How High do UK Interest Rates Need to Rise?

The Bank of England has inherited the responsibility for monetary policy at a difficult time. The UK economy has picked up strongly over the last year, but the pound has surged ahead. Consumer windfalls are also boosting the growth of domestic demand though their impact is uncertain. In this article, Andrew Sentance and Geoffrey Williams sift through the evidence relating to the Bank of England's interest rate dilemma. At present, interest rates appear close to their peak. But that judgement needs to be kept under review as new evidence unfolds about the momentum of domestic demand and the impact of the strength of the pound.     

激发学习兴趣,细化教学环节,增强培训课程实效性

"兴趣是最好的老师"。学习兴趣是学习动力产生的重要源泉之一。实训课程是教学内容的重要组成部分,是课堂教学的延伸和补充,是贯彻理论联系实际教学原则的重要途径,是培养学员运用知识的重要环节。[1]通过实训课程意义教学,明确实训课程与专业课程之间的关系;激发学习实训课程兴趣;细化实训课程环节(组织教学、精讲示范、学员操作、巡回指导、实训总结五个环节进行设置),可以增强实训课程实效性。     

A Long-run Disaggregated Cross-section and Time-series Demand System: An Application to Italy

In this paper, we study a long-run disaggregated model of consumption following an approach based on an integrated cross-section and time-series demand system. The study consists of three steps. First, a cross-section analysis is performed on data from household budget surveys. At this stage, the problem of 'zero expenditures' is solved. The cross-section results are transformed into variables for use in the time-series system of demand. Then, this demand system is built and estimated. Some results for Italy concerning both the cross-section and the time-series analyses are presented.     

The Effect of Monopoly Power on National Income, Wage Income and Interest Rates

Abstract . That part of business profits due to monopoly power or other forms of imperfect competition is capitalized into stock prices.Common stock is part of gross wealth, and as such provides a store of value for consumers against emergencies. A very simple graphical model is developed to show how interest rates, gross wealth holdings, and holdings of physical capital are jointly determined. In turn the levels of national income, property income, and wage income are determined once the stock of physical capital and the interest rate are known. In essence, capitalized monopoly profits substitute for physical capital, reducing the economy's stock of capital goods. Similar effects are produced by government debt.     

应该用哪一个模型来描述中国货币市场利率的动态变化

本文论证了双曲模型是描述中国货币市场利率动态变化的最佳单因子利率模型。由极大似然估计可以得到单因子利率模型的边际密度函数。双曲模型的边际密度和非参数估计得到的边际密度函数拟合较好,其表现远远优于几个常见的利率模型（CIR、CKLS和AG模型）。与较一般的Ait-Sahalia模型相比差别很小,但参数形式得到简化,似然比检验也支持这一点。双曲模型在刻画利率的均值回复特征方面还克服了AG模型的不足。     

Monetary Policy and the Zero Bound to Interest Rates: A Review1

Abstract.  This paper reviews the literature on what the zero bound to nominal interest rates implies for the conduct of monetary policy. The aim is to evaluate the risks of hitting the zero bound; and to evaluate policies that are said to be able to reduce that risk, or policies that are proposed as means of helping the economy escape if it is in a zero bound 'trap'. I conclude that policies aimed at 'cure' are arguably more uncertain tools than those aimed at 'prevention', so prevention is a less risky strategy for policymakers. But since the risks of hitting the zero bound seem quite small anyway, and the risks of encountering a deflationary spiral smaller still, it is conceivable that inflation objectives that typify modern monetary regimes already have more than enough insurance built into them to deal with the zero bound problem.     

浅谈语文教学学困生的兴趣培养

兴趣是学习的关键,语文的学习更是如此,新课程以一切为了学生的发展为宗旨,广泛开展学生学习方式的变革。但语文采用新课程后,学生好的变得更好,差的反而变得更差,造成学困生无心向学,从而提出如何提高语文学困生的兴趣是一个极具意义的研究问题。     

Interest Rate Feedback Rules in an Open Economy with Forward Looking Inflation

With the adoption of an explicit inflation target in the UK, there has been renewed interest in the properties of alternative interest rate feedback rules. Following Svensson (1999) a literature examining the relative merits of inflation and price level targeting has also developed. In this paper we compare the stabilization properties of the two forms of feedback rule that have been used most frequently in the literature and which give rise to price level and inflation targeting, respectively. The model in which we embed our rules is significantly richer than those considered in the price level targeting literature and this allows us to explain why the relative performance of the rules is dependent upon the nature of the shock considered and whether or not excess inflation is defined in terms of consumer or output price inflation.     

