Tourism industry reaction to climate change in Kgalagadi South District,Botswana

Climate change and adaptation have become major issues in contemporary tourism development and policy discussions, especially in southern Africa where the tourism industry is largely based on the natural environment and wildlife. Previous studies on tourism and climate change have mainly focused on the global north and snow-based winter tourism activities. This study aimed to fill the gap by examining tourism operators' perceptions of climate change in Kgalagadi South District, southwest Botswana, and looking at their adaptation strategies, if any. It was found that these operators were aware of the general impacts of climate change but most saw no impacts on the tourism industry and none recognised any impacts on their own operations. Most did, however, envisage challenges to future business growth and Botswana's tourism competitiveness. The perception that climate change did not currently have any impacts may explain why there were almost no adaptation strategies in place.     

摩托车保险杠振动分析与优化设计

作为摩托车重要的被动安全装置，保险杠对降低车辆在低速碰撞事故中的损失和保护骑行人员的安全有着重要作用，是车辆安全行驶的重要保障。为了解决某摩托车保险杠行驶过程中的振动剧烈问题，采用测试分析和计算机辅助工程相结合的方法，分析保险杠振动较大的主要原因是其1阶模态频率为94 Hz，该阶模态频率与发动机激励频率相耦合，发生共振。针对此问题，依据分析结果有针对性地提出对摩托车保险杠的优化方案为提高保险杠的连接刚度。利用振动测试试验对优化方案的科学性进行试验验证。结果表明，优化后保险杠的共振特征被消除，振幅下降达60%~70%，优化方案经济合理、科学有效，显著提高了摩托车保险杠的振动舒适性。研究结果可为摩托车保险杠的振动控制与结构优化提供工程决策依据。     

The effect of the repeal of helmet use laws on motorcycle fatalities

Conclusion As motorcycles have become more popular over the last two decades, motorcycle related deaths have risen. Methods to reduce fatalities have originated in both the private and public sector. The most ambitious of the public sector attempts to promote safety were the helmet use laws. The empirical results of this study indicate a significant relationship between the lack of a helmet use law and an increase in the fatality rate. Although a rider may ride more carefully when not wearing a helmet, this study indicates that this care is offset by the lack of crash protection provided by a helmet. Thus, at least for the years 1976–1979, one cannot reject the hypothesis that motorcycle helmet use laws have saved lives.     

基于模糊综合评价的景区飞拉达项目安全分析

为了研究大理某景区飞拉达项目的安全性,在景区现场勘察基础上,采用层次分析和模糊综合评价,对飞拉达项目设施设备、应急救援设施、公用工程、配套设施和安全管理等方面进行安全评价.通过对飞拉达项目研究分析,建立包括设备、人员、管理和环境4个因素的子系统及16个下属指标的评价体系.通过专家打分法对指标的等级进行模糊评价,计算隶属度,确定风险等级.结果表明,景区飞拉达项目风险评价值F=59.4,安全等级为一般,偏向较安全,需对飞拉达项目进行改进,加强管理.研究结果可为景区飞拉达项目安全管理提供参考.     

基于攀爬机器人技术的电力铁塔攀爬辅助装置设计

输电线路的日常巡查和维护检修是保障电力传输系统安全稳定的前提。目前,输电线路的巡检和维护工作仍然采用工作人员背带滑车与绝缘绳上塔的方式实现。传统的防坠装置并不能很好地配合工作人员上塔工作,工作人员在上塔过程中经常会遇到防坠装置卡住的情况,需要作业人员手动调节后才能继续上塔,增加了作业人员工作的劳动强度与危险性,导致了很多作业人员不愿使用防坠装置上塔。针对上述问题,设计一种电力巡检登塔作业时使用的辅助机器人,该装置与作业人员身上系挂的安全绳相连,机器人始终自动运行于作业人员上方,自动控制距离进行安全保护,同时,还具有辅助人员携带作业工器具的功能。     

Longitudinal rank tests for detecting location shift in the distribution of abnormal returns: An extension*

