我国“新四化”目标下的农村发展研究

我国城乡二元经济结构特征鲜明,农村和城市之间由于基础设施、发展条件、社会保障等方面的差异,导致发展水平悬殊,农村发展问题成为我国发展中的难题。文章利用二元经济结构理论分析发现,我国二元经济向一元转化中存在工业化发展缓慢、人口流转体制障碍、农村人力资源开发不足、农业发展落后等障碍。"新四化"目标提出为我国社会经济发展指明了方向,也为我国农村发展带来了机遇。在这一目标的引领下,应通过破解户籍制度瓶颈,加快土地流转改革,加快农村人力资源开发,促进农村剩余劳动力非农化转化,减轻农村土地承载压力;通过加快农村基础设施建设,发展农村信息化,推动农业现代化发展,增强农业发展基础,提高农民收入,提升农村发展质量;努力消除城乡二元结构,促进城乡融合,解决我国农村发展的难题。     

The puzzle of migrant labour shortage and rural labour surplus in China

The paper examines the contentious issue of the extent of surplus labour that remains in China. China was an extreme example of a surplus labour economy, but the rapid economic growth during the period of economic reform requires a reassessment of whether the second stage of the Lewis model has been reached or is imminent. The literature is inconclusive. On the one hand, there are reports of migrant labour scarcity and rising migrant wages; on the other hand, estimates suggest that a considerable pool of relatively unskilled labour is still available in the rural sector. Yet the answer has far-reaching developmental and distributional implications. After reviewing the literature, the paper uses the 2002 and 2007 national household surveys of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences to analyse and explain migrant wage behaviour, to predict the determinants of migration, and to examine the size and nature of the pool of potential rural–urban migrants. An attempt is also made to project the rural and urban labour force and migration forward to 2020, on the basis of the 2005 1% Population Survey. The paper concludes that for institutional reasons both phenomena are likely to coexist at present and for some time in the future.     

新农村建设与农民非农转移冲突的制度反思

建设新农村的关键路径是扎实推进和顺利完成农村剩余劳动力的非农转移,但是当新农村建设有效提高了农民财产性收益与公共服务性收益时,农民非农转移的成本将会大大提高,从而延缓劳动力转移进程。本文在托达罗模型的基础上引入制度变量,分析了新农村建设与农民非农转移冲突的根源,并提出一些改革设想。     

农村劳动力回流、就业选择与农地转出——基于千村调查的经验研究

农村劳动力回流趋势增强,不可避免对农地流转产生影响。文章在理论层面深入剖析了回流劳动力的就业选择与农地转出关系,并采用上海财经大学"千村调查"的数据资料,实证检验了农村劳动力回流特征变化和回流劳动力就业选择对农地转出的影响。研究发现,受非农就业不稳定的推力作用和与家人团聚的拉力作用,越来越多的外出劳动力选择回流,西部外出劳动力回流率最高,达到47.2%。回流劳动力的农地转出率普遍高于非回流劳动力的农地转出率,回流劳动力从事非农生产的就业选择对农地转出存在促进效应,而兼业和务农的选择对农地转出存在抑制效应,这意味着回流农村劳动力并非一定会选择农业生产,也可能选择在更小的地理半径内从事非农就业,并且长期外出从事技术工的经历进一步增强了劳动力回流对农地转出的抑制效应。虽然回流劳动力更倾向非农就业,但回流劳动力规模的扩大,使得兼业和纯务农的比例增加,对农地转出的抑制效应呈增强趋势。研究还发现,个人特征、家庭因素、社会网络也是影响劳动力就业选择和农地转出的重要因素,基层政府和地方政府在推动非农就业的政策合力上存在部分抵消,对农地转出产生了抑制作用。文章为农地流转进程缓慢提供了新的解释,推进农地流转需要关注农村劳动力流动特征新变化,同时兼顾各层级政策目标的衔接性。     

Has China run out of surplus labour?

Many recent studies claim that China has reached a Lewisian ‘turning point’ in economic development, signalled by rising wages in urban areas and the exhaustion of rural surplus labour. In this paper we show that despite some evidence of rising nominal urban unskilled wages between 2000 and 2009, there is little in the data to suggest that this wage increase has been caused by unskilled labour shortages. China still has abundant under-employed workers with very low income in the rural sector. We argue that China's unique institutional and policy-induced barriers to migration have both prevented many rural workers from migrating to cities and also reduced the migrants' length of stay. We project that under alternative institutional settings, the migrant stock could easily be doubled from the current 150 million to 300 million by increasing either the average length of migrant stay, or the migrant inflow, or both.     

