Réactions du Marché d’Actions aux Chocs sur les Taux d’Intérêt de Court Terme,le Cas d’un Marché Emergent: la Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières (BRVM)

Abstract: Macroeconomics in general and interest rate policy in particular are believed, from a theoretical point of view, to act on stock market movements. This paper discusses this issue in the case of the West African stock market by studying the Regional Securities Exchange (la Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières (BRVM)) stock market reactions to interest rates innovations. Our results, based on VAR analysis, show that the BRVM stock market does not react immediately to short‐run interest rates’ innovations. Nevertheless, backed reactions occur in imminent periods: at the earliest in the second period and at the latest in the sixth period according to VAR models used. Long‐term effects of short‐term interest rates’ innovations on stock prices returns depend on models specified, on the kind of interest rate and on data frequency. Thus, the long‐term effect of central bank rent rates’ innovations is relatively more important than the one related to interbank rate's innovations. The previous situation of the market is, however, the main determinant of the change of stock prices. Our results show also that stock prices and short‐run interest rates have a similar reaction to both exchange rate and inflation rate's innovations.     

Does insurance‐growth nexus hold for Malaysia?

The study investigates the impact of insurance activities on economic growth in Malaysia over the period 1990–2015. Combined cointegration in the presence of identified structural breaks was used to confirm the existence of long‐run relationships among economic growth, insurance activities, human capital, physical capital, and industrial production. The findings indicate feedback effects between insurance activities and economic growth in the long run. The study provides new insights for policymaking to enhance economic growth via insurance activities.     

Human Capital and Economic Growth in Asia 1890–2000: A Time‐series Analysis*

There is a general consensus that human capital is a major factor behind long‐run economic growth. Yet, on a macro level, the empirical results do not always seem to concur with this view. To explain this gap between theory and empirics, more focus has been laid on measurement error and data quality. Using an alternative estimate of the stock of human capital, based on Judson (2002), we find evidence that the two major views on the role of human capital in economic development by Lucas (1988) and Romer (1990) coexist and are by no means mutually exclusive. Using a Johansen cointegration test, we find that in India and Indonesia the level of human capital is cointegrated with the level of aggregate income during the whole 20th century, which confirms the theory of Lucas (1988). In Japan, however, the Lucasian approach can be verified only for the first half of the century, while after 1950 there is cointegration between the growth rate of aggregate income and the level of human capital, which is in line with Romer's view.     

创新型人才对江苏省经济发展贡献率分析

为了检测创新型人才培养对经济增长的贡献率,以江苏省为研究对象,利用Cobb – Douglas生产函数建立物质资本、劳动力投入及创新型人才与经济发展关系的函数模型,使用SPSS26.0软件计算上述各要素对经济发展的贡献率。结果表明,江苏省创新型人才对经济发展贡献在2011年开始下降后,于2017年开始有回升趋势,但创新型人才存量的增长率变化不稳定,仍然需要有力的人才培养和引进措施才能保证稳定的创新型人才存量增长,以此来提供合理的经济发展形式,使经济得以持续健康发展。     

An Empirical Analysis of Provincial Productivity in China (1979–2001)

This study estimates and analyzes provincial productivity growth in China for the period 1979–2001. The Malmquist Index approach allows us to decompose productivity growth into two components, technological progress and efficiency change. Considerable productivity growth was found for most of the data period, but it was accomplished mainly through technological progress rather than efficiency improvement. Although China's capital stock has accumulated at record speed in recent years, our findings show that TFP growth slowed down significantly during 1995–2001. The study thus raises serious questions about whether China's recent growth pattern is consistent with its comparative advantages, and whether its reliance on capital accumulation can be sustained in the long run.     

Dynamic Scoring in a Romer‐Style Economy

This article analyzes how changes in tax rates affect government revenue in a Romer‐style endogenous growth model. Lower tax rates on financial income (returns to physical capital and intellectual property) are partially self‐financing primarily because lower financial income taxes stimulate innovation and enhance labor productivity in the long run. In the baseline calibration, about half of a tax cut is self‐financing in the long run, substantially more than in the Ramsey model. The dynamics of the economy's response to a tax cut are very sluggish and, for some variables, nonmonotonic.     

人力资本存量贬损研究

长期以来人们热衷于研究人力资本增值在经济增长中的作用,却忽略了人力资本存量贬损。人力资本存量贬损是人力资本的逆态增值或负增值,和人力资本增值一样,也是市场的常态现象。中国经济快速发展、产业结构不断调整催生出的技术性失业和结构性失业,发出了人力资本存量贬损的信号。本文界定人力资本存量贬损的概念,分析其特点,剖析发生贬损的原因,旨在推动个人、企业和政府,及时有效地将社会资源配置到产业结构升级、经济结构转变、技术进步需要的人力资本上。     

Institutions,Capital, and Growth

The international development community has encouraged investment in physical and human capital as a precursor to economic progress. Recent evidence shows, however, that increases in capital do not always lead to increases in output. We develop a growth model where the allocation and productivity of capital depends on a country's institutions. We find that increases in physical and human capital lead to output growth only in countries with good institutions. In countries with bad institutions, increases in capital lead to negative growth rates because additions to the capital stock tend to be employed in rent‐seeking and other socially unproductive activities.     