Measures in DEA with an Application to the Malmquist Index

This paper shows the importance of goal vectors G in measuring and dealing with DEA inefficiencies. It emphasizes the advantages of the family of additive relative to the traditional oriented DEA models and shifts the primary emphasis to measuring inefficiency rather than efficiency. This new (raw) inefficiency measure RIN incorporates both the traditional DEA efficiency and the DEA slacks and provides the background for a new approach to the Malmquist Index. The final section points out some deficiencies in existing computational procedures for selecting G and calls for continued research on the selection process, as well as showing a role for G in returns to scale studies.     

Evolving Market Efficiency with an Application to Some Bulgarian Shares

With new technically advanced methods and computers at our disposal, the efficient market hypothesis is once again being debated. At the same time, we are witnessing an unprecedented growth in both existing and new financial markets. These new markets are often in economies which have just recently embraced free market economics; we term these stock markets infant markets. Such stock markets are obviously not efficient in allocating the supply of savings to productive capital. We do not test whether or not these infant markets are informationally efficient, but instead examine whether and how they are becoming more efficient. We propose modelling the excess returns of individual securities using a multi-factor model with time-varying coefficients and generalised auto-regressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) errors. If the markets are becoming more informationally efficient or the agents are learning, we would expect this to manifest itself as the time-varying coefficients becoming more stable as time increases. We test our model using data on four Bulgarian shares. First, we estimate an AR(2) model and a GARCH-M(1,1) model for the shares. Then, we estimated our AR(2) model with time varying coefficients and GARCH type errors. We find varying levels of efficiency and varying speeds of movement towards efficiency within our sample of four shares. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

国际税务筹划的理论依据和我国跨国经营企业的现实对策

随着我国加入WTO,实施"走出去"战略,我国境内从事跨国经营的企业将越来越多。因此,有必要厘清国际税收筹划的概念、法律依据、存在原因以及可能的障碍和风险等理论问题,为我所用,并研究我国跨国经营企业在财务管理方面的具体对策。     

FDH Directional Distance Functions with an Application to European Commercial Banks

Weextend Free Disposable Hull (FDH) efficiency analysis towardsthe general directional distance function framework. The profitinterpretation of directional distance functions is extendedto the non-convex FDH technologies. In addition, we derive anefficient enumerative algorithm for computing distance measuresin Free Disposable Hull (FDH) technologies, which applies tothe entire (infinitely large) family of directional distancefunctions. A simple numerical example and an application to Europeancommercial banks illustrate the algorithm.     

Rankings Methodology for International Comparisons of Institutions and Individuals: an Application to Economics in Australia and New Zealand

Abstract.  The objectives of this paper are threefold. First, we critically survey and analyse the different methodologies that have been adopted in the rankings literature. Second, using journal articles included in the ECONLIT database and on the basis of two criteria – one based on citations and the other on perceptions of journal quality, we rank economics teaching departments in Australia and New Zealand for 1988–2002 and 1996–2002 and for individual academic economists for the periods 1988–2002, 1988–1995 and 1996–2002. Furthermore, we identify individual star performers and recognize them in a designated 'Hall of Fame' for 1988–2002. Third, our methodology enables us to make international comparisons on total and per capita bases. Previous multi-country ranking studies in economics do not rank economics departments. They provide rankings based on total publications in economics in universities regardless of whether the economists are in the economics departments or in other departments. Thus, no rankings on per capita bases are provided. We correct this shortcoming by providing total and per capita rankings and analysing the correlations between total and per capita rankings. This is the first study to examine whether the size of the economics department matters with regard to productivity.     

