Revisiting unemployment in intermediate macroeconomics: A new approach for teaching Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides

The authors present a version of the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model of unemployment that is accessible to undergraduates and preserve the dynamic structure of the original model. The model is solvable in closed form using basic algebra and admits a graphical representation useful for illustrating a variety of comparative statics. They show how to use the model to teach the effects of labor market policies, advancements in Internet technology, and labor market dynamics. Supplementary materials such as teaching tips, a classroom experiment, and online resources including a JavaScript-based simulation tool, U.S. data used to make figures, and practice problems are provided.     

Profitable Advice: the Value of Information Provided by Canada's Inventor's Assistance Program

Inventors who are considering whether and how to commercialize their inventions. can often avail themselves to evaluations and advice provided by government supported programs initiated to encourage innovation. In Canada. such a service is provided by the Canadian Innovation Centre. through its Inventor's Assistance Program. In its twenty years of operations the IAP has evaluated 11,000 inventions. The fee charged for an invention evaluation was Cdn. $262 in 1995, and these fees covered about half the program's expenses. We compute the expected value of the information the IAP's evaluation provides under different assumptions and scenarios. Under plausible conditions, the value of the information to the inventor is found to be higher than both the fee and the social cost of the program. The implications of some inventors not following the advice given to them by the IAP are briefly explored.     

A systematic review of pharmacoeconomic guidelines

Objective: To review, summarize, and analyze both similarities and differences of pharmacoeconomic (PE) guidelines, to enable researchers to access their characteristics and the current state of PE guidelines; furthermore, to learn which methodological issues still remain contested and to promote the methodological development of PE guidelines.

Materials and methods: The authors performed a search for PE guidelines using PubMed, the Cochrane library database, and the websites of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research. Information of each guideline was extracted using a pre-designed extraction template, which included 22 aspects; the guidelines were summarized in the forms of charts, and their characteristics have been described.

Results: A total of 40 PE guidelines were studied. The most common methodological issues include the types of analysis, sources for effectiveness, use of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) to measure outcomes, and use of incremental cost effectiveness ratios to present results. The majority of the guidelines preferred a cost utility analysis with outcomes expressed in terms of QALYs. Most of the guidelines preferred meta-analysis or meta-analysis of the randomized controlled trials, and required a systematic review of all evidence. Issues that varied most in the guidelines were the choice of the comparator, recommended costs to be included, methods related to indirect cost calculations, methods of sensitivity analysis, and discounting rate.

Conclusion: A comparison of these guidelines revealed that a number of differences exist among them in several key aspects, and some critical methodological issues still exist, for which no best solution is available. Furthermore, efforts need to be made to develop harmonious methods for the PE, and to improve the transferability of the outcomes of PE evaluations.     

The Masters of Economics: Where are we Now?

In this article, the authors present results from a survey of Masters of Economics program directors to determine the missions, inputs, and outcomes of these degree programs throughout the United States and Canada. They compare results of this survey to those of two previous studies that they conducted 20 and 10 years ago. Respondents were asked to provide information on program admission requirements, curriculum, faculty characteristics, enrollment, graduation rates, student financial support, and placement. The authors describe the changes that have occurred in the most recent decade; determine whether the changes they observed between 1992 and 2002 have continued, been reinforced, or been reversed in the most recent 10 years; and determine whether any consistent long-term trends are evident over the 20 years of study.     

Challenges of population aging in China

Utilizing the most recent census and survey data as well as the new ProFamy method, this paper presents and analyzes the trends of challenges of population aging and elderly living arrangements in China in the first half of twenty-first century. It discusses the serious challenges and related policy recommendations concerning the old-age insurance program in rural China.     

Mother's autonomy: impact on the quality of children's healthcare in India

Given the poor condition of children's health in developing countries, this article seeks to examine two hypotheses concerning healthcare for children. First, does mother's autonomy influence the quality of child healthcare and, second, which is related to the first, whether mother's autonomy reduces the apparent gender bias in child healthcare. Using household survey data from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh in India the article finds that for the most part as the mother's autonomy (measured several different ways) increases, the quality of care for children improves. The results also indicate that gender bias exists in the provision of quality healthcare for children. Male children generally receive better quality care. However, for several measures of female autonomy, an increase in such autonomy reduces the bias. The results of this analysis have important policy implications and provide additional insight into the state of affairs of children's health in rural India.     

Do young women trade jobs for marriage? A skeptical view

This paper takes a skeptical view of the theory that the slight decline in young women's labor-force participation from 1985 to 1990 can be explained by the fact that there are fewer women now in their early twenties than there are men in their late twenties so that women currently have more bargaining power in the marriage market than men do.The paper argues that the assumption behind this theory, that for women marriage and employment are substitutes, is outmoded. It also contends that the theory leaves out the importance of full-time schooling as an activity alternative to employment and that in fact the increase in full-time schooling among young women has been much greater than the slight decrease in their labor-force participation.Several questions are raised about the statistical test of the theory and also about the reasons why the Wall Street Journal ran a front-page article on the slight decline in young women's labor-force participation and featured the marriage market theory as an explanation for this purported new trend.     

