HEDONIC PRICING FOR A COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF A PUBLIC WATER SUPPLY SCHEME*

During the 1950s and 1960s pipelines were built to provide water to many farms in the central wheatbelt of Western Australia using public funds. The resulting network has become known as the Comprehensive Water Supply Scheme. The expansion of the Scheme is currently under consideration. An ex ante cost benefit analysis of the proposed expansion is undertaken. An earlier analysis which focused on the benefits of the reduced necessity to cart water was rejected by farmer groups because of the inability of the analysis to properly account for domestic benefits and risk reduction. To overcome these criticisms a hedonic model of farm land values is formulated in which the independent variables are the characteristics of a property, including whether or not the property is connected to the Scheme. The implicit marginal price (or value) of Scheme connection is then derived. An advantage of this technique is that it estimates the value that the farmers allocate to Scheme water in the market place. The conclusion is that the benefits of Scheme water are considerably less than the costs.     

速生丰产林经营经济效益敏感性分析

在建设项目经营效益评价体系中,对项目进行敏感性分析是评价项目经济效益的一个重要指标。根据林分的解析木材料和相应的林业技术经济指标,采用净现值法测算林木资产经营收益值,利用敏感性原理分析了不同因子对森林资源经营决策的反应灵敏度,识别风险大小,提出经营对策。分析结果表明:木材价格对杉木林经营经济效益的敏感度最强,其次为经营成本和林业税费,而营林成本、折现率和林地地租的敏感度不高。     

探索集体林区国有林场木材产销方式

本文对福建省国有林场木材产销方式进行探讨,提出木材产销采用包产包销的经营方式,对包产包销经营中的伐前准备、伐区招标、伐区管理进行了研究,达到了减少中间环节,降低木材生产成本,提高经济效益的目的。     

采伐限额制度下实现经济效益最大化问题的研究

分析采伐限额制度的合理性,在这个前提下,探讨如何获得经济收益的最大化。林业资源的经济收益取决于市场状况的同时也受到它本身特性的约束,这里市场状况包括总体用材林限额决定的供给量和整体市场的需求量,林业资源特性包括林业用地的限制、木材培育费用和木材的生长期限。通过将市场状况和林业资源本身特点的结合,得出在不同的情况下如何使用和分配用材林采伐限额,在单位内转结的有效性或者在单位间转让的可能性,以实现在采伐限额制度下取得林业资源经济收益最大化。     

A modified production possibility frontier for efficient forestry management under the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme

Carbon sequestered through increased forest biomass provides a low cost means to curb emissions and has become a major focus of New Zealand's Emissions Trading Scheme. We present a forest planning optimisation model where land use is governed by forest owners maximising the returns to both timber harvest and carbon sequestration. By varying carbon prices, we model efficient trade‐offs between the two forest activities along a modified production possibility frontier for four distinct wood supply regions in New Zealand. Results show that while more productive regions such as the Central North Island (CNI) and Northland have a greater capacity as a carbon sink, it is the less productive regions that have a comparative advantage in carbon sequestration in terms of a lower cost of wood production revenue foregone. However, moderate increases in carbon uptake can be achieved in the CNI at low opportunity cost by subtle changes in forestry management. The implication for policy‐makers is that initial increases in carbon sequestration will be achieved at the lowest cost to society by favouring high volume timber production in some productive woodland areas and/or by more carbon farming in less productive areas.     

LAND TENURE IN THE CYPRESS PINE AREAS OF NORTH-WESTERN NEW SOUTH WALES

In New South Wales there are one million acres of land bearing cypress pine and held under lease from the government. This land is suitable for the joint production of timber and livestock or for timber production alone. Alternatively, the timber can be harvested to provide capital for property development. Farm management plans have, however, been constrained by the land tenure policy which aims to promote both closer settlement and timber production. In this paper the opportunity costs of the current tenure system are evaluated against the freehold situation. The conditions which favour either specialized timber production or the joint production of timber and livestock are examined. Finally, the cost of achieving a timber production target is examined in terms of loss of income to the individual grazier and the nation.     