构建新型工农城乡关系:从打开城门到开放村庄

制度是解构工农城乡关系生成及演化规律的关键。从人民公社体制到家庭承包制的制度变迁,由集体经营变革为家庭经营,释放出大量农业剩余劳动力。财政包干制度促进乡镇企业蓬勃发展,农业劳动力就近就地转移进入非农产业。随后的分税制则激发工业化与城市开发热情高涨,大量农业用地被征收为国有用地,也促使农业劳动力由农村地区转向工业与商业聚集的城市,但在户籍制度的约束下,进城务工的农村居民难以获得市民化的身份认同,人户分离成为普遍现象。制度问题的根源在于以城市为中心的发展逻辑,造成生产和生活要素向城市单向流动和集中,从而形成城乡分割、引发城乡关系扭曲与不可持续问题。打破以城市为中心的发展格局、构建新型工农城乡关系的策略在于：打开村门,以农村土地制度变革为突破口;反哺乡村,以城乡融合推进农业高质量发展;缓解约束,以开放村庄引导主体与要素进村;构建载体,以县域经济发展融入城市价值链。     

Agricultural labour and the incidence of surplus labour: experience from China during reform

This paper contributes to the pool of studies of rural underemployment and revisits a number of estimates of surplus agricultural labour in China. The study is devoted to the conceptualization, identification and measurement of surplus at regional, provincial and national levels by a stochastic frontier functional specification. The analysis indicates that the existing size of agricultural surplus labour is still significantly large with the continued practice of the household registration system and China's WTO membership.     

社会资本、农地流转与农户消费扩张

中国农户消费转型升级引发各方关注,但鲜有从社会资本的视角探讨农地流转对农户消费的影响及其微观作用机理。文章在理论层面分析了农地流转通过影响农户生计资本变动和生计策略调整对农户消费的传导机制,并基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)三期面板数据,定量评估了农地流转对农户消费影响的社会资本效应。结果表明:(1)我国农户消费基尼系数总体呈缩窄趋势,但农地转出农户相比农地转入农户具有更高的人均消费支出及消费不均等程度;(2)农地流转能够影响农户关键自然资本改变和生计策略调整,从而显著提高农户消费水平,且参与农地流转农户相比未参与农地流转农户具有更高的消费动机;(3)社会资本在农户农地转入和转出过程中对农户消费存在微观中介效应,即社会资本越高的农户参与农地流转的概率越大,且能够通过提高农地转出户非农就业机会和扩大其多元化收入来源,间接提升农户消费水平。在精准扶贫和乡村振兴战略协同背景下,应积极有序推进农地适度规模经营,促进农地转出户非农就业,并强化农户社会资本建设,提高农户多元化收入,从而全面助推农村消费转型升级。     

Trading Land Development Rights under a Planned Land Use System： The ＂Zhejiang Model＂

China＇ s state planned land use system, including regulations such as setting planned quotas for land use, basic cropland preservation, and pursuing a balance between the conversion of arable land into non-agricultural use and the supplement of new agricultural land, has substantially constrained the economic growth of industrial provinces in China. This article explores the innovative reforms adopted by Zhejiang Province through land development rights （LDR） transfer within a locality and LDR trading across localities. We argue that there is a ＂Zhejiang model of LDR transferring and trading,＂ which, we believe, has significant implications not only for fostering an efficiency-enhancing market for land development rights and agricultural land preservation, but also for optimal use of land and a more balanced regional development. One important policy issue relating to China＇s rural land system is that under China＇ s land requisition system, farmers are usually under compensated for urban land-taking.     

Surplus agricultural labour and China's Lewis turning point

Official data are criticized for over-reported agricultural labour statistics. We derive an alternative series of labour participated in agriculture with the information of production cost and revenue. Using parametric stochastic frontier approach, labour requirement functions are estimated for 30 farm and animal husbandry products in rural China. The estimated required amount of labour is compared with our newly-derived observed agricultural labour to obtain the surplus labour. This surplus ranges from 18% to 12% of agricultural labour between 2001 and 2013. Our results reveal that China was relatively successful in reducing redundant labour in rice production. Equally important, the trends of our estimated surplus place China in the second stage of transition under the Lewis-Fei-Ranis framework, moving in the direction of full commercialization or the so-called Lewis turning point.     

黑龙江省农村劳动力转移的动因、制约因素与发展趋势

采用实证分析方法讨论了黑龙江省农村劳动力转移的动因、制约因素与发展趋势,认为在未来,我国农村劳动力转移的总趋势必然更加顺畅,将实现从农业向非农产业转移,从农村向城市转移,随着现代农业分工水平的进一步提高,还会出现农业和农村内部的劳动力转移,但也面临着农业、农村空壳化现象,威胁粮食安全。受国际金融危机影响,作为劳务输出大省的黑龙江,农民转移就业也受到影响。但挑战与机遇同在。     

