Evolutionary Economics,Rational Expectations,and Monetary Policy

Wealth disparity is a critical factor in the perpetuation of blackwhite disparity in the United States. Intergenerational wealth transfers are the major determinant of household wealth formation. A program of reparations would acknowledge past and continued injustice, redress such injustices, and provide closure. Radical institutional analysis benefits this policy discussion in at least three areas: explaining the re-creation of discrimination; indicating the role of wealth disparity; and identifying the funding source for reparations. For centuries the economic surplus has enhanced white wealth relative to black wealth. A program of reparations suggests directing the surplus toward funding black-white equality.     

集聚与增长整合研究评述

集聚与增长整合研究是新经济地理学的理论前沿,也是对新增长理论的新拓展.通过在新经济地理框架中引入内生增长,集聚与增长整合模型使得我们能够明确地思考经济活动区位与经济增长速度之间的相互作用问题.整合模型阐释了集聚与增长之间的互动关系和机制,加深了我们对一体化现象和政策的理解,得到了比新经济地理更为丰富的结论.对该领域文献进行了系统梳理和分类,总结了其研究框架与方法,并叙述了理论演进的路径.     

Stochastic Growth Models and Their Econometric Implications

This article considers the consequences of explicitly allowing for stochastic technological progress and stochastic labor input in the discrete-time Solow-Swan and AK growth models. It shows that the capital-output ratio, but not output per capita, is ergodic irrespective of whether there is a unit root in technology, and thus is the more appropriate measure to use in the cross-sectional analysis of the growth process. Furthermore, the article derives the cross-sectional and time-series implications of the stochastic Solow-Swan model and contrasts these to those of its deterministic counterpart. Among these implications are that the mean of the capital-output ratio depends in a precise way not only on the saving rate and the growth rate of labor input, but also on the variance and higher-order cumulants of the capital-output ratio. Using the Summers-Heston data for seventy-two countries from 1960 to 1992, strong support is found for the predictions of the stochastic Solow-Swan model as compared to those of its deterministic counterpart (as well as those of the AK model), including a significant negative cross-sectional relationship between the mean and the variance of the capital-output ratio.     

经济增长的技术效率及其影响因素研究——以四川省为例

运用2000—2010年数据,基于对数型柯布—道格拉斯生产函数的随机前沿模型,对四川省区域经济增长效率及其影响因素进行研究。结果表明,四川省经济增长主要靠劳动力驱动,平均技术效率水平较低,经济处于规模报酬递减状态,且其区域差异有扩大的趋势。而基础设施建设和科研投入对经济增长效率具有促进作用,金融机构的贷款业务和政府财政支出对效率的提高具有抑制作用。     

Expectations and the Dynamic Feedback between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth

This paper seeks to analyze the dynamic feedback between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth – larger FDI promotes higher GDP, while higher GDP can be achieved with higher levels of FDI. We use panels and a sample of 19 Latin American countries to estimate a dynamic FDI and a dynamic GDP equation that jointly characterize the evolution of both variables. We find that the dynamics of GDP and FDI are mostly driven by the expectations. Shocks of GDP or FDI were found to play no role affecting the dynamics.     

A structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrained growth

This paper derives a balance-of-payments equilibrium growthrate analogous to Thirlwall's Law from a Pasinettian multi-sectormacrodynamic framework. The resulting formula, which we callthe Multi-Sectoral Thirlwall's Law, asserts that a country'sgrowth rate of per capita income is directly proportional tothe growth rate of its exports, with such a proportionalitybeing inversely (directly) related to sectoral income elasticitiesof demand for imports (exports). These income elasticities areweighted by coefficients that measure the share of each sectorin total imports and exports, respectively. It is shown thatseveral theoretical, empirical and policy implications can bedrawn from such a structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrainedgrowth.     

