TIME AND THE COST OF CHILDREN

This paper uses the "adult goods" method to estimate the full costs of children. Full costs include both expenditure and time costs. Adult personal time (comprising pure leisure, sleep and other personal care) is used as the adult good. Previous research has shown that the presence of children in the household leads to a reduction in adult personal time. This paper develops a simple economic model of the household to show how this information can be used to develop an equivalence scale for adult consumption that takes account of both the expenditure and time costs of children. Preliminary estimates using Australian data suggest a very large cost—much higher than that typically assumed for expenditure costs. The full cost of children declines with age, despite the expenditure cost rising. The paper discusses the limitations of the adult good method and the assumptions needed to draw welfare conclusions from these and other estimates of child costs.     

REGIONAL SOCIAL ACCOUNTS FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM1

Estimates of gross domestic product have been produced by various writers or agencies for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, and for Wales there are estimates of expenditure also; but only a very tentative attempt has hitherto been made at estimates for the English regions, mainly because the data present difficulties. In the present investigation, in which the estimates in the Bluebook on National Income and Expenditure are partitioned between regions, item by item, a production method was first explored, but this was replaced by use of Inland Revenue data on employment and self-employment income, and production and miscellaneous sources on profits etc. Estimates of expenditure raise particular difficulties in regard to private capital formation and, for different reasons, some parts of public current expenditure. The estimates have been used to throw light on interregional variations in income produced per head and earnings per head, and their relation to activity rates and industrial structure. The flows of property income, and of public transfers of purchasing-power and benefits between regions are also explored, along with regional current balances and evidence bearing on differences in pressure of demand. Finally, the scope for the development of regional social accounting in the United Kingdom is discussed.     

Food quality,calories and household income

We investigate the relationship between calories, food quality and household per capita expenditure using regression and semiparametric methods on a sample of poor households from rural Mexico, where Programa de Apoyo Alimentario (PAL), a targeted nutritional programme, is operating. The semiparametric method yields an estimate of the elasticity between calories and expenditure of 0.39 below the median and 0.28 above. The corresponding estimates of the elasticity of the calorie price are 0.48 below the median and 0.45 above. We also examine the extent to which the expenditure elasticity of the calorie price is explained by substitution between and within major food groups. We find that there is a very high incidence of substitution within cereals (especially for poor households) and that between group substitution explains at most 59% of the income elasticity for food quality. These estimates suggest that the potential of a cash transfer programme to have a positive impact on the food diversity and the nutritional status of households is quite limited.     

Expenditure behavior and children's welfare: an analysis of female headed households in Jamaica

This paper presents an analysis on the expenditure behavior and children's welfare among female-headed households in Jamaica. Included in the examination of household composition are the demographic effects, endogeneity of total expenditure, the headship variable and the endogeneity of family structure. Using the 1989 Jamaican Survey of Living Conditions (SLC), expenditure estimation on over 100 goods for 3500 household was examined. This study utilized the Ordinary Least Square estimates, 2 SLC and endogeneity tests, and partnered and unpartnered household heads. Results for the demand for preventive health care were significant among older children in female-headed households, with a 4% increase in the probability of a check-up across all ages. This study presents a partial explanation of lower morbidity rates in female-headed households despite lower budget and total per capita expenditure levels. In conclusion, this study confirms the significant influence of sex and union status of the household head on household expenditure behaviors with implications for individual household members, with more positive outcomes among children despite differences in budget allocation and lower health expenditures.     

Using inverted Engel curves to estimate material standards of living in a household

This article demonstrates how to estimate latent total consumption expenditure or material standard of living in households by inverting estimated Engel curves. While the conventional estimator, total purchase expenditure, is unbiased for latent total household consumption expenditure, it is not variance minimizing since it is an un-weighted sum. In two stages, this article derives a variance-minimizing, unbiased estimator by first estimating and inverting Engel curves; then combining the estimators from the inverted Engel curves. The employed latent variable method allows for utilization of non-expenditure relations. The suggested method may help improve the accuracy in studies of consumption inequality and tax evasion.      

