System‐Equation ADL Test for Threshold Cointegration with an Application to the Term Structure of Interest Rates

This paper proposes a new system‐equation test for threshold cointegration based on a threshold vector autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model. The new test can be applied when the cointegrating vector is unknown and when weak exogeneity fails. The asymptotic null distribution of the new test is derived, critical values are tabulated and finite‐sample properties are examined. In particular, the new test is shown to have good size, so the bootstrap is not required. The new test is illustrated using the long‐term and short‐term interest rates. We show that the system‐equation model can shed light on both asymmetric adjustment speeds and asymmetric adjustment roles. The latter is unavailable in the single‐equation testing strategy.     

How High do UK Interest Rates Need to Rise?

The Bank of England has inherited the responsibility for monetary policy at a difficult time. The UK economy has picked up strongly over the last year, but the pound has surged ahead. Consumer windfalls are also boosting the growth of domestic demand though their impact is uncertain. In this article, Andrew Sentance and Geoffrey Williams sift through the evidence relating to the Bank of England's interest rate dilemma. At present, interest rates appear close to their peak. But that judgement needs to be kept under review as new evidence unfolds about the momentum of domestic demand and the impact of the strength of the pound.     

激发学习兴趣,细化教学环节,增强培训课程实效性

"兴趣是最好的老师"。学习兴趣是学习动力产生的重要源泉之一。实训课程是教学内容的重要组成部分,是课堂教学的延伸和补充,是贯彻理论联系实际教学原则的重要途径,是培养学员运用知识的重要环节。[1]通过实训课程意义教学,明确实训课程与专业课程之间的关系;激发学习实训课程兴趣;细化实训课程环节(组织教学、精讲示范、学员操作、巡回指导、实训总结五个环节进行设置),可以增强实训课程实效性。     

A Long-run Disaggregated Cross-section and Time-series Demand System: An Application to Italy

In this paper, we study a long-run disaggregated model of consumption following an approach based on an integrated cross-section and time-series demand system. The study consists of three steps. First, a cross-section analysis is performed on data from household budget surveys. At this stage, the problem of 'zero expenditures' is solved. The cross-section results are transformed into variables for use in the time-series system of demand. Then, this demand system is built and estimated. Some results for Italy concerning both the cross-section and the time-series analyses are presented.     

The Effect of Monopoly Power on National Income, Wage Income and Interest Rates

Abstract . That part of business profits due to monopoly power or other forms of imperfect competition is capitalized into stock prices.Common stock is part of gross wealth, and as such provides a store of value for consumers against emergencies. A very simple graphical model is developed to show how interest rates, gross wealth holdings, and holdings of physical capital are jointly determined. In turn the levels of national income, property income, and wage income are determined once the stock of physical capital and the interest rate are known. In essence, capitalized monopoly profits substitute for physical capital, reducing the economy's stock of capital goods. Similar effects are produced by government debt.     

应该用哪一个模型来描述中国货币市场利率的动态变化

本文论证了双曲模型是描述中国货币市场利率动态变化的最佳单因子利率模型。由极大似然估计可以得到单因子利率模型的边际密度函数。双曲模型的边际密度和非参数估计得到的边际密度函数拟合较好,其表现远远优于几个常见的利率模型（CIR、CKLS和AG模型）。与较一般的Ait-Sahalia模型相比差别很小,但参数形式得到简化,似然比检验也支持这一点。双曲模型在刻画利率的均值回复特征方面还克服了AG模型的不足。     

短期利率对中国股市的非对称影响

本文应用马尔科夫状态转换模型将中国股票市场划分为牛市、震荡市与熊市三种市场状态,并发现在熊市状态下,短期利率波动对股票收益并没有显著性影响,而在牛市与震荡市中则有显著的负向影响。此外,短期利率波动与股票市场风险不存在显著性的相关关系。本文结论对于分析宏观因素对股票市场的影响具有重要意义,从一个新的角度阐述了利率变动与股市震荡之间存在的非线性关系。     

Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and Term Structure Using a Three‐regime Threshold Unit Root VECM: An Application to the Swiss ‘Isle’ of Interest Rates*

In this article, a three‐regime multivariate threshold vector error correction model with a ‘band of inaction’ is formulated to examine uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) and expectation hypothesis of the term structure (EHTS) of interest rates for Switzerland. Combining both UIRP and EHTS in a model that allows for nonlinearities, we investigate whether the Swiss advantage is disappearing with respect to Europe. Our results favour threshold cointegration and show that both hypotheses hold, at least in one of the three regimes of the process for Switzerland/Germany. The same is not true between Switzerland and the United States.     

