Cointegration analysis of quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia

Hong Kong and Singapore are two of the most important and fastest growing markets for tourists to Australia. The purpose of this paper is to investigate movements in the long-run demand for tourist travel by these two origin countries for Australia. Some of the leading macroeconomic variables examined to explain tourism demand are incomes in Hong Kong and Singapore, tourism prices in Australia, and transportation costs and exchange rates between the two countries and Australia. Seasonally unadjusted quarterly data are used for Hong Kong for the period 1975(1)–1996(4), and for 1980(4)–1996(4) for Singapore. Several proxy variables are used for the incomes of tourists from Hong Kong and Singapore to explain quarterly tourist arrivals to Australia. The augmented Dickey-Fuller test for unit roots is examined in the univariate framework, and Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure is used to test for cointegration and to estimate the number of cointegrating vectors. Error correction models are estimated to explain quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia.     

Climate change driven shifts in the extent and location of areas suitable for export banana production

Species distribution modeling (SDM) is used to map areas predicted to be suitable for commercial banana production in Central and northwestern South America. Using the downscaled climate projections for 2060 from seven leading global climate models we then predict the geographical shifts in areas suitable for banana production. We repeat this process for conventional and organic banana production. Approximately half of the existing conventional plantations included in the analysis are located in areas predicted to become unsuitable for banana production by 2060. The overall extent of areas suitable for conventional banana cultivation is predicted to decrease by 19%, but all countries are predicted to maintain some suitable areas. The extent of areas suitable for organic banana cultivation is predicted to nearly double due primarily to climatic drying. Several countries (e.g., Colombia and Honduras) are predicted to experience large net decreases in the extent of areas suitable for banana cultivation. Some countries (e.g., Mexico) are predicted to experience large net increases in the extent of suitable areas. The shifts in the location of areas that will be suitable for banana cultivation are predicted to occur mainly within areas outside of protected areas and that are already under agricultural production.     

Housing supply elasticity in local government areas of Sydney

We report supply elasticity estimates of residential property (houses and apartments) for local government areas (LGAs) in metropolitan Sydney. Using annual data for 1991–2012, the average supply elasticity estimate across all LGAs is 0.2 for houses and 0.8 for apartments. The supply of houses is inelastic in all 43 LGAs; in contrast, apartment supply is elastic – greater than unity – in about one-third of LGAs. We develop theoretical and empirical models to explain the cross-section variation in supply elasticity across LGAs. For houses, supply elasticity is negatively related to an LGA’s population density, the time taken by a local council to process a development application and to different measures of the amount of land in an LGA that is unavailable for new housing development. In contrast to houses, variation in supply elasticity for apartments across LGAs is unrelated to any of the available regressors.     

Long‐term care and pay‐for‐performance programs

Pay‐for‐performance programs are gradually spreading across Asia. This paper builds on the longer experience in the United States to offer lessons for Asia. The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services has introduced several pay‐for‐performance programs since 2012 to encourage hospitals to improve quality of care and reduce costs. Some state Medicaid programs have also introduced pay‐for‐performance for nursing homes. Long‐term care providers play an important role in hospital pay‐for‐performance programs because they can affect the readmission rate and also total episode payments. A good pay‐for‐performance program will focus on improving quality of care that affects health outcomes. In addition, that quality must vary across providers and be measurable. Furthermore, it is important that the measures be reported in a timely way, that both demand and supply respond to the measures, and that the measures be risk adjusted. Empirical data from Medicare beneficiaries in the state of Michigan show that mean episode payments and readmission rates in skilled nursing facilities vary widely and are sensitive to the number of observations. These practical matters create challenges for implementing pay‐for‐performance in practice. There is an extensive literature review of pay‐for‐performance in long‐term care in the United States and in Asia.     

