Does fertilizer use respond to rainfall variability? Panel data evidence from Ethiopia

In this article, we use farmers' actual experiences with changes in rainfall levels and their responses to these changes to assess whether patterns of fertilizer use are responsive to changes in rainfall patterns. Using panel data from the Central Highlands of Ethiopia matched with corresponding village‐level rainfall data, the results show that the intensity of current year's fertilizer use is positively associated with higher rainfall levels experienced in the previous year. Rainfall variability, on the other hand, impacts fertilizer use decisions negatively, implying that variability raises the risks and uncertainty associated with fertilizer use. Abundant rainfall in the previous year could depict relaxed liquidity constraints and increased affordability of fertilizer, which makes rainfall availability critical in severely credit‐constrained environments. In light of similar existing literature, the major contribution of the study is that it uses panel data to explicitly examine farmers' responses to actual weather changes and variability.     

Soil and Moisture Management in Mali: A Case Study Analysis for West Africa

In order for farmers to accept improved soil and water management practices, new technologies must be appropriate to the specific site conditions found in the farm setting and be consistent with farmers' objectives and available resources. A whole-farm modeling analysis of this problem is described. Preliminary estimates of the benefits of increased soil moisture conservation for representative low-resource farmers in Mali are presented. If farmers could improve rainfall infiltration from currently low rates of about 40% up to 60%, and use small amounts of chemical fertilizers, disposable income could increase two to four times depending on rainfall. Income could be increased another 50% if the infiltration rate was raised to 80%. Food grain production could increase 60 to 90% with improved moisture conservation and fertilizer use.     

Water policy reform in Australia: lessons from the Victorian seasonal water market*

The nature of the seasonal water market is examined using a theoretical model and empirical evidence from the Victorian market. Drivers of the seasonal opportunity cost of water include the underlying nature of investment in the industry made in the context of risky entitlement yields; and the timing and nature of information regarding seasonal water availability and rainfall. Seasonal water markets facilitate the re‐allocation of water availability according to this short‐run opportunity cost. Evidence from the market suggests that transactions costs are low and most of the existing constraints to trade in seasonal allocations are the result of hydrological conditions. Analysis of market data suggests that the price response of the market to water availability is much more pronounced in years of low rainfall. The implications of the paper for wider policy reform are that attention should be paid to improving property rights for the management of intertemporal risk before other reforms, such as broadening of permanent water markets and institutionalising environmental flows, are implemented. This is because these other reforms will change the spatial and temporal pattern of water use and thus affect reliability, which underpins the value of water in irrigated agriculture.     

Production technologies in Ethiopian agriculture

This article examines the characteristics of and choice among two production technologies in Ethiopian agriculture, one with fertilizer and the other without, using 1989–90 farm-level data. For northwest and central Ethiopia, fertilizer usage determinants are estimated simultaneously with technology-specific production functions. For southern Ethiopia, where fertilizer is rarely used, a single production function is estimated. Three conclusions emerge. First, fertilizer use is not significantly affected by a farm's stocks of capital or land. This is consistent with the fact that fertilizer allocation decisions under the deposed Mengistu regime were politicized to the point where farmers had little control over use. Second, fertilizer is associated with a smaller factor share for cattle and a larger share for land, meaning that those who control land may gain relative to the individual farmers who own cattle as the country develops agriculturally. Third, farms without fertilizer in northwest and central Ethiopia tend to be too small, a problem due to population pressures on the land and communal methods of land allocation. This suggests that land allocation institutions should adjust by distributing land to a smaller but more economically viable number of farmers.     

