Intertemporal effects of consumption and their implications for demand elasticity estimates

Consumption of a good typically diminishes the marginal utility of consuming more, but for how long? This paper adapts a model of consumption capital to allow consumption to have a lasting effect that diminishes the marginal utility of future consumption. Estimates of the model find that it takes the 25th, median and 75th percentile of consumers 19, 32 and 43 days for their marginal utilities to return to pre-consumption levels, and they are forward-looking with respect to these effects. This generates intertemporal substitution of consumption that leads to an overestimate of the own-price elasticity of demand of ten percent when it is estimated using temporary price changes. In addition to these implications consumption effects share with those of durable and storable goods, consumption effects also raise concerns for capacity constrained industries because the timing of consumption affects capacity utilization. In the empirical application in this paper, price variation in one time period generates substantial changes in capacity utilization in that period, but minimal changes in other periods because the intertemporal substitution is spread over many time periods.     

DEMAND THRESHOLD,ZERO EXPENDITURE AND HIERARCHICAL MODEL OF CONSUMER DEMAND

Consumer expenditure surveys often show households reporting zero consumption of some commodities. Three reasons for this are recognized in the literature: (i) infrequency of purchase, (ii) a strong brand preference for differentiated products and (iii) misreporting. However, sometimes the number of households reporting zero consumption is seen to decline with income. To capture this phenomenon, which does not fall into any of the categories mentioned above, we propose a hierarchical preference structure and identify a class of recursive utility functions representing this structure. An empirical illustration based on Indian consumer expenditure data is provided.     

OPTIMAL CONSUMPTION AND PORTFOLIO DECISIONS WITH PARTIALLY OBSERVED REAL PRICES

We consider optimal consumption and portfolio investment problems of an investor who is interested in maximizing his utilities from consumption and terminal wealth subject to a random inflation in the consumption basket price over time. We consider two cases: (i) when the investor observes the basket price and (ii) when he receives only noisy observations on the basket price. We derive the optimal policies and show that a modified Mutual Fund Theorem consisting of three funds holds in both cases. The compositions of the funds in the two cases are the same, but in general the investor's allocations of his wealth into these funds will differ. However, in the particular case when the investor has constant relative risk-aversion (CRRA) utility, his optimal investment allocations into these funds are also the same in both cases.     

Lifetime investment and consumption with recursive preferences and small transaction costs

We investigate the effects of small proportional transaction costs on lifetime consumption and portfolio choice. The extant literature has focused on agents with additive utilities. Here, we extend this analysis to the archetype of nonadditive preferences: the isoelastic recursive utilities proposed by Epstein and Zin.     

The role of brand utilities: application to buying intention of fair trade products

The authors focus on the ethical consumption and propose a model of buying intention of fair trade products, including the utilities of the fair trade generic brand as direct determinants. The authors measure the functional and symbolic utilities provided by this brand, together with the attitude towards the commercialising organisations, consumer concern and perceived knowledge about fair trade issues. The model is tested through a structural equation model on a sample of members (students, lecturers and staff) of a ‘Fair trade University’. The results confirm that perceived functional utility is the most important antecedent of the buying intention, while the symbolic dimension has a significant but weaker explanatory power. Conversely, the consumer attitude towards the organisation has no influence. The authors also highlight the importance of communication and concern to stimulate consumer behaviour.     

STABILITY OF THE EXPONENTIAL UTILITY MAXIMIZATION PROBLEM WITH RESPECT TO PREFERENCES

This paper studies stability of the exponential utility maximization when there are small variations on agent's utility function. Two settings are considered. First, in a general semimartingale model where random endowments are present, a sequence of utilities defined on converges to the exponential utility. Under a uniform condition on their marginal utilities, convergence of value functions, optimal payoffs, and optimal investment strategies are obtained, their rate of convergence is also determined. Stability of utility‐based pricing is studied as an application. Second, a sequence of utilities defined on converges to the exponential utility after shifting and scaling. Their associated optimal strategies, after appropriate scaling, converge to the optimal strategy for the exponential hedging problem. This complements Theorem 3.2 in [Nutz, M. (2012): Risk aversion asymptotics for power utility maximization. Probab. Theory & Relat. Fields 152, 703–749], which establishes the convergence for a sequence of power utilities.     