The returns to general experience,job and occupational tenure: a study using Australian panel data

This article uses Australian panel data for the years 2001–2009 to estimate returns to general experience, job and occupational tenure. We pay particular attention to issues of unobserved heterogeneity bias in our estimations. We find that both general experience and occupational tenure have statistically and numerically significant effects on wage outcomes, even after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. Job tenure on the other hand only seems to matter in OLS regressions that do not control for heterogeneity biases. Once these biases are controlled for, only a modest effect from job tenure remains. The inclusion of occupational tenure in the estimating equation tends to negate even this modest job tenure effect. The only exception to this is for workers in large organizations. For these workers a small but statistically significant effect from job tenure remains, even once we have controlled for heterogeneity and included occupational tenure in the estimating equation. The results reported in this article have implications for the various theories of the labour market that predict upward-sloping wage-job-tenure profiles.     

区域工业旅游产品营销策略——以郴州市工业旅游为例

以郴州市为例,论证了区域工业旅游产品营销应具备的三个条件:主体条件、客体条件、媒介条件;分析了当前我国区域工业旅游产品营销特点;在此基础上提出了战略对策:充分发挥政府在工业旅游产品营销中的主导作用、明确工业旅游产品营销市场的战略定位、实施产品组合营销策略、以“装”引人,推出特色产品、营造令人愉悦的旅游氛围,加大宣传推销力度、确定合理价格水平、重视工业旅游经济效益增长点———工业旅游商品的营销。     

Decreasing energy use in buildings by 50% by 2050 — A backcasting study using stakeholder groups

This paper describes a backcasting study focusing on fulfilment of a national target to decrease energy consumption in residential and commercial buildings by 50% by 2050 compared with the consumption in 1995, and identifying possible measures for achieving it. A method based on a combination of backcasting methodology and focus group methodology was used. Two different scenarios were developed. They were used in discussions with stakeholders in the building sector, to explore and identify measures and actors important for target fulfillment. The main outcomes were ideas for strategies and measures needed to achieve the target. The current potential for target fulfilment was also analysed and discussed. The discussions in the different stakeholder groups were mainly concerned with changes in attitude and behaviour and the need for radical changes in social structures. For example, enhanced communication between actors in the building chain, and the need for relevant feedback in order to illustrate the link between the effort in decreasing energy use and actual outcome. The findings suggest that there is sufficient technical potential to achieve the target by 2050 but that this potential will not be realised to a sufficient extent. Achieving the target would be facilitated by policy that is oriented more towards identifying actors with direct influence to promote change. An analysis of incentives for these actors to act, and how different actors can cooperate for energy-efficient solutions should be integrated into the process of suggesting and implementing policy measures.     

The development of the shadow economies for Denmark,Norway, and Sweden: A comparison

By applying the currency demand approach, it is tried to provide some insights about the size and the development of the shadow economies in Denmark, Norway and Sweden. Special emphasis is laid on the role of one cause variable - the marginal tax rate - which is assumed to be strongly associated with the size of the shadow economy. In each of the three Scandinavian countries the demand for currency is influenced in a statistically, highly significant way by the marginal tax rate. The difference in demand for currency is then calculated when the actual tax burden over time is compared to the lowest tax burden over the estimation period 1954 to 1982. Assuming the same velocity of money in the shadow and official economy, the shadow grows from 0% in 1954 to 7% for Denmark, to 8% for Norway and to 10% for Sweden up to 1975. From 1976–1982 it fluctuates between 7–8% for Denmark, between 8–10% for Norway and between 11–13% for Sweden. From 1967 on, Sweden has the largest shadow economy followed by Norway and then by Denmark.     

Forecasting UK international trade: A general equilibrium approach

Monthly retail unit sales of clothes washers and dryers in eastern Washington state were regressed on average employment during the current and preceding two months, the average advertised price of these appliances relative to the Consumer Price Index, the expected change in consumer stocks of such applicances for each year on the basis of a hypothetical rate of accumulation, and the unit volume of newspaper advertising in order to determine the viablity of alternative models for analysing and forecasting monthly sales in a localized retail market during the periods of growth, maturity, and decline in market demand.