Factors influencing the profitability of fertilizer use on maize in Zambia

Fertilizer use remains very low in most of Africa despite widespread agreement that much higher use rates are required for sustained agricultural productivity growth. This study uses longitudinal farm survey data to estimate maize yield response functions in a relatively high-potential zone of Zambia to determine the profitability of fertilizer use under a range of small-farm conditions found within this zone. The theoretical framework used in this study incorporates agronomic principles of the crop growth process. We generalize the asymmetric production models and define a concept of yield scaling factors. The model distinguishes different roles of inputs and non-input factors in crop production. We estimate the effects of conventional production inputs as well as of household characteristics and government programs on maize yield. The results indicate that recommended fertilizer application rates in the two specific years were often unprofitable, given observed price conditions and the yield response to fertilizer. However, there was substantial variability in yield response to fertilizer based upon the rate of application, the timeliness of fertilizer availability, the use of animal draught power during land preparation, and whether the household incurred the death of an adult member in the past three years. These modifying factors, as well as variations in input and output prices due to proximity to roads and markets, substantially affected the profitability of fertilizer use on maize.     

Acreage Response In Ontario*

Acreage response functions for Ontario shelled corn, fodder corn. oats, barley, soybeans, mixed grain and winter wheat are presented. The acreage response functions are estimated using data from 1945 to 1971. The estimated equations are used to predict acreage in 1972 and 1973. In general, the acreage response of Ontario crops tends to be very elastic with respect to lagged price and yields. Le rendement par acre en Ontario dans la culture du mais àécosser, du mats de fourrage, de I'avoine, de I'orge, du soja, du blé d'automme, et des grains mélangés est présenté. Le rendement par acre est calculé de données des années 1945 à 1971. Les calculs servent à prédire le rendement par acre pour les années 1972 et 1973. En général, le rendement par acre des récoltes Ontariennes semble étre très élastique par rapport aux rendements et des prix antérieurs.     

Pesticide productivity,host-plant resistance and productivity in China

Pesticides are used as the primary method of pest controf in Asian rice production. Conditions in China have led to demand for high and increasing rice yields, resulting in intensive cultivation and adoption of fertilizer responsive varieties. The consequence has been widespread pest infestations. Many studies have estimated pesticide productivity, but few have estimated the productivity of alternative methods ot pest control, namely host-plant resistance. None have estimated the substitutability between these methods of pest-control. The productivity of pesticides and host-plant resistance, and the substitutability between them is measured using two-stage Cobb-Douglas and translog production functions. Under intensive rice production systems in eastern China, pesticide productivity is low compared to the productivity of host-plant resistance. In fact, returns to pesticide use are negative at the margin. Host-plant resistance is an effective substitute for pesticides and substantial reductions in pesticide use could be achieved, with no loss in rice production, through improvements in host-plant resistance. These results suggest that pesticides are being overused in eastern China and host-plant resistance is being underutilized. Government policies to promote increased pesticides in rice might be ill advised given the low productivity and negative returns, particularly in light of well known negative externalities associated with pesticide use.     

Modelling stochastic crop response to fertilisation when carry-over matters

Soils in a large part of Niger's agricultural area are sandy and very low in nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and organic matter. This low soil fertility combined with low and erratic rainfall constitutes a severe constraint on food cropping in the area. Although agronomists have advised chemical fertilization as a means of improving soil fertility, little fertilizer has been used in this area of the world. The economic management of soil fertility in the agricultural area of Niger is analyzed using a dynamic model of farmer decision-making under uncertainty. The model is based on agronomic principles of plant growth and accounts for the carry over of P, an immobile nutrient. At current input prices, a soil P content of at least 14 ppm is found to be desirable. This target is above the natural soil fertility level of about 3 ppm. It can be maintained with a moderate annual application (12 kg P₂O₅ ha^?1) of simple superphosphate. Results also suggests that returns to N fertilization are too low and variable to warrant the use of this input.     

Stochastic dominance analysis of on-farm-trial data: The riskiness of alternative phosphate sources in Burkina Faso