我国天然橡胶种植户生产行为的影响因素分析——基于橡胶价格持续低迷的背景

[目的]通过分析在天然橡胶价格持续低迷背景下种植户的生产行为,从农户及家庭特征、生产特征、市场因素和政策因素4个方面选取16项指标,研究影响天然橡胶种植户生产行为的因素。[方法]选取2015年在天然橡胶主植区云南、海南的农户调研数据,运用多元Logit模型分析天然橡胶种植户生产行为改变的影响因素。[结果]种植户生产行为选择降低和提高割胶频率是种植户权衡各类因素追求利益最大化而产生的不同行为模式,其中橡胶收入占比、种植年限、投入肥料变化、雇工割胶、生产成本、后期价格态度、补贴满意度、收益满意度8项因素对种植户选择降低割胶频率具有显著影响;受教育子女数量、种植规模、雇工割胶、是否享受补贴4项因素对种植户选择提高割胶频率具有显著影响。[结论]天然橡胶种植户的生产行为受多种因素共同作用,并且天然橡胶价格持续低迷破坏了天然橡胶产业的可持续发展。     

中国生猪养殖场种养一体化综合效益评价研究基于8省的实地调研

目的 种养分离的农业发展方式对生态环境造成严重破坏,是不可持续的发展方式,为重构种养一体化农业循环链条,促进农业健康可持续发展,通过实地调研,分析了中国生猪养殖场种养一体化现状,并从经济效益、社会效益和生态效益方面确定了14项综合效益评价指标,从实证角度对种养一体化农业系统的综合效益进行评价。方法 文章综合运用层次分析法和熵值法测算综合效益评价指标的权重,利用线性加权求和的方法对生猪养殖场种养一体化综合效益进行评价。结果 研究发现：在评价指标的权重方面,生态效益与社会效益的权重已经高于经济效益权重,说明当下社会更加注重生态和社会效益的发展;种养一体化农业系统的综合效益值明显高于非种养一体化,小、中、大规模的生猪养殖场种养一体化综合效益值分别是非种养一体化的1.16、1.20和1.17倍;综合效益值随养殖规模扩大呈现出先增加后减小的趋势,且养殖规模为1 300头左右时综合效益值最高。结论 虽然种养一体化农业系统的综合效益高于专业化农业生产,但在生猪养殖场种养一体化中仍然存在种养失衡、种养协作微弱等问题,尚未达到系统最优化,因此从种养平衡、养分管理体系建设、提高沼气工程利用率和优化种植结构方面提出对策建议。     

The financial benefits of forest certification: Case studies of acacia growers and a furniture company in Central Vietnam

The demand for forest products is growing and plantation forests are supplying an increasing proportion of wood to industry. There are also increasing market requirements to demonstrate the sustainability of timber supply. Vietnam has some 3.9 M ha of plantation forests, 44% of which is on short-rotations managed by smallholders. More than 80 percent of the harvested volume from the plantation forests is used for woodchip production to serve domestic and international markets. The Vietnam Government has goals to increase the domestic supply of suitable wood for furniture production to international markets by increasing the supply of larger logs grown in plantations and the supply of certified wood to industry. However, it is not clear that these objectives will necessarily benefit growers and processors. This study compared financial returns from certified and non-certified forest products for: (1) growers with 10-year rotation acacia plantations; and (2) a furniture processing business (battens for chair and table) in Quang Tri Province, Central Vietnam. The data were collected from smallholder tree growers and a sawmilling company, triangulated with and supplemented by formal and informal interviews with other stakeholders. Currently, much of the cost of certification is met by external aid donors. Results showed that net returns from both certified and non-certified timber products are positive for both actors and are higher from certified timber production than non-certified timber production. When the full costs of certification are included, the benefits to growers of certification are much reduced and potentially negative unless the fixed costs can be spread over a large group of growers. A minimum of group with 3000 ha may be required to make certification cost effective. In recent years, the price difference between the certified and non-certified logs is narrowing and this may discourage farmers from attaining certification. For the sawmiller, the benefit of certified timber production is greater. It would be in their interests to increase prices paid to growers for certified logs. Government policy measures to support certification should include consideration of who bears the cost, support for aggregation of smallholder growers and improved communication in timber supply chains.     

