The Timing of the Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa

If demographic and health surveys have underlined declining fertility trends in many countries of sub-Saharan Africa, little is known on the precise timing and the speed of the fertility transition in the continent. This study attempts to fill this gap, by using an innovative approach to the analysis of DHS data and other relevant surveys. The method utilizes fine tuning of fertility trends year by year, for urban and rural areas separately. The paper starts by a case study of the fertility transition in Kenya. The same method is later applied to more than 20 countries. Results indicate that in many countries, fertility started to decline in the late 1960s and 1970s in urban areas, and about 10 years later in rural areas, much earlier than usually thought. Placing a time frame at the onset of the fertility transition allows one to develop further analysis of the key determinants of the fertility transition. Emphasis is on the role of family planning programs, as well as on emerging independent individual behavior such as delayed marriage and induced abortions. Comparison is made with the situations of other developing countries, and with the possible role of mass media, in particular television.     

An Alternative Development Model: A Socio-Cultural Analysis of the Existential Conditions for Growth with Equity and Diversity in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract: An analytical framework is used to review the socio-cultural experiences of African societies with an emphasis on their organizations, interaction and action toward development as well as their demographic experiences. In this framework, the socio-cultural setting which influences the way of life— values, beliefs systems, norms, ideas and idealogies—evolved in response to the people's existential experiences. This variable influences both the demographic experiences and the social organization (family and kinship) of a society as well as its value system. These, as intermediate variables, in turn influence the appropriate strategy to be adopted for the development of society. Résumé: S'inspirant d'un cadre analytique, les auteurs examinent les expériences socio-culturelles des sociétés africaines en privilégiant l'organisation de ces sociétés, leur interaction, leur action de développement ainsi que leur expérience démographique. Vu sous cet angle, le cadre socio-culturel determinant le mode de vie—valeurs, systèmes de croyances, normes, idées et idéologies—a évolué en réponse à l'expérience existentielle des populations. Cette variable influence tant l'expérience démographique et l'organisation sociale (famille et parenté) que le système de valeurs de la société. Et en tant que variables intermédiaries, ces variables influencent à leur tour la stratégie à adopter pour le développement de la société.     

Leaders and Tenures in Sub-Saharan Africa

While there has been extensive evidence provided on the varying effects of leaders’ extended tenures on economic growth, political institutions and conflict, little attention in the empirical literature has been given to the determinants that may contribute to long tenures. Without being cognisant of these underlying factors, any efforts aimed at limiting tenures to progress economic development and democratic institutions will have little effect, as evidenced by several leaders’ attempts to subvert constitutional laws in this regard. Using panel data analysis for sub-Saharan African countries between 1960 and 2015, this study looks at the likely determinants (both at individual and country level) that can increase or decrease political survival. The preliminary results suggest that at an individual level, the leader’s age, political career and rebel experience increase the likelihood of extended tenure, while the leader’s education reduces the probability of extended tenure. At a country level, the country’s wealth is likely to increase tenures, while increased conflict and strong institutions decrease a leader’s tenure.     

Protection and export performance in Sub-Saharan Africa

Zusammenfassung Protektion und Exportleistung in Schwarzafrika. - Der Verfasser untersucht das Ausma? und die Struktur der nominalen Protektion in einer gro?en Zahl schwarzafrikanischer L?nder und sch?tzt die Auswirkungen der Protektion auf die Exporte dieser L?nder. Er stellt fest, da? sowohl die Zolls?tze als auch die H?ufigkeit nichttarif?rer Handelsschranken in Schwarzafrika durchschnittlich wesentlich h?her sind als in anderen Entwicklungsl?ndern. Die Sch?tzungen auf der Grundlage von Simulationen mit einem einfachen Modell des partiellen Gleichgewichts für Handel und reale Wechselkurse deuten darauf hin, da? die Protektion den Wert der Exporte der untersuchten L?nder (im Verh?ltnis zum Basiswert bei Abwesenheit von Protektion) um 15 bis 33 vH pro Jahr verringert und eine Exportdiversifizierung verhindert.