Monetary Policy and the Zero Bound to Interest Rates: A Review1

Abstract.  This paper reviews the literature on what the zero bound to nominal interest rates implies for the conduct of monetary policy. The aim is to evaluate the risks of hitting the zero bound; and to evaluate policies that are said to be able to reduce that risk, or policies that are proposed as means of helping the economy escape if it is in a zero bound 'trap'. I conclude that policies aimed at 'cure' are arguably more uncertain tools than those aimed at 'prevention', so prevention is a less risky strategy for policymakers. But since the risks of hitting the zero bound seem quite small anyway, and the risks of encountering a deflationary spiral smaller still, it is conceivable that inflation objectives that typify modern monetary regimes already have more than enough insurance built into them to deal with the zero bound problem.     

浅谈语文教学学困生的兴趣培养

兴趣是学习的关键,语文的学习更是如此,新课程以一切为了学生的发展为宗旨,广泛开展学生学习方式的变革。但语文采用新课程后,学生好的变得更好,差的反而变得更差,造成学困生无心向学,从而提出如何提高语文学困生的兴趣是一个极具意义的研究问题。     

半非参数模型选择研究以及在上交所回购利率中的应用

基于模型动态稳定性的要求,本文改进了半非参数（SNP）模型的选择方法,使所选择的SNP模型既能很好地拟合真实样本又能模拟出与真实样本统计特征相近的时间序列。其次,本文得到了二维随机过程情形下赫米特展开项的理论结果。第三,实证结果表明：上交所旧质押式回购利率初始、插值后样本两组数据的最优SNP模型均为Semiparametric AR(1)-GARCH(1,1)（即11118000）模型,但是两者的系数估计值却不相同。最后,本文的实证结果表明了所提出的SNP模型选择改进方法的合理性与稳定性。     

Interest Rate Feedback Rules in an Open Economy with Forward Looking Inflation

With the adoption of an explicit inflation target in the UK, there has been renewed interest in the properties of alternative interest rate feedback rules. Following Svensson (1999) a literature examining the relative merits of inflation and price level targeting has also developed. In this paper we compare the stabilization properties of the two forms of feedback rule that have been used most frequently in the literature and which give rise to price level and inflation targeting, respectively. The model in which we embed our rules is significantly richer than those considered in the price level targeting literature and this allows us to explain why the relative performance of the rules is dependent upon the nature of the shock considered and whether or not excess inflation is defined in terms of consumer or output price inflation.     

Practical Considerations for Choosing Between Tobit and SCLS or CLAD Estimators for Censored Regression Models with an Application to Charitable Giving*

Practical considerations for choosing between Tobit, symmetrically censored least squares (SCLS) and censored least absolute deviations (CLAD) estimators are offered. Practical considerations deal with when a Hausman test is better than a conditional moment test for judging the severity of a misspecification, the need to bootstrap the sampling distributions of the Hausman tests, what to look for in a graphical examination of the residuals and the limited value of SCLS. The practical considerations are applied to a model of the intergenerational transmission of charitable giving using new data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). The paper shows how to use relative distribution methods to calculate CLAD‐based marginal effects on the observable dependent variable.     

Identification in Structural Vector Autoregressive Models with Structural Changes,with an Application to US Monetary Policy

A growing line of research makes use of structural changes and different volatility regimes found in the data in a constructive manner to improve the identification of structural parameters in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs). A standard assumption made in the literature is that the reduced form unconditional error covariance matrix varies while the structural parameters remain constant. Under this hypothesis, it is possible to identify the SVAR without needing to resort to additional restrictions. With macroeconomic data, the assumption that the transmission mechanism of the shocks does not vary across volatility regimes is debatable. We derive novel necessary and sufficient rank conditions for local identification of SVARs, where both the error covariance matrix and the structural parameters are allowed to change across volatility regimes. Our approach generalizes the existing literature on ‘identification through changes in volatility’ to a broader framework and opens up interesting possibilities for practitioners. An empirical illustration focuses on a small monetary policy SVAR of the US economy and suggests that monetary policy has become more effective at stabilizing the economy since the 1980s.     

