Explaining the nonlinear effects of financial development on economic growth

Using different indicators of financial development, recent empirical studies have discovered various patterns of nonlinearity in the relationship between financial development and economic growth. By adding consumption loans, which are nonproductive, into a standard model of asymmetric information, this paper generates a model that is able to replicate all possible nonlinear finance–growth relationships found in recent empirical studies.      

"人口红利"效应与中国经济增长

中国经济"增长奇迹"源于多种因素,"人口红利"是其中最重要的因素之一.当前,我国的人口红利主要表现为较高的劳动人口比例和劳动力配置效率.但人口红利并非可持续.长期看,随着我国人口出生率下降,劳动参与率将下降;短期看,我国城乡劳动力流动障碍依然存在,不利于劳动力配置效率的进一步提高.因此,提高劳动力素质和消除城乡劳动力流动障碍,是实现我国"人口红利"效应最大化的重要措施.     

Education and saving:: The long-term effects of high school financial curriculum mandates

Over the last 40 years, a majority of states have adopted consumer education policies, and a sizable minority have mandated that high school students receive instruction on topics related to household financial decision-making. In this paper, we attempt to determine whether these mandates have had any effect on subsequent decisions. We exploit the variation in requirements both across states and over time to identify the effects of interest. The evidence indicates that mandates have raised both exposure to financial curricula and subsequent asset accumulation once exposed students reached adulthood. The estimated effects are gradual, probably due to implementation lags.     

The role of the financial sector in economic development: the Malaysian case

In this paper, we empirically examine the finance-economic development relations for the case of Malaysia. Using a battery of time series econometric techniques, we document robust evidence suggesting favorable output effects of financial market development. Likewise, there are consistent results showing the adverse real effects of financial volatility. The results of the development of financial intermediaries, however, are fragile. Moreover, the development of the financial markets hinges crucially on macro-economic performance and financial stability of the country. However, the process of financial market development is likely to be accompanied by financial volatility, leaving Malaysia with the trade-off between financial development and financial volatility. Lastly, we obtain limited evidence indicating the complementarity between financial market and banking sector developments.

设备选型的技术经济分析

在企业建设和发展过程中,设备选型是一个重要环节,制定先进、适用、合理的设备选型方法,是企业设备管理部门的重要任务.论文从技术和经济两个方面阐述了设备选型应遵循的原则,并进行了方案选择的技术经济分析,为企业设备选择提供了经济可行的方法.     

中国财政支出结构与经济增长的Granger因果关系分析

财政支出与经济增长之间有联系,那么,财政支出结构的变化是否会对经济增长起到显著的作用,它们之间的关系如何,就值得研究。可运用单位根、协整及Granger因果关系检验等计量方法,分析中国财政支出结构与经济增长的关系。     

哈尔滨地区金融知识普及教育现状调研报告及对策研究

近年来,中国经济实现了快速稳定发展,GDP逐年提升,人均收入水平不断提高,人们持有的金融资产不断增加,越来越多的人需要对自己的财富进行合理规划。同时,中国的金融业得到迅猛发展,金融服务领域不断拓宽,金融产品不断更新换代。但是,居民的金融知识水平还处于一个相对低下的水平,许多人对金融知识并不是十分了解。基于现状,围绕哈尔滨地区金融知识的普及教育状况,通过调研数据分析得出结论,并提出相应的解决对策。     

Interactions between real economic and financial sides of the US economy in a regime-switching environment

This objective of this study is to examine the linkages between real (economic) and financial variables in the United States in a regime-switching environment that accounts explicitly for high volatility in the stock market and high stress in financial markets. Since the linearity test shows that the linear model should be rejected, we employ the Markov-switching VECM to examine the same objective using the Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo method. The regime-dependent impulse response function (RDIRF) highlights the increasing importance of the financial sector of the economy during stress periods. The responses and their fluctuations are significantly greater in the high-volatility regime than in the low-volatility regime.     