Hoglex Demand Systems and Welfare Policy in Major Asean Developing Countries: A Bayesian Analysis Using Expenditure Unit Records

The HOGLEX demand system (Tran Van Hoa (1983, 1985)) is integrable and flexible in the sense that it is based on utility maximization and encompasses most other well-known demand systems (e.g., LINEX, AIDS) in the literature on consumer behaviour (Laitinen et al. (1983)). HOGLEX studies to date have been based on conventional OLS or MLE methods and panel aggregate income and price data, and restricted to investigating consumption patterns. The paper elaborates on three important subsets of the HOGLEX demand system and, using household expenditure unit records from two major ASEAN developing countries (i.e., Thailand and the Philippines), estimates by the Bayesian method these subsets for 20 socio-demographic cohorts, and discusses their substantial implications in social security and welfare policy analysis. We also estimate the models in the more practical case of measurement errors in total expenditure and compare the results with those without measurement errors.

     

Deriving natural rates of unemployment for sub-national regions: the case of Canadian provinces

In order to pursue informed stabilization policies, it is vital for policy-markers to have estimates of how much of the total unemployment rate can be classified as cyclical rather than natural unemployment. This paper describes a method for generating regional natural-rate estimates and applies this method to the case of Canadian provinces. Results indicate that unemployment insurance generosity and relative minimum wages play an important role in determining natural unemployment rates in Canadian provinces. One of the enduring characteristics of the Canadian labour market has been substantial and peresistent unemployment rate disparities across provinces. The results of this study indicate that these disparities are primarily explained by differences in provincial values of structural variables such as unemployment generosity and by differences in provincial sensitivities to these structural variables. A furher result is that variation in cyclical unemployment rates is substantially less in the traditionally high unemployment region of Atlantic Canada than it is in the traditionally low unemployment province of Ontario. This result implies that the most appropriate policies to reduce unemployment in Atlantic Canada are not regionally-applied expenditure policies but rather policies designed to reduce structural distortions in the provincial labour markets.     

THE DEVELOPMENT OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN ARGENTINA*

The history of national accounting in Argentina is presented in brief. The use of the production method as a basis for GDP estimates is explained and sources and methods of deriving the estimates for different sectors are commented on in some detail. Next the reliability of the estimates is examined for sectoral product, national income by factor shares and the components of final expenditure in terms of the comparison of two different estimates for the period 1950–1963. The degree of accuracy is judged to be generally sufficient, but the importance of economic censuses in the process of estimation is stressed. The importance of detailed studies on several different aspects of the economic structure (input-output, personal and family income by size and regional accounts) is also stressed as a basis for improving the reliability of estimates.     

An intertemporal analysis of expenditure elasticities under three expenditure specifications for Sri Lanka

Household income has been identified as one of the major determinants of demand for household goods. In addition, other household characteristics, such as household size and composition are also found to be important factors that influence household consumption decisions. This study, using four waves (2006/07, 2009/10, 2012/13 and 2016) of Sri Lankan Household Income and Expenditure Survey data, estimates three different specifications (namely, household expenditure, per-capita expenditure and expenditure per equivalent adult) of a complete system of Box-Cox Engel curves to incorporate household size and compositional differences into the model specification. A comparison of elasticity estimates across the three specifications indicates that amongst the three, the best performing model is the one utilizing household expenditure. An intertemporal analysis of expenditure elasticities indicates that although the magnitude of expenditure elasticities has changed, the necessity or luxury classification of household commodities has mostly remained unchanged for the period 2006 ? 2016 in Sri Lanka.     

The demand for alcohol in the United Kingdom

Using the AIDS model, we show that there exists for the UK a stable long-run relationship between expenditure shares on beer, cider, spirits and wine, alcohol prices, total alcohol expenditure and a range of non-economic variables relating to advertising, licensing, the employment, social class and demographic characteristics of consumers, and climate. Our estimates of key price and income elasticities generally lie between those found from other time-series studies (which exclude most of these non-economic variables) and those found from cross-section studies (which generally include them). However, the restrictions required for separability, homegeneity and symmetry (although not those for perfect price aggregation) are decisively rejected.     

