Information contents of collateral under heterogeneous borrower qualities on the bank loans market in China

We analyze the risk of default and provision of collateral for bank loans made to firms of varied credit qualities using a unique dataset obtained from a major state-owned commercial bank in China. Both high and low quality borrowers provide collateral more often than medium quality debtors do. Using models that explicitly incorporate heterogeneous borrower qualities, we find a positive relation between collateralization and risk of default for loans issued to debtors with low credit ratings. In contrast, collateral provided by debtors with high credit ratings is negatively associated with the risk of default. These results suggest that low quality borrowers may be required to provide collateral at the bank's request to mitigate moral hazard problem. On the other hand, high quality borrowers may provide collateral willingly to signal quality in order to mitigate adverse selection problem when competing for getting access to bank loans. Our findings shed new lights on different information contents of collateral on the bank loans market of China, and have important implications for banks in screening, contracting and monitoring the risk of commercial loans for clients with diverse credit qualities.     

创新国有商业银行信贷管理

国有商业银行近年来更加突出的信贷集中隐藏着危险,实证研究表明,国有商业银行大额信贷风险高,长期效益低,并且容易导致银行内外勾结诈骗贷款。小额信贷不仅为银行带来丰厚的利润,而且促进中小企业发展和社会和谐。国有商业银行的信贷管理,应变大额集中投放为小额分散投放,变集体审批无人负责为个人审批个人负责,并且设置适当的个人审批贷款的最大累计余额和个人借款的最大累计余额。     

购并成长:国际银行业的经验和中国国有商业银行的选择

当前,中国国有商业银行面对内资银行竞争已经烽火连天、外资银行竞争即将硝烟弥漫的市场环境,国有商业银行掌握并长期获得垄断利润的行业壁垒不断瓦解。面对强劲的对手,国有商业银行如何抓住机遇,提高自己的竞争能力已成为当务之急。我们认为,国际银行业的购并成长战略选择能给我们提供不少启示。     

银行与政府职能的冲突与解决对策

国有商业银行监管中由政府职能冲突引发的利益冲突问题只不过是中国银行体系改革过程的一个方面。而银行体系的改革又直接服务于我国经济体制转轨的需要。因此,我们必须站在宏观经济的视角来看待国有商业银行的困境和改革路径。更进一步,我们还要根据国家宏观经济政策的走向,对国有商业银行改革的前景作一个判断。本文就银行与政府职能的冲突与解决对策做了相关探索,希望为化解国有商业银行监管中的政府职能冲突提出一些有益的建议。     

The lending channel of monetary policy in Indonesia

This study evaluates the bank lending channel of monetary policy in Indonesia by using quarterly bank-level data over the period of 2005-2016. I find that the lending channel of monetary policy works for all banks, both large and small. The results suggest that higher capital buffers and better liquidity positions moderate the impact of changes in monetary policy on credit growth for large banks, while capital buffers and liquidity positions do not alter the strength of the lending channel for small banks. The findings indicate that the central bank can use prudential instruments affecting capital buffers and liquidity positions for managing the strength of adjustment in the monetary policy interest rate on bank credit growth.     

Flight‐to‐safety and the credit crunch: a new history of the banking crises in France during the Great Depression†

Despite France's importance in the interwar world economy, the scale of the French banking crises of 1930–1 and their consequences have never been fully assessed quantitatively. The lack of banking regulation severely limited the availability of balance sheet data. Using a new dataset of individual balance sheets from more than 300 banks, this article shows that the crises were much more severe than previously thought, although they did not affect the main commercial banks. By reconstructing financial flows, this study shows that the fall in bank credit was mostly driven by a flight‐to‐safety by deposits, from banks to savings institutions and the central bank. The decrease in bank deposits due to bank runs was offset by an increase in deposits with savings institutions, with the central bank, and in cash hoarding, whereas the decrease in bank credit was not offset by an increase in loans from non‐bank financial institutions. In line with the gold standard mentality, cash deposited with savings institutions and the central bank was used to decrease marketable public debt and increase gold reserves, rather than pursuing countercyclical policies. Despite massive capital inflows and rising aggregate money supply, France suffered from a severe, persistent credit crunch.     