我国谷子种植户持续种植意愿的影响因素研究

文章通过对3个省(自治区)、5个市,268户谷子种植户的问卷调查,采用logit模型,使用逐步回归分析的方法,对影响谷子种植户持续种植谷子意愿的因素进行了分析。从户主个人基本情况、农户家庭情况、农户农业生产情况、谷子生产情况等4个方面共选择13项调查内容作为解释变量,以第2年是否持续种植谷子作为被解释变量,逐步回归分析结果表明:种植户种植业收入占家庭总收入的比重、种植户家庭耕地面积、谷子种植补贴通过了显著性检验。种植业收入占家庭总收入的比重与谷子持续种植呈显著负相关,比重越高持续种植意愿越低。谷子产量受自然因素影响大,农户从减小风险的角度出发,收入对种植业越依赖谷子的种植意愿越弱。家庭耕地面积与谷子持续种植呈显著正相关,家庭耕地面积越大,谷子被选择种植的机会也就越大,规模效应越明显,持续种植意愿越强。补贴对持续种植意愿呈显著正相关关系,种植补贴意味着更多的收益,积极性就越高。依据分析结果提出了要进一步提升对种植谷子的重视,加大科研投入力度,做好科技成果的转化与推广工作;要加大谷子种植补贴的力度、范围及内容,在良种、农膜、资金等方面对种植户给予支持与补贴,调动农户谷子种植的积极性;推进土地流转,在农户种植规模扩大过程中提高土地规模效益的政策建议。     

Adaptive management decision of agroforestry under timber price risk

In an effort to increase wood production and mitigate environmental problems, agro-forestry practices have emerged as a viable strategy in the Northern Plains of China, where one popular form of the agro-forestry system consists of fast-growing and high-yield plantation of poplar (populus) trees and the underwood planting of button mushroom (Agaricus bisporous). This paper examines adaptive management decision-making with stochastic dynamic programming under risk of timber price. Under the assumption of risk neutral preferences of the investors, the results suggest that the reservation price strategy remains optimal for the harvesting decision of agro-forests: when the timber price is higher than the reservation price, poplar trees should be harvested to end agro-forestry; otherwise, the trees should be retained. Numerical results are presented for sample agro-forest stands, which show that, with underwood planting, the reservation price for timber harvesting will be higher than that in pure forest.     

The multiple effects of carbon values on optimal rotation

Non-consumptive benefits which increase with crop age, like keeping carbon sequestered, lengthen optimal rotation compared with rotation for timber alone. High proposed carbon prices may extend rotation indefinitely. Carbon storage in wood products reduces this tendency. Biomass as an energy source displacing fossil fuels favours rotations near those of maximum biomass productivity. Use of sawn timber to displace structural materials with high embodied carbon favours somewhat longer rotations. Effects of rotation on soil carbon, and fossil carbon volatilised in harvesting operations, are further complications. Including all carbon effects results in optimal rotations somewhat longer than those based only on timber value, but shorter than those based on timber plus forest carbon. To include all factors intuitively is not possible: balanced appraisal needs economic calculations.     

COMMERCIAL FORESTS IN SCOTLAND: AN ECONOMIC APPRAISAL OF REPLANTING

The economic returns from replanting commercial forests are estimated using an investment model which links physical resource information with economic data, including appropriate monetised values for the major non-market benefits such as recreation and carbon storage. The area and location of sites in Scotland which are uneconomic, i.e. forests, which if replanted with commercial crops, would fail to achieve the current government target rate of return of 6%, are identified. Depending on the values and assumptions used, between 12% (105,000 ha) and 48% (532,500 ha) of existing forests were found to be uneconomic. Because data on the water resource costs of commercial forests are not available and the higher biodiversity value of natural regeneration could not be included in the opportunity cost of land, these percentages are likely to be lower-bound estimates. On the grounds of economic efficiency, abandonment to natural regeneration is the most appropriate land use for these sites, but this might be considered undesirable because of land management considerations. Modified grant payments for natural regeneration under the Woodland Grant Scheme to ensure delivery of enhanced non-market benefits through judicious management and silviculture are suggested. Cautious implementation of this new policy is, however, recommended while further research on the physical suitability of sites for natural regeneration is carried out. More work is also needed to value the non-use benefits of different forest types.     