NEW ESTIMATES OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM 1830–1914

This paper presents a new annual series for United Kingdom gross national product, at current and constant prices, calculated from the expenditure side. These results differ significantly from previous estimates in that they go back to the beginning of the railway age on an annual basis and also in that the constant price estimates involve a detailed deflation of the main components of expenditure on consumption and capital formation. The implications of the new results are summarised, with particular reference to rates of growth and relative price changes, and an appendix describes the sources of the estimates.     

Labour Market Programs and the Australian Beveridge Curve: 1978 to 1997

Labour market programs are often advocated on the basis that by re-introducing unemployed people to the culture of the workplace, they will re-skill and motivate them enough to make them suitable employees to prospective employers. Accordingly, total employment should rise and vacancy rates fall. If programs work in this manner, we should be able to detect a systematic relationship between labour market program expenditure and the distance of the Beveridge curve from the origin ceteris paribus. There are few studies in the world that have directly tried to assess the impact of labour market program expenditure on the Beveridge curve. Our estimates for Australia over the last 19 years give limited support to the view that most labour market programs nave moved the Beveridge curve inwards.     

Improving Estimates of Inequality and Poverty from Urban China's Household Income and Expenditure Survey

In urban China the Household Income and Expenditure Survey requires respondents to keep a daily expenditure diary for a full 12-month period. This onerous reporting task makes it difficult to recruit respondents, compromising the sample. This article uses monthly expenditure data from two urban areas of China to see if data collection short-cuts, such as extrapolating to annual totals from expenditure reports in only some months of the year, would harm the accuracy of annual expenditure, inequality and poverty estimates. Replacing 12-month diaries with simple extrapolations from either one, two, four or six months would cause a sharp increase in estimates of annual inequality and poverty. This undermines international comparisons of inequality statistics because no country other than China uses such comprehensive 12-month expenditure records. But a corrected form of extrapolation, based on correlations between the same household's expenditures in different months of the year, gives much smaller errors in estimates of inequality and poverty.     

Determinants of Public Expenditure on Health in India: A Panel Data Analysis at Sub-National Level

This study explores whether political factors and fiscal capacity matter more in explaining the growth and variation in health expenditure than the state’s income in India. The findings suggest that with the widening of political participation and greater representation of diverse population groups in politics, one can see a concomitant rise in government expenditure on health, indicating state interventionism in health sector for political reasons. Government’s desire to increase health spending depends on the availability of financial resources with the states, failing which the probability of fulfilling expenditure obligations towards the sector would be low. In contrast to earlier estimates that income elasticity of health expenditure is nearly equal to or greater than one, the elasticity is found to be less than one which ranges between 0.16 and 0.59. Overall, coefficient estimates of most of these important covariates show an upward bias in terms of magnitude and precision due to the absence of unobserved control factors and of advanced robust estimation techniques.

     

Estimating the Private Economic Benefits of Sons Versus Daughters in India

In order to understand the economic incentives behind gender discrimination in India, this paper provides the first estimates of the magnitude of the economic benefits of having a son instead of a daughter. The study estimates large gains from a first-born son to per capita income and expenditure, household assets, and a reduction in the probability the household is below the poverty line. Estimates show that a first-born son may provide economic advantages through a reduction in total children born and also from an adult son’s labor supply contribution to his parents’ household. The observed pattern of incentives is also compared with observed patterns in sex selection as a test of whether the relative economic value of first-born sons and daughters can explain the prevalence of sex-selective abortion.     

Estimation of Equivalence Scales Under Convertible Rationing

This paper provides estimates of equivalence scales based on three Quadratic Almost Ideal type models of the food share with coupon resale, and on their extended versions. A chief feature of the models is the method of dealing with infrequency of zero expenditure on coupon goods through imputation. The models are applied to an Iranian wartime budget survey. The results indicate little scope for measurement error. However, they also reveal a strong cross‐section price effect, which proves robust to a variety of checks. The effect of price heterogeneity proves critical in identification of the scale estimates, providing relatively rare empirical evidence consistent with the Base Independence (BI) hypothesis. The BI food share estimates of cost of children have plausible values.     