Employment and advertising, the two most useful variables in the functions tested, were able to account for 70–75 per cent of the monthly sales variance for automatic washers and dryers. Employment elasticity coefficients, though not linearly related to income elasticity coefficients for these products, appear to be a useful measure of purchasing power for localized demand and forecasting functions. The average advertising elasticity for the products studied was 0.095, which was approximately equal to advertising expenditures as a ratio of the gross margin of furniture and house furnishings corporations and kitchen appliance departments of department stores for the period studied, in keeping with the Rasmussen hypothesis. Correction of the models for the presence of autocorrelation altered the explanatory power of some of the variables substantially and resulted in regression coefficients for some variables that were more nearly consistent with theoretical expectations.     

LABOR DEMAND AND THE WAGE GAP IN THE WEST BANK AND GAZA STRIP

The returns to schooling for Palestinian men in the West Bank and Gaza Strip declined sharply from 1981 to 1987 but recovered slightly from 1987 to 1991. This article examines the degree to which these returns were associated with the demand for Palestinian labor. Contrary to previous research, the current study finds that labor demand and not just the increased schooling of Palestinians determined the returns to schooling. Specifically, increased demand for unskilled Palestinian labor in Israel and decreased demand for Palestinian workers in other Arab states combined to explain one-fifth to one-quarter of the decline in the wage gap from 1981 to 1987.     

Does reputation enhance response rates?

Declining response rates and the potential for deterioration in the quality of survey data require reconsideration of the role of incentives to participate in interviews. This article argues that the strategies associated with linking public goods to private goods to establish reputation effects for the private goods involved can also be used to enhance confidence in the objectives of the request for an interview. In this literature, an assured reputation is established for those selling products by offering to contribute some of the proceeds of a sale to charity. The results of our field experiment indicate that combining charity with financial incentives appears to increase confidence in survey objectives for those familiar with the interview process.     

Success factors for sustainable urban brownfield development: A comparative case study approach to polluted sites

In the context of sustainable city planning, we observe in recent years an increasing policy interest in urban environmental quality management in relation to land use. The potential for sustainable land use solutions in urban areas is often severely hampered by the existence of unacceptably high levels of soil pollution. The present paper aims to identify the critical success factors for an effective clean-up policy for these areas. After a review of issues, backgrounds and prospects, the paper attempts to offer a qualitative impact assessment model, which encapsulates an expert system for brownfield development in relation to clean-up targets for polluted sites. Next, a case study approach to various soil pollution cases in The Netherlands is carried out to test the feasibility of the above-mentioned analytical framework. A subsequent step consists of the use of modern meta-analytic techniques for comparative research and research synthesis in order to trace the drivers of failure or success in brownfield development policy in urban areas. The particular method employed here, rough set analysis, appears to be able to identify the conditions—in terms of packages of drivers—under which such urban policies are likely to be successful.     

建设工程合同若干问题探讨

招标投标是建设工程合同成立的主要形式,其程序较为复杂,各阶段的性质及法律效力的界定十分重要,它决定着建设工程合同何时成立,也决定着毁标行为应承担违约责任还是缔约过失责任。理论上和实践中对此存在不同的认识和观点,主要原因在于现行立法存在缺陷。     

A Stochastic Model with Penalized Coefficients for Spatial Price Comparisons: An Application to Regional Price Indexes in Italy

This paper focuses on a new strand of research that uses stochastic approach for making spatial price comparisons. We propose a novel method to account for the presence of spatial dependencies in consumer prices and consequently in price indexes by imposing penalization conditions on the estimation of traditional CPD models leading to the spatially-penalized country-product-dummy (SP-CPD) model. The paper proposes an appropriate estimation strategy, which enables us to simultaneously estimate all the parameters in the model, including the smoothing parameter of the penalization term instead of determining it externally. In order to estimate spatial price indexes for areas lacking in price data, we suggest applying the kriging methodology to the price indexes obtained from the SP-CPD model. This new approach is applied to official Italian CPI data for constructing regional spatial price indexes for 2014. The results show that price levels are higher in the Northern-Central regions than in the South.     