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Résumé La protection et les exportations en Afrique Noire. - L’auteur examine l’étendue et la structure de la protection nominale pour une grande nombre des pays de l’Afrique Noire et estime les effets de cette protection sur les exportations de ces pays. On constate que les taux tarifaires ainsi que le taux de fréquence des barrières nontarifaires sont en moyenne considérablément plus hauts aux pays de l’Afrique Noire qu’aux autres pays en voie de développement. Les estimations qui sont basées sur des simulations d’un simple modèle d’équilibre partiel du commerce international et de l’ajustement de taux de change réel suggèrent que la protection réduit la valeur des exportations des pays choisis (en relation aux niveaux de base) par un pourcentage entre 15 et 33 chaque année et empêche une diversification de l’exportation.

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Resumen Protección y performance exportadora en el Africa del Sub-Sahara.- En este trabajo se examina el grado y la estructura de la protección nominal de una gran muestra de países africanos del Sub-Sahara y se proveen estimaciones de los efectos de esta protección sobre las exportaciones de esos países. Tanto los aranceles cómo la frecuencia de las medidas no arancelarias resultan ser bastante más altas en promedio en los paises del Sub-Sahara que en otros paises en desarrollo. Sobre la base de simulaciones de un modelo simple de equilibrio parcial de ajuste del comercio y de la tasa de cambio las estimaciones sugieren que la protección reduce el valor de las exportaciones de los paises de la muestra (en relación al valor base) entre un 15 y 33 por ciento por a?o e inhibe la diversification de las exportaciones.

     

The Liberalization and De-Regulation of the Transport Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract: In this paper we discuss the various policies now being implemented in Sub-Saharan Africa geared to the liberalization, de-regulation and privatization of transport enterprise. (JEL: 055; L 92). Résumé: Ce document traite des différentes politiques mises en ?euvre actuellement en Afrique subsaharienne en vue de la libéralisation, la déréglementation et la privatisation des entreprises de transport.     

The Political Economy of Urban Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan African cities in the late 1990s face a daunting set of problems including rapid growth, increasing poverty, deteriorating infrastructure, and inadequate capacity for service provision. Even as a renewed debate is shaping up around issues of urban development, there is little attention given to the question of urban food security. Whereas in the 1970s and 1980s, urban food problems in Africa commanded political attention, the nature of urban food insecurity in the 1990s is such that it has tended to lose political importance. This is largely because in the 1970s, the problem was one of outright food shortages and rapid price changes that affected large portions of the urban population simultaneously. The impact of structural adjustment, continued rapid growth, and an increase in poverty make urban food insecurity in the 1990s primarily a problem of access by the urban poor. Under circumstances where the urban poor spend a very large portion of their total income on food, urban poverty rapidly translates into food insecurity. The lack of formal safety nets, and the shifting of responsibility for coping with food insecurity away from the state towards the individual and household level has tended to atomize and muffle any political response to this new urban food insecurity. This paper briefly reviews urban food insecurity and generates a set of empirical questions for an analysis of food and livelihood security in contemporary urban sub-Saharan Africa, and then examines historical and contemporary evidence from Kampala, Uganda, and Accra, Ghana, to suggest some tentative conclusions.     

Fertility Change in Asia and Africa

There have been profound changes in fertility rates in Asia and Africa in the past two to three decades. The availability of new data allows a closer examination of fertility trends and underlying causes than has hitherto been possible. This collection brings together evidence on fertility decline in India, China, and a number of African countries. The papers examine the role of different explanatory factors in lowering fertility, including female education, declines in child mortality, urbanization, and the spread of mass media and “modern” consumer culture. The relative importance of female education as an explanatory factor vis-à-vis other factors is examined, with specific reference to India. The papers also explore the impact of the decline in birth rates for ageing and social security reform as well as health policy.