Collaborative teaching pedagogy used in conjunction with a simulation economy

In order to enhance the interest and motivation for students to learn introductory economics, the authors have initiated the creation of a simulation game in which the students are the actors in a self-contained class economy. The students are placed in competitive groups in which they have the role of a firm that produces a good and a household that consumes products. A collaborative learning pedagogy with the simulation was also instituted. Using collected data that measure the impact of this alternative approach, compared to a class taught without the collaborative exercises or the simulation game, it was found that students enjoyed the simulation game and found it worthwhile. Overall, the simulation game and this new approach to teaching introductory economics did not have a negative impact on academic achievement.     

仿真技术在企业ERP人员培训中的应用与分析

企业ERP人才培养正受到越来越多重视，将新技术应用于ERP人才培养是当前的一个研究热点。在简要介绍ERP和仿真技术的基础上，论述了系统仿真在ERP人才培养中的应用现状和趋势。最后对基于计算机仿真技术的ERP人员培训软件平台进行了分析和并给出了平台设计的思路。     

RIDGE ESTIMATORS FOR PROBIT REGRESSION: WITH AN APPLICATION TO LABOUR MARKET DATA

In this paper we propose ridge regression estimators for probit models since the commonly applied maximum likelihood (ML) method is sensitive to multicollinearity. An extensive Monte Carlo study is conducted where the performance of the ML method and the probit ridge regression (PRR) is investigated when the data are collinear. In the simulation study we evaluate a number of methods of estimating the ridge parameter k that have recently been developed for use in linear regression analysis. The results from the simulation study show that there is at least one group of the estimators of k that regularly has a lower mean squared error than the ML method for all different situations that have been evaluated. Finally, we show the benefit of the new method using the classical Dehejia and Wahba dataset which is based on a labour market experiment.     

The Interplay between Analytics and Computation in the Study of Congestion Externalities: The Case of the El Farol Problem

In this paper I study the El Farol problem, a deterministic, boundedly rational, multi‐agent model of a resource subject to congestion externalities that was initially studied computationally by Arthur (1994). I represent the interaction as a game, compute the set of Nash equilibria in mixed strategies of this game, and show analytically how the method of inductive inference employed by the agents in Arthur's computer simulation leads the empirical distribution of aggregate attendance to be like those in the set of Nash equilibria of the game. This set contains only completely mixed strategy profiles, which explains why aggregate attendance appears random in the computer simulation even though its set‐up is completely deterministic.     

提钒-炼钢生产调度的优化与仿真研究

针对提钒-炼钢企业的生产调度系统中生产周期过长、资源利用率过低等问题,本文在分析了提钒-炼钢生产调度系统的特点的基础上,构建了生产调度数学模型。并结合遗传算法,利用面向对象的仿真技术,在eM-Plant仿真环境下进行了提钒-炼钢生产调度优化。最后,通过应用实例,证明了遗传算法与仿真模型混合优化生产调度的可行性,为提高提钒-炼钢厂的生产力提供了理论依据。     

基于过程神经网络的市场评价

本文阐述了用神经网络领域最新出现的过程神经网络处理市场评估、企业评价等经济管理问题的斯方法。网络的输入为反映一段时间内市场供求变化的信息,而这是传统神经网络不宜做到的。这也正是过程神经网络的独到之处。文中给出了网络模型及算法推导,实验结果证明了该方法的有效性。     

Determinants of patent value: Insights from a simulation analysis

This paper contributes to understanding the determinants of patent value. By drawing on a real options approach, we develop a theoretical model of patent value, which explicitly considers the uncertainty about future value. On this basis, we rely on Monte Carlo simulations with data from a case study in a large chemical firm to estimate patent value according to our model. In the simulation analyses, we compare an R&D project with patent protection and the same project without patent protection. The difference of the values of the two projects is the surplus in profit that may be expected from having a patent covering the project. This surplus is regarded as the value that is directly attributable to the patent. The results of the simulation analyses indicate that the development costs and expected net cash flows of a patent-protected project are higher than of an unpatented project. The higher net cash flows outgrow the increased development costs, and patent value is positive. However, this value is smaller than the overall project value of the patent-protected R&D project.     

Coevolution and stable adjustments in the cobweb model

The paper is concerned with genetic algorithm learning in a cobweb economy. Besides discussing several specification details in the genetic operators, the model includes four different types of firm forecasting rules and subjects the demand side to serially correlated random shocks. The main finding of the simulation experiments is that the genetic algorithm is a reasonably good approximation of the moving Walrasian equilibria, and that this process is characterized by the coevolution of different strategies. Accordingly, it is just the persistent heterogeneity of firms, and the persistently changing composition of this heterogeneity, that achieves stability. In this world, convergence is improved by weak, rather than strong, evolutionary pressure.     