我国马铃薯生产格局变化特征及原因分析

[目的]在马铃薯主粮化战略提出和马铃薯产业需求快速增长的背景下,研究我国马铃薯生产、消费情况,剖析马铃薯生产格局变化特征及影响因素,为优化马铃薯生产布局提出建议。[方法]利用2000年以来全国及分省马铃薯生产、消费数据,通过统计描述和对比分析对马铃薯生产形势从总量特征和区域特征两方面进行分析,计算单产和种植面积贡献率,并且从成本收益角度对马铃薯生产格局变动及优化布局作出解释。[结果]我国马铃薯种植面积从2000年的472. 3万hm2增加到2015年的551. 8万hm2,马铃薯产量从2000年的1 325. 5万t增长至2015年的1 897. 2万t。在这个过程中,马铃薯生产集中度不断提高,区域布局进一步优化,其中西南混作区逐渐成为马铃薯优势产区。[结论]马铃薯生产格局的变化既有消费需求的拉动,也有国家产业政策的支持,另外收益驱动和资源比较优势的发挥也是推动马铃薯生产格局变化的重要原因。未来为进一步促进马铃薯生产的健康发展,应重点结合各区域环境资源优势进行区域规划、降低脱毒种薯成本并加大良种推广力度。     

南方集体林区木材供给行为研究

利用2000,2003,2005年福建省木材生产村级数据,通过Faustmann模型和Cobb-Douglas生产函数分析框架,考察市场化条件下林农木材生产经营决策行为,评价不同因素和政策可能的影响方向和效应。实证结果表明,价格、成本、资源状况、贴现率及林业政策均对木材的短期供给产生重要影响。政策方面,对林地制度改革的效果给予肯定,对限额采伐政策持怀疑态度,超限额砍伐现象的存在可能使其完全失去作用。     

