Compensated optimal response under uncertainty in agricultural household models

This study derives the qualitative properties of a household's optimal consumption, family labour, hired labour and non-labour input choices under price and/or output risk through a Slutsky-type compensation without imposing any restriction on risk preference structure or production technology. These compensated responses provide the underpinning for welfare analysis in agricultural household models under risk. The framework for the evaluation of welfare effects of product and factor price interventions in a setting of output and price risk is developed. The paper also outlines an empirical model for estimation of the compensated demand and supply responses and for validation of the paper's analytical results.     

Microeconomic Efficiencies and Macroeconomic Inefficiencies: On Sustainable Fisheries Policies in Very Poor Countries

Simple macro-models are used in a two good output spaces to show that, under certain conditions that occur in very poor countries, fisheries policies aimed at concentrating rent and rationalizing excess capacity may result in declines in economic growth. In cases where displaced labour has nowhere else to go, such policies may be welfare decreasing for the country as a whole. The second best policy in these cases would be to encourage open access fishing with controls on overall output. An example based upon information gathered on the shrimp fishery in Madagascar describes the relations between the relative price between artisanal and industrial fishing sectors, and differential effects of the leakage of rents through the net exports equation due to policies favouring capacity rationalization.     

A Risk Responsive Acreage Response Function for Millet in Niger

In this paper the impact of price risk on millet production in Niger is investigated. The hypothesis that farmers respond to output price risk is tested. The results indicate that millet acreage planted decreased when millet price risk increased or when price risk of the competing crop decreased and therefore farmers do respond to changes in risk.     

Measuring producer welfare under output price uncertainty and risk non-neutrality

Procedures to measure the producer welfare effects of changes in an output price distribution under uncertainty are reviewed. Theory and numerical integration methods are combined to show how for any form of Marshallian risk-responsive supply, compensating variation of a change in higher moments of an output price distribution can be derived numerically. The numerical procedure enables measurement of producer welfare effects in the many circumstances in which risk and uncertainty are important elements. The practical ease and potential usefulness of the procedure is illustrated by measuring the producer welfare effects of USA rice policy.     

Agricultural Policy Reform and Off‐farm Labour Decisions

Off‐farm labour decisions of a sample of Kansas farmers are evaluated. The central question of our analysis pertains to whether 1996 US farm policy reforms may have altered the decisions to work off the farm. The effects of policy decoupling on off‐farm labour are complex: different aspects of policy changes can have opposing effects on off‐farm work decisions. Essentially, this makes this issue an empirical question. Results show that the introduction of fixed, decoupled payments in 1996 might have reduced the likelihood of off‐farm labour participation. However, the new policy environment may have increased farm households’ revealed aversion to risk, motivating a higher participation in non‐farm labour markets. The effects of 1996 policy reforms on farm income variability could have been attenuated by changes in US crop insurance programmes and by an increase in emergency assistance payments towards the end of the 1990s. The reduction in price supports may have increased the motivation for working off the farm. The net effect of the overall reforms on off‐farm work participation is not likely to have been large.     

Women’s Labour Contribution to Productivity and Efficiency in Agriculture: Empirical Evidence From Bangladesh

This article examines the contribution of women’s labour input to productivity and efficiency in crop farming using a large survey dataset of 1,839 households from 16 villages in two agro‐ecological regions of Bangladesh. Results reveal that female labour accounts for a substantial 28% of total labour use (mainly supplied from the family) and contributes significantly to productivity as well as technical efficiency. Contrary to expectation, the cost share of female labour input is significantly higher than the male share, and has a substitution relationship with all other inputs, including male labour. The estimated mean level of technical efficiency is 0.90, implying that crop output might be increased by 10% by eliminating technical inefficiency. Both male and female education have a significant impact on improving technical efficiency. Other significant technical efficiency shifters are farming experience, family size and crop diversification. Owner operators are found to be technically inefficient relative to the tenants. Policy implications include creation of a hired labour market for female labour so that more women can be involved in the production process, and can contribute to towards improving productivity and efficiency. In addition, investment in education for both men and women, strategies to promote crop diversification and effective regulation/modification of the tenancy market will significantly improve technical efficiency in this case.     