Abstract. We extend Chandra and Rohrbach (1990) to explain how to develop a longitudinal rank test (r-test) analogous to any t-test used in the event study literature. We compare all analogous pairs using market model residuals. The r-test is more powerful than the t-test in each pair. This suggests that if the researcher intends to use any t-test then, for more power, the comparable test should be preferred. These results should be useful to the researcher in selecting an r-test for event study because now the same flexibility of choosing an r-test as a t-test is available. Résumé. Les auteurs poussent plus loin les travaux de Chandra et Rohrbach (1990) pour expliquer comment mettre au point un test de rangs logitudinaux (test r) analogue aux différents tests t utilisés dans les ouvrages portant sur l'étude d'événements. Ils comparent toutes les paires analogues en utilisant les résiduels des modèles de marché. Le test r est plus puissant que le test t dans chacune des paires, de sorte qu'on peut penser que si le chercheur prévoit utiliser un test t pour sa puissance, il aurait avantage à recourir au test r comparable. Ces résultats devraient être utiles aux chercheurs dans la sélection d'un test r pour l'étude d'événements puisque, dorénavant, le choix d'un test r peut offrir la même souplesse que celui d'un test t     

Nonprofit/for-profit status and earning differentials in the Japanese at-home elderly care industry: Evidence from micro-level data on home helpers and staff nurses

In April 2000, Japan embarked on a reform of its health care market. Along with the introduction of a long-term care insurance scheme, the government for the first time allowed for-profit operators to compete head-on with non-profit operators in the provision of at-home care services. Taking advantage of a unique and rich micro-level survey, this study is the first to examine wage differentials between the nonprofit and the for-profit sectors in Japan's nursing care industry, concentrating on home helpers and staff nurses. Controlling for nonrandom unobserved selection biases, our results show that a nonprofit wage premium exists. This finding supports the hypothesis that nonprofit providers operate under non-distributional constraints. J. Japanese Int. Economies 21 (1) (2007) 106–120.     

Cointegration Tests of Purchasing Power Parity: the Case of the Thai Baht*

This paper will examine the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for the Thai baht vis-à-vis the currencies of Thailand's key trading partners under the new exchange rate regime using the cointegration technique. The major conclusions obtained from this empirical analysis may be broadly summarized as follows. First, the empirical evidence, based on the DF and ADF statistics, seems to suggest that the nominal exchange rates and relative prices are well characterized as non-stationary I(1) processes. Second, the cointegration analysis provides no evidence in support of a long-run equilibrium relationship between bilateral nominal exchange rates for the Thai baht vis-à-vis the currencies of Thailand's major trading partners and the corresponding relative price ratios. This implies rejection of PPP for these countries. If this is the case, considerable care should be taken in assessing the long-run implications for the real exchange rate, and thus competitiveness against Thailand's key trading partners, of shocks to the nominal exchange rate.     

Measuring impact and contributions of South African universities in communities: The case of the North-West University

Using the North-West University (NWU) as a case study, this article argues for and demonstrates the value of empirically assessing the impact of universities on their communities. A cross-sectional survey design (n?=?984) was used to investigate the NWUs impact on three different communities, as well as to empirically assess the needs of these communities. Results suggest that community-based projects and services, work-integrated learning activities, and, to a lesser extent, the quantity and quality of a university's graduate students, as well as initiatives such as science and engineering weeks, open days, sports weeks, and botanical gardens likely represent the most powerful and viable avenues for universities to achieve impact in their communities, especially when such endeavours are specifically tailored to community needs. The findings also suggest that universities’ outputs do not necessarily equate with or guarantee impact, and that impact is optimised when outreach activities are based on the actual needs of communities.     

Foreign Currency Exposure of Multinational Firms: Accounting Measures and Market Valuation*

Abstract. The accounting method in Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) No. 8 for restatement of a foreign operation's financial statements denominated in a foreign currency into the parent's currency equivalents for inclusion in the parent company's financial statements was severely criticized by market participants and managers. Its replacement, SFAS No. 52, represented an attempt to improve on the methods of SFAS No. 8. This study examines two questions: did SFAS No. 8 produce relevant information for valuing US multinational firms, and are the results reported under SFAS No. 52 more valuation relevant than those reported under SFAS No. 8? Valuation relevance is studied because the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) has stated that relevance is an important criterion for choosing among alternative accounting methods. Considered collectively, the results suggest that the rules in SFAS No. 8 produced a poor accounting measure for valuing US multinational firms, and that the introduction of SFAS No. 52 has resulted in a significant improvement in the valuation relevance of the accounting numbers associated with the restatement of a foreign operation's financial statements. However, this improvement applies only to the subset of firms that designated a foreign currency as their functional currency (i.e., switched to the current-rate method) and not to firms that designated the dollar as their functional currency (i.e., as if they still reported under SFAS No. 8).     

