新思路:建立动态、良性的印花税调整变动机制

印花税率动态变动机制是主要根据市场行情所给定的正相关出函数关系,在一定的税率范围内围绕基准税率上下波动来实现,通过定期在一个较长时段内由专门委员会调整基准税率、在一个较短时期内公布执行的实际税率,使实际印花税成为动态、良性、可预期的税率,成为具有中国特色的新的重要调控政策工具,从而保障和促进我国证券市场和宏观经济的健康有序发展。     

证券交易印花税再探

证券交易印花税的高低,是当前中国证券市场争论非常激烈的一个问题.国内外研究显示,印花税调节在增加财政收入、维持市场稳定、公平赋税等方面并没有达到预期目的.证券交易印花税的作用被明显高估.必须对证券交易印花税进行改革,降低税率.拓宽税基.采取差别税率以体现政策导向,并适时开征证券交易资本利得税,以完善中国证券市场税收体系.     

企业印花税管理存在的问题及对策

印花税是对合同、营业许可证照等应税单据征收的一种税,由于其税率低、金额小,并未引起企业的重视,造成了管理上的漏洞。因此文章在阐述印花税基础理论的基础上分析了企业在印花税管理中存在的问题,并针对问题提出了解决对策,以期完善企业印花税管理。     

基于CGE模型的房地产税收政策效应分析

本文通过构建CGE模型来分析房地产税收对房地产市场波动效果,通过31个省市的近三年面板数据分析发现,土地增值税税率的升高,将会引起住宅交易量的减少,房地产企业所得税税率的提高,将促进住宅交易量的增加。     

现金红利与收益波动率——基于我国上市公司股利政策和公司价值的研究

本文从换手率角度考察了上市公司现金股利政策对公司价值的影响。文章认为,上市公司的现金股利政策会影响公司股票的换手率,进而影响公司股票的收益波动率。因而,在其他条件不变的情况下,不发放现金股利的公司的股票换手率会更高,其股票收益波动率会更高,风险更大。换言之,现金股利的发放会影响公司价值。     

证券交易印花税调整与股市波动性关系的统计分析

证券交易印花税针对股市制定,必然会对股市的波动性产生影响。文章通过统计检验的方法,对证券交易印花税调整与股市波动性之间的关系进行了实证分析,认为证券交易印花税的调整引起股市的波动的概率并不是非常大,但会增加股市波动性,且从目前看这种对波动性的影响,正趋于由中长期向中短期转变。     

浅谈对证券交易印花税制度的若干思考

对二级市场股票交易征收的印花税是我国证券市场中的主要税种,在众多政策工具中,印花税率是一种最有针对性的工具.自中国股票市场建立以来,印花税先后经历了数次调整,本文从实证的角度对证券交易印花税的性质和作用进行了分析,并对如何完善该税种提出了若干建议.     

期铜价格波动对股票换手率的影响研究——基于大宗商品金融化背景下的分析

大宗商品金融化背景下,铜作为国民经济发展的重要基础原料,其价格逐渐与股票市场相关联。本文实证研究了期铜价格波动对股票换手率的影响,结果表明:2005年前,期铜价格波动对股票换手率不具有可预测性;而2005年后,期铜价格波动对股票市场上铜产业链上、下游板块的换手率均有显著正向影响,且这种影响进一步传递到金属板块,最终对整个股票市场的换手率产生正向影响。这表明期铜价格波动对股票换手率的预测能力可由商品金融化解释。本文在实证分析基础上对规避大宗商品期货风险提出相应建议。     

对我国证券交易印花税调整的探讨

我国证券交易印花税经历了数次调整,现今正处于一个相对较高的水平。结合当前股市大盘整体异动的情势,适时适度对印花税作出单边征收和差异税率设定的调整是十分必要的。     

《印花税法》的变化及涉税风险防范

2022年7月，《中华人民共和国印花税法》正式施行，《印花税法》在税目、征收范围、纳税人、扣缴义务人、税率、计税依据、纳税地点和纳税期限等方面都进行了优化调整。在实务中，由于印花税属于小税种，部分纳税人没有给予足够重视，容易忽视《印花税法》的调整点，由此产生涉税风险。文章剖析了《印花税法》的变化，并对降低纳税人涉税风险提出了建议。     