Balancing economic revenue and grazing pressure of livestock grazing on the Qinghai–Tibetan–Plateau

Treating grazing pressure as an undesirable output of livestock grazing in a directional distance function improves understanding of how economic behaviour affects the environment. Field survey data from 193 livestock grazing households combined with remotely sensed net primary productivity (NPP) data on the Qinghai–Tibetan–Plateau was used to develop a directional output‐orientation distance function. The average efficiency of livestock grazing households is 0.817 when incorporating grazing pressure as an undesirable output, which means that households can achieve 18.3% more output and decrease proportional grazing pressure holding all inputs fixed. The relative shadow price of undesirable grazing pressure to good output grazing revenue is estimated to be between 1.795 and 3.986. According to the Morishima elasticity of substitution between inputs, there is a significant complementary relationship between grassland, labour and capital.     

Modeling the Reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy for Arable Crops under Uncertainty

The size of the insurance and wealth effects of a change in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for arable crops is estimated. The impact of price uncertainty is accounted for in the specific decision-making structure of the European Union (EU) arable crop producers under nonlinear mean-variance risk preferences. A system of output supply, input demand, and land allocation equations is estimated on a sample of Italian specialized arable crop farms. The simulation of the impact of the recent reforms confirms that farmers' output responses are consistently affected by the size of the insurance and wealth effects.     

Drivers of food price in China: A heterogeneous panel SVAR approach

In this paper, we examine the effects of shocks in agricultural output, production material price and production price on China's food price using panel data of 26 provinces for the period 2004 Q1–2015 Q4. Employing a heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, we identify the causal flows between the endogenous variables via directed acyclic graphs method. The empirical results from impulse response functions and variance decompositions suggest sizeable cross‐province variations. The main driving force of food price is the price inertia shock, rather than the agricultural output or the vertical chain of price transmission shocks. The findings support the view that price expectation is the key shifter of food price. Moreover, the shocks in the vertical chain of price transmission are only weakly linked to food price. Our findings are robust to an alternative panel SVAR model identified via Cholesky decomposition.     

Optimal Input Use When Inputs Affect Price and Yield

Input use has been shown to impact the variance of output and therefore risk. When inputs affect both output level and the price of the output, the variance of revenue and profit depend on each effect and their interactions. We analyze the effect of nitrogen (N) use rate applied to wheat on the variance of yield, revenue, and the price of wheat, when protein premiums (discounts) are applied. We find that N use rate increases the variance of yield, but reduces the variance of price. The net effect of N use rate on revenue and profit is variance increasing, but the variance effect is less than for yield alone. Optimal rates of N are about 60% higher with protein payments compared with a constant wheat price over all protein levels. Risk-averse producers apply less N than risk-neutral producers but, because revenue and profit risk is lower with protein payments, the reduction in N is less than if based on a constant price over all protein levels.     

Concentrated poverty and neighbourhood effects: youth marginalisation in Buenos Aires’ informal settlements

This paper provides evidence for the relationship between concentrated poverty as manifested in the informal settlements and the labour market in the city of Buenos Aires. It also examines the consequences that these have on the social marginalisation of young people. First, it analyses the effects of residential location in informal settlements on labour market access. Secondly, it examines the results of multivariate analyses which measure the net effect of living in informal settlements on key indicators of youth marginalisation, as well as the interrelation of the effects of family educational and occupational status. The results demonstrate that the spatial concentration of poverty in informal settlements is linked to labour market segmentation, and is a central determinant of urban marginality. For young people, the very fact of living in informal settlements, in households with highly precarious employment status, significantly increases their risk of marginalisation in a cumulative manner. These findings point to the importance of adopting an integral approach that addresses the dynamics of deprivation in a multi-dimensional and multi-level setting.     

DYNAMIC INTERRELATED DEMAND FUNCTIONS FOR FACTORS OF PRODUCTION AND THE AGGREGATE PRODUCTION FUNCTION IN UNITED KINGDOM AGRICULTURE

Taking the price situation as given in product and factor markets, a non-linear differential equation model of gross output, employment, capital accumulation, and gross input for united Kingdom agriculture is derived by incorporating internal adjustment cost functions into the representative decision-maker's objective function, and estimated using a discrete approximation. The results are consistent with efficient use of resources, but further incentives for capital investment and a greater exodus of labour could upset this. Adjustment costs as estimated account for 2.6 per cent of the value of output; those associated with net investment for 1.8 per cent, and those associated with employment and gross input for 0.57 and 0.23 per cent respectively.     

Production Risk and Technical Efficiency in Organic and Conventional Agriculture – The Case of Arable Farms in Germany

This paper quantifies the importance of production risk and technical efficiency as two possible sources of production variability in German organic and conventional farming. Determinants of production risk and inefficiency are investigated based on a combination of Just and Pope’s stochastic production framework and a Stochastic Frontier Analysis. The empirical analysis is conducted using a balanced panel of farm records from 1999/2000 to 2006/2007 on 37 organic and conventional arable farms, respectively. Euclidian‐Distance‐Matching is used to identify for each organic farm a conventional counterpart with similar structural features. Results indicate that output variability in both production technologies is mainly caused by production risk. Land and labour are identified as risk‐increasing inputs in both farm types whereas higher capital endowment, seed costs and soil quality have risk‐reducing effects.     