Editorial - Multiple-use forestry

The problem of multiple-use forestry arises because (1) a forest can be managed to provide a wide range of products and services, (2) the different uses are not perfectly compatible with each other, and (3) some products are not priced in markets and many of the services a forest provides have the characteristics of public goods. Examples of major forest products include, in addition to timber, edible berries, fungi, and hunting games. Forests also provide recreation opportunities and various environmental services (such as regulating local climate, reducing soil erosion, reducing pollutants in the atmosphere, regulating the global climate, providing habitats for wildlife, etc.). The outputs of nontimber goods in general depend on the quantity and structure of the forest, which can be changed by various forest management activities. However, a forest state most suitable for the production of one good is usually not optimal with respect to another good. Typically, there does not exist a set of management activities that simultaneously maximize the outputs of timber and all other goods.Another way to understand the conflicts between different uses is to view standing timber as an intermediate product of forestry investment, which is employed as an “input” for the production of timber products and nontimber goods. Thinking in this way, the conflicts arise partly because timber production and nontimber uses compete for the same input, and partly because of the differences in the “production technology” among different nontimber goods. A change in the standing timber may have positive impacts on some nontimber uses, but have negative effects on others. Because of the conflicts among different uses, it requires that both timber products and nontimber goods should be explicitly incorporated into forestry decision-making in order to achieve the greatest benefits to the forest owner and/or the public.Most of the economic analyses of multiple-use forestry decisions have explicitly or implicitly adopted the view that multiple-use should be achieved in individual stands. Each stand should be managed to produce an optimal mix of timber products and nontimber goods. Another view of multiple-use forestry is to manage each stand for a primary use, whereas multiple-use concerns are addressed by allocating different stands in a forest to different uses. A general argument in support of the primary-use view is that specialization makes for efficiency. The production of timber and nontimber goods is a joint process, however. Strictly speaking, one cannot separate timber production and the production of different nontimber goods. For example, managing a stand for timber production does not exclude the possibility of producing some nontimber goods in the stand. Since every stand usually produces more than one product, efficient multiple-use forestry requires that each stand should be managed for an optimal mix of timber and nontimber outputs. On the other hand, it may well be the case that the optimal multiple-use mix for a particular stand consists of a maximum output of one product. In this case the optimal multiple-use management decision would coincide with the optimal decision pertaining to a single use. In other words, it may be optimal to manage a particular stand for one primary use. Using the terminology of economics, primary-use may be efficient for stands in which the multiple-use production set is nonconvex. Recent research has explored several sources of nonconvexity in the multiple-use production set. However, there is no evidence supporting the argument that specialization is always more efficient than multiple-use management of individual stands. From an economics viewpoint, efficient primary-use is special cases of multiple-use stand management.A widely recognized limitation of multiple-use stand management is that, by considering each stand separately, one neglects the interdependence of nontimber benefits and ecological interactions among individual stands. The nontimber benefits of a stand depend on the output of nontimber goods from other stands. Likewise, the nontimber output from one stand affects the value of nontimber goods produced in the other stands. Ecological interactions among individual stands imply that the output of nontimber goods from two stands in a forest differs from the sum of the outputs from two isolated stands. These interdependence and interactions imply that the relationship between the nontimber benefits of a stand and the stand age (or standing timber stock) cannot be unambiguously determined - it depends on the flow of nontimber goods produced in the surrounding stands. Therefore, it is improper to determine optimal decisions for the individual stands independently. In stead, efficient multiple-use forestry decision should be analyzed by considering all the stands in a forest simultaneously.Another serious limitation of multiple-use stand management is that each stand is treated as a homogenous management unit to be managed according to a uniform management regime. One implicitly assumes that the boundaries of each stand is exogenously given and will remain unchanged over time. This assumption imposes a restriction on the multiple-use production set, thereby creates inefficiency. As an example, consider a large stand with a nonconvex production set. It may be possible to eliminate nonconvexity in the production set and push the production possibility frontier outwards by dividing the stand into several parts and managing each part for a primary-use. It may also be efficient to combine two adjacent stands into one to be managed following a uniform regime, because of the presences of fixed management costs, and/or because the relationship between some nontimber outputs and stand area is not linear.In contrast to income from timber production, nontimber goods produced at different time points are not perfect substitutes. The rate at which a forest owner is willing to substitute a nontimber good produced at one time point for that produced at another time point changes with the outputs of the nontimber good at the two time points. In general cases, the nontimber goods produced at one time point cannot be consumed at another time point, and the marginal utility of a nontimber good decreases when its output increases. This provides a motivation for reducing the variation in the output of nontimber goods over time. An effective approach to coordinating nontimber outputs over time is to apply different management regimes to different parts of a stand, or apply the same regime to adjacent stands, which would change the boundaries of the stands. Preserving the existing stand boundaries would limit the possibility of evening out the nontimber outputs over time, and thereby lead to intertemporal inefficiency in multiple-use management.In previous studies of multiple-use forestry decisions the nontimber outputs or benefits are usually modeled as functions of stand age or standing timber stock. Future flows of nontimber goods or benefits are incorporated into a stand/forest harvest decision model to explore the implications of nontimber uses for optimal harvest decisions. While stand age and standing timber stock may have significant impacts on nontimber outputs, other forest state variables, e. g. the spatial distribution of stands of different ages/species, may be of great importance to the production of nontimber goods. Recognition of such forest state variables could change the relationship between timber production and nontimber outputs and therefore change the optimal forest management decisions.In summary, multiple-use forestry is not simply an extension of timber management with additional flows of benefits to be considered when evaluating alternative management regimes. Recognition of multiple uses of a forest leads to two fundamental changes of the forestry decision problem. First, the optimal intertemporal consumption of forestry income is no longer separable from forest management decisions. In general, the optimal intertemporal consumption of forestry income depends on future flows of nontimber goods, implying that the consumption-saving decision should be made simultaneously with the decision on the production of timber and nontimber goods over time. Secondly, it is no longer appropriate to optimize the management regime for each stand separately. The nontimber outputs from a forest depend on the age distribution of individual stands, and on a wide range of other forest state variables such as the spatial distribution of stands of different ages and tree-species composition. Ecological interactions and interdependence among stands imply that management regimes for different stands should be optimized simultaneously. In addition to changing rotation ages and harvest levels, efficient multiple-use forestry requires optimizing the spatial allocation of harvests, redefining the boundaries of stands, coordinating the choices of tree species in regeneration of harvested area and so on.The lack of rigorous production functions for nontimber goods imposes a severe restriction on attempts to perform comprehensive economic analyses of multiple-use forestry decisions. This restriction in itself is no justification for ignoring many of the key aspects of multiple-use forestry problem and modeling the problem as one of determining the optimal rotation age or optimal harvest level. It requires that economic models of multiple-use forestry should be developed with special consideration of the vague and imprecise information regarding the relationships between nontimber outputs and forest state variables.Peichen GongDepartment of Forest EconomicsSE-90183 UmeåSweden     