Evolving Market Efficiency with an Application to Some Bulgarian Shares

With new technically advanced methods and computers at our disposal, the efficient market hypothesis is once again being debated. At the same time, we are witnessing an unprecedented growth in both existing and new financial markets. These new markets are often in economies which have just recently embraced free market economics; we term these stock markets infant markets. Such stock markets are obviously not efficient in allocating the supply of savings to productive capital. We do not test whether or not these infant markets are informationally efficient, but instead examine whether and how they are becoming more efficient. We propose modelling the excess returns of individual securities using a multi-factor model with time-varying coefficients and generalised auto-regressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) errors. If the markets are becoming more informationally efficient or the agents are learning, we would expect this to manifest itself as the time-varying coefficients becoming more stable as time increases. We test our model using data on four Bulgarian shares. First, we estimate an AR(2) model and a GARCH-M(1,1) model for the shares. Then, we estimated our AR(2) model with time varying coefficients and GARCH type errors. We find varying levels of efficiency and varying speeds of movement towards efficiency within our sample of four shares. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Measures in DEA with an Application to the Malmquist Index

This paper shows the importance of goal vectors G in measuring and dealing with DEA inefficiencies. It emphasizes the advantages of the family of additive relative to the traditional oriented DEA models and shifts the primary emphasis to measuring inefficiency rather than efficiency. This new (raw) inefficiency measure RIN incorporates both the traditional DEA efficiency and the DEA slacks and provides the background for a new approach to the Malmquist Index. The final section points out some deficiencies in existing computational procedures for selecting G and calls for continued research on the selection process, as well as showing a role for G in returns to scale studies.     

国际税务筹划的理论依据和我国跨国经营企业的现实对策

随着我国加入WTO,实施"走出去"战略,我国境内从事跨国经营的企业将越来越多。因此,有必要厘清国际税收筹划的概念、法律依据、存在原因以及可能的障碍和风险等理论问题,为我所用,并研究我国跨国经营企业在财务管理方面的具体对策。     

Rankings Methodology for International Comparisons of Institutions and Individuals: an Application to Economics in Australia and New Zealand

Abstract.  The objectives of this paper are threefold. First, we critically survey and analyse the different methodologies that have been adopted in the rankings literature. Second, using journal articles included in the ECONLIT database and on the basis of two criteria – one based on citations and the other on perceptions of journal quality, we rank economics teaching departments in Australia and New Zealand for 1988–2002 and 1996–2002 and for individual academic economists for the periods 1988–2002, 1988–1995 and 1996–2002. Furthermore, we identify individual star performers and recognize them in a designated 'Hall of Fame' for 1988–2002. Third, our methodology enables us to make international comparisons on total and per capita bases. Previous multi-country ranking studies in economics do not rank economics departments. They provide rankings based on total publications in economics in universities regardless of whether the economists are in the economics departments or in other departments. Thus, no rankings on per capita bases are provided. We correct this shortcoming by providing total and per capita rankings and analysing the correlations between total and per capita rankings. This is the first study to examine whether the size of the economics department matters with regard to productivity.     

FDH Directional Distance Functions with an Application to European Commercial Banks

Weextend Free Disposable Hull (FDH) efficiency analysis towardsthe general directional distance function framework. The profitinterpretation of directional distance functions is extendedto the non-convex FDH technologies. In addition, we derive anefficient enumerative algorithm for computing distance measuresin Free Disposable Hull (FDH) technologies, which applies tothe entire (infinitely large) family of directional distancefunctions. A simple numerical example and an application to Europeancommercial banks illustrate the algorithm.     

如何提高大学生学习兴趣——以《生态整治案例分析》课程为例

"知之者,不如好之者",兴趣和爱好是一个人学习的动力,也是世界上最好的老师。学生的成长和教学质量的提高起关键作用的是学习兴趣。本文结合《生态整治案例》的课程教学,分析了在课程教学中影响学生兴趣的主要因素,并在此基础上提出了相应的对策建议,以期为《生态整治案例》的教学提供新的思路。