Growth Volatility and Technical Progress: A Simple Rent-seeking Model

Recent empirical evidence demonstrates that a higher level of technical progress is associated with a lower level of growth volatility and higher expected economic growth. This paper builds a simple growth model which combines the insights of Angeletos and Kollintzas (2000) and Tse (2000; 2001; 2002) with endogenous productivity growth and rent-seeking behavior to account for these stylized facts. Our model complements the literature that focuses on the heterogeneity of different agents.     

On Impatience, Economic Growth and the Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Dynamic Analysis of Resource Management

The paper presents a dynamic analysis of natural resource management and investigates some key factors that affect optimal management and resource conservation.Using a recursive specification of time preferences, we show how endogenous discounting and impatience can affect the motivation for both capital investments and environmental preservation. We examine the relationships between economic growth and environmental quality. Endogenous discounting provides new insights in the economic dynamics underlying the environmental Kuznets curve. By treating growth as endogenous, we examine how externalities and economic growth interact with each other. We investigate how economic development can contribute to an increased demand for environmental preservation. As an important new result, we also show how poverty can contribute to environmental degradation.     

中国特色的宏观调控:必须注重理性的供给管理

中国特色的经济社会发展道路,联系着中国特色的宏观调控基本要领,其中之一就是供给管理的特殊重要性。通过从总量调控不足以包打天下、中国经济客观上需要特别注重结构性对策等四个方面,勾画和分析了中国宏观调控必须特别注重理性的供给管理的特定原因,以及这种调控的地位和相关的基本要领。     

发展中小企业是解决中国就业问题的重要途径——一个基于中小企业理论和中国现实的分析

中小企业是解决中国就业问题的关键,劳动密集型特征决定其能够容纳更多的劳动力,中小企业和服务业的吸收劳动力的潜力巨大,市场广阔。     

能源技术创新与经济理性增长的协同机制研究

以生态经济哲学为研究逻辑,认为能源技术创新与经济可持续发展是一种战略协同机制。构建了能源技术创新与经济可持续发展的研究框架,认为能源技术创新的能源效率系统与能源消费系统是构成能源经济可持续发展的两个子系统,必须整合两者与经济增长的协整机制才利于能源经济系统的良好运行。最后提出了相应的战略政策建议。     

解决中国西部中小企业融资难路径选择

解决中国西部中小企业融资难问题是一项系统工程,需要各方面的相互配合,任何单项政策和措施的出台都不能从根本上改变西部中小企业融资难的现状。政府、金融机构和企业三方必须共同采取措施,通过三个体系的有效运作,从主、客观等方面逐步改变制约西部中小企业融资的不利因素,才能促进西部中小企业尽快驶入健康发展的轨道。     

浅析如何预防未来的通货膨胀

根据国家统计局的数据显示,自2011年1月份以来,中国居民消费价格指数CPI同比上涨了5.0%。其中,3月份居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比上涨5.4%,创下了32个月来新高。通胀预期明显上升,物价上涨压力也随之明显加大,这成为影响宏观经济增长以及社会稳定的首要问题,而货币政策是治理通货膨胀的最有效方式之一。主要分析了中国改革开放以后,发生的两次严重的通货膨胀,并总结了所实施的货币政策的优缺点。同时本轮通货膨胀与前两次有很多相似之处,在对引发通货膨胀的众多因素进行实证分析之后,根据之前的经验,可以对当前抑制通货膨胀的货币政策进行优化,从而达到更好的治理效果。     

Distribution Dynamics and Nonlinear Growth

This paper extends the distribution dynamics approach to the study of the shape of the growth process of a cross-section of countries. We first identify some empirical implications of a nonlinear Solovian growth model with multiple equilibria. These implications are then tested by a novel definition of the state space, which jointly considers income and growth rate. The main findings are that nonlinearity is a salient feature of the overall picture, and that the cross-section dynamics is compatible with the existence of multiple equilibria. We also discuss how the hypothesis of conditional convergence may be challenged in the light of our results.     

