经济增长、社会保障和储蓄的互动性关系研究

采用向量自回归模型、向量误差修正模型以及脉冲响应和方差分解方法,对经济增长、社会保障和储蓄的互动性关系进行实证研究。结果表明,从长期看,经济增长对社会保障有巨大的影响,但影响的方向存在不确定性,同时,经济增长也会促使储蓄率的上升。社会保障对储蓄率有显著的促进作用,当社会保障转移收入提高,储蓄率也有相应增长,而储蓄率的上升并没有对经济增长起到促进作用。此外,向量误差模型也表明经济增长、社会保障和国民储蓄率都受到自身滞后期的影响。     

局部经济衰退与全球经济衰退的转换关系

把握局部经济衰退与全球经济衰退的动态转化规律对于预测经济衰退走势和合理规避风险具有重要意义.本文实证分析了1961年-2013年局部经济衰退与全球经济衰退间的转换关系.研究结论如下:首先,美、日、英三国共同的经济衰退是世界经济衰退的先导因素;其次,自20世纪90年代开始,中国、印度和巴西与发达国家的经济周期协同变动趋势开始显现,由此导致的共同衰退将直接转换为世界经济衰退;最后,东亚地区和拉美地区的局部经济衰退将通过发达国家和三个较大发展中国家间接导致全球经济衰退.此外,东亚和拉美的经济衰退之间无明显转换关系.     

论社会和谐、社会发展与社会矛盾的关系

通过对社会和谐、社会发展、社会矛盾之问的关系进行分析,指出从中国改革开放事业发展到今天,我们既取得了举世瞩目的伟大成就,同时又出现了一系列新问题、新矛盾,而且一些问题和矛盾还比较突出,迫切需要解决。因此,只有把握好和谐、发展、矛盾之间的关系,中国特色社会主义事业才能不断推向前进。     

经济转型期我国社会保险与经济增长关系的实证分析

随着社会保障制度在世界范围内的建立和实施,对社会保险与经济增长之间关系的研究也成为颇具争议的焦点问题。本文基于新的经济环境视角,采用经典回归模型进行分析的结果表明,社会保险基金支出和经济增长之间长期存在双向正向的关系,通过不断完善社会保险制度有利于提高社会保险制度对经济增长的正向激励效应。     

Economic Relationship Between Alcohol and Cannabis Revisited

Consuming cannabis in combination with alcohol is common among Australian cannabis users. This paper investigates whether the economic relationship between cannabis and alcohol is affected by the manner in which these two substances are used. Our results indicate that cannabis and alcohol are economic complements for all cannabis users, but this relationship is stronger for cannabis users who tend to use alcohol and cannabis together, whom we refer to as polysubstance users. Separate analysis by gender suggests that cannabis consumption by polysubstance and non-polysubstance using males is more responsive to changes in the full price of alcohol than their female counterparts.     

论金融经济时代的金融与经济关系

本文拟就金融经济时代的金融与经济之间的相互关系问题 ,进行一些研究和探索 :经济发展决定着金融发展 ,金融发展反过来又促进着经济发展。     

The Relationship Between Economic Factors and Equity Markets in Central Europe

This paper investigates the possibility that newly-emerging equity markets in Central Europe exhibit semi-strong form efficiency such that no relationship exists between lagged values of changes in economic variables and changes in equity prices. We find that while there are connections between the real economy and equity market returns in Poland and Hungary, these links occur with lags, suggesting the possibility of profitable trading strategies based on public information and rejecting semi-strong efficiency. For the Czech Republic the situation is more complex. In recent periods, little connection exists between lagged economic variables and equity market returns. Although this finding might be viewed as consistent with semi-strong efficiency, in fact there is also little connection between current economic values and stock prices in the Czech Republic. Thus, instead of processing information efficiently, the Czech market appears to be entirely divorced from the real world. It is suggested that the difference in the current status of these markets may be due to the different methods by which they were created.     

传媒经济的实质是社会资本与经济资本之间的转化

规模化和公开性使得大众传媒成为了公众舆论的良好载体,传媒影响力的实质在于传媒通过与舆论互动而形成的对社会资本的占有,而传媒经济的实质就是实现这种社会资本与经济资本之间的转化。影响力提高了,传媒才能够最大限度地占有社会资本,只有这样,传媒的经济效益才能够得到保障。虽然要实现传媒社会资本与经济资本之间良性的循环转化并不容易,但毋庸置疑的是,在一个健康的传媒环境中,负责任的报纸,提供有价值的信息,才是真正的卖点。     

自然资源与经济增长关系的理论演进

在古典经济学的增长理论中,自然资源被赋予了决定经济增长的重要因素。然而,自新古典经济学的资本决定论以及新增长理论的技术决定论以来,自然资源却被认为不再是经济增长的主要影响因素。不过,此阶段的相关理论仍然认为资源并非经济增长的阻碍力量。但是近些年来,发展经济学的"资源诅咒"假说却认为,丰富的自然资源反而会对经济增长产生极强的抑制作用,由此使得资源丰裕地区的增长速度慢于资源贫乏的地区。完善的制度和有效的制度变迁、合理利用资源租、充分发挥外国直接投资的正面促进作用或许是摆脱资源诅咒的有效途径。     

