Choices between different off-farm employment sub-categories: An empirical analysis for Jiangxi Province, China

This paper analyzes the relative importance of four sub-categories of off-farm employment, and the factors driving participation of individuals in these sub-categories for three villages in Jiangxi Province. We find that migration is the most important type of off-farm employment, while agricultural wage employment is a minor activity. Migrant remittances are smaller than household incomes earned from self-employment and local non-farm employment. The results of a multinomial probit analysis explaining off-farm participation decisions show that presence of young children in a household restrains participation in migration, while the presence of elderly persons and a higher level of education stimulate migration. Local wage employment and self-employment are not affected by these factors. The gender bias in access to off-farm employment is largest for agricultural employment and local non-agricultural employment. Land scarcity stimulates participation in migration and local non-agricultural employment, while possibilities to rent land out to other farmers stimulate only migration. The paper ends with policy suggestions for promoting off-farm employment within the own region and for altering the criteria for land distribution to rural households.     

Does off-farm employment contribute to agriculture-based environmental pollution? New insights from a village-level analysis in Jiangxi Province, China

This study examines the conventional wisdom that off-farm employment contributes to environmental pollution by increasing the use of agro-chemicals. In order to analyse the role of household decision making and village factor markets in more detail, we run simulations with a hybrid farm household/village computable general equilibrium model that is applied to a village in Northeast Jiangxi Province. We find that the negative lost-labour effect of off-farm employment on agricultural incomes is much stronger than the (small) positive income effect. As a result of reduced labour resources and increased leisure consumption, farm households reduce the intensity of rice cultivation as well as the production of (especially) cash crops. The shift in production activities is stronger for migration than for off-farm employment, because migrants cannot combine off-farm work with onfarm work, and because migration reduces the village market price of oxen services. The shift towards less intensive rice production means that off-farm employment (and migration in particular) reduces the levels of chemical inputs and manure used in agricultural production. The decline in fertilizer input is much larger than the decline in manure use, because manure is a nontradable commodity and is applied only once per year. We therefore conclude that migration and, to a lesser extent, local off-farm employment lead to lower incomes from agricultural production, but have benign effects on environmental quality.     

Land rental market, off-farm employment and agricultural production in Southeast China: A plot-level case study

This paper performs a plot-level analysis of the impact of land rental market participation and off-farm employment on land investment, input use, and rice yields for 215 plots cultivated by 52 households in three villages in Northeast Jiangxi Province. Our findings show that households that rent extra land are relatively more productive, but contradict results of earlier studies which found that tenure status of plots affects the level of land investments. We further find that off-farm employment does not significantly affect rice yields. This result contradicts those of earlier studies which found that the negative lost-labor effect of off-farm employment dominates the positive income effect. Another novel finding is that people working locally off-farm tend to switch from green manure planting towards the use of organic manure on their rice plots. We conclude that policies that will further stimulate the development of land rental markets, which is still in its infancy, can contribute significantly to higher rice production in Southeast China. Another implication of our results is that worries about the negative impact that the continuously growing off-farm employment may have on China's goal to remain self-sufficient in grain production are less relevant at the moment for the region examined in our study.     

The bittersweet fruits of industrialization in rural China: The cost of environment and the benefit from off-farm employment

While it is widely accepted that industrialization has brought both environmental pollution and economic growth in rural areas of China, very little is known about whether the negative effects of industrial pollution on rural residents have been proportionally offset by positive effects due to improvements in off-farm income. This paper improves our understanding of these tradeoffs by conducting an empirical analysis based on a set of nationwide panel data collected in 2008 and 2012 and covering five provinces, 101 villages, and 2020 households. Evidence is found to suggest that it is not always the case that rural households that are affected by pollution reap the off-farm employment benefits associated with industrialization. Specifically, although industrial pollution incidence is found to be positively related with the level of local off-farm employment, this relationship is statistically insignificant when migrant labor is included. It can be explained as areas that less economically benefited from industrialization tent to have more labors migrated out and the average annual wage income of one migrant labor is much higher than that of local off-farm labor.     

