Central Bank Independence in Transition Economies

The paper discusses recent changes in central bank laws and the relationship between inflation and central bank independence in transition economies. Two indices of legal independence are constructed, covering political and economic aspects of independence. Most of the countries experienced high-inflation episodes in the recent past and changes introduced to the laws after, or simultaneously, with stabilization programmes strengthened the position of the central banks. In further analysis, an inverse relationship emerges between inflation and indices of central bank independence. However, the robust relationship is present only at a high level of economic liberalization. This conclusion is supported by results from regressions on time-aggregated and panel data, even after controlling for the government fiscal position and the absence/presence of an IMF stabilization package.     

Environmental Financing in European Economies in Transition

The paper offers a perspective on environmental predicament of economies in transition. Emphasis is put on how these economies finance their environmental needs. It is observed that the demand for environmental financing can be affected both by environmental policy measures (such as internalization of externalities) and by other factors (such as the softness of budget constraints faced by firms). The role of subsidies – in many countries of the Central and Eastern European region provided through special purpose ‘environmental funds’ – is then scrutinized. In particular the question is asked whether such funds crowd out commercial capital from the market. Conditions are discussed that would allow the funds to play their constructive environmental roles without crowding out private financing.     

Teacher and Student Economic Understanding in Transition Economies

This study describes a new data set and uses it for an exploratory investigation of whether seminars for teachers conducted by the National Council on Economic Education through its International Education Exchange Program (IEEP) had a beneficial effect on the economic understanding of the high school students of these teachers. The data were collected using a non-equivalent control group design that sorted teachers into two groups based on whether or not they participated in an IEEP seminar. Pre- and posttests of economics were administered to the students of these teachers in Lithuania, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, and Poland. The exploratory results showed a larger increase in the economic understanding of students of teachers who participated in the IEEP seminars compared with students of teachers who did not. The results also showed that knowledge of economics among IEEP teachers was a factor for improving student achievement in economics. The findings should be viewed with caution because of data limitations.     

The Coevolution of Finance and Property Rights: Evidence from Transition Economies

The transition from communism to capitalism was necessarily accompanied by a sudden and abrupt increase in the financialization of society. This increase occurred in an environment that, even now, still has little experience with or expertise in financialization. Given that financialization occurred simultaneously with the growth and evolution of other political and economic institutions, the question arises: What was the effect on these other nascent institutions like property rights? This article empirically analyzes the relationship between financialization and property rights in transition countries. Using a unique monthly database of twenty transition countries over a period from 1989 to 2012, this article finds that the influence of financialization depends on which definition of “financialization” is used. In particular, increases in basic financial intermediation improved property rights. However, higher-order “financialization,” proxied here by the size of capital markets and the wages in the financial sector, appeared to have a negative impact on the development of broad-based property rights in transition.     

Trade Structure and Trade liberalization: The emerging pattern between the EU and Transition Economies

The purpose of this study is to find empirical evidence for the assumption that trade liberalization unlocks the potential of the Transition Economies (TEs) to achieve technological upgrading, productivity progress and catching-up (in terms of income). The study examines the trade structure now emerging between the European Union (EU) and the TEs in the light of two sets of differently liberalized trade items identified by the European Agreements. The aim is to determine whether trade liberalization has helped to supersede the structures – reflected mainly in the low quality of products – inherited by the TEs from the command economy. The empirical results are interpreted in the light of the Flam-Helpman quality-cycle model. We find evidence of an ongoing division of labor between high quality products (EU) and low quality products (TEs) according to a cycle. The first stage comprises the already well established dominance of quality advantage products by EU countries producing and exporting high-quality products, which crowd out the TEs' production of similar products. The second stage is the exploitation of cost-advantages by TEs in less liberalized trade, and there they appear to achieve better results. All these results may be taken as support for an active government in TEs.     

Hidden Economy – an Unknown Quantity? Comparative Analysis of Hidden Economies in Transition Countries, 1989–95

The study investigates the size of the hidden economy and related features, in post-socialist countries. After dealing critically with the approach of Kaufmann and Kaliberda, a method based on household electricity consumption is used to estimate the ratio of the hidden economy to the official GDP in 20 countries. Following a uniform growth in the size of the hidden economy in all the countries at the beginning of their transition, stagnation or further increase was experienced in the CIS countries, while an explicit declining tendency could be seen in the remaining economies. Comparisons show that the ratio of the hidden economy in post-socialist countries is significantly larger than in developed market economies. The paper analyses the relationships between the visible private economy, the advancement of reforms, corruption, and the size of the hidden economy.     

