Perceptions of domain experts on impact of foresight on policy making: The case of Japan

In this study, the perceptions of domain experts who participated in foresight activities on the impact on policy making are examined by conducting interviews and surveys on five previous foresights in Japan between 1996 and 2007. The purpose of the study is to examine how domain experts look at the practice of foresight in general, and perceive its overall impact on policy making in particular, in the setting of Japanese foresight conducted in the past 15 years. There are two tasks for doing that in this study: to know the views of scientists and engineers who participated in foresights on the impact of foresights they participated; and to know the effect of respondent's characteristics on their perceptions on impact.There are two main findings of this study. First, the impact on policy making perceived by domain experts who participated in foresight activities in Japan is not very high. Second, there are different patterns of perception on the size of the impact on policy making depending on ages, organizations, member status during foresight, and science and technology areas, and habit of following the situation in general looking for any impacts after the foresight.     

人工智能的财富分配效应研究*

人工智能对经济不平等的影响引起学术界的广泛重视，但是现有研究以分析其对劳动收入不平等的影响为主，关于人工智能对财富分配从而对财产性收入不平等影响的相关研究尚有欠缺。本文通过构建一个连续时间异质性个体动态一般均衡模型，将人工智能对生产技术的影响看作一揽子偏向性技术进步，研究人工智能技术对财富分配的影响。分析发现，人工智能对财富不平等的影响在短期和长期表现有所不同，短期中人工智能技术的应用会提高经济中财富分配不平等程度，而长期中其财富分配效应则取决于人工智能对不同类型技术进步的促进程度。核心机制在于，人工智能技术进步的多样性在短期和长期中对资本回报率产生不同影响，短期中各类技术进步总是会提高资本回报率，而在长期，不同类型的技术进步对资本回报率的影响出现差异。基于以上结论，本文就我国如何在应用人工智能促进增长的同时预防不平等程度扩大提出了政策建议。     

Distribution of wealth and incomplete markets: Theory and empirical evidence

This paper analyses the equilibrium distribution of wealth in an economy where firms’ productivities are subject to idiosyncratic shocks, returns on factors are determined in competitive markets, households have linear consumption functions and government imposes taxes on capital and labour incomes and equally redistributes the collected resources to households. The equilibrium distribution of wealth is explicitly calculated and its shape crucially depends on market incompleteness. With incomplete markets it follows a Paretian law in the top tail and the Pareto exponent depends on the saving rate, on the net return on capital, on the growth rate of population, and on portfolio diversification. The characteristics of the labour market crucially affects the bottom tail, but not the upper tail of the distribution of wealth in the case of completely decentralized labour market. The analysis also suggests a positive relationship between growth and wealth inequality. The theoretical predictions find a corroboration in the empirical evidence of United States in the period 1989-2004.     

国内外旅游对经济增长影响研究综述

在梳理国内外相关文献的基础上,文章对国内外旅游对经济增长的影响研究进行了较为详细的比较综述。国外的旅游经济增长影响研究始于19世纪末,兴盛于1960年代,研究焦点集中在基于出口驱动型经济增长假说的入境旅游对经济增长的影响、旅游专业化对经济增长的影响及基于收敛假说的旅游对区域经济均衡增长的影响三个方面。国内研究始于1990年代,研究焦点为旅游产业地位及其与经济增长关系的判断。国内外相关研究既有共同点,也有差异。旅游对区域经济增长及其均衡发展的影响开始受到关注。     

Firm age and performance

Amid increasing interest in firm age and its effects on firm performance, this special issue offers an exhaustive review of the literature and a novel collection of evidence on the effects of firm age on performance, including a special focus of interest on innovation performance, financial performance, exports, survival and growth. This editorial positions the theme in the extant literature, and provides key definitions and challenges ahead in the field of evolutionary economics. It introduces the collection of articles composing the special issue. The papers offer a diversity of country contexts, as well as analytical approaches and methods. They include an exhaustive review of the literature on age and firms’ performance, and present original empirical studies focusing on the effects of age on firms’ economic outcomes on the one hand, and on innovation outcomes on the other hand. While most of the papers use econometric analysis, the level of analysis ranges from firm to individual.     

财政透明度对财政资金配置效率的影响研究

文章以我国省级地区为研究对象,利用面板回归模型,采用 FG L S及两阶段系统GMM法,详细研究了财政透明度对财政资金配置效率的影响。基于财政支出效率的考察显示,财政透明度并没有改善财政资金配置效率;基于财政支出结构的考察结果则显示,财政透明度有利于人均社会保障与就业支出,但对其他民生类支出的影响并不显著。基于理论与实践的双重考察,本文认为,目前我国财政透明度对财政资金配置并没有产生实质性影响。因此,未来应进一步提升财政透明度,深入贯彻和落实新《预算法》,提高财政资金配置效率。     