International stock markets comovements: the role of economic and financial integration

The contribution of economic and financial integration to international stock markets comovements are investigated by means of a large scale macroeconometric model, set in the factor vector autoregressive framework (F-VAR). The findings point to a relevant role for both economic and financial integration in explaining international stock markets comovements for the G-7 countries. While economic integration would exercise its effects through the common response of stock markets to global economic shocks, financial integration would operate through financial shocks spillovers, particularly at the regional level.      

国内外环境素养测评发展的比较研究

鉴于国内环境素养测评研究处于起步阶段,文章追溯了国内外环境素养测评理论发展的历史脉络,对比分析了国内外学者在环境素养测评研究方面的差距和不足,以期促进国内学者研究水平的提高,促进生态文明、环境友好型社会建设。     

新形势下家庭经济困难学生资助体系存在的问题及对策研究

为解决家庭经济困难学生的学习、生活等问题,我国高校对家庭经济困难学生实行“奖、贷、补、助、勤、减、免”等一系列资助政策,取得一定的成效,但在实际操作过程中存在许多问题。从探讨家庭经济困难学生资助存在的问题出发,提出完善家庭经济困难学生资助的对策建议。     

The possible effects on the future management of local Italian authorities following the use of financial derivative instruments

The appeal from municipalities, provinces and regions to financial derivative instruments is tied to the need of overcoming the situations in a state of urgency inherent in a balance. On average, one local Italian authority in twenty has decided to underwrite a derivative product, giving life to a number of contracts that had a value of over 35 billion euro with an average value of 6.5 million for each contract until 2007. The boom of swaps has, since 2000 on, experienced a peak period from 2003 to the end of 2005, in which the Euribor rate touched a very low level, maintained itself for long periods at around 2% and fallen in some cases even under this value. Many of the contracts completed before 2006, which link the debt of local authorities to variable rates, but also many of those completed from 2006 onwards that moved debt onto fixed rate, which are now a source of loss for the balance of local authorities that have underwritten them. In the 2002-2008 period, the number of the stipulation of contracts local authorities reported to the Ministry of Economy and Finance is about 900, corresponding to more or less 150 per year, which affected 18 regions, 44 provinces, 532 municipalities and 4 mountain commtmities, for a total of 594 authorities. Therefore, the local authorities have approached the derivative instruments in an often approximate way without a real awareness, both for the conditions that were being negotiated and the effects that they would have produced in perspective. The purpose of this work is to highlight the consequences of the use of derivative instruments on the future management of local authorities.     

The effects of local government investment on economic growth and employment: evidence from transitional China

Based on the panel data of 28 provinces in the year of 1987-2001,this paper examines the effects of the local government investment on economic growth and employment.The empirical result shows that the local government investment plays a significant positive role in economic growth and emplovment.However,while the proportion of local government investment to GDP had a remarkable rise after 1998.the elasticity of local government investment on economic growth declined,which shows that there is a hig room for raising the efficiency of local government mvestment.Moreover,the empirical examination shows that although local government investment had positive effect on employment,the elasticity had a decrease after 1994 when the tax-sharing system reform was put into practice.This shows that the positive role of local government investment on emplovment is also limited.This paper argues that the role of local governments as investors must be weakened,and local governments of different levels should lessen direct economic intervention and concentrate on public regulation.     

金融危机情况下贫困女大学生的就业价值取向

面对当前的经济发展情况,就业就成了国民经济发展和解决民生问题的头等大事。目前就业现状堪忧,对于就业压力日益严峻的中国人才市场来说,作为一个特殊群体,贫困女大学生在就业过程中或许将不得不面对残酷的现实。所以,对于这些贫困女大学生来说,在就业过程中本人要树立正确的就业价值取向 学校的有关部门亦应积极完善就业帮扶机制。     

论中国金融中介发展与经济增长关系——基于2000-2007年数据的实证分析

本文对中国2000年以来金融中介发展与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,金融中介规模的发展对经济发展的促进作用存在滞后性,并且中国存款货币银行在配置国内信贷过程中相对于中央银行的重要性和经济增长之间有显着的、很强的正相关关系,说明金融中介的不发达已成为制约中国经济增长的“瓶颈”,所以中国金融改革的重心应放在大力促进存款货币银行的发展上。     