AN ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA

This paper analyses long‐term trends in the development of South Africa's economic infrastructure and discusses their relationship with the country's long‐term economic growth. A database covering national accounts data, railways, roads, ports, air travel, phone lines and electricity was established for this purpose, and may facilitate further quantitative research. PSS (Pesaran, Shin and Smith, 1996, 2001) F‐tests are used to identify directions of association between economic infrastructure and economic growth. These indicate long‐run forcing relationships from public‐sector economic infrastructure investment and fixed capital stock to gross domestic product (GDP), from roads to GDP, and from GDP to a range of other types of infrastructure. There is also evidence of potential simultaneity between specific types of infrastructure and GDP. The evidence suggests three main findings. Firstly, the relationship between economic infrastructure and economic growth appears to run in both directions. Inadequate investment in infrastructure could create bottlenecks, and opportunities for promoting economic growth could be missed. Secondly, South Africa's stock of economic infrastructure has developed in phases. Policymakers should focus on choosing or encouraging the right type of infrastructure at the right time. Thirdly, the need for investment in economic infrastructure never goes away. The maintenance and expansion of infrastructure are important dimensions of supporting economic activity in a growing economy, provided that individual projects are chosen on the basis of appropriate cost‐benefit analyses.     

A new class of production functions and an argument against purely labor‐augmenting technical change

This paper derives the macro‐level production function from idea‐based microfoundations. Labor‐augmenting and capital‐augmenting developments are assumed to be Pareto‐distributed and mutually dependent. Using the Clayton copula family to capture this dependence, a new “Clayton–Pareto” class of production functions is derived that nests both the Cobb–Douglas and the constant elasticity of substitution. In the most general case, technical change is not purely labor‐augmenting over the long run, but it augments both capital and labor. Under certain parametrizations, the derived elasticity of substitution between capital and labor exceeds unity and, therefore, gives rise to long‐run endogenous growth.     

基础设施资本回报率的估算及影响因素研究

文章在合理界定并调整基础设施统计口径基础上，运用永续盘存法非传统途径和生产函数法谨慎测算了基础设施的全套资本存量和资本回报率，并构造1993-2016年省级面板数据，从三个方面分解并检验了基础设施资本回报率的影响因素。研究发现：（1）全国生产性基础设施资本存量急剧攀升，年均增速达到12.6%。其中，经济基础设施存量持续高于社会基础设施。（2）基础设施资本回报率呈现倒"U"型变动趋势，且在不同基础设施类型和区域间保持稳健。其中，社会基础设施的资本回报率整体高于经济基础设施，东部地区的基础设施资本回报率高于中部地区，西部地区则长期处于低位运行。（3）基于基础设施资本产出比不断上升是其资本回报率持续下降的主因这一判断，进一步证实基础设施投资率及其资本深化程度，以及人力资本积累、城镇化等因素整体上均显著影响基础设施资本回报率。     

Who Plays the Key Role among Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong Stock Markets？

In this paper we examine the daily frequency stock market indices of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong from January 2000 to June 2012, and use the Morlet wavelet coherence model to determine who is playing the most important role in the financial markets of China. We find that there are significant comovements between these stock markets in the medium and long run. This provides investors with opportunities to increase their capital gains. The Hong Kong stock market plays a leading role in the long run, but its leader position is threatened by fast‐growing Chinese mainland stock markets, especially the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Based on our analysis, the following suggestions apply to the Chinese stock markets: establish and improve international and regional finance centers in Chinese mainland; encourage more qualified institutional investors; reposition the market relations among Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen; and increase deregulation and internationalization to speed up the integration of financial resources.     

