A white-boxed ISSM approach to estimate uncertainty distributions of Walmart sales

We present our solution for the M5 Uncertainty competition. Our solution ranked sixth out of 909 submissions across all hierarchical levels and ranked first for prediction at the finest level of granularity (product-store sales, i.e. SKUs). The model combines a multi-stage state-space model and Monte Carlo simulations to generate the forecasting scenarios (trajectories). Observed sales are modelled with negative binomial distributions to represent discrete over-dispersed sales. Seasonal factors are handcrafted and modelled with linear coefficients that are calculated at the store-department level.     

Forecasting retail sales using alternative models

This paper explores the issues associated with adapting forecasting techniques used by manufacturers to produce accurate forecasts for retail sales. A case study is presented that is developed using a retail situation because retailers often view their sales forecasting problems as being very different from a manufacturer's problems. Sales volumes are dramatically impacted by competitor promotional actions, discounts, store promotions and weather. Finally, consumption holidays like Christmas, Easter, Mother's day, have a large impact on sales as well as back to school shopping. The findings in this paper indicate that forecasting retail sales can be accomplished with a high degree of accuracy.     

The sales response to advertising: A reconsideration

The paper surveys briefly the literature on the shape of the sales-advertising response relationship. Knowledge of this relationship is an important requirement for optimal marketing decisions. The role of theory is to specify the structure of models for testing. The paper presents a plausible model of this relationship based upon the consumer's response to advertising when qualitative uncertainty exists in a market. The relationship is seen to contain a ‘catastrophe change’ or discontinuity when certain assumptions are made about optimizing behaviour. The implications for marketing strategy and optimal levels of promotional outlays are discussed.     

Applying sales promotion competitions to nonprofit contexts

This paper discusses the applicability of sales promotions within not‐for‐profit (NFP) marketing, and argues that some of the widely held prejudices about sales promotions have acted to obscure their potential contribution to a range of NFP markets. Understanding this potential requires a clearer understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of specific sales promotion techniques. The paper presents frameworks for classifying both sales promotions and marketing contexts, which can help an understanding of which sales promotions might work in particular NFP contexts. The paper then focuses on a specific type of sales promotion, which represents a potentially valuable and versatile tool for NFP marketers, the sales promotion competition. It details the benefits that sales promotion competitions can offer NFP marketers, and also contributes some guidelines to aid in running them effectively. Copyright © 2003 Henry Stewart Publications     

The sales job and preparation for management

“The types of work that lead of the top jobs have ovious variations by industry with a few aberrations. There is, nonetheless, a consistent pattern: less law experience than generally supposed, not much engineering or research and among younger executives a lot of sales.”

1 Editors of Fortune Magazine, The Executive Life, Garden City, N.Y.: Doubleday, 1956, p. 31.

Is there something about sales that produces better mangers?     

The response of prices,sales, and output to temporary changes in demand

We determine empirically how automakers accommodate shocks to demand. Using data on production, sales, and transaction prices, we estimate a dynamic profit maximization model of the firm. We demonstrate that when an automaker is hit with a vehicle‐specific demand shock, sales respond immediately and prices respond very modestly. Further, when accounting for non‐convexities in the cost function, production responds with a delay. Over time, shocks are absorbed almost entirely through adjustments in sales and production rather than prices. We examine two recent demand shocks: the Ford Explorer/Firestone tire recall of 2000, and the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

以点带线思维方式在传统推销培训中的应用

推销在经济全球化的背景下日益广泛流行,并带动了推销培训市场的发展,传统的培训主要针对与客户面对面的销售技巧,往往忽视了客户背后潜在的巨额市场。文章主要阐述了以点带线思维方式在传统推销培训中的应用,即以拉网式深挖潜在市场,大幅提升业绩。     

The equivalence of supporting software delegation and sales delegation

This paper considers a duopoly market with horizontally differentiated system goods to examine system owners' behaviors under supporting software delegation, in which owners of system firms use varieties of supporting software, coupled with profit, to evaluate their managers' performance. Supporting software delegation seems to induce managers to act more aggressively in price competition than sales delegation does; however, we prove that if two systems are compatible and the varieties of supporting software are determined by hardware owners' overall expenditure amount on software, then supporting software delegation is equivalent to sales delegation. Owners of system firms induce their managers to act less aggressively in hardware price competition by offering contracts with a negative weight on varieties of supporting software under supporting software delegation. We find that stronger network externalities do not reverse system owners' contracting behaviors under supporting software delegation. Finally, it is worth mentioning that hardware technologies are static in this paper. In other words, dynamic changes such as hardware evolution are not considered in our analysis.     

The structure of british industry's sales in foreign markets

The structure of British industry's foreign sales is analysed by its principal components: exports, sales arising from licenses issued abroad and the output from facilities financed by British foreign direct investment. Total foreign sales are analysed by industry and by foreign market and differences in structure on both these dimensions are considerable. The literature is analysed in order to determine a preliminary set of variables which explain the structure at this highly aggregated level. Examination of the data allows us to focus on the most important explanatory variables, which include exchange rates, government policies and supply and demand factors.     