智慧养老服务平台用户采纳意愿及影响因素探究——基于武汉社区居民的调查

基于整合性科技接纳模型（UTAUT），探讨居家老人对智慧养老平台的采纳意愿及影响因素，设计问卷进行调查，采用SPSS及AMOS等统计软件进行结构方程建模。结果显示,绩效期待、努力期望、社群感知、配合程度对老人平台的采纳意愿均存在显著作用，采纳意愿会显著激发采纳行为。结论认为,智慧养老平台要通过多渠道的社会推广改善老年人的平台认知。平台运营者应充分联合社区、商家及家庭形成智慧养老服务氛围。同时从老人的具体需求出发推荐有针对性的服务，促进老人对平台使用价值的认同，从而改善老人的采纳意愿。     

Factor endowments on the ‘frontier’: Algerian settler agriculture at the beginning of the 1900s

This article examines rural settlement in Constantine, a département in French Algeria, at the beginning of the 1900s. By taking into account the timing of colonial settlement for almost 100 municipalities, it shows how the changing geographical conditions and the relative quantities of land and labour shaped the colonial land policy and settler modes of production. As fertile land grew scarcer on the settlement ‘frontier’, the ability of settlers to participate in the export market was increasingly dependent on the capacity to make use of modern agricultural techniques that required larger fields and intensive labour. Thus, the outcome of rural settlement was determined by the relative abundance of indigenous labour and the adaptation of the land policy to Algeria's agricultural needs. The results demonstrate that—even within a country itself and during the settlement process—the colonial land policy and settler modes of production change significantly, depending on the region being occupied.     

Accounting as a discipline for study and practice: 1986*

Abstract. The long search for accounting principles has tended historically to be practice-and standards-oriented. It is the author's contention that accountants might do better to think of themselves first and foremost as being involved in an intellectual discipline. Concern should be with subject matter, the nature of theory employed to handle problems dealing with that subject matter, and the methodology to be employed in verifying that theory. What has been put forward as a revolution in accounting thought in recent years may in this context come out as something more evolutionary in nature. We have: (1) useful extensions in subject matter — Information Economics and Agency Theory in particular; and (2) a sometimes healthy emphasis on and sometimes unhealthy obsession with empiricism in both macro (security market) and micro (choice decision) research. In fact, concern with both positive and normative questions, and employment of both logic and empiricism in our thinking, are essential in the study and practice of our discipline. The best of new thinking would seem to be complementary with, rather than a substitute for the best of what has gone on before. Résumé. La longue quête de «principes comptables» a été orientée historiquement vers la pratique et les normes. De l'avis de l'auteur, les comptables feraient mieux de se considérer comme ?uvrant tout d'abord au sein d'une discipline intellectuelle. L'intérêt devrait porter sur le sujet, la nature de la théorie utilisée afin de prendre en charge les problèmes reliés audit sujet, et la méthodologie à être utilisée dans la vérification de cette théorie. Ce qui a été avancé dans les dernières années comme une révolution de la pensée comptable pourrait donner lieu dans ce contexte à quelque chose d'une nature plus évolutionniste. Nous possédons (1) des prolongements utiles dans le sujet — particulièrement l'économique de l'information et la théorie mandant-mandataire; et (2) parfois une saine importance et à l'occasion une obsession malsaine de l'empirisme, accordées à la fois aux recherches de type macro (marchés financiers) et micro (décisions et choix des individus). De fait, le souci pour à la fois des questions positives et normatives, et l'utilisation dans notre réflexion à la fois de logique et d'empirisme, sont essentiels à l'étude et à la pratique de notre discipline. Les meilleurs aspects de la nouvelle pensée devraient être un complément plutôt qu'un substitut aux meilleurs aspects de l'approche antérieure.     

