WATER MANAGEMENT AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE: VILLAGE DAMS IN SRI LANKA

This paper studies the intertemporal allocation of monsoonal water storage in village dam-based irrigation systems in the Dry Zone of Sri Lanka. The traditional water management practices observed in these villages are based on common property access and serve to minimise social conflict over water rights. They are also acceptably efficient in economic terms, given the water demands of the traditional rice production technology. Adoption of high-yielding variety (HYV) rice technology produces a dramatic increase in rice output, but the traditional water-management practices then become less efficient. The paper demonstrates a method for determining the nature of an efficient water-management system and for estimating the economic magnitude of the inefficiency arising from the traditional practices. In the case study, efficient water management increases the gains available from HYV adoption by a further one fourth.     

ASYMMETRIC AGRICULTURAL SUPPLY RESPONSE: EVIDENCE FROM BANGLADESH AGRICULTURE

This paper investigates whether sugar cane supply in the mill zones of Bangladesh responds asymmetrically to a price rise and a price fall by estimating several models suggested in the literature on agricultural supply. It is found that sugar cane area, in the event of a price rise, is more than twice as elastic as in the event of a price fall, and that this is true both in the short run and the long run.     

AGRICULTURAL POLICIES IN THE USSR: PROBLEMS,TRENDS AND PROSPECTS

The paper, after presenting a brief profile of USSR agriculture, elaborates on the main goals of USSR agricultural policies as well as on the main instruments used for implementing these policies. It tries to point out the achievements and constraints of these policies which are underlying Mr Gorbachev's efforts towards a reform of the USSR food economy. The main elements of this reform, so far as they have already become visible at this stage, are discussed and the inherent risks are indicated. The paper finishes with a brief speculative look at the possible effects of the reform measures on the world food economy, if they were implemented consistently and successfully.     

LIBERALISING OECD AGRICULTURAL POLICIES IN THE URUGUAY ROUND: EFFECTS ON TRADE AND WELFARE

A dynamic, stochastic, multi-commodity model of world food markets is used to estimate the effects of liberalising agricultural policies in industrial countries. The effects on international and domestic prices, on trade volumes and on economic welfare of a phased liberalisation of industrial-country policies between 1988 and 1992 are compared with the effects of a similar hypothetical liberalisation in the early 1980s. The results suggest that, because of the dramatic increase in agricultural protection during the 1980s, the effects of a liberalisation under the Uruguay Round would be, in real terms, more than double those that would have resulted from a similar liberalisation a decade earlier. Major gainers are consumers in Western Europe and Japan and farmers in developing countries. But the cost to tax-payers in Western Europe is also escalating, not to mention the burden on non-agricultural producers in those countries whose competitiveness is reduced by farm policies. These domestic pressures from treasuries and from producers of non-farm products, together with greater international pressure for reform from agricultural-exporting countries, have raised the probability of at least some liberalisation during the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations.     

THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT IN AGRICULTURAL MARKETING

The author considers the question ‘What is a marketing improvement and how can it be recognised?’ and finds it a more difficult question to answer than it might first appear. Yet government is constantly urging ‘improvement’ on the industry. Rejecting the notion that government is somehow better placed than people in the market to decide what should be the pattern of the future, the author suggests that a proper role for government is to create the context within which the natural, self-adjusting mechanisms of the market economy can function properly, and explores the implications of such a role. He also argues a case for reconsidering the structure and role of the bodies which represent sectoral interests.     

AGRICULTURAL POLICIES IN OECD COUNTRIES: AGENDA FOR THE FUTURE

Market disequilibria, the economic costs involved and the resulting international tensions have led to a political agreement on the need to reform agricultural policies in the direction of market orientation. However, progress has been limited so far. The present period is decisive in requiring the concrete implementation of the agreed reform principles, through a combination of domestic and international actions. In this process of reform, agriculture will be faced with new issues, reflecting the overall structural adjustment of economies and their growing internationalisation.     

GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON AGRICULTURE AND AGRICULTURAL PERFORMANCE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: AN EMPIRICAL EVALUTION

In recent years, new prominence has been assigned to the effects of non-price measures on the performance of the agricultural sector in developing countries. Nevertheless, the contribution of government expenditure to agricultural output growth has not received its due attention. This paper endeavours to estimate the impact of government expenditure (on agriculture) on the performance of the agricultural sector. An inter-country production function is estimated for a sample of thirty-five developing countries, pooling cross-section and time-series data over the 1974-84 period. The influence of instability in government expenditure on agriculture and on agricultural growth is also assessed. The results show that government expenditure policies are of vital importance in influencing the performance of the agricultural sector. It was also found that instability in government expenditure is a deterrent to agricultural output growth.     

