Immigration and Unemployment*

The wisdom of maintaining high levels of immigration into Australia has been questioned, particularly on the grounds that migration contributes to aggregate unemployment. This paper uses both statistical causality techniques and conventional structural models to investigate the relationship between immigration and unemployment in the post-war period in Australia. The tests find no evidence of any association from migration to unemployment, though there is strong evidence of a significant effect of Australian unemployment on migration. The results indicate that immigration policy should not be dictated by unfounded fears of immigration causing unemployment, at least over the range of previous Australian experience.     

Heaven's Swing Door: Endogenous Skills,Migration Networks,and the Effectiveness of Quality‐Selective Immigration Policies

A growing number of OECD countries are leaning toward the adoption of selective immigration policies, which are expected to raise the quality (or education level) of migrants. This view neglects two important dynamic effects: the role of migration networks, which could reduce the quality of migrants, and the responsiveness of education decisions to the prospect of migration. We propose a model of self‐selection into migration with endogenous education choices, which predicts that migration networks and the quality of migrants can be positively associated when destination countries adopt sufficiently selective immigration policies. Empirical evidence, presented as background motivation, suggests that this is indeed the case.     

The export effect of immigration into the USA

Much has been written on the connection between migration and international trade. Human history provides important examples of migrations leading to increased trade activity, with perhaps the most well-known example of the ‘Overseas Chinese’. This study investigates the trade-related importance of Chinese and other immigrants into the USA. Previous studies may have underestimated (or overestimated) the relationship between trade and migration with nations treated as featureless plains rather than as varied landscapes. This study contends that an understanding of the immigration–trade relationship can be improved upon by examining the specific pattern and destination of immigration into specific US states. Using state level export data to 28 immigrant source countries in 1993, a strong immigration–trade link is found, reinforcing conclusions made by previous research using country level data. The compelling connection between immigration and trade found in this study and others suggests that future changes to US immigration policies necessitate that their trade effects also be taken into account.     

THE NON‐TRADED SECTOR,LOBBYING, AND THE CHOICE BETWEEN THE CUSTOMS UNION AND THE COMMON MARKET

This paper models immigration policy as the outcome of political competition between interest groups representing individuals employed in different sectors. In standard positive theory, restrictive immigration policy results from a low‐skilled median voter voting against predominantly low‐skilled immigration. In the present paper, in contrast, once trade policies are liberalized, restrictive immigration policy results from anti‐immigration lobbying by interest groups representing the non‐traded sectors. It is shown that this is in line with empirical regularities from recent episodes of restrictive immigration legislation in the European Union. It is further shown that if governments negotiate bilaterally over trade and migration policy regimes, the equilibrium regime depends (i) on the sequencing of the international negotiation process and (ii) on the set of available trade and migration policy regimes. In particular, the most comprehensive and most welfare‐beneficial type of liberalization may be rejected only because a less comprehensive type of liberalization is available.     

Does immigration crowd out foreign direct investment inflows? Tradeoff between contemporaneous FDI-immigration substitution and ethnic network externalities

This study examines the dynamic interactions between immigration and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) using bilateral data on these indicators between Japan and each of the 29 countries/economies of origin for both FDI and immigrants into Japan during 1996–2011. Although literature shows a positive FDI–migration relationship, I distinguish between short- and long-term effects of immigration, and show a contemporaneous negative relationship between FDI and immigration. The results show that immigration flows discourage FDI inflows (FDI–migration substitution), although larger immigration stocks induce FDI inflows (ethnic network externalities). Therefore, total effects need to be evaluated considering a tradeoff between contemporaneous substitution and the longer-term complementarity from network effects. While inward FDI promotion and immigration enhancement are often suggested as solutions to resolving shortages in domestic savings and labor, our results have implications for addressing the increasingly daunting policy issue of population aging.     

Auctioning Immigration Visas

Freeman (2006 ) suggested that auctioning immigration visas and redistributing the revenue to native residents in the host country would increase migration from low-income to high-income countries. The effect of the auctioning of immigration visas, in the Ricardian model from Findlay (1982 ), on the optimal level of immigration for the host country is considered. It is shown that auctioning immigration visas will lead to a positive level of immigration only if the initial wage difference between the host country and the source country is substantial. The cost of the immigration visa is more than half the earnings of the immigrant worker.     

Selection and network effects—Migration flows into OECD countries 1990-2000

This paper presents empirical evidence on immigration flows into the OECD countries during the period 1990-2000. Our results indicate that network effects are strong, but vary between different groups of welfare states and between countries according to the type of immigration policy being applied. Network effects seem to be less important in the Nordic countries which also seem to attract immigrants from the lowest income level source countries. We do not find clear evidence that selection effects measured by migration flows being sensitive to differences in public social expenditures have had a major influence on the observed migration patterns until now. This may partly be explained by restrictive migration policies which may have dampened the potential selection effects.     

