货币市场基金规模变动与监管政策研究——基于面板数据的实证分析

本文对于面板数据的回归结果表明：在剔除互联网技术或者监管政策等短时外部冲击要素下,基金规模与上期收益率、上期净资金流入都表现出显著正相关性,由此推断,货币市场基金的规模变动是一个动态的自我调节过程,包含内生变动和外生变动两个作用机制.随着我国利率市场化改革进程的深入推进,监管当局应坚持审慎监管原则,推进资本金的逆周期管理,强化行业集中度管理及负债期限结构的流动性要求.     

相对业绩差距评估对基金经理风险承担的激励研究

基金经理在选择投资组合风险时,不仅会考虑基金的业绩排名,同时会考虑基金业绩之间的差距,由此提出了业绩差距排名,并提出了新的实证方法,即线性回归的方法来研究业绩差距排名对基金经理风险承担的影响,同时验证了BHS结论在中国基金市场中的适用性。结果表明BHS结论在中国基金市场中是不成立的,同时表明在中国基金市场中基金经理具有相对业绩排名目标,但此相对业绩排名是本文中所提出的业绩差距排名,此结论可以为监管部门规范基金投资行为以及为投资者选择基金提供参考。     

A review of behavioural and management effects in mutual fund performance

This paper surveys and critically evaluates the literature on the role of management effects and fund characteristics in mutual fund performance. First, a brief overview of performance measures is provided. Second, empirical findings on the predictive power of fund characteristics in explaining future returns are discussed. Third, the paper reviews the literature on fund manager behavioural biases and the impact these have on risk taking and returns. Finally, the impact of organizational structure, governance and strategy on both fund risk taking and future performance is examined. While a number of surveys on mutual fund performance are available, these have not focused on the role of manager behavioural biases, manager characteristics and fund management strategic behavior on fund performance and risk taking. This review is an attempt to fill this gap. Empirical results indicate that finding successful funds ex-ante is extremely difficult, if not impossible. In contrast, there is strong evidence that poor performance persists for many of the prior “loser fractile” portfolios of funds. A number of manager behavioural biases are prevalent in the mutual fund industry and they generally detract from returns.     

The economic gain of being small in the mutual fund industry: U.S. and international evidence

Motivated by the ongoing debate on the interaction between fund size and fund performance, we investigate the effect of asset growth on fund performance. We explicitly measure the economic gain (loss) of being a small (large) fund by comparing the average performance of a large fund vis à vis its average performance when it was small. Our results reveal that for the U.S. actively managed equity funds, the risk-adjusted return differential amounts to 7.08% per year in favor of small funds. Moreover, we fail to identify any performance loss for a fund relative to its history unless it belongs in the top 70% of fund size. However, the documented implicit performance handicap of U.S. large equity funds is not met in funds investing outside the U.S. Our findings carry important implications for the mutual fund industry and for the fund selection process.     

股市波动对基金管理费报酬的影响研究——基于中介效应的分析

利用中介效应分析方法检验了理论假设:股市波动对基金管理费报酬有积极的影响,基金业绩在股市波动对基金管理费报酬的影响中存在正的中介效应,即基金有能力在股市波动中发掘机会来提高业绩,从而提高管理费报酬。实证结果表明,在没有增加基金业绩情况下,股市波动对基金管理费报酬具有积极影响,此结论从股市波动的视角证明了基金管理费激励机制并不是激励相容的。根据实证结果,可以从基金类型多样化、扩大管理费率范围和加强投资者教育等三个方面完善基金管理费激励机制。     

TEMPORAL CHANGES IN THE DETERMINANTS OF MUTUAL FUND FLOWS

We examine how the relation between mutual fund performance and fund flows has changed over time by separating our sample into two periods (1978–87 and 1988–97). We document an increase in the flow‐performance asymmetry in the second period that exacerbates the adverse incentive for fund managers to increase portfolio risk. We develop a measure of the elasticity of fund flows with respect to performance, which filters out the confounding influence of greater aggregate fund flows in the second period and allows an examination of whether current investors place more emphasis on prior performance when selecting funds. We conclude that, though top performing funds are rewarded with greater fund flows in the second half of our sample, the change is due solely to the increase in aggregate fund flows and not to an increased reliance on performance by individual fund investors. JEL classification: G1, G2, L1.     

Derivative use,fund flows and investment manager performance

Prior literature which examines the use of derivatives by investment managers does not discern between different types of derivative trading strategies. This study is the first to examine and gather data on a particular type of derivative trading strategy undertaken by investment managers. We examine the extent to which equity fund managers use index futures to manage fund flows and the effect this has on their alpha and market timing measures of performance. Our results show that funds that do not use derivatives exhibit lower returns and negative market timing skills when they experience fund flow. The performance of funds that use derivatives, however, is independent of investor’s liquidity demands. In fact, the unconditional performance of the average user fund is statistically equivalent to the performance of the average non-user fund conditional on zero fund flow. Our results provide evidence that derivatives can be beneficial for mutual fund holders under certain conditions.     