A Discrete‐Time Intertemporal Asset Pricing Model: GE Approach with Recursive Utility

This paper studies the equilibrium characterization of asset pricing in a discrete‐time Lucas exchange economy (Lucas 1978) with the intertemporal recursive utility function of Epstein and Zin (1989). A general formulation of equilibrium asset pricing is presented. It is shown that risk aversion of a certainty equivalent corresponds to risk aversion in the intertemporal asset pricing model. The discrete‐time analogue of Ma's (1993) option pricing formula is derived in an i.i.d. environment, with which we prove an observational nonequivalence theorem in distinguishing the differences of the betweenness recursive utility functions and the expected utility functions. Additionally, when the consumption growth rate follows a first-order Markov process, it is shown that the observational nonequivalence result holds for Kreps–Porteus expected utility. Finally, as by-products, this paper also contains derivations of closed-form formulas for the aggregate equity (with endogenously determined yields), the term structure of interest rates, and European call options on the aggregate equity in a Markov setting.     

Optimal consumption and investment with liquid and illiquid assets

I consider an optimal consumption/investment problem to maximize expected utility from consumption. In this market model, the investor is allowed to choose a portfolio that consists of one bond, one liquid risky asset (no transaction costs), and one illiquid risky asset (proportional transaction costs). I fully characterize the optimal consumption and trading strategies in terms of the solution of the free boundary ordinary differential equation (ODE) with an integral constraint. I find an explicit characterization of model parameters for the well‐posedness of the problem, and show that the problem is well posed if and only if there exists a shadow price process. Finally, I describe how the investor's optimal strategy is affected by the additional opportunity of trading the liquid risky asset, compared to the simpler model with one bond and one illiquid risky asset.     

Matching the BRIC equity premium: A structural approach

The equity risk premium (ERP) in BRIC markets is, on average, significantly higher than that in the US market. This paper employs an endowment economy with recursive preferences and long-run risk to explain the ERP generated by a portfolio of BRIC equity indices. The combination of recursive preferences and long-run risk partially explains the BRIC ERP. It turns out that there is a puzzle with respect to BRIC data as well. This holds even if we account for high levels of aversion to consumption and utility risk and for the empirically observed autoregressive structure of US consumption and BRIC dividend growth.     

Treasury Bond risk and return, the implications for the hedging of consumption and lessons for asset pricing

All consumption-based models of asset pricing imply that the relation between the conditional mean and conditional volatility of any asset reflects the effectiveness of holding that asset as a hedge against intertemporal variation in the marginal utility of consumption. For Treasury Bonds of various maturities, we find significant positive relations. Our empirical findings support the conclusion that investors must sell bonds short to hedge shocks to marginal utility, because realized bond returns tend to be high (low) when investors least (most) desire an additional dollar of consumption. Implications for special cases of the general consumption-based model are also discussed.     

Convex duality for Epstein–Zin stochastic differential utility

This paper introduces a dual problem to study a continuous‐time consumption and investment problem with incomplete markets and Epstein–Zin stochastic differential utilities. Duality between the primal and dual problems is established. Consequently, the optimal strategy of this consumption and investment problem is identified without assuming several technical conditions on market models, utility specifications, and agent's admissible strategies. Meanwhile, the minimizer of the dual problem is identified as the utility gradient of the primal value and is economically interpreted as the “least favorable” completion of the market.     

LINKED RECURSIVE PREFERENCES AND OPTIMALITY

We study a class of optimization problems involving linked recursive preferences in a continuous‐time Brownian setting. Such links can arise when preferences depend directly on the level or volatility of wealth, in principal–agent (optimal compensation) problems with moral hazard, and when the impact of social influences on preferences is modeled via utility (and utility diffusion) externalities. We characterize the necessary first‐order conditions, which are also sufficient under additional conditions ensuring concavity. We also examine applications to optimal consumption and portfolio choice, and applications to Pareto optimal allocations.     

