我国商业银行规模经济问题的实证研究——基于随机前沿模型的分析

本文运用随机前沿模型对我国商业银行1996-2004年的规模经济问题进行了实证研究。与国内已有研究不同的是,在实证过程中,我们对超越对数成本函数和Cobb-Douglas成本函数设定进行了假设检验;同时,在商业银行产出中,考虑了投资的作用。实证结果表明,国有商业银行均表现出规模不经济,而股份制商业银行基本上都表现出规模经济性。     

产能利用率与债券信用利差——基于随机前沿函数的分析

以2008—2017年沪深上市公司债券数据为研究样本,考察我国债券市场对企业产能利用情况的信息传递效率。结果发现:产能利用率与企业债券信用利差负相关,产能过剩的企业债券信用利差更高,但存在不对称的提前和延迟反应效果。进一步研究表明,与民营企业相比,国有企业债券识别产能过剩风险的能力被削弱;经济政策不确定性提升了债券市场对产能利用信息反应的敏感性;担保人的存在强化了债券定价的信号传递效率,但当产能严重过剩时,担保人的存在反而不利于信用风险的及时暴露;"去产能"宏观政策对债券市场传递微观企业产能利用信息也有显著的调节效应。实证检验显示,我国债券市场能够传递产能过剩背后的风险,对产能利用率低的企业具有治理作用。研究结论为金融服务实体经济提供了债券市场的证据,对当前改善产能过剩和提高企业经营效率具有重要的启示意义。     

The Gravity Model and Trade Efficiency: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis of Eastern European Countries' Potential Trade

The opening up process of the eastern European countries is characterised by an increasing degree of trade integration with their Western neighbouring countries. Typically, the degree of East–West trade integration is assessed by comparing actual trade volumes with potential trade volumes projected from the gravity model parameters estimated for a group of countries that best represent normal trade relations. This approach, however, does not compare trade levels against a maximum level of trade feasible for the group of eastern European countries. This paper using a stochastic frontier specification of the gravity model is able to identify the efficiency of trade integration relative to maximum potential levels. The findings, based on a panel data set of bilateral exports from 17 Western European countries to the 10 new member states over the 1994–2007 period, indicate a high degree of East–West trade integration close to two‐thirds of frontier estimates, suggesting a low degree of trade resistances.     

Testing for Wage Overpayment in UK Financial Services: A Stochastic Frontier Approach

The past ten years have witnessed a sharp rise in competition in UK financial services. This has been due to factors such as liberalisation, increases in technology and advancing globalisation. As a result of these pressures there has been an increasing emphasis placed on cost management and overall efficiency in the financial services firm. This article examines the impact of these developments on the degree of wage overpayment in the UK financial services sector between 1991 and 1999. By utilising stochastic frontier methodology, we surprisingly find that overpayment levels are large at around 30 per cent and that there is no evidence of a decline in overpayment levels over the testable period.     

Cross‐border Economic Activities,Human Capital and Efficiency: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis for OECD Countries

We study the growth effects of outward‐ori,ented econ,o,mies by using sto,chas,tic fron,tier anal,y,sis to mea,sure the effi,ciency exter,nal,i,ties of three forms of eco,n,omic cross‐bor,der activ,i,ties – inter,na,tional trade, for,eign direct invest,ment (FDI) and migra,tion – for OECD coun,tries. The study also exam,ines whether the effi,ciency of these cross‐bor,der activ,i,ties is affected by the level of human cap,i,tal in the host coun,try. We find that inter,na,tional trade and FDI are impor,tant chan,nels for improv,ing effi,ciency, as is human cap,i,tal accu,mu,la,tion, and that the positive effects of inter,na,tional trade, FDI, and migra,tion depend cru,cially on the level of accu,mu,lated human cap,i,tal. Our results show that the impact of human cap,i,tal is impor,tant for increas,ing effi,ciency via inter,na,tional trade flows and FDI flows, while immi,gra,tion into coun,tries that are richer in human cap,i,tal enhances their effi,ciency rel,a,tively more than immi,gra,tion into coun,tries with lower human cap,i,tal. These results remain robust to alter,nate mea,sures of human cap,i,tal, con,trols on edu,ca,tion lev,els among immi,grants, and to a non‐para,met,ric esti,ma,tion of the model.     

FOCUS: German Banks - What Role do they Really Play?

The Spokesman of Deutsche Bank's Board of Managing Directors delivered The Gilbart Lecture on Banking last year under the auspices of King's College London at an occasion sponsored by the National Westminster Bank plc and organised by the Chartered Institute of Bankers. The text of Herr Kopper's lecture is reproduced here with permission.     