上海市区商业等级空间的结构与演变

以上海为例,选取上海各个等级商业中心作为研究对象,探讨其发展演变特征和机制,预测未来商业的空间发展趋势,针对当前商业发展中出现的问题提出建议.研究认为,改革开放以后,由于经济水平提高导致的居民购买力下移、城市和交通的发展、消费行为方式的变化等要素的影响,使上海商业中心业态类型多样化,商品种类丰富,综合功能提高,并出现了以空间上的郊区化、等级上的社区化、结构上的扁平化为特征的新的发展趋势.对如何加强社区商业发展、市级商业中心建设、大卖场的合理规划等问题进行了讨论,并提出设想和发展思路.     

Information and trade sizes: The case of short sales

In this study, we examine short selling of NASDAQ stocks and observe that more information about future returns is contained in small short sales than in medium-sized and large short sales, thus supporting the idea that NASDAQ short sellers stealth trade. These results are robust to different subsamples of stocks with and without tradable options and stocks that are more likely to face binding borrowing constraints. Further, these findings are contrary to the results in Boehmer, Jones, and Zhang (2008) who find that large NYSE short sales contain the most information. Combined, our study supports the idea that NASDAQ's bid test is less restricting than the NYSE's uptick rule and therefore attenuates the likelihood of stealth trading (Diether, Lee, & Werner, 2009a).     

A semiparametric technique to estimate survival probabilities

The role of the so-called surplus processes in the assessment of probability of survival of a company is well-known in risk theory and applications thereof. However, the insurance models used in this regard ignore the fact that, in many situations, no relevant information is available for the assessment of survival after the company goes out of business. In this paper, we revisit the classical risk model in order to remedy this situation. Having stopped the deficit process, which is negative of the surplus process, at the time of ruin, under two different sampling schemes, we obtain inference procedure for ruin probabilities. As by products of our methodology, we also obtain procedures to assess the reliability of systems whose survival depends on a cumulative damage process, which is equivalent to the aggregate claim size process of the classical risk model.     

The effect of adverse publicity on sales: A case study

This paper estimates lost sales resulting from adverse publicity for a small company soon after it began selling solar hot-water units. Ordinary least squares analysis generates estimates from seasonally adjusted data. To capture the structural shift in sales, alternative series of dummy variables are tested along with other explanatory variables. The ‘best’ of the equations is reported, and the outcome of the court suit is discussed.     

Kernel method to estimate nonlinear structural equation models

Quality & Quantity - The purpose of this paper is to provide a nonparametric kernel method to estimate nonlinear structural equation models involving the functional effects between the latent...     

The raise method. An alternative procedure to estimate the parameters in presence of collinearity

Recently, Feng-Jeng (Qual Quant 42:417–426, 2008) has proposed the nested estimation procedure as another alternative from the practical point of view of the problem of multicollinearity. Although the nested estimation procedure can promise to avoid multicollinearity, it can also avoid important information by eliminating variables. We are presenting another alternative called the raise method, which keeps all the information which could be highly recommended in some cases. We apply our proposal to a known example and compare the results with the nested estimation procedure, the ridge regression and the principal components.     

From classical to contemporary leadership challenges

This article explored the Aeneid, Virgil's foundation epic of the Latin canon, from a values‐based leadership perspective, which is defined as the moral foundation underlying stewardship decisions and actions of leaders. Specifically, we juxtaposed the resonant leadership elements of vision, culture, and values—and their corresponding equivalent Roman themes of fatum, pietas, and virtus. Using a thematic analysis approach, we coded the following eight values: integrity, good judgment, leadership by example, decision making, trust, justice/fairness, humility, and sense of urgency. We found that while the Aeneid extols prototypical values, the epic instructs that truly effective leadership is not about being a monochromatic prototype. Rather, the epic reveals that the essence and privilege of effective leadership demands reflection on the dynamic relationship between the leader and the led toward a better, envisioned future.     

Ranking journal quality by harmonic mean of ranks: an application to ISI statistics & probability

As the preponderance of journal rankings becomes increasingly more frequent and prominent in academic decision making, such rankings in broad discipline categories is taking on an increasingly important role. The paper focuses on the robustness of rankings of academic journal quality and research impact using the widely‐used Thomson Reuters ISI Web of Science citations database (ISI) for the Statistics & Probability category. The paper analyses 110 ISI international journals in Statistics & Probability using quantifiable research assessment measures (RAMs), and highlights the similarities and differences in various RAMs, which are based on alternative transformations of citations and influence. Alternative RAMs may be calculated annually or updated daily to determine when, where and how (frequently) published papers are cited (see Chang, McAleer and Oxley (2011a, b, c) , Chang, Maasoumi and McAleer (2012) ). The RAMs are grouped in four distinct classes that include impact factor, mean citations and non‐citations, journal policy, number of high quality papers, and journal influence and article influence. These classes include the most widely used RAMs, namely the classic 2‐year impact factor including journal self citations (2YIF), 2‐year impact factor excluding journal self citations (2YIF^*), 5‐year impact factor including journal self citations (5YIF), Eigenfactor (or Journal Influence), Article Influence, h‐index, PI‐BETA (Papers Ignored – By Even The Authors), 5YD2 (= 5YIF/2YIF) as a measure of citations longevity, and escalating self citations as a measure of increasing journal self citations. The paper highlights robust rankings based on the harmonic mean of the ranks of RAMs across the 4 classes. It is shown that focusing solely on the 2YIF of a journal, which partly answers the question as to when published papers are cited, to the exclusion of other informative RAMs, which answer where and how (frequently) published papers are cited, can lead to a distorted evaluation of journal quality, impact and influence relative to the more robust harmonic mean of the ranks.