城市韧性研究的巴斯德范式剖析

进入21世纪以来,城市韧性研究日益兴起,理论累积也达到了一定程度,现如何开展基于生态实践智慧的城市韧性研究,使其从理论探索走向实践研究显得尤为重要。从生态实践智慧的首选研究范式——巴斯德范式的视角出发,通过Web of Science和中国知网两大平台检索城市韧性相关中英文文献,对文献进行研究范式分类统计分析,探讨了城市韧性研究中玻尔范式盛行的现象和原因,并提出了城市韧性巴斯德范式研究的建议。     

Emission taxes for genuine altruistic firms

This article develops a theoretical model that explores firms' abatement choices. The main results are: First, in a market comprised of a not sufficiently large number of heterogeneous firms always there exists a subset of firms that are willing to undertake abatement activities, if their marginal altruistic cost of emissions is positive. Second, a low emission tax induces abatement when a firm is egoistic or if its altruistic cost of emissions has a concave structure. In contrast, if the firms’ altruistic cost of emissions has a convex structure, then intermediate emission taxes are required. Third, the effect of firms’ altruistic cost of emissions on the emission tax that induce the socially optimum abatement is also conditional on the genuine altruistic preferences and finally, the social planner has an incentive to impose a Pigouvian emission tax when firms are profit maximizers. Otherwise, a lower tax suffices.     

Slonimsky's view on Antoine-Augustin Cournot∗

Abstract

In 1878 the Russian Liudvig Zinov'sevich Slonimsky published a lengthy article on the mathematization of economics. To defend the legacy of applying mathematics in the study of economics, he made ample uses of both von Thünen and Cournot's works. The article published in Russian and in the Russian Vestnik Evropy (Journal of Europe) has passed virtually ignored by economists. This notes gives a complete account of Slonimsky's references to Cournot's work.     

The cost effectiveness and budget impact of natalizumab for formulary inclusion

Abstract

Background: Crohn's disease (CD) and multiple sclerosis (MS) are debilitating autoimmune diseases, which represent a substantial cost burden in the context of managed care. As a corollary, there is an unmet pharmacotherapeutic need in patient populations with relapsing forms of MS, in addition to populations with moderately to severely active CD with evidence of inflammation who have experienced an inadequate response to other mainstream therapies. The purpose of this study was to analyze the clinical and economic data associated with natalizumab (Tysabri) and to determine the potential impact of its formulary inclusion in a hypothetical health plan.

Findings: Regarding MS, the implemented cost-effectiveness and budget-impact models demonstrated an anticipated reduction in relapse rate of 67% over 2 years, and a total therapy cost of $72,120 over 2 years, equating to a cost per relapse avoided of $56,594. With respect to the model assumptions, the market share of natalizumab would experience an increase to 8.5%, resulting in a total per-member, per-month healthcare cost increase of $0.003 ($0.002 for pharmacy costs and $0.001 for medical costs).

Regarding CD, over a 2-year period outlined by the model, natalizumab produced the highest average time in remission, steroid-free remission, and remission or response in comparison to the other agents. The mean total costs associated with the initiation of natalizumab, infliximab, and adalimumab were $68,372, $62,090, and $61,796, respectively. Although natalizumab's costs were higher, the mean time spent in remission while on this medication was 4.5 months, as opposed to 2.4 months for infliximab and 2.9 months with adalimumab. This shift in market share was used to estimate the change in total costs (medical + pharmacy), and the per-member per-month change for the model's base case was calculated to be $0.035.

Limitations: The aforementioned cost-effectiveness results for natalizumab in the treatment for CD and MS were limited by the model's predetermined assumptions. These assumptions include anticipated reduction in relapse rate after 2 years of therapy and acquisition costs in the MS model, as well as assuming a certain percentage of patients were primary and secondary failures of TNFα inhibitor therapy in the CD model.

Conclusion: The evidence presented here demonstrates that natalizumab provides clinical practitioners with another tool in their fight against both MS and CD, albeit by way of a different mechanism of action. After a thorough review of the evidence, the authors find that natalizumab has been shown to be relatively cost effective in the treatment of both conditions from a payer perspective; the therapy adds a new option for those patients for whom conventional treatment was unsuccessful.     

Neglected Implications of Neoclassical Capital-Labour Substitution for Investment Theory: Another Criticism of Say's Law

Abstract

Recent mainstream macroeconomic models take Say's Law for granted. This paper argues that the justification for this assumption is not found in general equilibrium theory but in the ‘neoclassical-synthesis’ (and then monetarist) criticism of Keynes, which relies in a fundamental way on a treatment of investment that turns out to depend not only on neoclassical capital-labour substitution (called into questioned by the Cambridge controversies) but also on an assumption of full labour employment that on the contrary should be a result of the analysis. This paper first criticizes the attempt to justify a negative interest-elastic investment function through adjustment costs, that is, without relying on traditional neoclassical capital-labour substitution, with special attention on the treatment in Romer's advanced textbook. Then it proceeds to its new contribution, the demonstration that an endogenous determination of labour employment raises questions about the capacity of decreases in the real wage to raise employment even accepting neoclassical capital-labour substitution, because when the latter is correctly understood the rate of interest does not suffice to determine investment; hence, there is an inevitable role for the accelerator (and Say's Law is thereby undermined). This was perceived by Dornbusch and Fischer but they did not realize that then reductions of real wages will reduce investment instead of raising it. Thus, the ‘neoclassical synthesis’ reply to Keynes is undermined even apart from the inconsistencies of neoclassical capital theory. So the paper exposes a deficiency of the neoclassical arguments in support of a tendency toward full employment, additional to the inconsistencies revealed by the capital critique.     