经济改革与经济学转型

我国的经济改革是在传统计划体制背景下启动的,也是在一定的改革意识引领下发生的,但在传统政治经济学框架内形成的改革理论具有一定的局限性。改革开放以来,经济学者运用现代经济学方法对中国经济进行分析,获得了有价值的成果。但是,我国经济学理论的转型还没有完成。为了深化市场经济的改革,如何科学地认识市场经济,怎样在经济学理论研究中体现现代精神,都需要在范式转型的前提下继续进行探索。     

The Problems of Transition, EU Enlargement, and Globalization

This paper examines how far the restructuring process toward a market system has proceeded in Transition Economies since the collapse of Communist regimes more than a decade ago, how ready these economies are for admission into the European Union, and how the globalization of the world economy is affecting them. The paper also presents a model of the restructuring process and of international trade during the restructuring process.     

Economies in transition and in development: A possible warning from Adam Smith

Abstract

If Adam Smith were asked about transitioning and developing economies today, one may infer, he might suggest introducing small, yet constant, opportunities for wealth accumulation, avoiding the sudden accumulation of riches. Good institutions and the moral rules often needed to comply with them are more likely to be disregarded if there are large, sudden material gains, such as new wealth generated by the sudden opening of markets or government granting monopolies. For Smith, the desire to show off in front of others can inhibit moral behaviour and respect for good institutions, generating perverse incentives that hinder growth. Gradual change is to be preferred.     

Technology choices and growth: testing New Structural Economics in Transition Economies

We explore the relationship between development policies, finance and growth as approached by New Structural Economics (NSE) with special reference to Transition Economies (TEs). On a sample of 164 economies for 1963–2009, our analysis confirms NSE propositions that the type of development policies, as captured by the Technology Choice Index (TCI), has a significant effect on long-term growth. However, this differs for TEs as a whole and its subgroups. Further to this, using a sample of 94 countries for 1985–2009, we provide a first empirical test of the relationship between growth, TCI and financial structure distortions and we show that there is a negative relationship between financial distortions and TCI on the one hand and medium-term growth on the other hand. We also find that the negative effect of a higher ratio of TCI on medium-term growth is partly mitigated, although not eliminated, by moderate level of financial sector distortions. This points towards some positive externalities of simultaneous financial and industrial sector distortions, at least in the medium run. However, TEs are shown to differ from the rest of the sample as financial distortions play a more pronounced direct negative effect on medium-term growth in these countries.     

Taking down the wall: Transition and inequality

In this article, we investigate the main determinants of income inequality in the transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States during the period 1990–2018. To this end, we address a major methodological challenge that lies at the core of the cross‐country literature on income inequality: the potential endogeneity of income per capita, which is largely ignored by most empirical studies. We adopt a two‐pronged empirical strategy by (1) using trading partners’ weighted average real GDP as an instrumental variable and (2) estimating the model via the two‐stage least squares approach for static models and the generalized method of moments estimator for dynamic models. Our empirical findings are consistent with the Kuznets curve that illustrates a nonlinear relationship between income inequality and the level of economic development. We also find that the redistributive impact of fiscal policy is statistically insignificant and taxation and government spending appear to have the opposing effects on income inequality in transition economies over the sample period.     

International Economies of Scale and the Gains from Trade

In this paper, we present a two-country trade model with external economies of scale that emerge on an international level but are partially localized in each country. First, we show that the larger country exports the good produced in an industry with external economies of scale in the trading equilibrium. Second, we investigate the welfare effects of trade for the following two cases: (I) the case where external economies are completely localized in autarky; (II) the case where external economies are internationally effective in autarky. In case (II), it is shown that trade can be welfare-decreasing for both countries.     

不同宪政秩序下的转轨路径与转轨绩效--"北京共识"的内涵与应用

文章从对"北京共识"的认识出发,认为对于发展中的转轨经济国家,转轨中的制度选择对转轨的绩效至关重要,各国应该结合各自的国情,走适合自己的发展道路.文章设计了一个公共选择模型以解释各国间转轨效益的差异.转轨的成本不仅取决于经济考虑,更取决于政治的因素.政治选择影响新制度安排的效率,因此与转轨成本正相关.中国在转轨中选择了宪政平滑变迁的方式,这可在短期内化解转轨的经济体制成本和政治体制成本问题.     