环境规制对制造业绿色全要素生产率的影响研究——基于碳排放权交易政策的PSM-DID检验

随着我国环境规制体系的不断完善,环境规制在促进经济绿色发展中所发挥的作用越来越重要,其中2011年提出的碳排放权交易政策是这一体系中重要的一种环境规制制度。因此,在利用DEA-Malmquist指数法来测度中国2009—2017年30个省份制造业绿色全要素生产率的基础上,将2013年在试点省市正式实施的碳排放权交易政策作为一次准自然实验,采用倾向匹配得分的双重差分法(PSM-DID)研究了环境规制对制造业绿色全要素生产率的影响效应。实证研究表明:制造业绿色全要素生产率受环境规制的影响逐步改善,对MGTFP分解项的影响和对MGTFP的影响相一致。在对MGTFP分解项的影响中,技术进步所受的影响最大,纯技术效率所受的影响最小,综合技术效率所受到的影响要大于规模效率所受到的影响,产业结构、政府干预及城镇化对MGTFP及其分解项的影响存在差异,技术创新对MGTFP及其分解项的影响为正,对外开放对MGTFP分解项的影响为负,这与对MGTFP的影响一致。     

ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN BANKING SERVICES

In order to examine theories of domestic and international trade in banking, information is presented in this paper on the vast array of service charges banks levy on their customers, both resident and non-resident, and the complex of interest rates on deposits and loans that must be collected. Examination is also necessary of collection procedures of the various charges which central banks levy on banks, as well as interest rates paid on reserves, insurance premia on deposits and the like in order to test propositions that international trade in banking is a function of the various monetary policies followed by Monetary Authorities.     

技术冲击、二氧化碳排放与中国经济波动——基于DSGE模型的数值模拟

文章通过构建包含环境约束的动态随机一般均衡模型,分析了生产技术和环保技术冲击对一国主要宏观变量的影响。研究发现:(1)生产技术冲击对经济发展的促进作用是直接的、主要的,而对污染排放量的增长效应则是间接的、次要的,最优污染排放变动具有顺周期性;(2)环保技术冲击对经济的推动作用是间接的、次要的,而对污染排放量的限制作用则是直接的、主要的,最优污染排放变动具有逆周期性;(3)在两类冲击共同作用下,环保技术冲击的减排效应短期显著,而生产技术冲击的增长效应则长期占优,但两类冲击对全球污染存量变动的影响都十分微弱,经济波动周期维持在十年左右。     

Capacities,innovation and feedbacks in production networks in Argentina

This paper is based on an application of the complex systems approach to economics with the objective of exploring the micro- and meso-mechanisms of development. Under this approach, innovation can be seen as an emergent property that depends on micro interaction and on specificities of macro structure. This study emphasizes that the micro interactions can be described by the feedback mechanisms between the absorption and connectivity capacities of firms, and the macro structure by processes of creative destruction, knowledge appropriation and structural change. The paper presents empirical evidence on the feedback loops between absorption and connectivity capacities in production networks in Argentina and their impact on innovation results. This paper concludes that the restrictions on absorption capacity and mainly on connectivity capacity in several production networks in Argentina condition the development of positive feedbacks between the two capacities, and hence the scope of the innovation path.     

浅析统计信息失真的原因及对策

近年来一些领域和地方的统计信息失真现象严重,极大地影响了国家决策部门的决策行为,对国民经济的有效运行带来了严重的负面影响。本文对我国统计信息失真的原因进行了剖析,进而有针对性地提出了提高统计信息质量的相应对策。     

科技型创业者的创业背景研究——以福建沿海地区为例

在对科技型创业者创业背景的研究进行回顾的基础上,本文以针对福建沿海地区科技型创业者所做的调查为基本依据,对福建沿海地区科技型创业者的家庭背景、教育背景、年龄背景、性别背景、专业背景、工作经历背景等进行了探讨和分析,并将调研结论与现有创业学中有关创业背景的研究结论进行了比较。     

人力资源管理系统影响企业绩效的中介机理

基于205家企业的调查数据,采用结构方程模型,对人力资本和组织氛围影响企业绩效的中介作用进行了检验。结果显示:人力资本是人力资源管理系统中"选"、"育"实践影响企业绩效的完全中介变量,是"用留"实践影响企业绩效的部分中介变量;组织氛围不是人力资源管理系统影响企业绩效的中介变量;"用留"实践对企业绩效的直接效应最显著。这表明,企业较重视人力资本的价值创造作用,而对工作氛围的价值创造作用关注不够。     

The governance of agro- and pharmaceutical biotechnology innovation: Public policy and industrial strategy

Multinational companies in the life science sector are heavily influenced by government policies and regulations and in turn attempt to influence these actors nationally and internationally. This paper focuses on recent and on-going research, principally on the agro-biotechnology and, to a lesser extent, on the pharmaceutical industries, covering the evolution of policy and regulation in Europe, how policies are influenced by stakeholder pressures and how policy in turn influences company strategies for product development. We focus particularly on new ‘governance’ agendas in Europe and consider the relative impacts of enabling, constraining, discriminating and indiscriminate policies on company strategies as part of our development of an integrated approach to policy and governance. We also consider changes in external operating environments for multinational companies and compare past histories and present pressures on agro-biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies. The paper argues, with evidence, that a more enabling and discriminating policy and regulatory environment can achieve public goals more efficiently and effectively, taking account of impacts on innovation, than more blunt policy instruments. This type of environment takes into account the resources and capabilities available to firms and research laboratories rather than relying on broad brush carrot and stick approaches.     