A Simple Model to Teach Business Cycle Macroeconomics for Emerging Market and Developing Economies

The canonical neoclassical model is insufficient to understand business cycle fluctuations in emerging market and developing economies. The author reformulates the model proposed by Aguiar and Gopinath (2007 Ahumada, I., and F. Butler. 2009. La enseñanza de la economía en México. Working Paper 672. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Google Scholar]) in a simple setting that can be used to teach business cycle macroeconomics for emerging market and developing economies at the undergraduate level. The simplified model is employed for qualitatively explaining facts such as the highly countercyclicality of the trade balance and the higher volatility of output and consumption compared with those observed in advanced countries.     

Long-term regional convergence in Mexico: A new look

This paper explores the convergence hypothesis of Mexican states with the national level and with one another from 1940 to 2015. Interpreting convergence as catching-up, we also capture other types of regular evolution, namely, invariance of the income gap over time, permanent absence of the gap, and steadily increasing gap (deterministic divergence). As a tool of econometric analysis, we use a novel model that describes convergence by asymptotically decaying trends and covers other types of evolution as particular cases. The results obtained suggest one or other type of regularity to be peculiar to roughly ca. 40% of income gaps both with the national level and between states. However, convergence is observed only in 6% to 15% of cases. Regarding convergence at the national level, an additional analysis by three 50-year subperiod shows that in many cases the type of evolution changes for the same state from one subperiod to another. Analyzing convergence between states, we find that convergence between neighboring states is more frequent than between other states; however, the effect of the neighborhood is not too strong.     

R&;D: A Small Contribution to Productivity Growth

In this article I evaluate the contribution of R&D investments to productivity growth. The basis for the analysis are the free entry condition and the fact that most R&D innovations are embodied. Free entry yields a relationship between the resources devoted to R&D and the growth rate of technology. Since innovators are small, this relationship is not directly affected by the size of R&D externalities, or the presence of aggregate diminishing returns in R&D after controlling for the growth rate of output and the interest rate. The embodiment of R&D-driven innovations bounds the size of the production externalities. The resulting contribution of R&D to productivity growth in the US is smaller than 3–5 tenths of 1% point. This constitutes an upper bound for the case where innovators internalize the consequences of their R&D investments on the cost of conducting future innovations. From a normative perspective, this analysis implies that, if the innovation technology takes the form assumed in the literature, the actual US R&D intensity may be the socially optimal.     

On the usefulness of the Contingent Valuation Method for resource damage assessments and ecosystem valuation

We re-examine Lynn and Vanhanen's argument that gross domestic product (GDP) depends upon IQ. We argue that their analysis suffers from three types of biases, each of which would tend to erroneously favor their hypothesis. Despite this stacked deck, we find that their results are rather fragile. Rather, education has a stronger impact on GDP than does IQ, whose effect we find to be insignificant. In other words, it is a country's actual human capital, rather than its potential human capital, which determines its GDP. In short, we are unable to replicate their results.     

产业结构变迁、要素重置与中国经济增长

笔者应用偏离-份额法(SSA)将要素重置效率从生产率中分解出来,实证研究了1978年～2008年中国产业结构变迁过程中要素重置对中国经济增长的贡献.在此基础上,利用分行业随机前沿生产函数,分别对1990年～2008年中国第二产业和第三产业内部结构变迁的要素配置效应进行了实证分析.研究发现,产业结构变迁带来的要素重置效应推动了中国经济增长,它对经济增长的贡献随时间的变动呈现出三阶段的变化趋势;在第二产业和第三产业的内部结构变迁过程中,轻工业和服务业增长的要素重置效应更为明显.     

The Social Significance of Consumption and the Elasticity of Output to Demand in the Long Run: A Reply to Gualerzi

Gualerzi's comment on Trezzini’s 2015 article (‘Growth without Normal Capacity Utilization and the Meaning of the Long-Run Saving Ratio.’) underestimates the role played by the long-run elasticity of output with respect to changes in aggregate demand in my analysis and in the demand-led processes of growth.