The Politics of Shadow Money: Security Structures,Money Creation and Unconventional Central Banking

ABSTRACT

For the first time in the history of central banks, the Federal Reserve has been pursuing monetary policies which allow shadow banks to access its reserves. The paper examines these policies in an analysis based on the concept of security structure. The aim is to facilitate a better understanding of complex institutional arrangements which convert credit claims into money or enable them to simulate the money-form. As the financial crisis reached its peak in September 2008, the Fed was not able to contain the impact precisely because the security structure existing between banks and the Fed did not extend to the shadow banking system, which had meanwhile become thebackbone of the global financial system. To address this situation, the Fed initiated new security structures that were designed to also give players in the shadow banking system access to liquidity and collateral. The concept ‘security structure’ serves as an analytical tool to explore dynamic forms of safety and liquidity generation and to distinguish between credit expansion and money creation. It also helps to differentiate between three qualitatively different stages of security: central bank money, quasi-money and shadow money. In this way, it foregrounds the politics of (shadow) money creation.     

动量货币与传统货币指标的理论与经验分析

简单加总的货币指标早已受到理论和实践的挑战,而主流国家的各种改革方案均没有取得成功.其原因是西方学者偏重货币的资产功能,忽视到货币的交易功能,对货币的基本认识存在偏差.宇宙中不存在绝对静止的事物,货币的本性是运动.物理学的动量定理与经济学的交易方程式可以进行类比.笔者尝试建立了动量货币的指标,初步的经验分析结果富有启发意义.货币的重要性依赖于它的数量和速度.西方学者排斥货币的真实速度,宏观经济学的基本结构存在重大缺陷.     

Money Creation in the Eurozone: An Empirical Assessment of the Endogenous and the Exogenous Money Theories

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to strengthen our understanding of the money creation process in the Eurozone for 1999–2016 period, through an empirical assessment of two main monetary theories, namely the (Post Keynesian) endogenous money theory and the (Monetarist) exogenous money theory. By applying a VAR and VECM methodology, we analyse the causal relationship among monetary reserves (or monetary base), bank deposits and bank loans. Our empirical analysis supports several propositions of the Post Keynesian endogenous money theory since (i) bank loans determine bank deposits, and (ii) bank deposits in turn determine monetary reserves.     

Learning by Trial and Error: A Case for Moot Courts

This article describes the development of a computer tutorial for use in a history of economic ideas class. An early version of the tutorial contained ten topics, ranging from early Mercantilist thought to Jevons's marginal utility analysis. These concepts were presented in three ways: verbally, graphically, and in summary form. Student critiques were used to extend the content and revise the mode of presentation.     

货币供给与外汇管理体制改革

本文分析了货币供给的来源,指出我国目前的外汇管理体制导致央行难以有效地控制货币供给,特别是基础货币的供给,提出了改进汇率形成机制、深化外汇管理体制改革的设想和方法。     

An Integrated Modular Approach to Teaching Introductory Economics

The authors describe the design and administration of a large two-semester course in principles of economics that permits both students and faculty some choice of both subject matter and meeting times during the semester. Students complete a standardized nine-week core and are then allowed to select topical modules. Advantages and disadvantages are discussed.     

A Thoroughly Embodied Economics: A Review of Personalist Economics by Edward J. O'Boyle

In a debate on the future of monetary policy and the displacement of money, Woodford argued that, even if innovations should lead to a situation in which the banks' demand for reserves at the central bank is zero, the central bank can still influence the economy's interest rates because its liability is the economy's unit of account. This paper deals with these topics by considering the implications of emphasizing the function of money as unit of account. In the analysis of money from this perspective, social, institutional and economic factors play a crucial role. Money is a social and historical relation. Therefore, the displacement of money and central banks, though possible, is a complex process involving economic, social and political factors, not merely the result of innovations. The paper also looks at some aspects of Kaldor's theory, which is centered on the fundamental importance of money as unit of account.     

影子银行、信用创造与货币政策传导机制

中国的影子银行规模已经达到GDP的一半,因此研究与之相关的问题有重要的现实意义。影子银行具有特殊的信用创造功能,能影响中国货币政策的有效性。选取2008～2013年的月度数据,通过建立VAR模型、Johansen协整检验、脉冲响应分析、方差分解等方法,实证研究影子银行在计量角度上对货币政策各层次的影响效果。结果显示：影子银行规模与通货膨胀率、广义货币供应量存在长期稳定的关系;影子银行规模对物价有较强烈冲击,同时对货币供应量有时滞性的长期影响,在一定时间内对经济增长有负面影响,这说明需要出台相应的措施加强对影子银行的监管。     

汇率影响、货币供给与通货膨胀

本文从人民银行近期政策与通货膨胀的现实意义出发,回顾了理论界有关通货膨胀主要成因的观点,并指出输入型通胀、需求拉动型通胀和成本推动型通胀是国内学者普遍认为当下通货膨胀压力的主要成因。根据经典理论分析,我国当下的通货膨胀压力是人民币汇率制度导致我国基础货币被动增发以及扩张性货币政策指导下超量货币供给所带来的流动性过剩问题。     

Should Banks Be Banned From Creating Money? An Analysis From the Perspective of Hierarchical Money

We extend the concept of “hierarchy of money” to our current monetary and financial system based on fiat money, with monetary policy that is conducted through the sale and purchase of securities and credit intermediation by non-bank financial intermediaries. This exposes a feedback loop between the upper and lower level of the hierarchy, which allows for more than full use of otherwise dormant capital, but that also increases inherent instabilities manifested in asset booms and busts. From the perspective of hierarchical money, we find that the call to ban banks from creating money neglects the significant role of securities-based financing in the global financial markets at the lower level, as well as the money creation capacity of central banks at the highest level of the hierarchy. Moreover, the inherently expansive nature of the hierarchy of money contradicts the long-term feasibility of full-reserve banking.     