分权化改革、政府干预与国有企业债务融资

债务融资一直是资本结构研究的重要内容。利用我国上市公司数据,采用规范研究和实证研究相结合的方法,对我国分权化改革和政府干预如何影响国有企业债务融资进行了分析。研究发现,企业所在地区的分权化程度越高,企业银行贷款率越高,政府干预对企业银行贷款影响越大。在考虑债务融资的性质差异基础上,进一步研究发现,企业所在地区的分权化程度越高,政府干预对长期借款的影响比短期借款大。上述研究说明,分权化改革影响着国有企业的债务融资行为,并使地方政府有很强的动机干预辖区内的国有企业债务融资行为。     

“Subsidies” or “taxes”? Corporate credit misallocation induced by the nexus of state-owned enterprises and state-owned banks

Diverging from common claims made in the literature, this paper shows that “two-way” credit misallocation is linked to state ownership status. Specifically, not all Chinese state-owned firms benefit from their ownership status by obtaining lower interest costs as a type of subsidy. Some firms are subjected to higher interest costs as a form of tax. We report further evidence for the relationship between financial development and economic growth by accounting for heterogeneity in interstate banking coverage. From listed and unlisted firms’ data, we find that when the presence of state-owned banks is strong, state ownership-associated distortions in interest costs are more severe.     

基于人工神经网络的商业银行信用风险模型

入世后,国外金融机构将给国内银行造成巨大的竞争压力。为了适应竞争的需要,增加抵御风险的能力,有必要对商业银行风险进行研究,以防范金融风险,维护金融及整个经济稳定。本文根据我国的具体现实,运用人工神经网络技术,构造出适合中国的信用风险模型,并对大连市某国有银行提供的数据进行了实证研究。     

Chinese Stylized Sterilization： The Cost-sharing Mechanism and Financial Repression

This paper attempts to explain why sterilized intervention was so successful and sustainable in China during the first decade of the 21st century.We argue that the Chinese Government established a sterilization cost-sharing mechanism among the People’s Bank of China, commercial banks and the household sector.On the one hand,Chinese commercial banks have to assume some of the sterilization costs by purchasing low yield central bank bills and maintaining high levels of required reserves.On the other hand,Chinese households assume some of the sterilization costs by bearing negative real deposit interest rates.The costsharing mechanism under financial repression prevents a huge quasi-fiscal loss by the People’s Bank of China as well as high inflation.However,Chinese households have become victims of this financial repression.Faced with the pressure of changing the growth model from investment-driven to domestic consumption-driven,the interest rate will have to be liberalized eventually,which will,in turn,make sterilized intervention unsustainable.     

Monetary policy transmission and macroeconomic policy coordination in Pacific island countries

During the global financial crisis, central banks in Pacific island countries eased monetary policy to stimulate economic activity. Judging by the ensuing movements in commercial bank interest rates and private sector credit, monetary policy transmission appears to be weak. This is confirmed by an empirical examination of interest rate pass‐through and credit growth. Weak credit demand and under‐developed financial markets seem to have limited the effectiveness of monetary policy, but the inflexibility of exchange rates and rising real interest rates have also served to frustrate the central banks' efforts despite a supporting fiscal policy. While highlighting the importance of developing domestic financial markets in the long run, this experience also points to the need to coordinate macroeconomic policies and to use all macroeconomic tools available in conducting countercyclical policies, including exchange rate flexibility.     

商业信用:基于企业融资动机的实证研究

商业信用是企业从外部市场进行短期融资的重要组成部分。本文采用我国上市公司2000年至2004年的数据实证研究了商业信用作为企业外部融资方式的决定因素。实证结果发现企业获得的商业信用与企业规模、财务杠杆、销售增长率以及国有股比例呈显著正相关关系．而与短期银行借款比例以厦毛利润率呈显著负相关关系。这些发现表明,在我国目前所处的融资环境下。商业信用已经成为企业的重要融资手段。与银行信贷相比。商业信用具有一定的融资比较优势,作为提供商业信用的企业,对客户的经营状况等信息的了解更有效。     

Financial reform and credit extension in Lesotho

The study on which this article is based was concerned with establishing whether the lending behaviour of Lesotho's commercial banks in relation to the private sector has changed following the reforms that have been implemented since 1980. The influence of macroeconomic variables on agricultural credit and on private sector lending provided through the existing commercial banks during the period 1980 to 1993 was examined. The results showed a high and significant association between total credit extension and the general performance of the economy. Macroeconomic variables such as returns on financial securities in Lesotho and bonds in the Republic of South Africa, bank discount rates and the interest rates on saving deposits applicable in Lesotho had a key effect on the extension of credit by commercial banks to the private sector. The study concluded that credit extension activities in Lesotho during the study period were sensitive to the macroeconomic environment.     

