TOTAL TRANSACTION MEASURES AND M1 GROWTH

This paper examines the role of measures of total transactions in explaining growth in the demand for Ml money balances. Fueled by strong growth in financial activities, total transactions have grown rapidly relative to nominal GNP, especially since 1979. In an aggregate Ml equation, we find financial transaction measures to be of some additional help in explaining Ml growth, beyond the ability of GNP to do so alone. A disaggregated approach shows more promise, with transaction measures improving the explanation of demand deposit growth.     

DIMENSIONS,TRANSACTIONS COSTS AND COALITIONS IN LEGISLATIVE VOTING*

Dimensional studies of Congressional voting have found a single dominant “ideological” dimension, while regression estimates find that constituency variables and party are dominant. Koford (1989b) recalibrated the dimensional studies, and found that several dimensions are important. This study reviews those findings, and then considers additional reasons why dimensional studies might understate the number of dimensions. It then examines the regression estimates for biases that overstate the number of dimensions. Overall, fewer dimensions are found than seem consistent with the wide variety of constituents' preferences on issues. A model is developed in which the transactions costs of building coalitions reduces the number of dimensions visible on roll-call votes below the underlying dimensionality of preferences in the issue space. When legislative parties build internal coalitions to pass and defeat bills, voting on randomly drawn bills has a single party-oriented dimension. Natural ideological dimensions are reinforced when parties write bills and logroll along natural lines of cohesion. Numerical examples suggest that these effects could be important, and suggest lines for empirical investigation of the underlying issue space.     

ON EXPORT-LED GROWTH IN AUSTRALIA AND CANADA: COINTEGRATION, CAUSALITY AND STRUCTURAL STABILITY*

This paper uses cointegration and vector-error correction (VEC) modelling to investigate whether the export-led growth hypothesis applies to Australian and Canadian exports and labour productivity. The Johansen (1988) procedure is used to test whether manufacturing and aggregate measures of exports and labour productivity are cointegrated. Exports and labour productivity are found to be cointegrated, suggesting the export-led growth hypothesis holds for the small, open Australian and Canadian economies, although the estimated cointegrating vectors suggest the relationship is of small order. The tests suggested in Hansesn (1992), for parameter stability in relationships with I(1) variables, are estimated to examine if the parameters estimated from the Johansen procedure are unstable and whether the null of cointegration can be rejected in favour of structural change. No evidence is found of parameter instability in either the Australian or Canadian long-run relationships at conventional significance levels. Estimation of VEC models suggests that exports are seen to cause productivity growth, although the quantitative impacts are again small. The reverse causality is rejected for both countries, except for the Canadian manufacturing sector for which there is a small, significant positive effect of labour productivity on manufactured exports.     

GROWTH AREAS,GROWTH CENTRES AND REGIONAL CONVERSION*

Five arguments in favour of a growth area strategy have been analysed and though all of them lack empirical substance, they have certain merits on a priori grounds. Thus any policy which contributes, on the long-run, to a more rapid concentration of a region's population into relatively large urban areas, is likely to create the conditions for servicing net and replacement demand for social/economic overhead capital at a low per capita cost. Moreover for a given subsidy cost, discriminatory investment in the dense, complex, urbanised areas of a region may maximise the flow of income to regional earners in the short-run: attract the maximum flow of exogenous enterprise and capital; and give the best chance of creating a new export base which reduces the regional balance-of-payments deficit and provides sufficient job-opportunities to restrain the flow out of the region of the economically active. In addition, the quality and content of shortterm regional planning may be improved if the mix and scheduling of public investment over time is given a rigorous spatial dimension. Thus, on all of these counts, there are convincing reasons for encouraging an especially rapid development of the relative large, dense interrelated urban areas and by contrast good reasons for a relative neglect of the small hinterland areas.     

PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AND WORKER REALLOCATION*

Productivity dispersion across firms is large and persistent, and worker reallocation among firms is an important source of productivity growth. An equilibrium model of growth and firm evolution designed to clarify the role of worker reallocation in the growth process is studied. We show that it explains the correlations between size measures and labor productivity found in Danish firm data. Conditions under which the reallocation of workers from less to more productive firms contributes to aggregate productivity growth in the economy modeled are derived. Finally, a proof of existence of an equilibrium solution to the model is also provided.     

SENIORITY WAGES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH*

Economies that lack well‐developed markets for mobilizing household savings may, in some instances, grow faster than those that are financially more developed, provided that their labour markets are also characterized by seniority rather than spot wages. This occurs because of a Kaldorian redistribution effect in a model where households have finite‐horizons and where older workers, as an endogenous feature, have higher saving rates.     