THE EFFECT OF PRICE SUPPORT POLICIES ON AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENT,EMPLOYMENT, FARM INCOMES AND LAND VALUES IN THE U.K.

Agricultural price policy has a major impact on the input markets as well as the output markets and a model is developed to analyse the effects of changes in support levels on U.K. agricultural employment, earnings, investment and land prices. This paper describes the specification, estimation and evaluation of the model and simulates the effects of a one per cent increase in support prices. The main conclusions are that net investment would increase in the years following the rise by a maximum in the second year of £12m and by a cumulative total of £44m (representing an increase of about 0.4 per cent in the capital stock). Employment on the other hand, while rising at first, would subsequently fall to almost one per cent below its original level, and earnings of hired labour also fall slightly. Net farm income increases by around 10 per cent and this is capitalised into a similar increase in land values.     

林地价格及其形成

纯天然的林地和已投入人类劳动的林地都具有价格。林地价格是由林地总价值所决定的,林地总价值包括林地等效价值和林地劳动价值。林地等效价值决定林地物质价格,林地劳动价值决定林地资本价格。林地收益、供求关系、效用和稀缺程度是林地价格的重要影响因素。     

Effects of decoupling on the mean and variability of output

The influence of inputs on output risk in the context of agriculturalproduction decisions taken by non-risk neutral agents has beenignored by previous research assessing the effects of decoupledincome support payments in a deterministic world or risk-neutralframework. We study the impacts of decoupled payments on inputuse and on output mean and variance. Our theoretical frameworkfor studying agricultural producers' responses to lump sum paymentsallows for both output and price uncertainty and economic agents'risk attitudes. Results show the importance, in a non-risk neutralscenario, of considering the influence that economic agentshave on the stochastic component of output through input use.Our empirical application uses Kansas farm-level data to illustratethe model.     

Resource Management under Production and Output Price Uncertainty: Implications for Environmental Policy

Various environmental policies have been proposed to control agricultural runoff of nutrients and pesticides. The impacts of these policies on input use are complicated because of the various sources of uncertainty farmers face and the precise nature of farmers' risk attitude. A risk–averse farmer's response to changed profit , input , and output taxes under output price and production uncertainty is examined. The impact of these policies on input use depends on the form of production uncertainty, risk–input relationships, risk attitudes, and degrees of output price and production uncertainty. These results have implications for the design and implementation of environmental and other production–related policies.     

ESTIMATING SOCIAL COSTS OF ALTERNATIVE SUGAR POLICIES IN SOUTH AFRICA

Social costs of a single-price policy, a two-tier price scheme and of ethanol production in the South African Sugar Industry are estimated. Results indicate that lower social costs are associated with the recently introduced two-tier price scheme compared with the single-price scheme which it replaced. Making quotas transferable under the two-tier price scheme would reduce social costs even further. Ethanol production at present would add to social costs as its replacement value as fuel is less than the cost of production including opportunity costs. Results are obtained from a regional linear programming model that incorporates negative sloping demand functions for products, positive labour supply functions and variance-covariance risk matrices. A limited substitution in the demand specification is also included.     

Equilibrium Analysis of a Quota-regulated Market

Existing micro economic studies of quota-regulated markets have emphasized the short-run effects of market disturbances. This paper considers the long-run market equilibrium impacts of changes in technology, in input prices and in the distribution of output price when risk averse firms may freely enter and exit the regulated industry. Some of the results are intuitive, while others are not. In general, signing long-run equilibrium results requires a less restrictive preference structure than does signing short-run results. However, the nature of the equilibrating mechanism, ignored in partial analysis, is found to be important.     

On the Effects of Government Spending Shocks in Developing Countries

Time series analysis of annual data for a sample of developing countries shows the allocation of government spending shocks, both positive and negative, between price inflation and output growth. Cross-country regressions evaluate determinants of the difference in the real effects of government spending shocks. If the real effects decrease, capacity constraints are more binding and if they increase, the elasticity of aggregate demand is larger with respect to the change in government spending. Cross-country regressions also evaluate the implications of government spending shocks on the difference in trend price inflation and output growth. The variability of government spending shocks decreases trend real output growth and increases trend price inflation across countries.