Free Trade Agreements and Foreign Direct Investment: The Role of Endogeneity and Dynamics

This article studies the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTA) on outbound foreign direct investment (FDI). From one perspective, FTA may promote FDI since FTA aim to promote economic activity between countries. However, lower trade barriers may lower the incentive of firms to conduct FDI. Therefore, the net impact is an empirical question. Using a panel of countries for the years 1990–2006, this article effectively controls for participation in an FTA when analyzing the impact on outbound FDI. The lengthy time series also allows us to examine effectively the dynamic nature of the relationship. Failing to account for endogeneity and dynamics would likely generate inaccurate conclusions regarding the impact of FTA on outbound FDI. Our analysis finds that outbound FDI is either unrelated to participation in an FTA or is negatively affected.     

Antidumping as Strategic Trade Policy under Asymmetric Information

Trade liberalization under GATT/World Trade Organization (WTO) has been partly offset by an increase in antidumping protection, possibly due to the inclusion of sales below cost in the definition of dumping. This article investigates the domestic government's antidumping duty choice in an asymmetric information framework, in which the foreign firm's cost is observed by the domestic firm, but not by the government. We show that by designing a tariff schedule contingent on firms' cost reports and accompanied by a threat to collect additional information for report verification, the domestic government may not only be able to extract the true cost information, but also succeed in implementing the full‐information, governmental welfare‐maximizing duty. The antidumping framework within GATT/WTO may thus not only offer the means to pursue strategic trade policy disguised as fair trade policy, but it also helps overcome informational problems with regard to correctly determining the optimal strategic trade policy.     

Endogenous Lobbying and Protection under Monopolistic Competition

Abstract

This paper studies the “Protection for Sale” model in the setting of monopolistic competition drawing on the quadratic sub-utility model. This model generates two new findings: (1) the average cross-price elasticity, in particular, only among foreign varieties in a sector negatively influences the level of protection; (2) the total number of domestic varieties over one of the foreign varieties in a sector, a new proxy for political power of domestic lobby groups in that sector, positively influences the level of protection.     

Endogenous timing in trade policy games: Should governments use countervailing duties?

Endogenous Timing in Trade Policy Games: Should Governments Use Countervailing Duties? - Trade policy under oligopoly is analysed in two multistage games with endogenous timing of trade policy. At the beginning of the games, the domestic and foreign governments choose whether to set trade policy at stage one or two. It is shown that in the subgame perfect equilibrium of both games, the domestic government will set its tariff (and production subsidy) at stage one and the foreign government its export subsidy at stage two. The domestic country commits not to use a countervailing duty in both games, and both countries are better off than when they set trade policy simultaneously.     

Econometric Analysis of the India–Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement*

This paper investigates whether the India–Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement (ISLFTA) has had trade creation or trade diversion effects on the rest of the world. Using data on tariffs at the six‐digit level of the Harmonized System classification for the period 1996 to 2006, the methodology of the present paper follows a study on the North American Free Trade Agreement by Romalis (2005 ) We use the commodity and time variation in the tariff preferences allowed under ISLFTA to identify its effect on sourcing of different products from the ‘control country’ to the ISLFTA region. Using a fixed effects model, we find that the ISLFTA has had small trade creation effects in the control countries.     

Antidumping jumping: Reciprocal antidumping and industrial location

Antidumping Jumping: Reciprocal Antidumping and Industrial Location. — Antidumping policies are often justified as legitimate actions by governments in their efforts to protect domestic producers from unfair foreign competition. The authors investigate the impact of antidumping rules on firms’ production decisions as to how much and where to produce. Antidumping measures may have unforeseen effects if they induce direct foreign investment and consequently increase domestic competition. The authors therefore focus on location choice and consider the strategies of national governments attempting to advance the interests of their citizens through antidumping legislation. The analysis also has implications for the effects of market integration policies, such as Europe 1992.     

Economic integration, market size and the welfare effects of trade liberalisation

Economic Integration, Market Size and the Welfare Effects of Trade Liberalisation. — This paper examines the welfare effects of regional and global integration in a model where market size matters. Regional integration leads to higher welfare in the countries of a preferential trading arrangement (PTA), but to lower welfare outside. In case the countries also decide to form a customs union (CU), both countries will experience further gains if the creation of the CU means that the average external trade barriers are raised. In turn, the outside country will in this case experience further welfare losses. If it retaliates and creates a trade war, this will lower welfare in all countries. In contrast, global integration mostly benefits both PTA countries and outside countries.     