天水市中药材产业供给侧改革之路的思考

[目的]为解决中药材套种立体栽培模式不完善,土地资源利用不充分,植株空间分布不合理的问题,针对我市林缘区面积较大的实际,按照"调结构、保质量、降成本、补短板、创品牌"的总体要求,选择重楼、五味子、猪苓、天麻4种中药材,在中药材立体仿生栽培技术方面进行研究,以期实现天水市中药材由生产大市向产业强市转变,促进农业增效、农民增收。[方法]采取架上五味子,架下重楼,地下猪苓(天麻)的立体仿生种植模式,通过五味子、重楼、猪苓(天麻)立体仿生栽培技术能够实现了优势互补,提高了土地利用率,便于抚育管理,降低了生产经营成本,提高了劳动生产率,实现了同一地块空间资源利用,提高了单位面积的经济效益。[结果]通过5年试验,从产量角度看模式Ⅱ(五味子+重楼+天麻)最优,其次是模式Ⅲ(五味子+重楼+天麻+猪苓);从经济效益看模式Ⅰ(五味子+重楼+猪苓)最好,其次是模式Ⅲ。[结论]3种模式均较单种的收益有大幅度提高。     

Analysis of individual private forestry in northern Spain according to economic factors related to management

In addition to being motivated by profit, the management decisions taken by non-industrial private forest (NIPF) owners involve other considerations beyond timber, such as non-timber goods and services, as well as factors that affect the level of timber output from the land. Ensuring and improving forest profitability to make NIPF management viable is one of the main challenges faced by this type of landowner. This study empirically explores and assesses management by NIPF owners, through analysing attributes of forest economics (investment in holdings, expenditure on planting and silviculture, public subsidies, along with timber and non-timber incomes). With the aim of predicting outcomes, a multiple regression model was also constructed to investigate and quantify the relationship between socioeconomic and holding factors, and the planting activities carried out by NIPF owners. For this, 103 resident forest landowners in a forest region in northern Spain were interviewed in person, during March 2004, about their commitment to and involvement in land management during the period 1999–2003. The results mainly revealed that attractive forest returns and favourable market conditions for timber production are significant factors for investment in and development of forestry, with personal and family conditions also being important factors in explaining the type of land management carried out. In particular, the multiple linear regression model for forest planting activity correctly explained 84.5% of the variability observed in the study population, indicating that both the investments in and the incomes from forestry play an important role in the activity, as does the size of the holding. The findings may be of interest in promoting public measures related to timber markets and economic incentives for forest management, which will allow landowners to develop economically viable practices, as well as enabling fulfilment of social and environmental demands for sustainable forestry and rural development.     

全国苹果种植收益波动特征及其影响因素分析——基于1991～2014年苹果种植收益数据的实证分析

[目的]文章依据1991~2014年全国苹果种植成本收益的年度数据,在对苹果种植收益波动特征进行描述性分析的基础上,选取苹果单位面积净收益、 单位面积物质与服务费用、 单位面积产量和单位产品出售价格这些变量来研究对苹果种植收益的影响.[方法]通过构建VAR模型,并运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解来分析苹果种植收益的影响因素.[结果]苹果种植产值和净收益总体上呈上升的态势,成本利润率呈现出M型的波动趋向.苹果种植净利润的增长主要得益于产值的增加高于总成本的增加,而产值的增加又得益于苹果单产的提高和出售价格的上涨.单位产品出售价格对苹果种植净收益的影响最大,其次是单位面积产量和单位面积物质与服务费用.[结论]完善苹果价格形成机制,逐步实现苹果定价机制的市场化和定价水平的合理化;增强农业基础设施建设的投入,加强苹果种植综合生产的能力;抑制农资成本和价格的过快增长,降低种植成本是增加苹果种植净收益的重要手段.     

农户粮食种植决策影响因素研究——基于河北省农村固定观察点数据

文章基于河北省固定观察点数据,应用Nerlove模型,实证分析了影响农户粮食种植决策的主要因素,从微观角度探讨了粮食的供给反应。研究结果表明:粮食作物上期出售价格对粮食种植面积的影响非常显著,玉米价格弹性比小麦更大、更敏感,长期价格弹性相比短期会有所增加。从其他影响显著的变量来看,农户种植习惯(粮食上期种植面积)对作物种植决策影响非常显著,农户的种植决策还会受到粮食投入成本、自有耕地面积和粮食作物收入的影响,这些变量说明农户在粮食种植决策时所考虑的因素比较全面,既受种植习惯和投入成本影响,又有对资源禀赋和比较收益的考虑,农户的生产行为并不是完全盲从于农产品价格的变化,农户家庭收入对粮食收入的依赖性也是其重要的考虑因素。基于此,该研究提出了稳定粮食价格、提高农户粮食种植积极性保障粮食安全等相关政策建议。