International evidence on Islamic equity fund characteristics and performance persistence

This research examines the presence of performance persistence and the impact of fund-specific characteristics on Islamic equity fund (IEF) performance. We conduct an empirical study based on an extensive Database of 301 IEFs and for the period 1999–2013. Our results reveal that fund age, family size and management fees have a significant positive impact on IEF performance. On the other hand, other characteristics such as flows, minimum investment size, higher liquidity, and load fees have negative effect on fund performance, whereas fund size has no significant impact on IEF performance. Our study reveals that Islamic equity funds exhibit negative performance persistence. The paper provides relevant practical implications for managers, analysts and investors. To our knowledge, this empirical study is the first to investigate the intrinsic determinants of Islamic equity fund performance, with sufficient statistical power that is based on an effective sample size with international diversity.     

中国基金管理公司的所有权结构与绩效

本文探讨中国基金管理公司的所有权结构对其所管理基金的整体业绩的影响.我们以所有权结构与企业经营业绩的一般理论为基础,将基金管理公司作为特定的企业类型和研究对象,提出关于所有权类型和控股程度的假设,使用1999年至2010年我国基金管理公司的面板数据进行计量检验.我们发现,中外合资的基金管理公司业绩总体优于纯中资背景的基金管理公司,但是外资比例不宜过大;绝对控股的基金管理公司比相对控股和股权分散的基金管理公司业绩更优,然而控股股东的类型对业绩没有明显影响.我们根据这些发现提出了若干实践启示.     

固定费用结构下基金经理管理费激励研究

基于经理的努力水平和风险规避程度是基金经理费设计的关键因素,构建固定费率结构下基金经理努力及风险选择的模型,结合我国基金样本数据进行了实证研究结果表明:管理费与基金业绩无显著正相关性,且低业绩的基金体现出较高的管理费率;管理费与基金风险具有显著的正相关关系。     

Flow-Performance Relationship and Star Effect: New Evidence from Chinese Mutual Funds

In this paper, we reexamine the mutual fund flow-performance relationship and star effect using mutual funds in China that have unique features of high risk and low performance persistence. Confirming prior studies, we find that fund performance is positively related to flows in subsequent periods. However, our results show that funds that performed well in the past do not attract additional inflows after controlling for performance. In addition, a star fund, a fund with a five-star Morningstar rating, does not have any significant effect on the fund's flows. These results suggest that it is important to recognize the difference in investor groups and factors that affect performance persistence when analyzing the mutual fund flow-performance relationship.     

Do investors show an attentional bias toward past performance? An eye-tracking experiment on visual attention to mutual fund disclosures in simplified fund prospectuses

This study examines the cognitive processes underlying investors’ extrapolations of past fund performance and whether investors’ attention patterns may explain their return-chasing behaviors. We measured the attention that investors paid to mutual fund disclosures in a simplified fund prospectus using unobtrusive infrared eye tracking. Results suggest that prior fund performance, which is normatively irrelevant information and not useful in predicting future performance, received considerable attention from investors. More interestingly, the impact of prior fund performance on investors’ purchasing intentions was fully mediated through expected returns and attention paid to past performance information. The results indicate that investors apparently believe in performance persistence or in a ‘hot hand’ effect, and that mutual fund purchases are driven by salient information such as superior performance. Moreover, we tested the disclaimer mandated by regulatory bodies, which warns that past performance does not guarantee future results. We found that the disclaimer was ineffective in reducing investors’ extrapolation biases, despite the fact that the disclaimer was attended to and properly encoded by investors.     

基金网络能够提高投资绩效吗？

基金网络在金融市场的信息流动中发挥着重要作用。本文利用基金共同持股关系构建了一个有效的基金网络数据集,以中国资本市场股票型基金2005-2018年季度数据为研究样本,考察基金网络是否以及如何影响投资绩效。结果表明,基金在基金网络中越处于网络中心地位,基金的投资绩效越高。使用基金家族网络作为工具变量缓解内生性偏误后,基金网络仍然对投资绩效具有显著的正向影响。进一步地,本文考察了基金网络影响投资绩效的渠道,结果表明,基金网络主要通过提高基金的选股技能、资产配置技能和管理技能影响投资绩效。最后,本文考察了基金网络对基金市场份额的影响,研究发现基金网络会显著提高基金的市场份额,对基金在市场上的占有率有积极的正向影响。     

Portfolio concentration and fund manager performance

This research examines the relationships among portfolio concentration, fund manager skills, and fund performance in Taiwan's equity mutual fund industry, yielding several empirical findings as follows. First, after controlling for other factors, concentrated equity funds tend to have smaller net asset values, larger fund flows, higher turnover rates, and a younger age and prevail in smaller fund families. Second, concentrated fund managers buy and sell stocks more smartly based on economic trends or market factors than do diversified fund managers, i.e., they have better market‐timing abilities. Third, only partial evidence supports the premise that concentrated equity funds have better next‐quarter risk‐adjusted performances than do diversified ones, as these fund managers' skills positively correlate to risk‐adjusted fund performance. Fourth, fund managers who have better stock‐picking abilities and intensively invest in certain industries generally exhibit better Carhart's alpha in the next quarter than do other fund managers. Fifth, fund managers' stock‐picking abilities more closely relate to long‐term performance than do their market‐timing abilities. Lastly, positive performance persistence is much stronger than negative performance persistence, but concentrated funds do not have stronger performance persistence than do diversified funds.     

