Does the Median Voter or Special Interests Determine State Highway Expenditures? Recent Evidence

Using cross-sectional data from 50 states of the United States and the District of Columbia for two different time periods, this paper examines the degree to which special interests or the median voter determine state highway expenditures. In addition to finding that previous estimates of the determinants of state highway expenditures are robust, we find that that special interests that were important in 1984 were no longer significant nearly 20 years later. Like the previous literature, we conclude that the reduced form median voter model performs well in explaining state highway expenditures.     

Does Terrorism Affect the Stock‐Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries

Using daily stock and bond returns data from four European countries—France, Germany, Spain, and Great Britain—that have been the victims of significant terrorist activity, this study addresses the issue of whether transnational and/or domestic terrorist attacks have affected in any significant manner the time‐varying stock–bond covariance, their returns, and their variances. Stock and bond markets can be influenced and determined not only by the usual array of macroeconomic factors but also by security shocks, such as a terrorist incident, that have the potential to affect investors' sentiment and portfolio allocation decisions. The issue at hand is addressed using a VAR(p)‐GARCH(1,1)‐in‐mean model, and the results reported herein indicate that terrorist attacks trigger a flight‐to‐safety effect primarily in France and Germany and to a smaller degree in Great Britain and Spain.     

Does Other Comprehensive Income Volatility Influence Credit Risk and the Cost of Debt?

We examine the usefulness of other comprehensive income (OCI) to debt investors in nonfinancial companies. Motivated by Merton's (1974) real options framework, we construct a measure of incremental OCI volatility, designed to capture the effect of OCI on overall firm asset volatility, which is a primary driver of credit risk in Merton's (1974) model. We find that the volatility of incremental OCI influences the likelihood of default, credit ratings, and the cost of debt. Overall, our evidence suggests that creditors use information from OCI in their assessment of firm credit risk and in pricing debt contracts.     

How Does Corruption Influence the Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth?

Abstract

We investigate the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in 130 countries from 1995 to 2008, considering the role of corruption in each country as an absorptive factor. The estimation results indicate that although FDI alone does not promote economic growth, it has a significant effect on economic growth if the interaction term between FDI and corruption is considered. Specifically, FDI has a positive impact on economic growth when corruption is severe, but a negative impact if corruption is below a certain threshold.     

What Does a High School Diploma Get You? Employment, Race, and the Transition to Adulthood

We compare the employment of African American and white youth as they transition to adulthood from age 18 to 22, focusing on high school graduates and high school dropouts who did not attend college. Using OLS and hazard models, we analyze the relative employment rates, and employment consistency, stability, and timing, controlling for a number of factors including family income, academic aptitude, prior work experience, and neighborhood poverty. We find white high school graduates work significantly more than all other youth on most measures; African American high school graduates work as much and sometimes less than white high school dropouts; African American dropouts work significantly less than all other youth. Findings further suggest that the improved labor market participation associated with a high school diploma is higher over time for African Americans than for white youth.     

Does School Lunch Fill the “SNAP Gap” at the End of the Month?

This article investigates the relationship between the timing of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefit payments and participation in school lunch and breakfast using the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey. An event study approach examines participation over the five‐day window before and after the SNAP payment. We find that school lunch participation decreases by 17–23 percentage points immediately after the SNAP payment among 11–18 year olds while breakfast drops by 19–36 percentage points. The decline begins the day prior to payment. We find no effects for 5–10 year olds. Models examining participation over the full SNAP month using individual fixed effects yield similar findings. Among teenagers, participation in school lunch and breakfast decline in the first two weeks of the SNAP month, increasing afterward. Non‐school meals show the opposite pattern. Overall, results indicate SNAP households rely more on school lunch and breakfast toward the end of the SNAP month.     

Does IMF conditionality benefit lenders?