Immigration Policy and Self‐Selecting Migrants

I build a simple model of self‐selection into migration and immigration policy determination. I first show that the effect of any immigration policy can be decomposed into a size and a composition effect. I then explore how the optimal policy may change once the latter effect is considered.     

IMMIGRATION UNEMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIP: THE EVIDENCE FROM CANADA*

This paper examines the relationship between unemployment and immigration in Canada. The bi‐directional causality test finds no evidence of a significant effect of Canadian immigration on unemployment. Cointegration tests indicate that there is no observed increase in aggregate unemployment due to immigration in the long run. The results from the causality test based on the vector error correction model confirm that, in the short run, past unemployment does cause (less) immigration but not vice versa. There is also a long‐run positive relationship among per‐capita GDP, immigration rate and real wages. The results indicate that, in the short‐run, more immigration is possibly associated with attractive Canadian immigration policies, and in the long‐run, as the labour market adjusts, Canadian‐born workers are likely to benefit from increased migration.     

Immigration and the Italian labour market: a contradiction

The role of immigration in the evolution of the labor force in Italy is analyzed. The author notes that not only is there a growing number of foreign immigrants, but return migration of natives to Italy is greater than Italian emigration. It is also noted that neither Italian migration policy nor the statistical system have evolved to cope with these new conditions. The high level of illegal immigration is also described, and the author concludes that such immigrants either find work in positions Italians no longer wish to fill, or in the black, or illegal, economy.     

中国省际人口迁移流场及其空间差异

社会经济的快速发展和区域发展不平衡的加剧引发了大规模的省际人口迁移。利用2005年1％人口抽样调查和2000年的10％人口普查数据,分析近10年来的中国省际人口迁移流场及其空间差异。研究发现,近10年来省际人口迁移规模逐步增加,以从四川、湖南、江西、河南和安徽等重要辐散区向东南沿海的长三角、珠三角和京津冀地区等沿海发达地区迁移为主,且有增强的趋势。长三角社会经济的快速发展使得区域迁入规模增加,迁入总量接近广东省,而广东省的迁入规模在大规模增加的同时,向周边省区迁出的人口规模也在大规模增加。     

Local Labor Supply Responses to Immigration

How natives adjust is central to an understanding of the impact of immigration in destination countries. Using detailed labor force data for Malaysia for 1990–2010, we provide estimates of native responses to immigration on multiple extensive margins and rare evidence for a developing country. Instrumental variable estimates show that increased immigration to a state causes substantial internal inward migration, consistent with the fact that immigration increases the demand for native workers. Relocating Malaysian workers are accompanied by their spouses (three‐quarters of whom are housewives) and children who attend school. We find that these effects are concentrated among middle‐ and lower‐skilled Malaysians.     

Selective Immigration Policies and Wages Inequality

We quantify the overall impact of immigration on native wages in France from 1990 to 2010. Our short‐run simulations indicate that immigration has decreased native wages by 0.6%. We find on average no impact of immigration on wages in the long run. However, we show that the long‐run effects of immigration on wages are detrimental to high‐skilled native workers and benefits to low‐skilled native workers. Our structural estimation allows us to evaluate the impact of “selective” migration policies. In particular, we find that selective immigration policies toward highly educated workers reduce the wage dispersion of French native workers.     

Migration outflows and optimal migration policy: rules versus discretion

We study the effects of more open borders on return migration and show that migrants are more likely to return to the origin country when migration rules are softened, because this implies that they could more easily re-migrate if return migration is unsuccessful. As a result, softening migration rules leads to lower net inflows than is generally acknowledged. We show that if government follows rules to shape the optimal migration policy, it will choose more open “borders” than were its behaviour to be discretionary. However, this requires an appropriate commitment technology. We show that electoral accountability may be a solution to the commitment problem. As a matter of fact, observed softer immigration rules in western countries suggest the effectiveness of such a mechanism.     

Migration and regional convergence in the European Union

We offer an empirical, econometric analysis of the impact of migration on the EU27’s NUTS2 regions in the period 2000–2007. We find that migration had no significant impact on regional unemployment in the EU, but affected both GDP per capita and productivity. A 1 percentage point increase in immigration to immigration regions increased GDP per capita by about 0.02?% and productivity by about 0.03?% on impact and by 0.44?% for GDP per capita and 0.20?% for productivity in the long run. For emigration regions an increase in the emigration rate leads to similar reductions of GDP per capita and productivity both on impact and in the long run. Since immigration regions are often regions with above average GDP, while emigration regions in Europe practically all have below average GDP, migration does not seem to promote convergence.     