Context-Dependence of Auditors' Interpretations of the SFAS No. 5 Probability Expressions*

Abstract. Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) No. 5 requires accrual of contingent losses which are deemed probable. This disclosure criterion is intended to be applied uniformly across a variety of contexts. We performed an experiment which examined whether audit managers' interpretations of the SFAS No. 5 probability expressions are influenced by one contextual feature, event base rate. Counter to the intention of the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), interpretations of the expression probable were positively associated with event base rate. Résumé. Le SFAS n^o 5 exige l'imputation à l'exercice des pertes éventuelles qui sont jugées «probables». La règle ainsi établie veut que ce critère de présentation d'information soit appliqué uniformément dans des contextes très divers. Les auteurs procèdent à une expérience dans le cadre de laquelle ils examinent si la façon dont les responsables de mission interprètent la gamme de probabilités, au sens du SFAS n^o 5, est influencée par une caractéristique contextuelle, la fréquence relative de l'événement. Contrairement au résultat visé par le FASB, les interprétations du terme «probable» sont en relation positive avec la fréquence relative de l'événement.     

An Application of the Boostrap Method to the Simultaneous Equations Model of the Demand and Supply of Audit Services*

This paper extends the application of the bootstrap method in accounting research to a simultaneous equations model of the demand and supply of audit services with mixed qualitative and continuous dependent variables. A moderately sized sample of 118 quality control reviews (Copley, Doucet, and Gaver 1994) is used to demonstrate the bootstrap method and compare results to estimates of standard errors obtained from Amemiya's 1978 asymptotic generalized least squares (GLS) procedure. We find that the GLS t-statistics are inflated by as much as 55 percent and the corresponding p-values are likewise overstated when compared to the bootstrap results. The problem is more acute with the qualitative dependent variable for audit quality, which is often the key variable of interest.     

Service delivery frameworks as instruments of citizen empowerment: A tale of two experiences,India and South Africa

This paper presents a comparative assessment of South Africa and India's service delivery improvement strategies, challenges, successes and lessons learnt in advancing their service delivery reform programmes. The cardinal argument in the paper is that the public administrative systems adopted and inherited in the post-democratic epochs in India and South Africa were incapable of meeting the service delivery needs of their respective citizens. They epitomised the traditional and hierarchical public administrative systems that were the object of reforms in the 1990s. The reform initiatives also coincided with global reforms on public administration systems taking place under the aegis of the new public management framework. A key feature of new public management is its application of private-sector ideas to the public sector, such as individual accountability. The paper further undertakes a comparative review of service delivery improvement frameworks of South Africa (Batho Pele) and India (Sevottam) in relation to their objectives and implementation modalities.     

Can Consumer Attitudes Forecast Household Spending in the United States? Further Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers

This article examines the usefulness of various measures of consumer confidence in forecasting household spending in the United States. Using the reduced-form equation of Carroll, Fuhrer, and Wilcox (American Economic Review 84:1397-1408, 1994), we find that for the post-World War II period, the Index of Consumer Expectations is incrementally more informative about household spending than the Index of Consumer Sentiment for all categories of consumption examined. A similar conclusion emerges when Carroll, Fuhrer, and Wilcox's data set is used. Our overall results confirm the view that indices of consumer confidence reflect consumers' perception of future economic conditions. Also, the ability of these confidence indices to predict future consumption growth can be construed as a clear rejection of the random walk hypothesis of Hall (Journal of Political Economy 86:971-87, 1978).     

Incentive Contract Design and Employee-Initiated Innovation: Evidence from the Field*

This study examines how the design of incentive contracts for tasks defined as workers' official responsibilities (i.e., standard tasks) influences workers' propensity to engage in employee-initiated innovation (EII). EII corresponds to innovation activities that are not formally assigned to workers but are nonetheless encouraged and considered to be important for the company's success. Like other extra-role behaviors, EII is difficult to incentivize directly. Therefore, it is important to understand whether and how explicit incentive contracts designed for the workers' standard tasks may indirectly influence their EII activity. We use field data from a manufacturing company that uses a dedicated information system to track workers' EII idea submissions. We find theory-consistent evidence that, compared to workers receiving fixed pay, employees rewarded for their standard tasks with variable compensation contracts exhibit a lower propensity to engage in EII. This result is concentrated among ideas benefiting other constituents and activities beyond the proponents' standard task (i.e., broad-scope ideas). In contrast, we find no difference attributable to standard task incentive design in the proposal of innovation ideas narrowly focused on the proponent's standard task (i.e., narrow-scope ideas). Our findings suggest that variable pay narrows employees' conceptual focus around the standard task and hinders employee engagement in broad-scope innovation activities compared to fixed compensation contracts. We contribute to the literature on incentives for innovation by showing that standard task compensation contracts have spillover effects on EII behavior. We also contribute to the nascent literature on EII by showing that innovation types, defined based on their relation with the proponent's standard task, matter. Our results are relevant for practitioners in that managers relying on variable pay contracts to incentivize standard task performance should expect lower employee engagement in broad-scope EII.     