OPTIMAL DEMAND FOR CONTINGENT CLAIMS WHEN AGENTS HAVE LAW INVARIANT UTILITIES

We consider a class of law invariant utilities, which contains the rank‐dependent expected utility (RDU) and the cumulative prospect theory (CPT). We show that the computation of demand for a contingent claim when utilities are within that class, although not as simple as in the expected utility (EU) case, is still tractable. Specific attention is given to the RDU and to the CPT cases. Numerous examples are fully solved.     

The CCAPM meets Euro-interest rate persistence, 1960-2000

Euro-interest rates are well-known to be persistent, as are their differentials across countries for a given maturity. The international CCAPM implies that the rates are persistent because forecasts of national consumption growth or inflation are persistent too. We examine this prediction for a panel of countries. The standard CCAPM with power utility is augmented to allow for external habit, government consumption, and adaptive learning. In all cases, we find little evidence that the persistence in Euro-rates is consistent with the CCAPM.     

多式联运业务信息传递激励机制研究

针对综合服务型物流企业如何利用业务信息整合方面的能力,在国际多式联运业务中获得竞争优势这一问题,用委托-代理的模型对综合服务型物流企业多式联运业务信息传递中信息需求方与信息提供方的行为进行分析,通过可观察的效益指标对无法观察的努力程度的反应,以及效益指标对信息供需双方的边际效用等关系,探讨了综合服务型物流企业多式联运业务信息供需双方的协调激励机制,作为企业业务管理的决策参考。     

OPTIMALITY AND STATE PRICING IN CONSTRAINED FINANCIAL MARKETS WITH RECURSIVE UTILITY UNDER CONTINUOUS AND DISCONTINUOUS INFORMATION

We study marginal pricing and optimality conditions for an agent maximizing generalized recursive utility in a financial market with information generated by Brownian motion and marked point processes. The setting allows for convex trading constraints, non-tradable income, and non-linear wealth dynamics. We show that the FBSDE system of the general optimality conditions reduces to a single BSDE under translation or scale invariance assumptions, and we identify tractable applications based on quadratic BSDEs. An appendix relates the main optimality conditions to duality.     

A UNIVERSAL OPTIMAL CONSUMPTION RATE FOR AN INSIDER

We consider a cash flow   X ^{( c )} ( t )  modeled by the stochastic equation where B (·) and     are a Brownian motion and a Poissonian random measure, respectively, and   c ( t ) ≥ 0  is the consumption/dividend rate. No assumptions are made on adaptedness of the coefficients  μ, σ, θ  , and c , and the (possibly anticipating) integrals are interpreted in the forward integral sense. We solve the problem to find the consumption rate c (·), which maximizes the expected discounted utility given by Here  δ( t ) ≥ 0  is a given measurable stochastic process representing a discounting exponent and τ is a random time with values in (0, ∞), representing a terminal/default time, while  γ≥ 0  is a known constant.     

Habit formation and fiscal transmission in open economies

In this paper we analyze the ability of an open economy version of the neoclassical model to account for the time-series evidence on fiscal policy transmission. Revisiting the evidence, we find that i) government spending raises output, while inducing a simultaneous decline of investment and the current account and ii) the responses of output and investment are more muted in more open economies while current account deficits tend to be larger. Turning to the model, we explore the role of habit formation for fiscal policy transmission. Specifically, we show that the model can account for the evidence if consumption behavior is characterized by habit formation and the terms of trade adjust endogenously.     

Habit formation and fiscal transmission in open economies

In this paper we analyze the ability of an open economy version of the neoclassical model to account for the time-series evidence on fiscal policy transmission. Revisiting the evidence, we find that i) government spending raises output, while inducing a simultaneous decline of investment and the current account and ii) the responses of output and investment are more muted in more open economies while current account deficits tend to be larger. Turning to the model, we explore the role of habit formation for fiscal policy transmission. Specifically, we show that the model can account for the evidence if consumption behavior is characterized by habit formation and the terms of trade adjust endogenously.