Fund ESG performance and downside risk: Evidence from China

Whether responsible investing reduces portfolio risk remains open to discussion. We study the relationship between ESG performance and downside risk at fund level in the Chinese equity mutual fund market. We find that fund ESG performance is positively associated with fund downside risk during the period between July 2018 and March 2021, and that the positive relationship weakens during the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose three channels through which fund ESG performance could affect fund downside risk: (i) the firm channel in which the risk-mitigation effect of portfolio firms’ good ESG practices could be manifested at fund level, (ii) the diversification channel in which the portfolio concentration of high ESG-rated funds could amplify fund downside risk, and (iii) the flow channel in which funds’ better ESG performance may attract greater investor flows that could reduce fund downside risk. We show evidence that the observed time-varying relationship between fund ESG performance and downside risk is driven by the relative force of the three channels.     

The Cross‐Section of Managerial Ability,Incentives, and Risk Preferences

I estimate a dynamic investment model for mutual managers to study the cross‐sectional distribution of ability, incentives, and risk preferences. The manager's compensation depends on the size of the fund, which fluctuates due to fund returns and due to fund flows that respond to the fund's relative performance. The model provides an economic interpretation of time‐varying coefficients in performance regressions in terms of the structural parameters. I document that the estimates of fund alphas are precise and virtually unbiased. I find substantial heterogeneity in ability, risk preferences, and pay‐for‐performance sensitivities that relates to observable fund characteristics.     

Performance Manipulation and Fund Flow: Evidence from China

In this paper, we assess the relation between fund flow and fund returns in China's open-ended fund industry. Analyzing quarterly data from the period January 2005-December 2012, we construct a simultaneous equation model that captures the endogeneity of current and past returns and flows and find that contemporaneous returns have a key role in determining fund flows. We then estimate the fund performance "manipulation degree" to further investigate the performance manipulation effect on fund flows. We find that manipulated funds can attract an additional flow of money and that, notably, individual rather than institutional investors are more likely to be deceived by manipulative behavior.     

MUTUAL FUNDS SELECTION BASED ON FUNDS CHARACTERISTICS

The popular investment strategy in the literature is to use only past performance to select mutual funds. We investigate whether an investor can select superior funds by additionally using fund characteristics. After considering the fund fees, we find that combining information on past performance, turnover ratio, and ability produces a yearly excess net return of 8.0%, whereas an investment strategy that uses only past performance generates 7.1%. Adjusting for systematic risks, and then using fund characteristics, increases yearly alpha significantly from 0.8% to 1.7%. The strategy that also uses fund characteristics requires less turnover.     

Regulatory induced performance persistence: Evidence from hedge funds

This paper tests the idea that financial regulation can impact performance persistence in the context of the hedge fund industry in 48 countries over the years 1994–2008. The data show evidence of three types of regulation influencing performance persistence: (1) minimum capital restrictions, which restrict lower quality funds and hence increase the likelihood of performance persistence, (2) restrictions on location of key service providers, which restrict human capital choices and hence tend to mitigate performance persistence, and (3) distribution channels, which make fund performance more opaque, decrease the likelihood of performance persistence. We do not find evidence that distribution channels, that promote fund presence to institutional investors, enhance performance persistence. Finally, we show differences in the effect of regulation on persistence by fund quartile ranking.     

基金业绩如何影响风格漂移和经理离职?——理论与经验分析

本文通过一个两期模型,刻画了基金业绩如何通过影响市场信念,进而影响基金风格漂移和基金公司的解雇行为。若上期基金业绩很好,基金经理就会在乐观的自我能力预期下,完全按照自己的判断选择基金投资风格;若上期业绩一般,基金经理会因为调整成本而不太愿意切换投资风格;而若上期业绩很差导致自我能力预期悲观,基金经理就宁愿模仿上期绩优基金的投资风格。综合起来,基金风格漂移将随上期基金业绩呈现出显著的U型关系。进一步,因为业绩很差的基金经理会采取模仿策略,因此在市场风格发生切换时更有可能发生基金经理解雇事件。此外,本文基于中国开放式基金的季度数据,检验了风格漂移与滞后一期基金业绩之间的关系,经验证据稳健地支持了理论分析的各种结论。