Stochastic dominance was used to determine the risk characteristics of phosphate fertilization of millet, sorghum and maize with commercial NPK fertilizer, rock phosphate and partially acidulated rock phosphate in Burkina Faso. On-farm-trial data from 1989, 1990 and 1991 in three rainfall zones was used. The analysis shows that among the four treatments tested, commercial NPK fertilizer has the most desirable risk characteristics. It is acceptable to risk averse decision makers for all three crops in all rainfall zones. The no-fertilizer control is dominated by the fertilizer treatments. The rock phosphate treatments have higher yields and in certain cases higher returns than the no fertilizer control, but those benefits are less sure than for the soluble commercial fertilizer. The distributions of cash returns to rock phosphate treatments are rarely significantly different from those of the control. Rock phosphate treatments never dominate the commercial fertilizer treatment. If farmers have a choice between commercial fertilizer, rock phosphate and partially acidulated rock phosphate, at current prices most of those who use fertilizer would choose the soluble commercial product. If the availability of commercial fertilizer were limited (e.g. by lack of hard currency), some farmers would use rock phosphate—especially the partially acidulated product. Stochastic dominance permitted a timely and detailed analysis of risk inherent in phosphate fertilizer alternatives. Because on-farm-trails involve a modest number of alternatives, pairwise stochastic dominance comparisons are feasible. The stochastic dominance analysis permits researchers to communicate to extension staff and policymakers not only the degree of risk, but also something about the characteristics of the crop response that contribute to risk. The key to effective use of stochastic dominance is careful study of the distributions and understanding why a technology is dominated or is potentially acceptable to risk averse decisionmakers.     

Factors explaining the low and variable profitability of fertilizer application to maize in Zambia

It is widely recognized that an “African green revolution” will require greater use of inorganic fertilizers. Often‐made comparisons note that fertilizer use rates in Africa are just 10–20% of those in Asia, Europe and the Americas. Most attempts to explain relatively low‐adoption of fertilizer assume yield responses to inorganic fertilization warrant higher application rates and hypothesize that observed use rates are limited by market‐based factors. Another explanation may be that application rates are low because African yields are less responsive to inorganic fertilizer than yields in other regions, and less responsive than analysts perceive. Examining the case of Zambia, we evaluate whether yield response to fertilizers could explain adoption and application rates. A model of yield response is constructed and a combination of estimators is employed to mitigate potential biases related to correlation between fertilizer use and unobserved heterogeneity as well as stochastic shocks. Results indicate higher fertilization rates would be marginally profitable or unprofitable in many cases given commercial fertilizer and maize prices. Phosphoric fertilizer is particularly unprofitable on acidic soils, which are common in Zambia and other areas of sub‐Saharan Africa. We propose feasible recommendations for diversifying the current government strategy to enhance crop productivity.     

Does crop insurance influence agrochemical uses under current Chinese situations? A case study in the Manasi watershed,Xinjiang

Government subsidy to crop insurance has been advocated as a policy alternative to support growth of agricultural production and farmers' income in China since the country joined the WTO. However, cautions have been raised as the crop insurance program may impact the environment negatively. This study tries to explore farmers' behaviors with regard to agrochemical use with household data applied to a simultaneous equation system consisting of disaggregated input models. It is found that decisions on fertilizer, pesticides, and agro‐film applications do have different impacts on crop insurance participation, and are influenced by the latter in different ways. It is also implied that encouraging farmers' participation in crop insurance under current low‐premium and low‐indemnity terms does not have a significantly negative impact on the environment.     

Returns from research in economies with policy distortions: hybrid sorghum in Sudan

Conventional estimates of the economic return to agricultural research use market prices for the values of products and inputs; on this basis, economic rates of return are typically well above the cost of capital, suggesting that more investment in research would be socially desirable. But these estimates may be incorrect if, as is often the case, market prices are distorted by market failures or government policies and hence do not reflect social values. This paper presents a simple, partial-equilibrium methodology with which to improve the measurement of social returns to research by taking account of multiple distortions in the market prices of products, inputs and foreign exchange. The method also takes account of variation in domestic and world prices, making a product tradable in some years and nontradable in others. The method is applied to the case of Hageen-Dura 1 (HD-1), Sub-Saharan Africa's first commercially successful hybrid sorghum. HD-1 was released in the Sudan in 1983. From the start of research in 1979 to 1992, the HD-1 breeding program had an estimated IRR of 97% when all major policies in the sorghum market, the fertilizer market, and the exchange rate are taken into account. The high rate of return to HD-1 research was due to the program's low cost and rapid payoff, pointing to the potential value of small adaptive research programs, taking full advantage of foreign technology and genetic material to produce locally-appropriate crosses in a short period of time. Even in the highly distorted economies of Africa, such programs can yield very high payoffs.     