货币运动与金融危机:马克思的警告

众多学者从不同的角度探讨了金融危机的成因、进程和解决办法. 在马克思货币理论的视角下,金融危机孕育于资本化的货币运动中,是商品经济发展到一定阶段,在信用发达条件下因金融资本家的疯狂投机行为使货币游离于商品之外而产生的一种危机现象. 金融危机的背后是缺乏规制的金融过度创新. 基于这一理解,我们考察当前国际金融危机的原因与本质,并得出若干结论与启示.     

再论货币核心论

古往今来的经济学家都认为货币认为货币的基本理论问题是货币的本质和职能，作提出是货币的本质、职能和数量三个，而不是两个，而且货币数量是核心。阐述了货币数量与本质、职能的关系，货币数量的对立面，货币在质上的无限的，在量上是有限的。货币数量是市场经济中的核心，社会问题中的焦点，观念、道德、伦理的标准，提出了货币数量的能量、魅力、幻觉。货币数量的增减变化是量变到部分质变到质变，货币总量及其分解，对最适货币量性质的分析。     

货币供给量作为货币政策中介目标适应牲研究

文章围绕货币政策中介目标的可测性、可控性和相关性特征，系统地对货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标的有效性进行模型分析和数据检验。研究结果表明：货币供给的内生性增强，货币供给的可控性降低；短期货币需求和货币流通速度不稳定，货币供给的可测性较差。但是，货币供给量与GDP和物价之间的相关性较好。     

货币供给量作为货币政策中介目标适应性研究

文章围绕货币政策中介目标的可测性、可控性和相关性特征,系统地对货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标的有效性进行模型分析和数据检验。研究结果表明:货币供给的内生性增强,货币供给的可控性降低;短期货币需求和货币流通速度不稳定,货币供给的可测性较差。但是,货币供给量与GDP和物价之间的相关性较好。     

A Regional Analysis of German Money Demand Around Reunification with Implications for EMU

This paper employs regional data to analyze German money demand before and after reunification. The data show that a cointegrating relationship between real per capita deposits, real per capita income and the short-term interest rate can be found in the Western states, suggesting that reunification has not destabilized monetary relationships within West-Germany. In the Eastern states, the large monetary shock following reunification precludes finding a co-integrating relationship, although in the second half of the 1990s East-German velocity growth seems to have converged to the West-German pattern. The behavior of regional monetary aggregates inside Germany also offers a preview of how in the future monetary aggregates may behave inside Europe's monetary union.     

A Simple Test of a Screening Procedure for Economics Faculty: A Note

This article discusses a graphical framework for classroom presentation of interactions between balance-of-payments flows and foreign exchange market equilibrium.     

货币供给的制度内生与需求内生实证研究

文章分别从基础货币投放的被动性、金融机构的"有价证券与外汇"资产渠道以及利率渠道对我国货币供给的内生性进行了实证研究。研究表明:我国货币供给具有较强的内生性,主要表现为基础货币供给的制度内生和信贷供给的需求内生。为提高当前紧缩性货币政策的有效性,货币当局必须稳定人民币汇率升值预期,提高法定存款准备金率、提高贷款利率尤其中长期贷款利率水平,以此削弱货币供给的制度内生和需求内生。     

热钱流入对中国经济的影响及其对策思考

从2002年开始,便有热钱进入中国市场,对我国的股市、楼市和银行系统等经济领域造成了不同程度的影响。从热钱进入的渠道、原因及其对我国经济的影响三个方面进行了深入的分析,并提出了控制热钱流入的政策建议。     

开放经济条件下中国货币供给量内生性的实证分析(2000-2005)

货币的内生性或外生性问题决定了中央银行货币政策操作目标的可控性,近期由于外汇储备变动,中国货币的内生性比较明显。因此,必须从宏观环境改革入手,辅之以各种配套的制度建设,以增强中央银行对基础货币的调控能力。     

外汇资产、基础货币供应与货币内生性——基于央行资产负债表的分析

2002年以来,人民币处于升值压力中,国际收支双顺差使得我国外汇资产迅速扩大,外汇占款成为我国基础货币投放最主要的渠道。文章基于央行资产负债表,通过定量研究方法分析了汇改前后基础货币的主要来源及其与基础货币变动的动态关系,结果发现:汇改后净国外资产增量变化成为基础货币增量变化唯一格兰杰因,国内信贷和发行票据作为对冲外汇资产增加、防止基础货币过快增长的手段均已失效,基础货币供应具有内生性,央行已不能通过控制基础货币数量来调控货币供应量。