财政科教支出对就业及产业结构调整的影响——基于CGE模拟分析

在人口红利即将消失之际,我国就业问题呈现较为复杂的趋势。全球性的经济危机促使我国产业结构急需转型。在创新驱动、科教兴国战略和人才强国战略背景下,观察财政科教支出对就业及产业结构调整的影响具有重要意义。本文构建了一个在复杂现实背景下分析财政科教支出对就业及产业结构调整影响的CGE模型,模拟在人口城镇化过程中财政科教投入分步骤达到发达国家水平时各产业就业和增加值的变化。结果显示:财政科教支出对就业尤其是第三产业就业具有显著正向促进作用,对于住宿和餐饮等劳动密集型产业的影响尤其明显。科教支出有利于解决在城镇化过程中、人口红利期即将结束等现实条件下的就业问题。同时财政科技和教育投入对于促进产业结构转型具有推动作用,加速了向第三产业转型,使得我国的产业结构和就业结构更加合理。     

The polarization and constraints of scale farming in China under the impact of rising wages

For small-peasant economy countries in Asia, scale farming, characterized by land transfer, helps achieve scale economies and improve productivity. However, the scale farming development is hindered by the increasing farm labor cost because of the rising wages. Based on a panel dataset of 458 tenant farmers in Jilin, Jiangsu, and Sichuan provinces in China, we investigate heterogeneity in the impact of rising wages on tenant farmers’ farm size and machinery investment of different initial farm sizes. Additionally, we further analyze the different constraints they face in adapting to wage increases. Our results show the antithetical impact of rising wages on tenant farmers with different farm sizes. This results in the polarization of tenant farmers’ farm size in China. Meanwhile, tenant farmers face various constraints in the adjustment process of farm size and machinery investment. Specifically, large-scale tenant farmers increase their farm size and invest in agricultural machinery given the rising wages. The extent of this adjustment depends on farming seasons and their liquidity. In contrast, small-scale tenant farmers reduce their farm size and machinery investment. Their choices are limited by the availability of off-farm employment opportunities. Therefore, the government should consider the heterogeneity of tenant farmers and help mitigate the constraints they face to promote the development of scale farming.     

Testing the nexus between renewable energy consumption and environmental quality in Nigeria: The role of broad‐based financial development

This study investigates the nexus between renewable energy consumption and environmental quality in Nigeria, accounting for the role of financial development, and re‐examines the validity of the environmental Kuznet curve (EKC) hypothesis for Nigeria covering the period 1990 to 2016. To cover financial development more adequately, the current study uses the broad‐based financial development index constructed by the International Monetary Fund. The study employs second generation econometric approaches of Lee and Strazicich, and Bayer and Hanck combined cointegration tests to check for stationarity and cointegration among the variables, and then applies autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and vector error correction model (VECM) Granger causality tests to explore the effect and causal relationship respectively. The results divulge that renewable energy consumption improves environmental quality, while financial development hurts the environment. Further, the results validate an inverted U‐shaped association between economic growth and environmental degradation in Nigeria. The VECM Granger causality results indicate a long‐run effect of the independent variables on CO₂ emission, while the short‐run causality reveals a mixture of unidirectional and bidirectional causality among the variables. This study therefore recommends that policy makers consider the important roles of renewable energy and financial development in reforming energy policies to achieve environmental sustainability.     

The causes of Japan's ‘lost decade’: The role of household consumption

In this paper, I analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and find that the stagnation of investment, especially private fixed investment, was the primary culprit. I then investigate the causes of the stagnation of household consumption during the 1990s and find that the stagnation of household disposable income, the decline in household wealth, and increased uncertainty about the future are among the contributing factors. Finally, I consider whether demand side factors or supply side factors were more important as causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and conclude that the former (especially misguided government policies) were probably more important.     

The Determinants of Labour-time Allocation between Farm and Off-farm Work in Rural China: the Case of Liaoning Province

This article examines the determinants of the allocation process of labour time between farm and off-farm activities (OFAs) in north-east rural China during the late 1990s. The question is addressed by means of a dedicated fieldwork survey of 450 rural households in a clustering of nine villages in Xinmin County located in Liaoning Province. The econometric methodology consists of deploying a multinomial logit model to track the distribution of OFA employment opportunities. Our results reveal that market forces, rather than overt political connections, are assuming increasing significance, especially for those operating own-account enterprises (OAEs); that birthplace and location remain potent determinants of work destination and earnings capacity; and that being male and single motivates rural inhabitants to seek OFAs to a much greater extent than other household members. These findings have implications for those responsible for framing policy. In particular, a further round of liberalization to favour OFAs is suggested.     