The price of size and financial market allocations

A positive equilibrium price of size exists when size is a scarce productive resource. This paper articulates a costly-state-verification model of financial contracting with heterogeneous lender sizes. We find that in a non-rationing direct lending equilibrium, (1) Financial contract is nonlinear in that expected rates of return on loans increase with loan sizes; (2) Endogenous asset indivisibility arises; (3) The total social surplus under a nonlinear contract is less than that under a linear structure; (4) Average debt size affects the market value of a firm. We also extend analysis to the case of credit rationing and financial intermediation.I thank James A. Mirrlees, Yi Jin, Charles Ka Yui Leung, and seminar participants in the 2004 Royal Economic Society Conference and the Chinese University of Hong Kong for helpful comments. Suggestions from Stephen D. Williamson (the co-eidtor) and an anonymous referee are especially acknowledged.     

美国金融危机成因分析及对中国的警示

美国金融危机引发全球金融市场动荡。这场金融危机从美国的房地产市场开始,以惊人的速度蔓延,波及至信贷市场、资本市场,封全球尤其是西方金融机构和金融市场造成重大冲击,短期内升级为全球金融风暴。中国目前正处于资产价格上涨、信贷投放过度的经济环境之中,美国的金融危机给中国敲响了警钟。本文通过描述此次危机的发展脉络,在分析美国金融危机背景的基础上,从强化房地产按揭贷款业务风险管理,审慎推进资产证券化等六个方面得出了对中国的警示。     

The legal theory of finance and the financial instability hypothesis: Convergences and possible integration

This article presents the legal theory of finance (LTF) and compares it with the financial instability hypothesis (FIH), identifying points of convergence and divergence. The study aims to contribute to the literature by connecting these theories and provides the following main conclusions. First, the LTF incorporates aspects of the FIH, as the theories share several key elements, particularly the presence of fundamental uncertainty, the constraint of liquidity, and the necessity for governments to act as lenders of last resort. Second, the liquidity concept used in the LTF can be better comprehended with the use of Keynesian and post Keynesian literature on the topic. Third, the LTF aims to advance and update certain aspects of Minsky’s theory, particularly with regard to the globalization of markets, power relations, and the interdependencies of the political economy of finance. The study concludes that the theories are more complementary than divergent and future studies should create an analytical framework that integrates the theories’ most insightful aspects.     

宏观经济景气波动对就业增长的影响

中国不成熟的市场经济和特殊的人口环境使得用就业弹性和奥肯定律均无法有效反映我国经济增长与就业关系,更无法刻画经济波动对就业的冲击。本文从宏观经济景气波动影响就业增长的三个路径：劳动力供给、劳动力需求和政府公共就业政策来建立系统的分析模型,以探析经济波动与就业增长的长期均衡关系和滞后冲击效应。在劳动力供给系统中,经济波动使经济活动人口增多,加快了就业增长;在劳动力需求系统中,经济波动不利于经济增长,从而不利于劳动力需求增长;在政府就业促进政策系统中,社会保障和就业的投入缓和了经济波动对就业增长的冲击。     

The impact of housing market disturbances on the US financial system: a pre-crisis analysis

A common critique of the Federal Reserve over the past crisis is that it should have better anticipated the impact of the run-up in home mortgage debt and the subsequent housing market crash on the financial system. As a result, the Federal Reserve should have moved much more quickly to shore up financial markets. Our article tests the hypothesis that the impact of the housing market crash on the financial system could have been anticipated. Using a VAR model along with impulse response functions and variance decompositions, we examine the link between housing market mortgage debt shocks and the financial intermediaries’ credit market behaviour. We find important connections between key macroeconomic variables and the credit behaviour of these financial institutions. However, using the pre-crisis data, we find that housing market debt shocks fail to have an impact on the credit markets accessed by these firms. These results support the notion that the impact of this crisis on the financial system could not have been anticipated given the information available at the time.