Robust Monetary Framework for China

I. Introduction China has made tremendous gains in terms of economic growth in the last 15 years, by inviting foreign direct investment and increasing manufacturing production and exports. The currency unification (devaluation of the official rate and unification of the official and market rates) in 1994 also contributed to the efficiency in the monetary and foreign exchange systems. China was not severely affected by the Asian currency crisis of 1997–1998, and instead China helped the regio…     

Women of an uncertain age: quantifying human capital accumulation in rural Ireland in the nineteenth century†

Geary and Stark find that Ireland's post‐Famine per capita GDP converged with British levels, and that this convergence was largely due to total factor productivity growth rather than mass emigration. In this article, new long‐run measurements of human capital accumulation in Ireland are devised in order to facilitate a better assessment of sources of this productivity growth, including the relative contribution of men and women. This is done by exploiting the frequency at which age data heap at round ages, widely interpreted as an indicator of a population's basic numeracy skills. Because Földvári, van Leeuwen, and van Leeuwen‐Li find that gender‐specific trends in this measure derived from census returns are biased by who is reporting and recording the age information, any computed numeracy trends are corrected using data from prison and workhouse registers, sources in which women ostensibly self‐reported their age. The findings show that rural Irish women born early in the nineteenth century had substantially lower levels of human capital than uncorrected census data would otherwise suggest. These results are large in magnitude and thus economically significant. The speed at which women converged is consistent with Geary and Stark's interpretation of Irish economic history; Ireland probably graduated to Europe's club of advanced economies thanks in part to rapid advances in female human capital.     

Multiple Forces Driving China＇s Economic Development： A New Analytic Framework

Based on economic growth theory and the World Bank's analytical framework relating to the quality of growth, the present paper constructs a framework that encompasses physical, international, human, natural and knowledge capital to synthetically interpret economic development. After defining the five types of capital and total capital, we analyze the dynamic changes of these types of capital in China and in other countries. The results show that since China's reform and opening up, knowledge, international, human and physical capital have grown rapidly, with speeds of growth higher than that of economic growth. As the five types of capital have all increased at varying paces, the savings level of total capital in China has quadrupled in 25 years and overtook that of the USA in the 1990s. The changes in the five types of capital and total capital reveal that there are progressively multiple driving forces behind China's rapid economic development. Implications for China's long-term economic development are thereby raised.     

Human capital,innovation, and growth

This paper explores the interaction between human capital and innovation in the process of economic growth. Using a model of endogenous growth, we focus on how taxes and other policy instruments affect the incentives to invest in human capital. In contrast to many other growth models we find that the taxation of human capital has a substantial negative effect on its accumulation. This in turn reduces innovation and, consequently, the income growth rate. More surprisingly, other policies that are intended to stimulate growth may have opposing effects on innovation and the accumulation of human capital. For example, while subsidies to research and to intermediate inputs do have positive effects on innovation and growth, they lead to a lower stock of human capital, in the empirically relevant case when the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is low.     

COLONIALISM AND LONG‐RUN GROWTH IN AUSTRALIA: AN EXAMINATION OF INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE IN VICTORIA'S WATER SECTOR DURING THE NINETEENTH CENTURY

Institutional change in water rights in the nineteenth century Australian colony of Victoria raised institutional efficiency, which contributed to long‐run economic growth. High‐quality human capital and the extension of voting rights (franchise) were crucial for efficient institutional change in the water sector. Quality human capital (literacy) appeared to increase the rural population's awareness of the economic impact of the existing structure of water rights that may have constrained growth in the agricultural sector and reduced investment incentives. Extension of the franchise allowed the rural population to exert political pressure for enactment of change in water rights, which resulted in efficiency‐enhancing policies and efficient institutions. The findings show these two factors were more important than Victoria's British colonial heritage in determining whether growth‐enhancing institutional change took place.     

Health and Productivity: Panel Data Evidence from Ethiopia

Abstract: Neoclassical growth models and endogenous growth theories show the positive contribution of human capital to growth. Using household panel data (1994–2000) on individuals who reported their wages in urban Ethiopia, we estimated a relationship between health measures (i.e. proxied by height and BMI) and wages (which proxies productivity/growth). Our findings from the IV quantile regression estimates indicate that productivity is positively and significantly affected by education, height and BMI. The return to BMI is important both at the lower and upper end of the wage distribution. The return to height is significant only at the end of the wage distribution. The substantive content of the results (i.e. the high‐nutrition and high‐productivity equilibrium story) does not change even if we did not control for endogeneity of schooling. Non‐parametric evidence also supports the strong and positive relationship between productivity and our indicators of human capital.     

China's economic development: does exchange rate and FDI nexus matter?

This study aims to investigate the relationship between China's exchange rate, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, and economic development. We applied the bound testing approach on aggregate level data from 1981 to 2013. The results showed that the Chinese economy benefitted from a lower exchange rate over this period, and that there was a direct link between FDI inflows and economic development on an aggregate level both in the long and short run. The results of the Granger causality test identified a long‐ and short‐run association among these variables. The GMM estimations with dummies for financial crises and RMB exchange rate policy fluctuations also confirmed the growth enhancing impact of the exchange rate and FDI inflows. To promote sustainable economic development in the future, China should focus on improving the levels of domestic investment and human capital, as well as supervising the level of openness and capital controls.