International Trade and R&D Investment: Evidence from Chinese Manufacturing Firms

A current concern for China's long‐term growth prospect is whether China can become an innovative economy and achieve industrial upgrading to compensate for the gradually declining competitiveness resulting from low‐cost labor. The present study examines this issue by exploring how trade participation impacts on the R&D investment of manufacturing firms through various channels. Merging China's Annual Manufacturing Survey Dataset and the Chinese Customs Dataset allows us to study such a relationship at the individual firm level. The empirical results suggest that channels such as geographical diversification of export markets, share of imports from high‐income countries, average unit value of imports, number of intermediate goods and capital goods imports, and the trade regime are significant factors that influence firm‐level R&D investment. The study discusses the policy implications of the empirical findings in relation to industrial and trade policies that may be potentially beneficial for China's transition towards an innovative economy.     

Foreign entry and domestic welfare

Foreign Entry and Domestic Welfare. — This paper discusses the consequences for domestic welfare of entry by foreign firms into a domestic market. A simple Bertrand model with differentiated products and a Cournot model with homogeneous goods are investigated and it is shown that welfare is non-monotonic in foreign entry in both cases. A “little” entry is harmful but a “lot” is beneficial. It is shown that this depends on the number of domestic firms in the industry.     

Rent sharing in the multi-fibre arrangement: The case of Mexico

Rent Sharing in the Multi-Fibre Arrangement: The Case of Mexico. —This paper investigates the existence of market power and the distribution of rents in the market for Mexico’s exports of apparel to the United States under the Multi-Fibre Arrangement (MFA). In the case of Mexico, rents from MFA restrictions are probably very small. The adjusted price of Mexican exports is consistently below the price for U.S. production, indicating that rent sharing may be taking place. Alternative explanations for the price difference are tested. The final result indicates that rent sharing may exist in woven shirts and underwear. In particular, U.S. importers may receive up to 49 percent of available rents.     

China's Free Trade Ports: Effective Action Against the Threat of De‐globalization

With sluggish external demand and increasing trade protectionism by the USA and the European Union, China is facing severe challenges in implementing its deeper, ongoing reforms. To respond actively to such challenges, the Communist Party of China's 19th National Congress proposed to “promote a new pattern of all‐round opening up.” In particular, the establishment of free trade ports is considered an important means to realize deeper integration with the world economy. This paper discusses the background, the motivation, the possible challenges as well as a feasible path for the successful implementation of free trade ports in China. Based on the international experience, the construction of free trade ports in China requires freer trade in goods, high mobility of talent and free capital flow.     

Trade regimes and spillover effects of FDI: Evidence from Uruguay

Trade Regimes and Spillover Effects of FDI: Evidence from Uruguay. — This paper examines differences in the character and impact of FDI entering Uruguay during import substitution, pursued until 1973, and the subsequent more outwardoriented trade regime. Regression analysis shows that the labor productivity of local firms is positively related to the presence of older import-substituting MNCs in their industry. The presence of foreign affiliates established after 1973 has no apparent impact on local productivity, but seems to raise the likelihood that local firms engage in exporting. This may be a sign of export spillovers, indicating that local firms may pick up some exportrelated skills from the operations of outward-oriented foreign MNCs.     

Assessing the Efficacy of Consumer Boycotts of U.S. Target Firms: A Shareholder Wealth Analysis

This article analyzes the effectiveness of 125 U.S. boycotts from 1978 to 2017. On average, the results suggest that actual consumer boycott calls against U.S. target firms (treatment firms) had a negative and statistically significant effect on the shareholder wealth of U.S. target firms. The synthetic control method and the placebo tests confirmed that the negative cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) observed here are robust and not due to idiosyncratic shocks unrelated to the announced boycotts. Negative and statistically significant boycott effects were also found for boycott threats and categorical issues related to union issues, animal rights, living wages in less‐developed countries, racial/sexual discrimination, ideological issues, and political/religious boycotts. The results also show that firms with a higher level of competition and advertising activity experienced larger negative boycott effects; and firms with higher net income observed mitigated boycott effects.     