Understanding the Transaction Costs of Transition: it's the Culture,Stupid

The process of transition in Central and Eastern Europe from socialism to capitalism is a cultural issue rather than a mere technical one. To support this proposition, economic analysis must explain why and how informal rules affect the results of transition.     

The Limits of Discipline: Ownership and Hard Budget Constraints in the Transition Economies

The existing literature on soft budget constraints suggests that firms may be subsidized for political reasons or because of the creditors' desire to recover a part of the sunk cost invested in an earlier period. In all these models hard budget constraints are viewed as being, in principle, capable of inducing the necessary restructuring behaviour on the level of the firm. This paper argues that the imposition of financial discipline is not sufficient to remedy ownership and governance-related deficiencies of corporate performance. Using evidence from the post-communist transition economies, the paper shows that a policy of hard budget constraints cannot induce successful revenue restructuring, which requires entrepreneurial incentives inherent in certain ownership types (most notably, outside investors). The paper also shows that the policy of hard budget constraints falters when state firms, because of inferior revenue performance and less willingness to meet payment obligations, continue to pose a higher credit risk than privatized firms. The brunt of state firms' lower creditworthiness falls on state creditors. But the 'softness' of these creditors, while harmful in many ways, is not necessarily irrational, if it prevents the demise of firms that are in principle capable of successful restructuring through ownership changes.     

The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from Eight Economies in Transition

Abstract

We examine in this paper the importance of banks’ behavior in the transmission of the monetary policy to the real economy. Monthly data from eight economies in transition that recently became members of the European Union and the techniques of cointegration and Error Correction models are used, in order to investigate the relationship between intermediation margin spread (IMS, official lending rate minus deposit rate) and industrial production. Given the low development of corporate bond market and the dependence of non-financial agents on banking credits, we find that in many countries the IMS is an important leading indicator of industrial production. However, in countries characterized by credit access constraints (Estonia and Latvia) evidence for the traditional money channel is found. Evidence for both money and credit channels is found in Poland and Hungary. These results imply that a common monetary policy implemented by the European Central Bank may be transmitted in different ways across the new members of the enlarged European Union with different effects on real output in each country.     

经济转轨、集体腐败与政治改革--基于中国转轨经验的经济学分析

腐败是经济转轨国家中普遍存在的现象,中国当前的腐败问题呈现集体腐败的特征.文章主要是运用博弈理论对集体腐败行为进行解释.文章证明了在中国这样的经济转轨国家,由于缺乏一个独立的监督机构,一般都是上级官员作为其下级官员的监督者,他们非常容易合谋,形成集体腐败.随后文章对中国集体腐败问题做了实证分析,并且提出了相应的政治改革措施.     

Economic reforms and human development: evidence from transition economies

Do market-oriented economic reforms result in higher levels of human well-being? This article studies the impact of macro-level institutional and infrastructure reforms on the economic, educational and health dimensions of human well-being among 25 transition economies. We use panel data econometrics based on the LSDVC technique to analyse the effects of market-oriented reforms on the human development index (HDI), as a measure of human well-being, from 1992 to 2007. The results show the complexity of reform impacts in transition countries. They show that institutional and economic reforms led to positive economic effect and significant impacts on other dimensions of human development. We find some positive economic impacts from infrastructure sectors reforms. However, not every reform measure appears to generate positive impacts. Large-scale privatizations show negative effects in health and economic outcomes. The overall results show the importance of the interaction among different reform measures and the combined effect of these on human development.     

转型经济学的框架变迁与中国范式的全球价值——纪念中国改革开放30周年

中国30年改革开放为全球转型国家提供了有价值的参照体系,也为经济学家探讨转型经济学提供了丰富的视角.文章系统梳理了经济转型理论的历史性变迁,探讨新古典经济学在建立转型理论框架中所遭遇的理论困境和内在逻辑缺失,同时着重剖析了转型经济学中存在的两大基本争议,即渐进式变迁和激进式变迁的争议以及强制性变迁和诱致性变迁的争议.文章最后对中国经济改革进行了理论提炼,揭示了经济转型的中国范式的内涵及其全球意义.