会计信息可靠性与盈余持续性——来自沪、深股市的经验证据

本文以2001--2004年沪深股市上市公司为样本，考察了会计信息可靠性与盈余持续性。研究发现．更可靠的会计信息具有更高的盈余自相关系数和股票回报，会计信息可靠性与盈余持续性正相关。从盈余自相关角度看，更可靠的会计信息具有更强的盈余持续性。从股票回报角度看，市场符合“幼稚投资者”假说，存在利润“功能锁定”现象，市场不能充分理解会计信息可靠性与盈余相关性的关系，对会计信息可靠性给出了异常定价。本结论有力地支持了新会计准则对真实性和可靠性的强调。     

中国上市公司盈余和盈余构成的错误定价——来自A股市场的经验证据

A股公司盈余（EARN）和盈余构成（应计盈余ACC和现金盈余CFO）的错误定价与成熟资本市场并不完全一致。一致的地方在于确实存在“应计异象”。不一致的地方在于“应计异象”的相对性。在分年度的检验中,EARN、ACC和CFO的错误定价方向一致,CFO和EARN的错误定价程度基本相同,相对于CFO的错误定价程度,ACC被高估——出现高估的时候,ACC被高估的程度更大;出现低估的时候,CFO被低估的程度更大。一个简单的模型表明,由于这种相对的高估,ACC和CFO的错误定价可以出现三种组合。     

强势企业、政治关系与盈余管理方式——来自深沪上市公司的经验证据

将盈余管理方式分为应计盈余管理与真实活动盈余管理,以深沪两市19个行业的企业2009~2013年数据为样本,研究发现强势企业较弱势企业进行了相对较高的真实盈余管理与较低的应计盈余管理。有政治关系的强势企业比无政治关系的强势企业进行了较高的应计盈余管理。从真实盈余管理的方向来看,强势企业利用隐蔽的盈余管理方式将业绩做大使得其强者表现更强。     

资产负债项目可靠性、盈余持续性及其市场反应

本文将资产负债项目的可靠性和盈余的持续性相联系,并探讨资本市场能否解读这种联系。首先,理论分析表明可靠性更差的资产负债项目导致盈余的持续性更低。其次对应计项目进行分类并评价其可靠性。最后,证据表明,更不可靠的应计项目导致盈余的持续性更低,并且资本市场没有充分预期到这种联系从而作出错误反应。这些结果说明,在财务报表中确认可靠性更低的应计项目会导致更大的成本,相关性的获得不应以牺牲可靠性为代价。     

无形资产的市场定价——来自中国股市的经验证据

采用配对分析法,考察了无形资产及无形资产摊销会计信息与企业市场价值之间的关系,结果表明,无形资产会计信息具有价值相关性;无形资产的系统摊销没有反映其价值消耗形式.     

金字塔结构与会计盈余可靠性——来自中国民营上市公司的经验证据

以2006~2008年中国民营上市公司为研究样本,研究了金字塔结构对民营上市公司会计盈余可靠性的影响。研究发现,实际控制人的现金流量权与上市公司盈余可靠性呈U型关系;在控制了现金流量权后,实际控制人的控制权越低,即两权分离程度越低,则上市公司会计盈余可靠性越高;上市公司被占用的资金越大,上市公司的盈余可靠性越低。     

信息可靠性、企业成长性与会计盈余持续性

本文以我国2001至2006年期间上市公司为研究对象,延续FWY和RSST的方法,考察信息可靠性和企业成长性对应计利润持续性较差现象的解释力。我们采用经营资产利润率与经营资产现金获取率的均方差计量信息可靠性。研究发现,企业成长性越好,信息失真值越高;会计扭曲越严重,应计利润的持续性越差;信息可靠性越高(低),会计盈余持续性越高(低);应计利润和现金收益整体对下一期的会计盈余预测能力越强(弱),会计盈余持续性检验模型的解释力越高(低);应计利润较现金收益的持续性差,且这种现象不因信息可靠性高或低而改变。     

