017年6月的月度数据,运用Johansen协整检验和向量误差修正模型检验了国际大米价格与国内大米价格的长期均衡与短期输入关系,在考虑国内大米价格形成机制的基础上分析了国际大米价格的影响程度,并进一步检验了大米与其他粮食品种价格间的整合关系。［结果］（1）国内大米价格与国际大米价格保持长期均衡关系,短期内国内大米价格对国际大米价格波动的弹性为00226。（2）国际大米价格对国内大米价格具有显著的影响,在控制其他变量不变的前提下,国际大米价格每上涨1%,国内大米价格会上升约01%。（3）Johansen协整检验表明大米会与其他粮食品种价格保持长期整合关系,国际大米价格上涨可能会通过间接渠道传递至国内大米市场。［结论］因此不仅需要关注国际大米价格对国内大米价格的影响,还需要关注其他粮食品种对大米价格的影响。     

Public agricultural R&D over the past half century: an emerging new world order

Recent trends in farm productivity and food prices raise concerns about whether the era of global agricultural abundance is over. Agricultural R&D is a crucial determinant of agricultural productivity and production, and therefore food prices and poverty. In this article, we present entirely new evidence on investments in public agricultural R&D worldwide as an indicator of the prospects for agricultural productivity growth over the coming decades. The agricultural R&D world is changing, and in ways that will definitely affect future global patterns of poverty, hunger, and other outcomes. The overall picture is one in which the middle‐income countries are growing in relative importance as producers of agricultural innovations through investments in R&D, and have consequently better prospects as producers of agricultural products.     

The impact of food price increases on caloric intake in China

World food prices have increased dramatically in recent years. We use panel data from 2006 to examine the impact of these increases on the consumption and nutrition of poor households in two Chinese provinces. We find that households in Hunan suffered no nutrition declines. Households in Gansu experienced a small decline in calories, though the decline is on par with usual seasonal effects. The overall nutritional impact of the world price increase was small because households were able to substitute to cheaper foods and because the domestic prices of staple foods remained low due to government intervention in grain markets.     

Higher fuel and food prices: impacts and responses for Mozambique

Rising world prices for fuel and food represent a negative terms‐of‐trade shock for Mozambique. The impacts of these price rises are analyzed using various approaches. Detailed price data show that the world price increases are being transmitted to domestic prices. Short‐run net benefit ratio analysis indicates that urban households and households in the southern region are more vulnerable to food price increases. Rural households, particularly in the North and Center, often benefit from being in a net seller position. Longer‐term analysis using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Mozambique indicates that the fuel price shock dominates rising food prices from both macroeconomic and poverty perspectives. Again, negative impacts are larger in urban areas. The importance of agricultural production response in general and export response in particular is highlighted. Policy analysis reveals difficult trade‐offs between short‐run mitigation and long‐run growth. Improved agricultural productivity has powerful positive impacts, but remains difficult to achieve and may not address the immediate impacts of higher prices.     

Post–Uruguay Round price linkages between developed and developing countries: the case of rice and wheat markets

The Uruguay Round Agreement on agriculture attempted to lower distortions in global agricultural markets. However, the significant fall in commodity prices in the late 1990s may have reduced the incentives for both developed and developing countries to better integrate into world markets. This study analyzes price linkages and adjustment between developed and developing countries during the post–Uruguay Round period. Prices of two key commodities, long‐grain rice and medium‐hard wheat, are assembled for major exporters and producers. Results of multivariate cointegration analysis suggest partial market integration between developed and developing countries in the post–Uruguay Round period. Developed countries are found to be price leaders in these two markets, and in most cases, changes in their prices have relatively large impacts on those of the developing countries. Developing countries (e.g., Vietnam and Argentina) have faced considerable price adjustment due to changes in the developed countries' prices.     

Challenges of trade and agricultural development for East/Central Europe and states of the former USSR

The agricultural transition in Central and Eastern Europe and the former USSR reflects a fundamental change in development strategy, and will have a profound impact on agricultural trade. The greatest impact will be indirect, through agriculture's contribution to general economic reform and acceleration of regional and global growth. The direct impact on trade in food and fiber will in aggregate consist of a fall in net imports. Most of the decline in net imports will derive from reduction in demand and improved utilization. Potential for productivity increase is substantial, but not all of the increased productivity will be reflected in the traditional supply response of increased production. Instead marginal resources will shift out of farming, and producers will restructure and adopt new technologies in pursuit of lower costs. Shifts in the commodity composition of trade will occur, and the changes in grain and livestock markets will be greatest. If the reform is successful, the former Soviet Union could become a modest net grain exporter instead of a large importer. Wheat would be the leading export grain, and levels of wheat exports and corn imports could become quite sensitive to relative prices on world markets.     

High food commodity prices: will they stay? who will pay?

Much of the public discussion of the food price crisis has focused on the sharply increased use of food commodities for biofuel production, framing debate in simple food versus fuel terms. Reality is more complex. Multiple forces drove food prices to high levels and, according to findings we report in this article, these forces will sustain high prices over the medium term. We also find that the distinction between high world prices for food commodities and the consumer costs of food is an important one to make. Food consumers do not buy raw food commodities at international prices. The degree to which the price of traded food commodities and the price of food are related depends on a long list of factors, most of which operate to dampen price transmission. In the search for appropriate policy response, it is essential to measure consumer effects correctly and to apportion properly the causes of current high prices.     

Roundup Ready soybeans in Argentina: farm level and aggregate welfare effects

Although adoption rates of genetically modified crops have been staggering in some countries, there is still comparatively little evidence about biotechnology impacts under diverse agroecological and institutional conditions. These knowledge gaps lead to an overly precautious attitude among policy makers and the public. This article analyzes the effects of Roundup Ready (RR) soybeans in Argentina, the country with the second biggest transgenic area worldwide. Based on recent survey data, it is shown that the technology increases total factor productivity by 10% on average, with cost savings being somewhat more pronounced for smaller than for larger farms. The reduction in use of toxic herbicides and of tillage operations entails positive environmental repercussions. Aggregate welfare effects are computed over the 1996–2001 period with a three-region, partial equilibrium model, comprising Argentina, the United States, and the rest of the world. In 2001, RR soybeans created more than US$1.2 billion of economic surplus at the global level. The largest share went to consumers (53%), followed by seed and biotechnology firms (34%), and agricultural producers (13%). Due to comparatively weak intellectual property protection, and thus only small technology mark-ups in seed prices and widespread adoption, Argentine soybean growers receive 90% of the benefits in that country. This demonstrates that farmers in developing countries can gain considerably when they obtain access to suitable foreign innovations through technology spill-overs.