Capital Market Reactions to Accounting Earnings Announcements in an International Context

This study examines the association of four factors with U.S. securities market reactions to annual earnings announcements by non-U.S. multinational corporations and by a control sample of U.S. firms. The four factors examined are firm size, the magnitude of earnings change, timeliness, and the presence or absence of a concurrent dividend announcement. The non-U.S. corporations are from five countries - Israel, Japan, Netherlands, Philippines, and United Kingdom. Results for the group of non-U.S. firms indicate that firm size and timeliness are significant explanatory variables. For the control sample of U.S. firms, only size is significant.     

如何提高大学生学习兴趣——以《生态整治案例分析》课程为例

"知之者,不如好之者",兴趣和爱好是一个人学习的动力,也是世界上最好的老师。学生的成长和教学质量的提高起关键作用的是学习兴趣。本文结合《生态整治案例》的课程教学,分析了在课程教学中影响学生兴趣的主要因素,并在此基础上提出了相应的对策建议,以期为《生态整治案例》的教学提供新的思路。     

Derivative Usage by Nonfinancial Firms in Sweden with an International Comparison

This paper provides survey evidence on the use of derivatives among Swedish nonfinancial firms. The evidence is compared with the findings by Bodnar et al. (1995, 1996) and Berkman et al. (1997) for the USA and New Zealand, respectively. By comparing firms in Sweden with firms in New Zealand and the USA differences in derivative usage can be related to differences in their underlying economies and history of trading in derivatives. Among other issues, the results showed that (1) 52% of the nonfinancial firms in Sweden used derivatives compared with 53% in New Zealand and 39% in the USA; (2) the usage of derivatives was more common among larger than among smaller firms; (3) the principal use of derivatives was for hedging purposes and those firms that engaged in speculative activity tended to be larger rather than smaller firms; and (4) lack of knowledge about derivatives within the firm was the issue of most concern for financial directors. The latter was in contrast with the USA where lack of knowledge was the issue of least concern.     

世界微波炉巨头格兰仕实现“惊险一跃”

2008,恰逢中国加入世贸组织的第七个年头;七年来,在与海外跨国公司短兵相接的竞争中,历练和拼杀出了一批诸如格兰仕、联想等具备国际核心竞争力的企业巨擎;这些企业,被誉为"中国血统"的跨国公司;七年来,与改革开放同龄的世界微波炉龙头格兰仕,在全球市场开疆拓土、筚路蓝缕,从输出产能到输出技术,从输出产品到输出品牌,成为"中国血统"跨国公司的典范。     

我国会计准则与国际会计准则公允价值运用的比较

新会计准则引入了公允价值计量属性,在整体上与国际会计准则保持了高度的趋同性,但是也做了审慎的改进。主要从公允价值的应用范围和会计处理中的具体运用角度比较了我国会计准则公允价值运用与国际会计准则的差异。     

Exchange Rates,Non-Traded Goods and the Terms Of Trade: An Empirical Application for New Zealand

This article formulates and tests for New Zealand a model of exchange rate determination focusing on non-tradeable goods and terms-of-trade shifts. We emphasize the equilibrium properties of this framework and, in this context, estimate an error correction model where adjustment in response to deviation from equilibrium is an important determinant of short-run exchange rate movements. We estimate the model using a new data series on the supply of non-tradeable goods. The model has desirable empirical characteristics, including a plausible error correction equation, strong support for cointegration and rapid convergence to the long-run equilibrium. Moreover, a variety of diagnostic statistics, including parameter stability tests andout-of-sample forecasting performance, indicate the equation is a parsimonious representation of the data. These results provide considerable support for the emphasis on ‘real’ determinants of nominal exchange rates, in this case fluctuations in non-traded goods supply and terms-of-trade.     

我国物流业振兴中的产业国际竞争力生成模型构建探讨

在全球金融危机背景下分析影响物流产业国际竞争力的因素,创新性地构建了物流业国际竞争力生成模型,进而借助该模型对我国物流业国际竞争力的形成过程进行分析,提出增强我国物流产业国际竞争力的政策建议.