浅析中国巴西经贸关系

中国与巴西同为金砖国家,处在经济迅猛发展阶段,其相互合作意义重大。巴西原材料丰富,中国产品物美价廉,两国良好的经贸关系不仅体现在进出口上,在投资领域,经贸科研等方面也深入合作。近几年签署了多项大型合作项目,贸易往来能够通过本币进行结算,虽然巴西对来自中国进口商品的反倾销调查有所增加,但双边经贸关系发展前景广阔。     

经济先行指数与我国宏观经济增长的动态关系分析

信心与宏观经济波动关系的研究对改善和加强宏观经济管理具有重要意义。分析了我国企业家信心指数、消费者信心指数等7种经济先行指数与宏观经济增长的关系,结果表明,我国的经济先行指数与宏观经济增长之间存在着长期稳定关系,但各类经济先行指数对经济波动的敏感性差别较大,其中,企业家信心指数对我国宏观经济趋势的敏感性最强,消费者信心指数最不敏感。因此,为避免我国宏观经济的大幅波动,应通过财税政策和制度设计增强企业家信心。     

Social Security and Early Retirement: The Relationship Between Workers,Firms and Governments

In this paper we survey a number of theoretical and empirical studies in order to propose explanations to the fall of labour force participation at older age. Starting from the largely studied effect of social security schemes on labour supply, we explore the employers behaviour and the role of governments in the development of early retirement schemes. We show that early retirement is the result of a global agreement between firms and government where workers have incentives to early exit the labour market due to generous non actuarial benefits. Firms have an advantage to separate older workers because they are costly compared to young workers and governments hope that by pushing elderly into early retirement they will solve the massive unemployment problem.     

Some Empirical Indications of the Relationship Between Environmental Quality and Economic Development

The paper examines the relation between countries' state of the environment (defined as acceptable, marginal or unacceptable, according to values of ambient accumulation of pollutants) and stage of economic development (defined as low, middle and high income), using the concentration of sulphur dioxide in urban areas and dissolved oxygen in rivers. Univariate and ordered probit models are estimated for air and water quality. The results indicate that the probability of having acceptable environmental quality in a country increases with respect to the examined pollutants as the country moves to a higher state of economic development.     

厘清经济、社会发展关系 理解科学发展观

经济增长和社会发展的关系是一个极易被人们误读的关系,妨碍着我们对科学发展观的准确把握,分析经济增长和社会发展关系的角度较多,借助"拉弗曲线"的分析方法,则可以更加形象、透彻地分析它们相互促进、相互制约的矛盾属性,从而在此基础上清晰地探明两者均衡发展的规律,对在实践中树立科学发展观非常有益。     

Threshold Effects on the Relationship Between Inflation Rate and Economic Growth in Tunisia

Using an econometric technique suggested by Hansen [(2001). The new econometrics of structural change: Dating breaks in U.S. Labor productivity. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15, 117–128], this paper studies the inflation–economic growth nexus in the case of Tunisia for the 1993-01–2012-11 period. The results show that there is one inflation threshold value that does exist for Tunisia. This evidence strongly sustains the view that the relationship between inflation rate and economic growth is non-linear. The estimated threshold regression model suggests that a threshold value of inflation rate below 3.48% fosters economic growth. In addition, above this threshold level, there is a statistically significant negative relationship between inflation rate and economic growth. These results have important implications to policy-makers who should pay attention to the inflation phenomena. Therefore, a new policy that takes into account such a threshold should be set up.     

甘肃省金融发展与经济增长关系研究——基于1994—2008年数据的实证分析

大量研究表明,金融发展是影响经济发展的重要因素,金融发展水平低严重制约着欠发达地区的经济发展水平。基于国内学者的研究成果,利用1994—2008年的数据,对甘肃省金融发展与经济增长之间的关系进行了定量分析。实证结果表明,金融发展指标FIR与经济增长指标GDPR之间存在长期稳定的负相关关系,金融发展与经济增长存在不显著的正向因果关系。     

经济伦理与社会和谐

经济要发展,社会要和谐,两者互为条件,相辅相成。其中一个重要的结合点是:按和谐社会的内在要求,协调好社会主义市场经济中的利益关系,正确倡导和践行经济伦理。     

金融与经济增长关系实证研究的发展与创新

对金融与经济增长之间关系的实证研究是在20世纪60年代以后才开始的.在短短40多年的时间里,对该问题的研究已经经历了三个发展阶段并集中在四个方面.经过三个阶段的发展,特别是最近几年来研究方法的突破,对该问题的研究已经取得了很大的进展.本文主要讨论金融与经济增长关系实证研究的发展过程,评价重要研究成果和研究方法的贡献与不足,分析该领域研究存在的问题与今后的发展方向.