证券交易税对市场波动性的影响:来自中国股市的证据

本文运用ARCH族模型检验了2001年股票交易印花税税率降低对沪、深股市波动性的影响,为有关证券交易税对市场波动性影响的讨论增添了一个来自新兴市场的证据。计量结果表明,该次税率变动对沪市波动性的影响在统计上是不显著的;深市的波动性在税率降低后虽然有统计上显著的增加,但是这个变化太小,没有实际意义。我们的研究结果表明,对于像中国股市这类市场结构和市场制度处于变化之中的新兴市场,如果试图通过调整证券交易税税率这类显性的交易成本来影响市场波动性,其效果是有限的。     

Influence of dividend tax policy tied to investment horizon on stock price stability: Evidence from the 2015 dividend tax reform in China

We examine how the dividend tax cut policy tied to the investment horizon enforced on September 8, 2015, influences stock price stability in China's A-share market. As the new dividend tax policy waives the tax on cash dividends for investors holding a stock for more than a year, it encourages long-term investment behavior. From 2013 to 2017, we find that stock turnover, return volatility, and turnover volatility decrease after the policy enforcement, especially for stocks with high dividend yields. This result shows that dividend tax reforms increase investors' stock investment horizons and help stabilize the market. However, our findings demonstrate that stock crash risk increases after policy enforcement. Further analysis shows that earnings management through real activities manipulation for stocks with a higher dividend yield contributes to an increase in stock crash risk. Therefore, one externality of the dividend tax cut policy tied to the investment horizon is that top managers of firms with a higher dividend yield may take advantage of investors' passive longer-term investment behavior and engage in more earnings management. This result suggests that regulatory agencies should pay attention to top managers' earnings management behavior after enacting policies that encourage long-term investment.     

我国货币政策调控对产出和通胀影响的水平效应和波动率效应研究——基于VAR模型和局部投影模型冲击反应函数的实证分析

在“三重压力”下，我国货币政策调控要实现“稳增长”和“防通胀”在水平值和波动率上的“双重稳定”,既要保持适度经济增速，又要防止通货膨胀快速上升，还要防止产出和通胀波动形成的经济风险。为此，文章使用了局部投影方法和VAR模型方法计算了数量型和价格型货币政策的冲击反应函数，以此刻画货币政策对产出增长率和通货膨胀率的水平值和波动率的动态效应。实证结果表明，数量型货币政策对经济增长率和通货膨胀率均具有水平值上的显著正向效应，同时具有降低产出波动而提升通胀波动的冲击效应；价格型货币政策也对经济增长率和通货膨胀率具有显著正向效应，同时具有降低产出波动率和通胀波动率的双重稳定功能。因此，当前货币政策操作仍然要以价格型货币政策为主，以此实现货币政策逆周期和跨周期调控功能。     

Exchange rate volatility and Japan–U.S. commodity trade: An asymmetry analysis

Exchange rate volatility is said to affect trade flows in either direction. When increased volatility is separated from decreased volatility, asymmetric analysis reveals even more support for the fact that both increased volatility and decreased volatility affect trade flows in either direction. We add to this new literature by considering 57 industries that trade between Japan and the US. In addition to providing evidence of asymmetric response of their trade flows to a measure of exchange rate volatility, our approach identifies industries that could benefit from increased exchange rate volatility and those that could be hurt. Similarly, we identify industries that could benefit from decreased volatility and those that could be hurt. The overall conclusion is the adverse effects of dollar–yen volatility on the trade between the two countries.     