VOTING AND THE INTERTEMPORAL SELECTION OF TAX RATES IN A MACRO-ECONOMY*

This paper presents a macroeconomic model where governments are motivated both by their ideological preference for alternative fiscal policies that vary in their short run and long run consequences and by their reelection prospects. I prove that a sequential equilibrium exists in which moderate incumbents compromise their ideologies in order to get reelected, while extreme governments forego reelection but tie the hands of their successors. The view implied by this model is that incumbent governments, in order to get reelected, do not ideologically differentiate themselves from one another since such behavior is likely to result in loss of office. Alternatively, governments that are either subsequently not reelected or are lame ducks pursue ideologically preferred policies since they are less constrained by the electorate.     

INTEREST GROUPS,ELECTORAL COMPETITION,AND PROBABILISTIC VOTING FOR TRADE POLICIES*

Current models of trade policy formation in representative democracies lack the micro foundations from which the political actions of voters, interest groups, and policy makers can be deduced. This paper provides microfoundations for the most influential of representative democracy models, the Magee-Brock-Young (MBY) model. Probabilistic voting is formally introduced, the conditions for active lobbying are examined, uniqueness of lobbying equilibrium is established, and the responses of different groups' lobbying to exogenous changes are discussed. Finally, the existence of tariff equilibria is studied when, different from MBY, both parties share a common strategy space.     

LAND PRICE,COLLATERAL AND ECONOMIC GROWTH*

This paper extends Kiyotaki and Moore's (1997 ) to an endogenous growth model and investigates the dynamic properties of a growing economy with binding credit constraint when land is used not only as an input of production but also as collateral. There exists a balanced growth path in an economy with binding credit constraint. In response to a once and for all productivity shock, the developed model shows the propagation mechanism among output, capital, bank credit and the land price in terms of the growth rate. The model's tractability allows us to derive interesting qualitative and quantitative findings on business cycles.     

基于农业非点源污染控制的流域综合管理对策

流域综合管理是从整体上控制农业非点源污染、协调流域上下游环境经济社会发展、实现流域农业可持续发展的有效途径。本文以福建九龙江流域为例，通过分析农业非点源污染产生的系统过程、分布特征、控制环节、制约因素、控制步骤等内容，探讨以不同等级汇水区为单位实行流域综合管理的必要性，阐述了组成流域综合管理体系的经济、环境、社会政策措施。     

IDEAL AND REAL JAPANESE MONETARY POLICY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ACTUAL AND OPTIMAL POLICY MEASURES*

This paper discusses the successes and failures of Japanese monetary policy by evaluating policies from January 1980 to May 2003 in the light of optimal policy rules. First, we quantitatively conceptualize the Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s policy decisions by employing Bernanke and Mihov's (1998 ) econometric methodology for developing monetary policy measures and term the resulting policy measure the ‘actual policy measure’. Next, assuming that the BOJ is committed to optimal policy rules, we simulate optimal policy paths, which we term ‘optimal policy measures’. We evaluate Japanese monetary policy historically by comparing actual and optimal policy measures.     

构建邵阳都市区的基本思路与策略

都市区发展及其空间形态塑造是学界多年来关注的热门话题之一,也是区域空间规划的重要内容与方向之一。本章从解析都市区的概念入手,提出了建构邵阳都市区的基本理念与“一核三星、一带两轴”的空间结构,为保证空间发展的有序推进,还就推进邵阳都市区协调发展的策略进行了阐述。     

SECTOR‐SPECIFIC EXTERNALITIES AND STATUS PREFERENCES IN THE UZAWA‐LUCAS MODEL*

This paper shows that introducing preferences for social status based on human capital holdings modifies the finding of Gómez (2004 ) that sector‐specific externalities associated with human capital in the goods sector do not violate the optimality of the competitive economy in the Uzawa–Lucas model. The effect of an increase in the degree of sector‐specific externalities is qualitatively the same as that of an increase in the strength of the desire for status. Hence, paradoxically, a greater degree of sector‐specific externalities makes human capital accumulation more excessive from the social point of view.     

广东省中小企业技术创新行为特征与对策

改革开放以来,中小企业作为广东经济的微观基础和亮点,在区域经济中具有举足轻重的作用。在全球化和知识经济背景下,广东能否增创新优势,中小企业技术创新能力的提升尤为关键。文章在对广东中小企业发展概况及其在全国地位的背景分析基础上,通过问卷调查和访谈,揭示广东省中小企业技术创新行为的现状特征,给出提升企业技术创新能力的对策建议。研究表明:广东中小企业技术创新投入相对较高,但创新产出绩效一般;由于资金、技术和人才的相对劣势,合作和模仿战略仍是现阶段多数中小企业技术创新战略的现实选择;与企业具有垂直联系的原材料供应商和产品销售商在技术创新活动中发挥着更为重要的作用,而高校、科研院所、中介服务机构与中小企业的创新交流并不多;在保证中小企业创新主体地位的同时,应重视政府规制和调控服务功能,进一步优化区域创新环境,完善区域创新网络。