Efficiency and distributional implications of global restrictions on labour mobility: calculations and policy implications

This paper sets forth a procedure for calculating the annual efficiency gains from alternative changes in existing international immigration restrictions and evaluates the impact of wage rate changes on nonmigrating labor. Data on US gross national product (GNP)/capita across countries are used to infer differences in the marginal productivity both between countries and across major world trading areas. The method assumes that the worldwide labor supply is fixed, that full employment occurs in all regions, and that differences in labor's marginal product across regions arise because of barriers to inward mobility of labor in high-wage countries. When these barriers are removed, labor is assumed to be reallocated and efficiency gains occur. Results of the calculations suggest large gains from the removal of global immigration controls which, in most cases, exceed existing worldwide GNP generated in the presence of labor mobility restrictions. A large portion of the gain is accounted for by labor migration between the aggregated rich and poor countries. Over 40% of the total potential gain is realized when only 10% of the wage differential is eliminated, suggesting that small changes in global migration restrictions have large marginal effects. Wage rates increase in labor-losing regions and decline in labor-receiving regions, dramatizing the incentives for labor unions in high-wage countries to oppose liberalization of immigration restrictions. These results suggest large potential worldwide efficiency gains from a move toward an international labor market free of immigration controls. This issue may be far more important to the North-South debate than a focus on initiatives such as commodity price stabilization, relaxation of trade protection, or increased aid flows.     

Disentangling the migration-trade nexus: the pro-trade effects of immigrants and emigrants in the presence of vertical and horizontal product differentiation

This paper presents an exploration of the migration-trade nexus taking the case of Italy by crossing the two dimensions of migration (immigration and emigration) and the two dimensions of intra-industry trade (vertical and horizontal). This empirical strategy proves useful in refining interpretation of econometric results. In general, we find that both immigration and emigration are positively and significantly related to intra-industry trade. However, the magnitude and the statistical significance of the impact of migration on trade vary, depending on the type of trade flows considered (vertical or horizontal), the direction of migration (immigration or emigration) and the partner countries considered (OECD or non-OECD). In particular, we find that immigrants from non-OECD countries have a positive and significant impact on both ‘variety trade’ and ‘quality trade’, while immigrants from OECD countries significantly affect ‘variety trade’ only. Emigrants to non-OECD countries have positive effect only on ‘variety trade’. These findings are largely consistent with predictions deriving from theoretical models of intra-industry trade and from the literature on migration-trade nexus.     

基于有序Logit模型的农村 人口自愿转移意愿研究——三峡生态屏障区的实证分析

研究人口自愿性转移的意愿及影响因素,有利于转移政策的制定与完善,实现人口转移目标。本文基于对三峡生态屏障区农村人口转移的实地调查,运用有序Logit模型,从家庭基本情况、家庭资本、家庭社会保障水平、对以往移民政策的了解程度和其他社会因素等五个方面对其转移意愿进行了分析,研究表明：年龄、家庭参加医疗保险人数、对三峡移民政策了解程度、是否为原三峡移民和现有居住环境及对环境满意度等因素对农村人口的转移意愿有显著性影响。     

The American frontier: Technology versus immigration

How important was international immigration for the US and its demography during the nineteenth century? This paper investigates, quantitatively, its effect on the westward movement of population and the regional and secular changes in fertility. Beside immigration, two alternative forces are considered: technological progress and the land policy (the Homestead Act). An optimal growth model with endogenous fertility and migration is calibrated, and counterfactual experiments reveal that the main driving forces were productivity growth and the declining cost of transportation. International immigration played a lesser role.     

Immigration policy and the U.S. economy: an institutional perspective

The author examines some aspects of the current situation concerning immigration to the United States. He predicts that the 1990s will witness the largest flow of immigrants into the population and labor force of any decade in the country's history; furthermore, since there is no universally accepted right to immigrate, the adoption of migration policy is one area of economic policymaking that is not controlled by market forces. He also notes that while the country's need is for a highly skilled, motivated, and educated labor force, the majority of current immigrants have low skill levels and relatively little education. The need to develop and implement a migration policy that is in tune with the country's economic objectives is stressed. He concludes that "the resurrection of mass immigration from out of the nation's distant past was a political accident; its perpetuation in the 1990s is contrary to national interest. Immigration reform, therefore, needs to be [in] the forefront of the nation's economic policy agenda."