借款费用、长期融资和盈余管理——来自房地产上市公司的经验证据

本文以房地产上市公司为切入点分析借款费用会计准则对企业融资和经营的影响。研究发现,第一,从企业融资活动看,由于新准则拓宽了可资本化借款费用和符合资本化条件资产的范围,因而其实施与房地产企业的长期融资增长显著正相关,但无法决定长期融资实际水平。第二,从企业盈余管理行为看,由于新规定在一般借款费用资本化金额决定方面给予企业选择空间,从而给企业提供了新的盈余管理途径;新准则实施前后房地产企业的应计项目盈余管理和真实项目盈余管理行为有明显不同。     

制度变革、盈余持续性与市场定价行为研究

本文将会计制度变迁、配股政策的变革和股权分置改革作为资本市场制度变革的典型代表引入Ohlson剩余收益模型,结合盈余持续性分析了其对市场定价行为的影响。研究发现:随着我国证券市场的发展,营业利润在市场定价中发挥着主导作用,线下项目的定价作用减弱;随着配股政策和会计制度等的改革,线下项目对配股权在市场定价中的作用下降;会计制度改革和股权分置改革增强了持续性盈余的定价作用。这说明,制度变革提高了市场效率。     

盈余管理行为与证券市场指数关系的研究——来自深交所上市公司的经验证据

投资者在投资决策时通常对企业财务状况进行比较,所以,为争取投资者的有限资金,上市公司会采取措施取得或保持相对业绩优势,而进行盈余管理就是措施之一.假定证券市场指数的变化反应了上市公司平均盈利水平的变化,那么,单个上市公司为保持相对业绩优势就会随市场指数的上涨而进行增加利润的盈余管理行为,而市场指数下降时会将以前多计提的利润转回或储存一部分利润.当单个公司的策略成为所有上市公司的策略时,盈余管理行为就会影响市场的整体盈利水平,并进而影响股市指数的走势.这一现象的存在为政府干预股市提供了直接依据.     

会计盈余、现金流量的价值相关性实证研究基于沪深股市的实证证据

已有的研究结果说明会计盈余具有价值相关性。从盈余等于经营现金流量与应计利润之和这一新的视角切入，以实证的方法对沪深两地上市的A股公司进行三大样本检验。并通过建立股票报酬与应计利润和现金流量的回归方程，利用应计利润回归系数的显著性对会计盈余与现金流量的价值相关性做比较，结果表明，会计盈余的价值相关性要大于现金流量的价值相关性。     

Accounting losses and earnings conservatism: evidence from Australian Generally Accepted Accounting Principles

We provide evidence on three important aspects of Australian financial reporting; namely, the characteristics of losses, the extent to which Australian firms’ earnings are conditionally conservative (i.e. bad news is reflected in earnings more quickly than good news) and the extent to which losses reflect incrementally greater conditional conservatism. We find evidence that loss incidence in Australia is frequent, with around 40 per cent of the sample firm‐years from 1993 to 2003 being losses. Losses are also surprisingly persistent, and the probability of loss reversal declines monotonically as the history of losses extends. Although conditional conservatism is also shown to be a pervasive aspect of Australian Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, we demonstrate that it is more evident among loss observations. This result is robust across different methods of capturing conditional conservatism, and supports the conclusion that the relatively high frequency of losses is, at least in part, a reflection of conservative reporting.     

Ownership Restrictions and Stock Prices: Evidence from Chinese Markets

In this paper, I test a one-period capital asset pricing model (CAPM) under share ownership restrictions to explain differences in prices and expected excess returns between the classes of shares that can be bought and traded by domestic and foreign investors, respectively, in the Chinese stock markets. I find that cross-sectional variability in the spread between the expected domestic and foreign share excess returns is related to differences in individual shares' market betas. The empirical results are by and large consistent with the CAPM. After the betas are controlled for, idiosyncratic variance and firm size have no effect.     