Integration and the export behaviour of firms: Trade costs,trade volumes and welfare

Integration and the Export Behaviour of Firms: Trade Costs, Trade Volumes and Welfare. - This paper analyses a model in which, because of fixed costs associated with exporting, only a proportion of firms in an industry engage in international trade. Economic integration (a reduction in trade costs) increases the proportion of firms trading and reduces the total number of active firms as relatively small non-trading firms are replaced by larger trading firms. There are welfare gains from integration, but because of the adverse effects of integration on the total population of firms these gains are smaller than in the standard model where all firms export.     

Trade Destruction and Trade Diversion: Evidence from China

Over the past three decades, we have seen a dramatic increase in the incidence of temporary trade barriers such as antidumping duties and countervailing duties. China has been at the receiving end of a large number of such measures. In this paper, we study how China's exports to its major trade partners have been affected when its major trade partners have used these measures either against China or against other countries. We find that Chinese exports to the country that imposed an antidumping duty decreased by approximately 35 percent. At the same time, an antidumping duty used by the importing country that was directed towards other countries but not against China led to an approximate 30‐percent increase in China's exports to the policy‐imposing country. These results remain robust across various specifications. Our findings have important policy implications. In particular, the magnitude of these effects highlights why it is important to curb the recent widespread use of these barriers.     

Corruption Via Media Capture: The Effect of Competition

In this article, we compare a government's optimal choice of whether to engage in corruption by capturing the media outlets through bribery in two alternative media market structures: monopoly versus duopoly. While there is an extra bribe claimant in a media duopoly relative to monopoly, it may also be harder for each firm to individually expose corruption when the rival co‐opts with the government. We find that when the latter effect is stronger than the former, media is captured at lower bribes under duopoly relative to monopoly and in such instances media competition facilitates rather than hindering corruption.     

Why Chinese Exports Face So Many Trade Remedy Actions: An Empirical Study Based on Multi‐country and Multi‐industry Data

This paper offers a comprehensive analysis of the reasons for the large number of trade remedy actions taken against China. Using a multi‐country and multi‐industry dataset, the present paper shows that the macroeconomic situation of China's partners has a great influence on the probability of trade frictions arising with China. Moreover, the more powerful the industry is, the more likely it is to take trade remedy actions against China. The empirical results reveal that China has been hurt under the operating mechanism of the WTO, and the number of free trade agreements is negatively related to the initiation and approval of trade remedy actions. Basically, the determinants for countervailing and double remedy measures are identical, while they are different from determinants of antidumping measures. Accordingly, strengthening communication with trade partners will alleviate friction between China and its trade partners. Meanwhile, making use of foreign lobbies' power, actively integrating into the international trading system and participating in regional trade agreements are effective ways for China to deal with the “new normal” of trade frictions.     

Quality Competition and Pricing‐to‐Market: A Unified Framework for the Analysis of Bilateral Unit Values

This article presents a unified framework for analyzing two factors that have been independently studied as determinants of unit values in international trade: product differentiation by quality (which suggests that unit values should be positively correlated with exporters' per capita income) and pricing‐to‐market (which suggests they should be positively correlated with importers' per capita income). No previous work has considered both exporter and importer income effects and allowed these effects to vary by product. On a large sample of bilateral unit values for 2005, we find that about 56% of all Harmonized System (HS)‐6 products demonstrate both significant exporter‐income effects and importer‐income effects, with the former predominating in prevalence and magnitude. Distance‐related effects appearing directly in prices appear significantly larger than one would expect as a result of shipping margins.     

Immigrant Specificity and the Relationship between Trade and Immigration: Theory and Evidence

Studies routinely document that immigrant employment concentrates in non‐traded goods sectors and that many immigrants have low inter‐sectoral mobility. We consider these observed characteristics of immigrant employment with regard to the question of how immigration affects a nation's pattern of production and trade. We model an economy producing three goods; one is non‐traded. Domestic labor and capital are domestically mobile but internationally immobile. Allowing that some new immigrants will become specific to the non‐traded goods sector, the model indicates that the effects of immigration on output and trade depend importantly on the sectoral pattern of employment of both new and existing immigrants. Empirical investigation in a panel data set of OECD countries supports the model's prediction that immigration raises the output of non‐traded goods. Consistent with the model, we also find that immigration and trade are complements. Given its empirical support, the model's implications for immigration policy are then discussed.