Stakeholders' Impact on Turnaround Performance: The Case of German Savings Banks

This study explores how savings banks as powerful stakeholders of SMEs in Germany assess turnaround performance. It tests the impact of the support provided by German savings banks and distressed SMEs' actions with survey data from corporate advisors. The results show that structural and continuing support foster turnaround performance. This support is conducive in the initial stage of turnaround but negligible in the recovery stage. Contributing to stakeholder theory and turnaround management, the findings shed light on the factors that motivate a selected stakeholder's involvement and SMEs' ability to engage in actions fostering this stakeholder's support for a turnaround.     

中南半岛贸易潜力及其影响因素——基于随机前沿引力模型的实证分析

中国—中南半岛经济走廊建设,是推进"一带一路"倡议的战略节点和关键纽带之一。本文使用时变随机前沿引力模型研究中国对中南半岛国家的贸易潜力,并采用一步法分析影响贸易潜力的主要因素。结果表明,由于存在贸易阻力,中国对中南半岛出口效率不断降低,贸易阻力随时间变化而增加,使得出口潜力增加,未来出口潜力较大。中南半岛国家应完善相关合作机制,降低关税及非关税壁垒,改善运输、交通基础设施,增加金融自由度。中国则应进一步优化产业结构,提高技术水平,从而提升出口优势,有效释放贸易潜力。     

区域技术效率的随机前沿分析与测算——基于财政体制改革的视角

文章利用省区面板数据,采用随机前沿分析方法,从财政支出结构的演进对技术前沿的影响和财政分权体制改革对技术效率的影响这一视角,测算了1992-2009年间我国30个省区的技术效率,并对技术效率水平及其变动趋势、技术效率的区域差距及其变化轨迹进行了分析.结果显示:我国区域经济存在技术无效性,技术效率水平整体偏低,并以20世纪90年代中后期为转折点,先上升,然后持续下降 ;全国各省区间和三大地带间的技术效率差距则都以20世纪90年代中后期为转折点,先缩小,然后持续扩大 ;而三大地带内部各省区间的技术效率差距则都有所缩小.文章进一步从财政分权体制、财政支出结构、制度环境和经济转型等多个角度分析了其中的原因,并提出了相应的政策建议.     

Richard Deeg,Financial Capitalism Unveiled: Banks and the German Political Economy

Small Business Economics -     

铁路建设对我国“一带一路”战略的贸易效应研究——基于运输时间和运输距离视角的异质性随机前沿模型分析

"一带一路"战略是我国经济转型与升级的跳板,道路联通与贸易畅通作为其近期目标备受关注。在此背景下,本文利用29个省市1998-2013年的面板数据,通过构建异质性随机前沿模型分析了铁路建设对各省市贸易非效率部分的影响,进而测算出其相应的出口贸易效率。模型回归结果表明,铁路运输时间节省及运输距离减少均能够有效提高出口贸易效率,且铁路里程的缩短还具有稳定出口贸易效率波动的作用;同时,要素禀赋对出口贸易规模影响显著,政府干预度对出口贸易效率及其波动性也有显著影响。经过测算可知,当前我国各省市平均的出口贸易效率约为67.3%,呈现出"东高西低"的地区差异特征,今后仍具有较大的出口贸易潜力空间。     

金融异质性对中国对外直接投资效率影响研究——基于随机前沿引力模型

构建随机前沿引力模型,从金融异质性视角研究中国对外直接投资(OFDI)效率的影响因素。结果表明:中国对外投资效率受商业发展、外贸和国内信贷的负向影响,而汇率指数和净出口与中国对外投资效率正相关。通过测算投资效率指数,发现中国对外直接投资效率较低,比最优水平低50%～60%,且地域差别明显。其中重要原因是不同国家金融环境差异对中国对外直接投资产生较大阻力。深化金融业对外开放,积极寻求对外金融合作,有利于充分发挥中国对外投资潜力,提升投资效率。     

兼业对农户种粮技术效率的影响研究——基于随机前沿生产函数的实证

为了检验兼业对农户种粮技术效率的影响,基于农户的微观调查数据,本文运用超效率生产函数形式的随机前沿生产函数法测算农户种粮技术效率,基于Tobit模型实证分析农户种粮技术性效率的影响因素。研究发现:农户种粮的技术效率损失主要来源于管理误差,专业农户种粮技术效率显著高于兼业农户;投入要素产出弹性的排序为生产性资金>劳动力>土地,劳动力与生产性资金、土地与生产性资金之间存在要素替代关系;兼业、土地细碎化降低了农户种粮技术效率,而粮食播种面积、身体健康条件、参加种粮技术培训增加了农户种粮技术效率。因此,需要有序引导低技术效率的兼业农户退出粮食种植,定期开展针对农户的种粮技术培训,完善农机社会化服务市场,并提升农民技术、管理等方面的信息获取能力。     