Analysis of evolutionary game in structural formation of market power in remanufacturing supply chains

It is normal for enterprises to engage in remanufacturing nowadays. Nevertheless, the concern of enterprises and researchers is whether remanufacturers should compete for leadership in supply chains. Considering the WTP for new and remanufactured products differs, this article the evolutionary game theory model in three structures of leadership in supply chains. It investigates the processes of market evolution and choices of strategies when manufacturers and retailers compete or do not compete for leadership in the market. It has been shown in the case of market evolution, according to the 12 conditions formed from different prices that manufacturer and retailer have to pay for competing for leadership, there are five types of ultimate evolutionary stability about the choices of strategies. Further analyses show that these five different evolutionary stability results include nine different evolutionary paths. Analyses of examples further show the evolutionary processes and results in distinct circumstances. This article extends the application of the evolutionary game in remanufacturing supply chains in theory and provides some guidance for enterprises to make decisions when they consider whether they compete for leaders in remanufacturing supply chains in reality.     

REVENUE-NEUTRAL INCENTIVES FOR EFFICIENCY AND ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY

Recently, interest has grown in using monetary incentives as an efficient way to promote energy efficiency and environmental quality. This paper describes issues raised in designing revenue-neutral incentive policies to achieve these goals. Such policies involve charging fees in proportion to undesirable characteristics and giving rebates in proportion to desirable characteristics. The fees pay for the rebates and for any administrative costs of the program.
This paper analyzes the conceptual issues raised in designing such incentive policies to correct for externalities and to promote the efficiency of buildings and automobiles. The paper examines the nature and importance of externalities, presents the rationale for revenue-neutral incentive policies, and describes six revenue-neutral incentive programs for achieving these goals. In addition, it analyzes the criteria that one should use in determining the size of fees and rebates, in light of the large uncertainties. Finally, the paper addresses key implementation issues.     

Consumption inequality in Canada, 1997 to 2009

We assess the evolution of consumption inequality in Canada over the years 1997 to 2009. We correct the imputation of shelter consumption for homeowners to allow for unobserved differences in housing quality correlated with selection into rental tenure, and we account for measurement error in this imputation. Using the annual Survey of Household Spending for years 1997 to 2009, we find that household‐level consumption inequality measured by the Gini coefficient increased from 0.251 to 0.275 over 1997 to 2006. Between 2006 and 2007, consumption inequality may have decreased, and over 2007 to 2009, consumption inequality was flat. Over the entire period of 1997 to 2009, consumption inequality increased moderately. The Gini coefficient for individual‐level consumption inequality followed a similar pattern, though the changes were smaller in magnitude. We also explore a possible correction for tail non‐response bias in inequality measurement and find that the increase in measured consumption inequality is robust to this correction.     

Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the demand for money in China

In order to account for currency substitution, the majority of recent studies relating to the specification of the demand for money include the exchange rate as another determinant of the demand for money. However, those who have estimated the demand for money in China have been unable to find any significant effects of exchange rate changes on the demand for money by the Chinese. We show that this is due to the assumption that exchange rate changes have symmetric effects. Once depreciations are separated from appreciations of the yuan, those exchange rate changes are shown to have significant effects on the demand for money in China, but in an asymmetric manner.     

Interest Rates and Monetary Velocity in Australia and the United States*

Two problems have become evident in recent work on the demand for money. One is the implausibly long lags in the demand for money function, the other is a tendency for short-run instability during the 1970s. This paper argues that these problems stem from a point raised by Milton Friedman in 1959 but neglected subsequently: namely, the failure of reference cycles in interest rates to conform in timing with cycles in velocity. The cyclical association between interest rates and velocity is examined for both Australia and the US using cross-spectral methods, and evidence is found of the timing relationships which puzzled Friedman and led him to doubt that interest rates significantly affected the demand for money. After considering the implications of these findings, it is concluded that many models of the demand for money appear to be mis-specified, and the two problems mentioned above are symptomatic of this. A different approach to modelling the demand for money is outlined, in which a short-lead relationship in the money market is substituted for the long lags found by other researchers.