Informal retailing through home-based micro-enterprises: The role of spaza shops

The informal trade sector constitutes an important part of the South African economy, with estimated sales of R32 billion in 2002. Its emergence is largely attributed to the divergence between the growth in population, especially the urban population, and employment growth in the formal economy. Growth of informal enterprises, especially in the retail sector, is also thriving on the demand of less affluent households, whose household needs for unsophisticated and affordable products are aptly supplied by the informal sector. The aim of this article is to focus on one of the prominent sub-sectors of informal retailing, namely spaza or tuck shops, defined as small retail businesses which operate from a residential stand or home. Particular attention is paid to the size, role and characteristics of spaza trade in South Africa, which is estimated to account for nearly 3 per cent of South Africa's retail trade.     

A Re-Examination of Financial Analysts' Differential Earnings Forecast Accuracy*

Abstract. This research re-examines whether there are differences in the forecast accuracy of financial analysts through a comparison of their annual earnings per share forecasts. The comparison of analyst forecast accuracy is made on both an ex post (within sample) and an ex ante (out of sample) basis. Early examinations of this issue by Richards (1976), Brown and Rozeff (1980), O'Brien (1987), Coggin and Hunter (1989), O'Brien (1990), and Butler and Lang (1991) were ex post and suggest the absence of analysts who can provide relatively more accurate forecasts over multiple years. Contrary to the results of prior research and consistent with the belief in the popular press, we document that differences do exist in financial analysts' ex post forecast accuracy. We show that the previous studies failed to find differences in forecast accuracy due to inadequate (or no) control for differences in the recency of forecasts issued by the analysts. It has been well documented in the literature that forecast recency is positively related to forecast accuracy (Crichfield, Dyckman, and Lakonishok 1978; O'Brien 1988; Brown 1991). Thus, failure to control for forecast recency may reduce the power of tests, making it difficult to reject the null hypothesis of no differences in forecast accuracy even if they do exist. In our analysis, we control for the differences in recency of analysts' forecasts using two different approaches. First, we use an estimated generalized least squares estimation procedure that captures the recency-induced effects in the residuals of the model. Second, we use a matched-pair design whereby we measure the relative forecast accuracy of an analyst by comparing his/her forecast error to the forecast error of another randomly selected analyst making forecasts for the same firm in the same year on or around the same date. Using both approaches, we find that differential forecast accuracy does exist amongst analysts, especially in samples with minimum forecast horizons of five and 60 trading days. We show that these differences are not attributable to differences in the forecast issuance frequency of the financial analysts. In sum, after controlling for firm, year, forecast recency, and forecast issuance frequency of individual analysts, the analyst effect persists. To validate our findings, we examine whether the differences in the forecast accuracy of financial analysts persist in holdout periods. Analysts were assigned a “superior” (“inferior”) status for a firm-year in the estimation sample using percentile rankings on the distribution of absolute forecast errors for that firm-year. We use estimation samples of one- to four-year duration, and consider two different definitions of analyst forecast superiority. Analysts were classified as firm-specific “superior” if they maintained a “superior” status in every year of the estimation sample. Furthermore, they were classified as industry-specific “superior” if they were deemed firm-specific “superior” with respect to at least two firms and firm-specific “inferior” with respect to no firm in that industry. Using either definition, we find that analysts classified as “superior” in estimation samples generally remain superior in holdout periods. In contrast, we find that analysts identified as “inferior” in estimation samples do not remain inferior in holdout periods. Our results suggest that some analysts' earnings forecasts should be weighted higher than others when formulating composite earnings expectations. This suggestion is predicated on the assumption that capital markets distinguish between analysts who are ex ante superior, and that they utilize this information when formulating stock prices. Our study provides an ex ante framework for identifying those analysts who appear to be superior. When constructing weighted forecasts, a one-year estimation period should be used because we obtain the strongest results of persistence in this case.