Responding to financial crisis: Bank credit expansion with Chinese characteristics

China has sustained a high rate of economic growth even after the outbreak of global financial crisis around 2008 and 2009. Much of the growth stemmed from consistently high levels of lending after this period. Using a unique large dataset from all banking institutions in 90 counties across 14 provinces of China from 2005 to 2013, this paper examines the patterns of credit expansion by Chinese banks. Our study results reveal a clear pattern of counter-cyclical credit expansion by Chinese banks in response to the outbreak of global financial crisis. We find that ownership structure and bank governance do impact on bank lending: the large state-owned banks have responded more to political pressure to lend while the joint-stock banks and city commercial banks have been more profit oriented. The latter had increased their lending more to increase their presence at the county markets. Overall, compared with county-based small banks, cross-regional banks have expanded their lending much more aggressively. Differences in liquidity and deposit growth, risk management strategies, or legal enforcement cannot explain these results.     

Struggle for survival in credit crunch: The effect of interest rate deregulation in China

This study investigates how interest rate deregulation affects firms' financing choice between bank debt and public debt. Our analysis exploits China's 2013 bank interest rate floor deregulation as an exogenous shock to the supply of bank credit. Using a difference-in-difference design, we find that firms with higher default risk substitute away from bank loan and switch to public debt after the 2013 deregulation. However, this substitution to public debt is limited, leading to a dramatic decline in debt ratio. Our result also demonstrates that the effect on firms' public debt financing is more pronounced for firms with better information environments, suggesting that good information environment is an important prerequisite for making the switch. This switching, contradicting to traditional financing framework that high-risk firms prefer bank loans, inevitably is costly. Compared with low-risk firms, bonds issued by high-risk firms have significantly higher spreads, a higher likelihood of being secured, and a higher tendency of including an interest-adjusted clause. More importantly, we also document that high-risk firms subsequently improve their information transparency after the interest rate deregulation. Our findings highlight the role of interest rate deregulation in firms' financing choice and illustrate that firms incur high switching costs when their choice deviates from the optimal financing choice.     

税制改革和国有商业银行资本充足率的内源性提升

金融部门被认为是现代市场经济的枢纽和命脉,其效率水平会对整个经济的效率水平产生基础性影响。资本充足率是衡量银行抵御风险能力和稳健性的重要指标,我国国有商业银行资本充足率状况不容乐观。税收作为国家主要政策手段,是金融发展的重要制度因素。文章从税制改革角度,探讨提升国有商业银行资本充足率的问题。     

Allocating and taxing rights to state-owned minerals

Is Indonesia using the most effective possible strategies to derive revenue from its mineral resources? Auctions and work program bidding are the main ways of allocating mineral leases. In addition to the company taxes applied to all companies, governments can raise revenue from minerals owned by the state through auctions, royalties and rent taxes paid by private firms, and through dividends from state-owned firms. Indonesia uses work program bidding to allocate leases, and its production-sharing contracts are roughly equivalent to a rent tax at a high rate. This paper considers these options for raising revenues from mineral resources. It argues that efficiency and government revenue would both be increased if Indonesia relaxed direct controls on the operations of mining companies, and allocated leases by means of auctions, combined with a much lower rate of rent tax or, better still, a royalty.     

资本账户开放对商业银行风险的影响研究——来自新兴经济体的经验证据

资本账户开放对一国宏观经济至关重要。文章总结了资本账户开放影响商业银行风险的财富与估值效应、周期效应、道德风险效应和竞争效应,利用2011-2017年期间22个新兴经济体111家商业银行的微观数据,构建动态面板广义矩估计（GMM）模型实证检验了资本账户开放对商业银行风险的影响,并且进行了异质性检验。实证结果显示：（1）资本账户开放与商业银行风险呈正U型关系。（2）资本越雄厚、规模越大的商业银行抵抗资本账户开放影响的能力越强。为避免银行体系风险的过度积累,政府应考虑银行业资本充足情况与宏观经济情况,不断探索宏观审慎工具,合理安排资本账户开放程度。     

Completing China's Interest Rate Liberalization

China's recent removal of the last ceiling restriction on deposit rates in October 2015 is a milestone in interest rate liberalization, but not the end of it. International experience suggests that, without structural and quantitative reforms, simply freeing interest rates can result in major financial stress. Before China's central bank can completely relinquish implicit or explicit guidance for commercial banks' interest rate determination, it needs to accomplish two tasks: improvement of commercial banks' pricing capability as well as the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Both tasks require significant reform measures to be initiated, such as enforcing market discipline, forming a new monetary policy framework, developing money and capital markets, abandoning quantitative restrictions on credit and reforming the financial regulatory system.     

国有商业银行顾客满意度研究

通过问卷调查的形式,对国有商业银行顾客满意度作了调查分析,用SPSS软件对影响顾客选购银行产品和服务的各因素的重要性和满意程度进行了深入调查研究,建立了因素重要性模型,对国有商业银行顾客满意度进行了评价。分析了国有商业银行顾客满意度工作实践取得的成果及其存在的问