我国农村新型合作经济组织发展的研究

合作组织在我国有近百年的发展历史,也形成了自己的特色。近些年来,一些地区农民自发组织起来,兴办各种类型的农村新型合作经济组织,对促进农业生产力的发展和农民持续增收以及转移农村剩余劳动力等都起到积极作用。文章论述了农村新型合作经济组织的模式、特点及需要注意的问题,提出了发展农村新型合作经济组织的一些具体对策。     

劳动力转移与贵州新农村建设

转移农村剩余劳动力,是新农村建设的必然要求、重要内容和手段。把农村劳动力转移到非农产业就业,能促进农民增收和农村劳动力素质提高,有利于改善城乡人口和资源配置,为农业和农村发展提供基本条件。劳动力转移也带来了农业生产停滞和老人赡养、儿童教育等社会问题。贵州在开展农村劳动力转移的过程中,要坚持以本地就业为主导的思路,统筹城乡发展,积极探索适合贵州工业化和城市化道路,使新农村建设和城市建设共同发展,共同繁荣。     

Rural-to-urban migration in China

"One consequence of economic reform in China has been the greatly accelerated migration of labour from rural areas to cities. Estimates suggest an annual migrant labour flow of around 50-60 million people, of whom 10-15 million have settled permanently in cities. This article surveys the information that has become available from a number of population and labour surveys. It covers the volume, spatial and temporal dimension of rural-to-urban migration, the characteristics of migrant labourers, the determinants of migration and the impact of migration on China's rural and urban economy."     

农村富余劳动力的有序转移：重庆调查

农村富余劳动力的转移是破解"三农"问题、实现城乡统筹发展的有效途径。对重庆的调研表明,长期以来形成的城乡分割的二元结构、农村劳动力就业素质偏低和现行的土地营理政策等是制约农村富余劳动力有序转移的重要因素。加快农村富余劳动力有序转移,促进城乡统筹发展,应采取完善农民工外出就业制度、加强农村劳动力转移就业职业技能培训、健全土地管理政策和现行土地流转制度、加大农村基础设施投入、促进县域经济和小城镇发展以及完善政府行政管理体制等方面的保障措施。     

工业化进程中的农业剩余劳动力转移——基于我国工业化资本排斥劳动的经验分析

二元经济理论是早期发展经济学的一个重要理论,它指出将传统农业部门的剩余劳动力向现代工业部门转移,不仅可以解决很多剩余劳动力的就业和增加这部分劳动力的收入,而且可以增加现代工业部门的产出和积累。反过来,现代工业部门的不断增长使之能吸收更多农业剩余劳动力。然而,我国农业剩余劳动力的转移却没有按照刘易斯过程一帆风顺的发展,而是表现了转移的艰难,目前我国还存在大量的农业剩余劳动力。针对这一现象,本文从我国工业化进程角度探索了它对我国农业剩余劳动力转移的影响,并认为目前的工业化进程并不十分有利于农业剩余劳动力转移,而是表现了资本排斥劳动的趋势。因此,本文认为在短期内用“两条腿走路”仍是解决我国农业剩余劳力就业问题的基本思路。     

中部地区农村富余劳动力"就地转移"模式研究

中部地区是我国“二元经济”结构较为突出的区域,大量农村富余劳动力需要转移。本文通过分析中部地区农村劳动力转移面临的困境和区域经济特点,提出了通过农村城镇化、工业化、农业产业化、农民工返乡创业等途径实现中部地区富余劳动力“就地转移”模式。     

论农村剩余劳动力转移中的企业社会责任

企业作为吸纳农村剩余劳动力的主力军,增强企业社会责任对解决农村剩余劳动力转移问题具有重要意义。文章认为,解决农村剩余劳动力转移问题除了要通过增强企业履行社会责任的能力,提高农民工的组织化程度,建立以政府为主导的企业社会责任监督管理机制,强化农民工的维权意识和发挥社会舆论监督作用等措施增强企业社会责任外,还必须妥善处理好政府、企业和农民工三者的关系。     

我国农村劳动力转移的宏观调控法保护——基于促进现代农业可持续发展视角

我国是传统农业大国,农村人口众多,在发展现代农业、建设新农村过程中,农村人口的就业问题就显得尤其重要。而农村劳动力转移是我国现代农业可持续发展和农村人口就业的重要渠道,是建设现代农业的必由之路。然而,我国农村劳动力转移并不顺畅,制度因素是其主要根源,因此,在社会主义市场经济和法治社会下,宏观调控法规制是我国农村劳动力转移的基本制度保障。     

劳动力转移对农业农村的影响研究——以浙江省台州市黄岩区为例

农村劳动力的转移,对促进农民收入的增长、农村经济的发展,起到积极的作用,是农村实现小康的重要途径之一。搞好浙江省台州市黄岩区剩余劳动力转移应做好以下几点：加快农村城镇化建设;搞好农村教育和职业培训;积极推进农业经济结构调整;大力发展农村第三产业;建立完善的劳动力市场;健全组织,搞好服务。