The political economy of delayed reform

Abstract

The role of economic policy in Finland's depression of the 1990s is analyzed with a simple model of an open economy, and the conditions for a successful financial reform derived: Let the system adjust after the removal of interest rate ceilings, and the domestic interest rate then be aligned with foreign rates before liberalizing international capital flows. In Finland, the financial system was liberalized simultaneously with international capital movements, with the domestic shadow interest rate initially considerably higher than the international market rates. A capital inflow the size of the monetary base followed, leading to the ‘crazy years’ of 1987–89. With a large current account deficit, the Bank of Finland tightened money sharply, causing a banking crisis practically wiping out the savings bank sector. The GDP declined by 13%. Several lesser policy measures aggravated the crisis.     

Oil shocks,policy uncertainty and stock returns in China

This paper examines the interdependence of China's policy uncertainty, the global oil market and stock market returns in China. A structural VAR model is estimated that shows that a positive shock to economic policy uncertainty in China has a delayed negative effect on global oil production, real oil prices and real stock market returns. Shocks to oil market‐specific demand significantly raise China's economic policy uncertainty and reduce the real stock market returns. As measured by a spillover index, the interdependence between these variables has been rising since 2003 as China's influence in the oil market has increased. An equivalent spillover index calculated for the US is smaller and has been largely flat over time.     

Efficiency characteristics of a market for state contingent claims

This paper concludes that a market for state-contingent claims (UK horserace betting) displays evidence of pervasive but heterogeneous forms of inefficiency, in significant contrast to earlier investigations. Using hitherto unavailable data, comparison of notional returns implicit in parallel sets of bookmaker and parimutuel odds identifies inefficiency in terms of zones of distinct but contrasting forms of cross-;market returns differential. The inefficiency is rationalized in terms of both buyer and supplier behaviour; its durability is explained in terms of limited arbitrage opportunities.     

突出特色是旅游规划的灵魂

旅游业发展需要特色突出的旅游规划，特色突出有利于增强旅游业、旅游景区的吸引力和竞争力。特色不突出导致重复建设，造成资源和投资浪费，也是部分旅游规划存在的缺陷。建立在《旅游规划通则》中，增加突出特色的条目，并通过组建多学科专家队伍，保证完成特色突出、高水平的旅游规划。     

Generalized beta distributions for describing and analysing intraday stock market data: testing the U-shape pattern

There is an impressive body of empirical evidence which indicates the existence of an intraday U-shaped curve in stock prices. In an effort to shed additional light on the U-shaped curve a new procedure for U-shape testing is introduced. From careful analysis of intraday data it is observed that minimum or maximum stock prices can occur several times during the day. Here, attention is focused on the first time during the day that the maximum or minimum stock price occurred. Because of the importance of the first time during the day that the maximum or minimum stock price occurred, an attempt is made to model these two characteristics with probability distributions. The objective of this study is to use a generalized beta distribution to examine the intradaily behaviour of stocks, using closing stock prices for each one-minute interval, using data from Athens Stock Exchange (ASE). This generalized beta distribution has not been used before to model U-shaped behaviour. The results are consistent with the intraday U-shaped curves, i.e. the time to first maximum (or minimum) stock prices follows a U-shaped pattern. In addition, some potential applications of the generalized beta distribution are discussed and exemplified by analysing the relationship between herd behaviour and U-shaped.     

煤化工技术群组分类和趋势预测:来自专利数据的分析

以国家知识产权局专利数据库为数据来源,采用专利文本挖掘、聚类分析和技术预测相结合的方法,结合R-stideo软件和Loglet Lab软件中的统计分析工具,针对煤化工技术进行技术群组分类及趋势预测研究。研究表明:煤化工技术可分成六大技术群组,即污水处理技术群组、煤气净化技术群组、煤气化技术群组、传统煤化工群组、污染物监测技术群组以及煤液化技术群组。传统煤化工技术专利申请量已进入下降期,表明传统煤化工技术进入衰退期,未来向更加清洁的新型煤化工方向发展;煤气净化技术、煤气化技术和煤液化技术等,经过发展进入稳定发展期,市场空间巨大;污水处理技术和污染物检测技术作为污染治理方面的技术处于快速发展阶段,污水处理技术正朝着更加高效、更加环保以及方法更加综合的方向发展,煤气净化技术正向着更加经济、环保、可靠和高效的方向发展。