我国大麦价格波动特征及其影响因素分析

[目的]大麦价格剧烈波动会直接影响大麦种植户的生产积极性和大麦产业的平稳发展,研究大麦价格波动特征及其影响因素,有助于提升大麦产业链相关主体识别和应对市场风险的能力,促进大麦产业的健康发展。[方法]文章先采用HP滤波法和ARCH类模型分析了2011年4月至2017年2月我国大麦价格波动特征,然后采用脉冲响应函数分析了我国大麦价格波动影响因素。[结果]我国大麦价格波动存在明显的季节性和周期性,样本期内总体上呈现逐渐下降趋势;我国大麦价格具有显著的波动集聚性,我国大麦价格具有显著的不对称性;在该文选择的影响因素中,大麦进口量和国际大麦价格是影响我国大麦价格波动的主要因素。[结论]该文提出必须保障并提高国内大麦合理产能、完善大麦价格监测预警体系、加强国内大麦进口企业整合和推动大麦进口来源多元化的政策建议。     

基于化肥减量化管理的农业清洁生产多方联动机制框架研究

[目的]化肥减量增效是实现农业可持续发展的关键举措和优先任务,文章首先基于环境经济学的外部性理论分析与国内外研究现状综述,提出了新形势下基于利益相关方的视角开展化肥减量化管理多方联动机制研究的必要性。[方法]为构建有效的多方联动机制,需要全面了解利益相关方参与化肥减量化管理的现状与主要问题,该文实地调研了普通农户、新型经营主体的耕地保护意识、地力改善意识、清洁生产支付意愿和对政府的主要利益诉求并对其做了对比分析,同时通过关键人物访谈了解基层农技部门、有机肥生产企业在化肥减量过程中面临的主要困难。[结果]构建了化肥减量化管理多方联动机制框架,具体包括肥料生产与使用监管机制、耕地保护责任追究机制、化肥减量化技术推广机制、农业清洁生产补贴机制和绿色农产品消费引导机制等。[结论]结合当前农业供给侧结构性改革的政策背景,强调通过综合运用规范性、激励性和市场性政策工具和手段,建立有效的化肥减量化管理多方联动机制是实现化肥减量增效和农业可持续发展的必然要求。此外,该文补充强调了当前化肥减量应坚持用地、养地相结合,化肥、有机肥配合使用,在保持和改善当前地力水平的前提下,通过提质增效来确保粮食安全、农民增收。     

Growth of milk production in German dairy farms: an empirical study based on event history analysis

This article investigates determinants of growth of milk production in German dairy farms with the use of event history analysis. This methodology enables the analysts to consider time as a proxy for not measurable effects on growth. The likelihood of a farm's moving from a nongrowth episode into a growth episode is estimated and the impact of various covariates on that likelihood is assessed. The analysis is based upon a balanced panel of annual farm accounts from 616 specialized dairy farms in Germany, covering the financial years 1995/1996–2008/2009. The results from event history analyses are presented for low and high growth rates. For both groups, it was found that the probability of entering a growth episode, defined as the event to be analyzed, increases over time, e.g., as a consequence of an increasing need to improve competitiveness. Moreover, several covariates, such as the share of subsidies in returns, farmer's age, and milk price, had a significant impact on growth in a farm's milk production. The analysis revealed, however, that the effect‐direction of some explanatory variables differed between the two groups.     