政府补贴、要素市场扭曲与企业创新——基于双边随机边界模型的分析

要素市场的扭曲弱化甚至也影响了政府补贴对企业创新的激励效应,为更准确反映这两个因素的作用程度及综合效应,本文以我国制造业2009-2016年A股上市公司为研究样本,在双边随机边界模型统一框架下测度和验证政府补贴、要素市场扭曲对企业创新的影响。研究发现:平均而言,政府补贴对企业创新的驱动效应并未完全冲抵要素市场扭曲对企业创新的抑制效应,二者的综合效应最终导致企业实际创新低于有效创新7.91%;通过产权异质性、地区差异和不同生命周期视角的考察,发现政府补贴和要素市场扭曲的综合效应使得企业实际创新低于有效创新这一状况并未随着企业特征分组而明显改善。因此,应优化创新生态系统,建立更加完善的政府补贴机制,完善要素市场,充分发挥要素市场对企业创新的驱动效应。     

城市公共支出效率测算及层次性研究——基于随机前沿模型

运用随机前沿生产函数模型,根据2008年数据,对中国大陆273个地级及以上城市政府的公共支出效率进行测算,并对影响因素进行分析。研究表明:城市政府公共支出效率总体上不是很高,辖区面积、城市富裕程度是效率提高的不利因素,辖区人口、财政分权、城市领导者能力是效率提高的有利因素,区位条件对效率的影响不显著。城市公共支出效率呈现出层次性特征,直辖市、省会城市、副省级城市以及各省的主要中心城市效率较高,大多数地级城市效率较低。     

Nanomarketing: A New Frontier for Neuromarketing

The emergence of neuromarketing has significantly advanced conventional marketing research, illuminating how unconscious responses and emotions impact consumers’ perceptions and decision‐making processes. Neuromarketing is founded on the assumption that individual sensory and motor systems can be identified in specific networks of brain cells, the observation of which can reveal the unconscious or emotional characteristics of consumer decision making. Yet, neuromarketing technologies present several limitations that can impede the extension and validation of their application: (i) the development of high‐priced and time‐restricted neuroimaging experiments; (ii) the employment of large and immovable devices confined to artificial laboratory environments; (iii) the use of a single neuroimaging technology at a time (usually the functional magnetic resonance imaging); (iv) the use of a single nonneuroimaging device at a time; and (v) the potentially unethical manipulation of research subjects. One way to address these issues involves nanotechnologies, which present a ground‐breaking opportunity for neuromarketing research. These technologies encompass not only the traditional notion of structures, devices, and systems created by limiting shape and size at the nanometer scale, but also the new miniaturized tools based on one or more nanocomponents. The integration of neuromarketing and nanotechnologies could start a new field of research, which is termed here nanomarketing. Nanomarketing makes it possible to: (i) carry out noninvasive and nonintrusive experiments in shopping places; (ii) monitor consumers’ mental processes in real time; (iii) combine different technologies to corroborate results obtained by different neuroscientific tools; (iv) integrate neurophysiological field indicators with laboratory neuroimaging results; and (v) highlight ethical issues raised by the use of these novel, portable, and easy‐to‐use nanodevices. This study thus has a twofold aim: (i) investigating both the limitations and opportunities, for researchers and practitioners, that accompany the miniaturization process and application of nanotechnologies to neuromarketing; and (ii) providing a critical review of the aforementioned limitations, highlighting the theoretical and managerial implications, and summarizing the discussion for future research.     

财富管理 ——以商业银行私人银行业务为例

改革开放以来,中国经济迅猛发展,社会财富不断积累,并且高净值人群的比例不断提升,高净值人群对财富管理的需求也不断增强,这无疑给中国的金融机构巨大的发展机会。传统的商业银行必须解决自身的发展战略转型问题,这关乎其能否获取市场份额,否则将会逐渐被市场抛弃,并且渐渐的失去自己原有的市场。在此严峻的形势下,商业银行应该结合高净值人群,制定相应的转型战略,中国商业银行的私人银行业务应运而生。高净值客户群的需求分析为基础,探讨私人银行业务在国内发展的机遇与创新。     

A Stochastic Production Frontier Estimator of the Degree of Oligopsony Power in the U.S. Cattle Industry

The objective of this study is to estimate the degree of oligopsony power in the U.S. cattle industry with the use of the recently developed stochastic frontier estimator of market power. Unlike the seminal paper where estimation of the mark-up in an output market at firm level was the main objective, this work proposes a stochastic production frontier estimator in order to estimate the mark-down in an input market at aggregate level. Furthermore, with the help of the new estimator we derive and estimate the Lerner index of oligospony power for the U.S. cattle market. For the empirical part of the study we employed annual time series data from the U.S. cattle/beef industry for the time period 1970-2009. Our results suggest that beef packers exert market power when purchasing live cattle for slaughter.