工业经济协调发展系统动力学仿真——以青岛市为例

系统动力学研究的是复杂系统的反馈结构,擅长于处理非线性时变的多重反馈问题,比较适合于长期、动态、战略性的研究,是研究区域产业经济协调发展系统的一种重要的定量分析工具.本文采用该方法,建立了青岛市工业经济协调发展的系统动力学模型进行模拟仿真,模型由工业经济子系统、区域技术创新子系统和区域经济环境子系统组成,通过模拟仿真进行工业经济发展趋势预测,仿真值和真实值误差较小,模型能较好的反映青岛市工业经济发展现状.并选择政府科技投入占财政支出比例和投资比例作为控制变量,以工业生产总值和区域GDP为监测变量建立三种发展模式,通过不同发展模式仿真结果的分析和比较,提出青岛市应加大政府科技投入占财政支出比例和投资比例,实现工业经济协调发展.     

The European Union's potential for strategic emissions trading through permit sales contracts

Strategic market behavior by permit sellers will harm the European Union (EU) as it is expected to become a large net buyer of permits in a follow-up agreement to the Kyoto Protocol. In this paper, we explore how the EU could benefit from making permit trade agreements with non-EU countries. These trade agreements involve permit sales requirement, complemented by a financial transfer from the EU to the other contract party. Such agreements would enable the EU to act strategically in the permit market on behalf of its member states, although each member state is assumed to behave as a price taker in the permit market. Using a stylized numerical simulation model, we show that an appropriately designed permit trade agreement between the EU and China could significantly cut the EU's total compliance cost. This result is robust for a wide range of parameterizations of the simulation model.     

A panel data model with interactive effects characterized by multilevel non-parallel factors

Current research only considers parallel factors in factor models. In this article, we provide an algorithm based on cross principal component analysis that identifies and estimates a panel data model with interactive effects characterized by multilevel and non-parallel factors. The simulation results show that our estimator is consistent, converges quickly and outperforms other estimators that identify the factor structure incorrectly.     

Divestiture of Generation Assets in the Electricity Pool of England and Wales: A Computational Approach to Analyzing Market Power

The task of developing an adequate modeling approach to understanding strategic behavior in competitive electricity markets is still a major open research question. In this paper, we develop an based on computational modeling and simulation. We apply the new approach to analyzing the second round (1999) of capacity divestiture proposals, which the government and regulatory authorities in England and Wales required in order to improve the efficiency of the wholesale power market. In this context, we suggest that, for a second time, the level of market power may be underestimated and that although the proposed amount of divestiture is substantial, it may still be insufficient to avoid the need for further regulatory controls in the short term.     

Modelling industrial dynamics with “History-friendly” simulations

The use of simulation techniques has increased greatly in recent years. In economics the industrial dynamics approach makes use of simulation techniques to understand the complexity of the industrial process of continuous change. Among these models, a new branch of studies known as “History-friendly” models aims at establishing a close link between formal theory, developing stand-alone theoretical simulation models, and empirical evidence. In this paper, we study “History-friendly” analyses and counterfactuals. Some examples of “History-friendly” models are widely examined. Finally, the paper makes a critical contribution to “History-friendly” methodology and defines the role of “History-friendly” models in the debate on the empirical validation of simulations.     

燃油税改革对我国节能减排影响的动态CGE研究

2009年1月1日起我国实施成品油税费改革。燃油税是一种经济信号,其变动会引起一个经济体全方位的反应。采用动态CGE模型——MCHUGE模型对燃油税改革对我国节能减排的影响进行仿真研究。研究表明,燃油税改革在短期和长期均能显著降低中国的能源强度,其原因是燃油税改革优化了中国经济的产业结构,第二产业尤其是重工业在GDP中所占比重下降,减少了总体的能源消费。     

Ability transmission,endogenous fertility and educational subsidy

In this study, we attempt to investigate how educational subsidy, childcare allowance and family allowance affect economic growth and income distribution on the basis of simulation models which incorporate intergenerational ability transmission and endogenous fertility. The simulation results show that financial support for higher education can both increase economic growth and reduce income inequality, especially if the abilities of parent and child are closely correlated. In contrast with educational subsidy, raising childcare allowance or family allowance has limited impacts on growth and income inequality.     

存在动态互反扩散影响的品牌信任危机模型仿真

通过构建微分动力系统模型描述了品牌危机演化过程中采取不同信任策略的消费者群体人数的变化规律,应用相轨线分析了系统平衡点的稳定性。算例仿真的结果显示媒体负面宣传以及消费者之间消极的口碑相传对品牌危机的爆发具有显著的推动作用;企业危机沟通及消费者积极的口碑传播在一定程度上能够缓解消费者恐慌、延缓危机爆发时间。     

Spurious principal components

The principal component regression (PCR) is often used to forecast macroeconomic variables when there are many predictors. In this letter, we argue that it makes sense to pre-whiten the predictors before including these in a PCR. With simulation experiments, we show that without such pre-whitening, spurious principal components can appear and that these can become spuriously significant in a PCR. With an illustration to annual inflation rates for five African countries, we show that non-spurious principal components can be genuinely relevant in empirical forecasting models.