THE BUILT-IN FLEXIBILITY OF INCOME AND CONSUMPTION TAXES IN NEW ZEALAND

This paper provides estimates of individual and aggregate revenue elasticities of income and consumption taxes in New Zealand, based on the 2001 tax structure and expenditure patterns. Using analytical expressions for revenue elasticities at the individual and aggregate levels, together with a simulated income distribution, values for New Zealand were obtained. Results using equi-proportional income changes suggest that the aggregate income and consumption tax revenue elasticities are both fairly constant as mean income increases, at around 1.3 and 0.95 respectively. This latter estimate assumes that increases in disposable income are accompanied by approximately proportional increases in total expenditure. If there is a tendency for the savings proportion to increase as disposable income increases, a somewhat lower total consumption tax revenue elasticity, of around 0.9, is obtained for 2001 income levels. However, non-equiproportional income changes are more realistic. Allowing for regression towards the geometric mean income reduces these elasticities, giving an elasticity for income and consumption taxes combined that is only slightly above unity. Examination of the tax-share weighted expenditure elasticities for various goods also revealed that, despite the adoption of a broad based GST at a uniform rate in New Zealand, the persistence of various excises has an important effect on the overall consumption tax revenue elasticity, especially for individuals at relatively low income levels.     

Endogenous Government Expenditure: A Test of Wagner's Hypothesis For Hong Kong

In the last two decades a revival of interest in wagner's thesis of an endogenous public sector has led to a series of empirical tests of its validity. In its barest essentials, this paper attempts to find efficient estimates of income elasticities of demand for real total government expenditure as well as for its disaggregated functional groups as a means of verifying Wagner's expectation for the Hong Kong economy. Our empirical estimates indicate that Hong Kong's public finance setting is a synchronization of a worldwide tendency for public sector expansion according to the Wagnerian expectation. These findings lead us to raise a number of policy questions concerning the financial sustainability of Hong Kong's budget system over time. [320]     

地区差异、财政支出与居民消费

笔者利用跨期优化理论导出实证方程,然后运用1998年~2006年中国省级面板数据进行估计,并分析各地区政府财政总支出及其功能性分类支出对当地居民消费的影响。研究表明:1.地区差异对地方财政支出对居民消费的效应有重要影响。地方财政总支出对居民消费是一种不显著的挤出效应,这种挤出效应因不同地区、不同时期而不同;2.在国家实施积极财政政策时期,只有西部地区其他支出对居民消费有显著的挤出效应,其他地区的其他功能性分类财政支出对居民消费的效应均不显著;在国家实施稳健性财政政策时期,功能性分类财政支出对居民消费的影响随地区不同而不同。     

INEQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITY IN EARNINGS AND CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE: THE CASE OF INDIAN MEN

The paper associates inequality of opportunities with outcome differences that can be accounted by predetermined circumstances which lie beyond the control of an individual, such as parental education, parental occupation, caste, religion, and place of birth. The non‐parametric estimates using parental education as a measure of circumstances reveal that the opportunity share of earnings inequality in 2004–05 was 11–19 percent for urban India and 5–8 percent for rural India. The same figures for consumption expenditure inequality are 10–19 percent for urban India and 5–9 percent for rural India. The overall opportunity share estimates (parametric) of earnings inequality due to circumstances, including caste, religion, region, parental education, and parental occupation, vary from 18 to 26 percent for urban India, and from 16 to 21 percent for rural India. The overall opportunity share estimates for consumption expenditure inequality are close to the earnings inequality figures for both urban and rural areas. The analysis further finds evidence that the parental education specific opportunity share of overall earnings (and consumption expenditure) inequality is largest in urban India, but caste and geographical region also play an equally important role when rural India is considered.