Breaking the Fence: Can Patent Rights Deter Biomedical Innovation in 'Technology Followers'?

The impact of patent protection on biomedical innovation has been a controversial issue. Although a 'medical anti-commons' has been predicted as a result of a proliferation of patents on upstream technologies, evidence to test these concerns is only now emerging. However, most industrial surveys that shed light on this issue are mainly from developed countries, making it very difficult to predict the impact of patenting on biomedical innovation in developing and least developed countries. This paper develops a framework of analysis for the impact of patent rights on biomedical innovation in 'technology follower' developing countries. Based on the framework developed in the paper, empirical data collected in an industry-level survey of the Indian pharmaceutical industry between November 2004 and January 2005 is used to analyze the impact of patent rights as recognized under the Agreement on Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS Agreement) on biomedical innovation in technology followers.     

中国电力发展:提高电价和限电的经济影响

中国在过去20年中,经济增长和生产过程的现代化使之对电力愈加倚重。2002年以来,电力成为一个重要的经济和政治问题,电力短缺的直接后果是电价提高和限电。本文从提高电价和限电两方面讨论了研究电力短缺的影响的方法,分析了提高电价对不同工业行业和不同地区造成的影响,并使用调查数据就限电对工业的影响进行了量化分析。主要结论是,电力短缺对工业的直接影响远大于电力供给成本。在工业化水平较高、较为发达的省份,电力短缺的影响并不一定更大,因为决定影响程度的因素包括工业构成、对电力的依赖性和可用的替代品。     

技术进步对中国就业影响的实证研究

选取1978—2008年中国30个省市的面板数据,运用DEA方法测算中国的全要素生产率及其分解项:技术变化与技术效率,并使用ARDL模型实证分析技术效率和技术变化对就业的影响。研究发现:技术效率无论是长期还是短期都对就业具有显著的抑制效应,但在短期中,技术变化当期对就业没有显著影响;而滞后期技术变化的改善也会对就业人数的增加产生抑制效应,同时,在长期中,技术变化对就业有着显著的促进效应,可以带动就业量的增加。     

Economic efficiency of Greek retail SMEs in a period of high fluctuations in economic activity: a DEA approach

This study aims to analyse the economic efficiency of Greek small and medium retail enterprises before and after the crisis that started in 2008. Based on the Accounting Equation, we use Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to estimate variable returns of scale efficiency scores and to conclude on specific characteristics that efficient companies have, for example, on capital structure. Our results from the DEA application show a high degree of inefficiency. We found that SMEs on the islands are more efficient than those on the mainland and that SMEs in the cities are the least efficient. Size seems to be important, more so on the islands and on the mainland than in the cities. We conclude that companies should act more conservatively in terms of operating cost when the first signs of a recession appear. In addition, during a recession period, companies that have evidences that their operations will continue positively should strengthen their operations by raising more own capital. Finally, our study clarifies four issues: the efficiency of retail companies in a period of growth and a period of recession, focusing on SMEs that operate in different regions, connecting Accounting Equation and DEA and adding acid ratio as an output in our model.     

Policy Framework for Transition to a Low-Carbon World Economy

Climate change mitigation policy is the most difficult to come before our polity in living memory. There can be no solution without international agreement involving all substantial economies, and yet each country has an incentive to free ride on others. The international agreement must have five parts: agreement on the objective in terms of concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, agreement on allocation of an emissions entitlements budget among countries, agreement on rules for international trade in entitlements, agreement on developed countries taking the lead on development of low-emissions technologies, and agreement on assistance from developed countries for climate change mitigation in developing countries. Two sources of market failure must be corrected to achieve emissions reduction targets efficiently: the external costs of emitting greenhouse gases and the external benefits of private investment in innovation in relation to low-emissions technologies.     

政府背景风险投资对创新的甄选与培育效果——不同区域环境视角的检验

以创业板企业数据为样本,使用Logit模型及工具变量法,研究不同区域环境下政府背景风险投资对企业创新的事前甄选与事后培育作用,并对其机制进行探讨。结果表明：①经济区域对政府背景风险投资行为影响有限,与非核心发达地区相比,金融发达地区的政府背景风险投资对企业技术创新没有表现出差异性甄选行为,但却有更好的事后培育作用,而且这种培育作用会随着地区投资环境优化而增强;②行政区域对政府背景风险投资行为影响显著,与异省投资相比,本省政府背景风险投资对技术创新的事前甄选具有显著优势,但对被投企业后续创新投入产生了一定的负面作用,这种作用会因政府背景风险投资占有董事会席位而加大。