BEEF SUPPLY RESPONSE IN NORTH AMERICA

Beef supply response results from sequential decisions made by cow-calf and feed lot operators. In this paper a five equation model reflecting these decisions is developed and empirical estimates of the equations presented for Eastern and Western Canada and the United States. First, stocker calf prices are estimated as a function of steer and feed prices. Second, stocker calf prices are used in equations to explain adjustments in a) the breeding herd and b) cow slaughter. Then the breeding herd is combined with steer prices and feed cost or availability to explain heifer and steer slaughter and carcass weights. Parameters of the estimated equations indicate the flow of causality in beef supply response and differences in response among the three regions. Le niveau de l'offre dans l'industrie du boeuf résulte de la suite de décisions prisent par les éleveurs et les propriétaires de pare d'engraissement. Cet article développe un modéle à cinq équations pour expliquer ces décisions; des estimés empirique de ces équations sont données pour l'Est et l'Ouest du Canada ainsi que pour les Etats-Unis. Premiérement, les prix des veaux d'engrais sont calculés en fonction du prix des bouvillons et des aliments pour le bétail. Deuxiemement, on utilise le prix des veaux d'engrais dans des équations qui expliquent les changements dans a) le troupeau de reproduction et b) l'abbatage des vaches. Ensuite, le troupeau de reproduction est combiné avec le prix des bouvillons et les coúts ou disponibilité des aliments pour le bétail pour expliquer les abattages et poids des carcasses des bouvillons et des génisses. Les paramétres des équations ainsi evaluées démontrent la suite des réactions de cause a effet de l'offre dans l'industrie du boeuf, ainsi que les différentes réactions entre les trois regions.     

HERD STRUCTURE AND MILK SUPPLY RESPONSE

Research on milk supply response has previously concentrated on changes in the national herd and changes in yield. It is argued that this does not provide a sound foundation for understanding the secular increase in milk output given generally declining real milk prices. A recent theory of farm size is outlined and adapted to explain changes in dairy herd size. The herd size determinants are the relative costs of labour and capital. The theory is used to specify equations which are estimated to explain changes in the number of herds, the average size of herds, and yields in England and Wales 1964–1982.     

POPULATION DYNAMICS AND MILK SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE US LAKE STATES

This paper develops a dynamic model of a dairy cow population and of milk supply response. When applied to the US Lake States, the model provides evidence against the Nerlovian model. It suggests that the pattern of dynamic effects of prices on cow numbers varies for different prices. The estimated dynamic supply elasticities provide some useful information on the nature of dairy production adjustments. For example, the response of milk supply to market prices is found to be very inelastic in the short run. It takes at least 7 years of sustained change to obtain an elastic response to milk price. Also, feed price and slaughter cow price are found to have smaller effects on dairy supply than milk price, but larger effects than risk, hay price or capital cost.     

SUPPLY RESPONSE WITH STOCHASTIC TECHNOLOGY AND PRICES IN AUSTRALIA'S RURAL EXPORT INDUSTRIES

Risky output prices and production characterise Australian agriculture. Exports are vitally important, sometimes relying heavily on a particular market. In this study a model is developed to include explicitly both output price and technological risks as well as multiple output relationships. It is used to show that changes in US beef import policy generating a 10 per cent beef price fall could reduce Australian beef supply by 3.5 per cent and grazing industry net revenue by 8.4 per cent, despite some switching from beef production to other enterprises.     

中国农业供给侧结构性改革探讨

[目的]推进农业供给侧结构性改革,是解决我国农业主要矛盾,实现农业现代化的重要举措,该研究旨在寻找我国农业供给侧存在的问题,针对问题提出供给侧改革的思路和政策措施。[方法]文章运用供求平衡分析的方法,将我国农产品产量与平衡膳食条件下我国农产品需求量进行比较,进而确定我国农业供给侧存在问题。[结果]目前我国农业供给侧主要存在"三个过剩、两个不足":玉米生产过剩;蔬菜生产隐性过剩;畜禽肉类生产阶段性过剩;高品质农产品供应不足;国产蛋白饲料和奶类等农产品供应不足。[结论]该文据此提出了"蓄产能、调结构、控产量、提质量"的供给侧改革总体思路以及加强农业生产预警和宏观调控、推进农产品目标价格改革、加强市场环境和农产品品牌建设、设定大豆进口规模上限等建议,推动我国农业供给侧结构性改革。     

THE DISINCENTIVE EFFECT OF FOOD-FOR-WORK ON LABOUR SUPPLY AND AGRICULTURAL INTENSIFICATION AND DIVERSIFICATION IN ETHIOPIA

Food-for-work (FFW) as a form of food aid has been criticised for its many disincentive effects. This paper investigates alleged disincentive effects of food-for-work (FFW) on labour supply and agricultural intensification and diversification in one district of Ethiopia, using a ranking exercise and a small survey of farmer opinion. Despite the popularity of FFW as a source of income, careful project design meant that disincentives were largely avoided. In particular, the take-up of FFW was restricted, by a combination of self-targeting and community based administrative rationing; and agricultural intensification and diversification were encouraged directly through extension programmes.     

SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE AUSTRALIAN SHEEP INDUSTRY: A CASE FOR DISAGGREGATION AND DYNAMICS*

Microeconomic capital goods theory was utilised to provide a theoretical framework on which a dynamic econometric model was based. Econometric procedures were then employed in an analysis of sheep producers' decision making regarding the annual supplies of wool, lamb and mutton, and annual changes in the inventory levels of sheep, lambs and ewes maintained for breeding purposes. Estimates show that wool prices provide the long-run stimulus for increases and decreases in the sheep flock while mutton and lamb prices are responsible for short-run changes in flock composition. Substitution between sheep and beef cattle is of considerable importance although no significant substitution between sheep and cropping could be found. Seasonal conditions proved to be an important short-run supply shifter, affecting both numbers and composition of the sheep flock.     

SIMULATED MARKETS,FARM STRUCTURE,AND AGRICULTURAL POLICIES*

In this investigation estimated relationships of resource markets for United States agriculture are used in a simulation model to study resource demand and farm income under three conditions: (a) those actually prevailing, including the historic mix of agricultural policies, (b) with technical change in agriculture only half the rate realized, and (c) with a free market. The results indicate that compared with “actual” conditions the environment of slow technical change would have modest effects in slowing the demand for farm machinery and the migration of labor from agriculture. It also would result in greater net farm income in the 1960's. A free market would be accompanied by increased investment in farm machinery and a greater exodus of family and hired labor from agriculture. It also would result in a smaller farm building investment and a considerable reduction of farm income. Since economic conditions are so similar in both countries, the implications of these findings are related to Canadian agriculture on the assumption the same model would show the same outcomes for Canada. Dans cette étude, des rapports estimés des marchés des ressources pour ?agriculture des Etats-Uns sont employés dans un modéle de simulation afin ?étudier la demande des ressources et le revenu agricol net sous trois conditions: (a) celle qui régne réellement, incluant le mélange historique de politiques agricoles; (b) celle qui ne montre le changement technique de ?agriculture qti à la moitié du train realise; et (c) celle qui profite ?un marché libre. Les résultats indiquent que ?enrironnement du changement technique modéré, quand il est compareé avec les conditions réelles, produirait des effets modestes en diminuant la demande pour des machines agricoles et en ralentissant ?exode de la main-?oeuvre de ?agriculture. En outre, cet environment aurait pour résultat un revenu agricole net plus fort dans les années de 1060 à 1970. Vne marché libre serait accompangne de placements augmentés dans les machines agricoles et ?un plus grand exode de la main ?oeuvre familiale et salariée de ?agriculture. Aussi, ceci aboutirait à un investissement moindre dans la construction rurale et à une réduction considérable du revenu agricole. Puisque les conditions économiques des deux pays sont si ressemblantes, les implications de ces conclusions sont rattachées à?agriculture cana-dienne en supposant que le même modéle montrerait les mêmes résultats pour le Canada.     

SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE AUSTRALIAN EXTENSIVE LIVESTOCK AND CROPPING INDUSTRIES: A STUDY OF INTENTIONS AND EXPECTATIONS*

Most of the supply elasticity estimates reported for Australian agriculture are derived from equations estimated using time series data and incorporating ad hoc assumptions about price expectations. The authors' aim is to compare previously obtained supply elasticity estimates with those derived using theoretically more acceptable survey data on both producers' intentions and price expectations. Surveys were conducted in three regions in N.S.W., namely, the Southern Tablelands, the South-West Slopes and a portion of the Western Division centred on Cobar. The results of the research show that there are no major differences between the supply elasticities derived using the traditional time series approach and those obtained using the survey data. This finding is reassuring, given the cost of collecting survey data.     

THE EFFECT OF PRICE REDUCTION AND DIRECT INCOME SUPPORT POLICIES ON AGRICULTURAL INPUT MARKETS IN AUSTRIA

The purpose of this paper is to examine empirically the effects of a shift from price support to direct income policy on agricultural factor markets and aggregate output. By utilising an econometric model for the Austrian agricultural sector, it is argued that the main purpose of this policy change, which is to move producers away from making production decisions in response to income support policies and to facilitate their response to market signals (‘decoupling’), is only partially realised. Switching from price to direct income support would result in little reduction in output, but some positive secondary effects can be observed. Ecological goals could be realised by lessening the degree of industrialisation due to lowering the capital-labour and intermediate input-labour ratios.     

THE ELASTICITY OF AGGREGATE AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURAL SUPPLY: ESTIMATES AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Annual time series data for the period 1950-51 through 1975-76 are used to estimate the price elasticity of aggregate Australian agricultural supply using two methods. The short-run elasticity is estimated to be highly inelastic but it has been increasing through time. The preferred estimate of the long-run elasticity is in the relatively inelastic range and it has also been increasing through time. Some implications of these results for intersectoral resource flows and compensatory assistance, the cost-price squeeze, the effects of the mineral boom and monetary policy are discussed.