Toward farm-based policy analysis: concepts applied in Haiti

Many policies – on the delivery of inputs or on marketing systems, credit, or extension – influence the potential utilization of new technologies. Through 'farm-based policy analysis' it is possible to use data generated in on-farm research (OFR) to identify policy constraints to the use of new technologies, and to effectively communicate that information to policy makers. This paper describes a tentative framework for farm-based policy analysis and suggests a sequence of five steps for the analysis: (1) identify the policy-induced constraints; (2) determine the rationale behind the policy; (3) identify the decision makers to whom the results should be communicated; (4) identify solutions or policy options; and (5) communicate results to decision makers. A case of farm-based policy analysis from Haiti illustrates the concepts and methods described in the first part of the paper. On-farm experiments in Les Cayes, Haiti, confirmed a response to nitrogen in maize, but adoption of the recommended practice and consequent gains in productivity and income were constrained by the scarcity of urea in the local market. An analysis of local supply and potential local demand for urea and the potential benefits of urea application was conducted, and results communicated to two target groups of decision makers: representatives of the Ministry of Agriculture responsible for fertilizer distribution policy, and representatives of private fertilizer enterprises. These groups responded by making larger supplies of urea available to local farmers. Adoption of the fertilizer recommendation and urea sales increased. The case demonstrates the potential value of farm-based policy analysis building upon data from OFR.     

农户减少化肥用量和采用有机肥的意愿研究——基于洱海流域上游面源污染防控的视角

[目的]过量施用化肥导致水体富营养化是造成洱海流域上游面源污染的主要原因之一,调查分析农户减少化肥用量和采用有机肥的意愿有助于了解其调整施肥结构的行为。当前研究忽视了农户减少化肥施用强度和采用有机肥的意愿间的替代性,未能开展联立研究。[方法]基于洱海流域上游397个水稻种植户的问卷调查数据,通过Bivariate-Probit模型对农户减少化肥用量和采用有机肥两种意愿进行分析。[结果]年龄负向影响农户减少化肥量的意愿,农户对有机肥好处的认知正向影响其减少化肥量的意愿,农户参加农业社会化服务对其减少化肥用量和采用有机肥的意愿均产生正向影响,相比之下,对农户采用有机肥意愿的促进作用更大。[结论]引导农户参加农业社会化服务以及加强宣传和培训,提高农户对有机肥作用的认知可能是加强其减少化肥用量和增加有机肥施用量意愿的有效途径。     

Fertilizer Use, Risk, and Off-Farm Labor Markets in the Semi-Arid Tropics of India

A two-period model is developed in which a risk-averse farmer uses off-farm labor to smooth consumption, leading to greater use of fertilizer. Fertilizer demand is shown to increase with the depth of the off-farm labor market. Controlling for exogenous weather risk, farmers use more fertilizer the lower the unemployment rate and the higher the share of nonagricultural work in total off-farm labor. The results suggest that off-farm labor markets and own-farm production may be complementary in risky production environments, so that policies which promote the depth of the off-farm labor market in low-income areas may also bolster farm productivity.     

MALLEE WHEAT FARMERS' DEMAND FOR CROP AND RAINFALL INSURANCE

Producers' demand for a crop insurance program with indemnities based on their actual yields and a rainfall insurance program with indemnities based on area rainfall is analysed. Actuarial costs of these hypothetical programs are estimated. Tobit procedures are used to analyse factors influencing the amount which farmers would be willing to pay for the alternative insurance programs. Factors related to the absolute size of risk and capacity to bear risk, as well as personal characteristics and risk attitudes of producers, have effects on the demand for insurance as hypothesised. Problems of adverse selection are associated with the area yield-based program, while both crop and rainfall insurance programs may involve some moral hazard. Producer participation in either program would be limited.     

Productivity,credit, risk,and the demand for weather index insurance in smallholder agriculture in Ethiopia

The article explores the relationship between fertilizer use and the demand for weather index insurance (WII) among smallholder farmers in Ethiopia. We examine whether fertilizer use is profitable under current smallholder production conditions, whether risk‐related factors affect fertilizer use, and we estimate the returns to inputs in the agricultural production function in the absence of insurance. We then study how these primitives of agricultural production functions relate to insurance demand. The study compares a survey‐based estimate of willingness to pay with actual uptake for the weather insurance, finding the stated and actual demand to be almost completely uncorrelated. While those with high marginal returns to inputs say they would purchase insurance, only those with low marginal returns actually do, consistent with the stated purpose of the product as input insurance. Insurance demand proves to be highly responsive to the existence and amount of randomly allocated insurance vouchers.