The impacts of public news announcements on intraday implied volatility dynamics

We examine the responses of intraday option-implied volatilities to scheduled announcements of macroeconomic indicators. The increase in implied volatility around macroeconomic news announcements is more pronounced for puts than for calls and is stronger for announcements made during trading hours than for those made during nontrading hours. These effects are also more pronounced in the crisis and postcrisis periods than in the precrisis period. Monetary policy announcements have a more substantial impact on volatility than other announcements have, even after controlling for news surprise components. The impact appears to be greater for policy rate hikes than for policy rate cuts.     

Information content of the fed funds rates

This study shows that the Fed Funds spot rate mostly affects the level of key interest rates while the Fed Funds futures rate tends to affect both the level and the volatility. Such effects are more concentrated on the shorter segment of the yield curve. In addition, only an unexpected change in the target rate affects both the level and the volatility of interest rates. Finally, the FOMC's increased disclosure of its policy stance has a calming effect on the volatility of key interest rates. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:753–774, 2005     

Harvest contract price volatility for cotton

Changes in agricultural and international trade policy have increased attention to issues of price volatility and risk management. Previous work in the area of price volatility has typically focused on grains, with little work dealing with cotton. The objective of this analysis was to examine the determinants of price volatility for cotton, focusing on the growing season volatility of the harvest contract. Different econometric techniques, including ARCH/GARCH, were employed to estimate the effects of a set of variables on price volatility. The potential for a nonlinear relationship between price and volatility was examined. Findings suggest a significant seasonal pattern to volatility as well as a nonlinear relationship between price and volatility. The results also suggest that cotton price volatility has not significantly changed with respect to changes in agricultural policy. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 717–733, 1999     

The Fed's policy decisions and implied volatility

This study examines how the Fed's monetary policy decisions affect the implied volatility of the S&P 500 index. The results show that stock market uncertainty is significantly affected by the Fed's policy decisions. In particular, we find that implied volatility generally decreases after FOMC meetings, while the relationship between target rate surprises and market uncertainty appears positive. However, our results also suggest that the apparent positive relationship between policy surprises and implied volatility is mostly driven by the volatility‐reducing effects of negative surprises. We further document that implied volatility is affected by both scheduled and unscheduled policy actions, with the scheduled path surprises having the strongest impact on volatility. Finally, our findings indicate that the impact of monetary policy decisions on implied volatility is more pronounced during periods of expansive policy. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

告示效应：基于我国货币市场利率的实证研究

近年来,西方国家在货币政策操作中逐渐利用告示效应来实现其政策利率目标,在告示效应对经济变量施加影响的作用机制中,中央银行的信誉度、责任性及透明度状况起了重要作用;相比传统的公开市场操作,告示效应具有影响直接、效果明显和操作成本低的优点;基于此,我国有必要在货币政策操作中强化告示效应的影响机制,以建立一个更为简明有效的货币政策操作框架.     

Turnover and return in global stock markets

I study how growth affects liquidity of global stock exchanges and how liquidity determines cross-sectional returns on those stock exchange index portfolios. I measure portfolio liquidity by turnover ratio computed as value of shares traded over the market capitalization. I obtain data from FIBV, an association of global stock exchanges. In a multiple regression model for turnover ratio, I find age, size, type of exchange, competition for order flow, and growth rate to be significant determinants of portfolio liquidity; however, exchange- and time-specific effects are more appropriate for modeling portfolio liquidity. The time effects yield to three distinct regimes, while the exchange-specific effects are surrogates for the legal systems, English common law, and Civil laws of the countries. I estimate the parameters of a multiple regression model in a two-stage GLS framework in which index return is a function of turnover. The GLS method is preferable since a turnover ratio may have a non-stationary, random component. The significant determinants of index return are turnover and volatility, although some of the volatility effect may be a spillover from a January effect. Investors expect higher return from high turnover markets. However, the positive turnover expected return relation is true only in emerging markets; in developed markets expected return is a function of volatility. This result confirms existing empirical evidence that high turnover stock portfolios generate superior returns and further the sources and pricing of risk in emerging and developed markets are different.