非寿险公司赔款准备金与盈余管理——中国市场的经验分析

利用我国非寿险公司2001~2007年的财务数据,采用分位数回归方法探讨非寿险公司赔款准备金调整的动机,并比较非寿险业务准备金评估方法改变前后公司实现盈余管理动机的差异。研究发现,非寿险公司存在实现盈余管理的现象,相比规避递延税收的目的而言,管理层故意调整公司当年赔款准备金数字进行盈余平滑的动机更为显著。当公司当期盈余表现差于前一期时,管理者倾向于低估当期赔款准备金提升账面盈余;若当期盈余表现优于前一期时,则高估准备金平滑盈余。在当年承保业务不佳,赔付率较高时,非寿险公司具有低估准备金掩饰承保质量的动机。2005年非寿险业务赔款准备金评估方法的改变,显著增强了非寿险公司利用赔款准备金进行盈余管理的动机。     

Interest Rates and Stock Prices: Evidence from Central and Eastern European Markets

We provide empirical evidence regarding the responses of Central and Eastern European capital markets to monetary policy via domestic and international short-term interest rate shocks. The analysis is conducted using a four-variable structural vector error correction model identified by means of permanent-transitory restrictions. The results indicate a noticeable effect of the international interest rate on stock market indexes in the cases of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania. Since no monetary policy autonomy exists in Bulgaria, Latvia, and Lithuania, we find support only for the inverse relationship between foreign interest rate and stock index prices.     

The Lead–Lag Relationship Between Stock Indices and Stock Index Futures Contracts: Further Australian Evidence

This article examines the lead-lag relationship in returns on stock index futures and the underlying stock index for the Australian market between 1992 and 1997. On average across the sample period, futures returns lead index returns by twenty to twenty-five minutes and there is some evidence of feedback from the equities market to the futures market. Analysis conducted on a year-by-year basis suggests that the extent to which the futures market leads the equities market has decreased over time and the relationship between the two markets has generally strengthened. This is consistent with an increase in the level of integration between the markets. The results suggest that prior research that compares lead-lag relationships across international markets and time periods in drawing inferences on the effects of market structure needs to be interpreted with caution.     

上市公司并购的股价效应——来自2007年沪深A股市场的经验证据

采用有双变量GARCH模型进行修正过的事件研究方法,对2007年中国沪、深两市51起代表性并购事件进行实证研究.结果表明,在短期内,并购能给目标公司带来显著的价值增值,但在长期内并不明显;并购公司不同并购策略能给目标公司带来不同的影响;经营业务专业化与区域位置集中化类型的并购使目标公司价值增大的概率较大.     

公允价值会计:理论分析与经验证据

公允价值会计一直是会计准则制定者与银行界及其监管机构之间争论的焦点.围绕着公允价值会计的争论全面而系统地综述了国外关于公允价值会计对银行业及监管影响的相关研究成果.从历史成本向公允价值转变确实会对银行业及其监管、乃至整个金融体系产生重大影响,在决定是否采用公允价值作为财务报表的主要计量手段之前,需要对公允价值所产生的影响做出不断深入的研究.     

The Effectiveness of Price Limits and Stock Characteristics: Evidence from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges

We examine the effectiveness of price limits on Chinese A shares and investigate the characteristics of those stocks that hit their price limits more frequently. We find that the effect of price limits is asymmetric for the A shares in upward and downward price movements and different for bullish and bearish sample periods. During a bullish period price limits effectively reduce stock volatility for downward price movements, but not for upward price movements; while during a bearish period price limits effectively reduce stock volatility for upward price movements, but not for downward price movements. Second, price limits delay efficient price discovery for upward price movements, but not for downward price movements. However, we do not find evidence to suggest that price limits harmfully interfere with the stock trading processes in the Chinese A share markets. Finally, we find that actively traded stocks hit their price limits more often and tend to hit the lower limit more frequently when overall market conditions are bearish. Stocks with high book-to-market values of equity hit their upper price limits more frequently, while stocks with a high ratio of tradable shares tend to hit their price limits less frequently.JEL Classification: G10, G14, G15