The impact of technology shocks on the Japanese business cycle—An empirical analysis based on Japanese industry data

In order to investigate the impacts of technology shocks on the recent Japanese business cycles, we construct an aggregate technological measure from industry-based data. Our approach is to estimate production function by industry, by controlling for the returns to scale factor and unobserved factor utilization. We find that positive technology shocks result in a contraction of labor input on impact. This result implies that the standard real business cycle (RBC) model is not supported and the new Keynesian model or the labor reallocation model is a candidate to explain the Japanese business cycles. From further empirical studies, we find that the labor reallocation model is plausible for explaining the Japanese business cycles.     

数字普惠金融对中国农村居民消费的空间溢出效应

基于中国2013—2020年省级面板数据,采用空间计量模型进行实证研究。研究发现,数字普惠金融对农村居民消费有正向促进作用,并且具有显著的溢出效应,这其中存在区域异质性。因此,需要不断推进数字普惠金融高质量发展,各个地区之间要保持紧密的合作,因地制宜地发展数字普惠金融。     

“Fighting the Tide: Alternative Trade Organizations in the Era of Global Free Trade”—A Comment

LeClair [LeClair, M. S. (2002). Fighting the tide: alternative trade organizations in the era of global free trade. World Development, 30(6), 949–958] concludes that in theory Fair Trade is a second-best alternative to aid, may impose losses on non-Fair Trade producers and prolongs dependence on unsustainable modes of production. This paper shows how these conclusions depend upon a particular definition of subsidy and upon the assumptions of full employment and that Fair Trade goods face price-inelastic demand. An adverse impact on non-Fair Trade producers is possible but not intrinsic, and the claim of economic inefficiency cannot be sustained within a more general analysis.     

The Transformation of Collectively Owned Enterprises and its Outcomes in China, 2001–05

Previous studies have primarily focused on the relative success of collectively owned enterprises (COEs) in China during the early years of reform, but they have ignored the agency problems inherent in this type of organizational form that may be an obstacle to further improving performance in a changing environment. Drawing on agency theory and the privatization literature, we argue that the transformed COEs in the ongoing organizational transformation process may achieve better performance by reducing agency costs. We examine a sample of COEs in Chinese manufacturing industries and track their ownership statuses from 2000 to 2005. Our findings reveal that the transformed firms achieved better performance than the traditional, untransformed COEs by mitigating agency problems.     

河南省淘宝村生存现状、制约因素及发展路径研究

在互联网和电子商务快速发展的背景下,我国农村电子商务近年来迅速崛起,并催生上千个淘宝村。河南省在这一大潮中也涌现了50个淘宝村,数量居中西部省份之首,但与经济发达地区相比仍有巨大差距。首先分析河南省淘宝村发展特点,然后对河南省淘宝村发展的制约因素进行剖析,并在金字塔底层模型的基础上提出河南省淘宝村的发展路径,最后提出相关建议。     

我国消费、投资及净出口与经济增长研究--基于资源与环境的双重约束

基于我国1998-2010年的宏观经济数据,文章通过建立联立方程模型,对我国消费、投资及净出口与经济增长进行实证分析。结果表明：我国的经济增长与资源消耗之间存在着“倒U型”的非线性曲线关系;消费、投资及净出口增长对我国经济增长的拉动效应不同,其中居民消费的拉动效率最强;产业结构升级对资源消耗的抑制作用较为显著。     

Association Lecture—The Economic Roots of Political Underdevelopment in the Middle East: A Historical Perspective

Key institutions of the pre‐modern Middle Eastern economy, all grounded in Islamic law, blocked the development of democratic institutions. This talk identifies three mechanisms that played critical roles. Islam's original tax system failed to produce lasting and credible constraints on governance. The waqfs (Islamic trusts) founded to provide social services to designated constituencies were politically powerless. Profit‐making private enterprises remained small and ephemeral, hindering the formation of stable coalitions capable of bargaining with the state. The last two mechanisms jointly delayed the rise of a civil society able to provide the checks and balances essential to democratic rule.     

Sources of Growth and Structural Change in the Vietnamese Economy, 1996–2003: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis*

We use the MONASH‐VN model, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the Vietnamese economy, to investigate Vietnam's rapid growth and structural change over the period 1996 to 2003. We do this in two steps. First, we estimate changes in variables representing production technologies, consumer preferences, government policy and other structural features of the economy. Movements in these structural and policy variables are then used to explain the recent history of Vietnam's rapid growth and structural change. We find the most important sources of growth and change to be technical improvements, favorable shifts in foreign demand for Vietnamese goods and employment growth. Other important factors include movement in household preferences away from primary products and towards manufactures and services, expansion in agricultural land supply, and tax reform.