Conclusions The purpose of this paper has been to assess whether official and private lenders benefit from IMF participation in rescheduling sovereign LDC debt via the Paris Club. If IMF participation increases the expected value of any existing or newly rescheduled official or private debt contracts, then lenders benefit. The transmission process can be via the immediate liquidity the IMF provides through various loan facilities, which allows for debt service payments to be met in a timely fashion, and/or through the increased ability of the sovereign to meet future debt service payments due to the conditions attached to IMF liquidity. The results from this paper suggest that the provision of immediate IMF liquidity provides a benefit to lenders but that the attached conditions do not. These results were obtained for a large sample of 84 LDCs over the sample period 1978-1987 and may differ when specific cases are considered. IMF participation reduced the average spread over LIBOR by 155 to 179 basis points, based on a simple model relating interest spreads to default probabilities. Heavily indebted sovereign borrowers may have experienced larger reductions. The design and implementation of IMF conditions has been criticized in the literature because they confer little benefit on the sovereign borrower. Our results support the consensus view that the conditions themselves have little effect. However, our contribution results from seeing the issue from the perspective of rational lenders who expend resources to evaluate IMF conditionality programs.     

Do Households Prefer Small School Districts? A Natural Experiment

Some education reformers have proposed breaking up large urban school districts, thereby moving to a more efficient scale, increasing school choices, and promoting school competition. This article tests whether households expect these effects and whether they value them. It considers the effect on real estate prices of the surprise breakup of the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) into 11 minidistricts in April 2000. We estimate households' reaction to this reform in a difference‐in‐differences setting that controls for any unobserved spatial effects unaffected by the announcement. We find that households valued this decentralization, with a 2–3 percentage point increase in housing values in the LAUSD area over pre‐existing trends, compared with control districts. The effect is highest in wealthier neighborhoods but otherwise homogenous within the LAUSD area. The results suggest that households believe that decentralization would make schools more effective and that they respond to signals about schools' future.     

Does Government Intervention Affect Banking Globalization?

Using data from British and American banks, we provide empirical evidence that government intervention affects the global activities of individual banks along three dimensions: depth, breadth and persistence. We examine depth by studying whether a bank's preference for domestic, as opposed to external, lending (funding) changes when it is subjected to a large public intervention, such as bank nationalization. Our results suggest that, following nationalization, non-British banks allocate their lending away from the UK and increase their external funding. Second, we find that nationalized banks from the same country tend to have portfolios of foreign assets that are spread across countries in a way that is far more similar than those of either private bank from the same country or nationalized banks from different countries, consistent with an impact on the breadth of globalization. Third, we study the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to examine the persistence of the effect of large government interventions. We find weak evidence that upon entry into the TARP, foreign lending declines but domestic does not. This effect is observable at the aggregate level, and seems to disappear upon TARP exit. Collectively, this evidence suggests that large government interventions affect the depth and breadth of banking globalization, but may not persist after public interventions are unwound.     

Does International Diversification Really Diversify Risks?

This paper demonstrates that large adverse shocks are more highly correlated with one another than positive shocks across national stock markets of industrialized economies. This finding is robust if we allow for an ARCH process or if we exclude the data of October 1987. It is shown that the negative skewness of the world market portfolio is primarily responsible for such time-varying correlations of national stock markets. We propose to model the world market portfolio return by using the extended QGARCH model of J. Y. Campbell and L. Hentschel (1992, J. Finan. Econ.31, 281–318). The finding suggests that the U.S. investors' benefit from international portfolio diversification could be far more limited than is commonly thought. J. Japan. Int. Econ., March 2002, 16(1) pp. 109–134. Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Kunitachi-city, Tokyo 186–8603, Japan; and Institute of Policy and Planning Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: F30, G11, G15.     

Does IMF Support Accelerate Inflation Stabilization?

This paper analyzes the effects of International Monetary Fund (IMF) arrangements on the timing of inflation stabilization programs. By providing financial support that may allow the reduction of inflation without incurring politically unacceptable economic costs, the IMF can hasten stabilization. But, since support can also reduce the costs of inflation, it may instead delay it. Empirical results obtained for 10 countries that suffered from chronic inflation fail to support the hypothesis that IMF financial assistance accelerates stabilization. Rather, they indicate that other factors have a greater impact on the timing of stabilizations: greater fragmentation of the political system delays stabilization, while a higher level of inflation hastens it. JEL Classification Numbers: E63, E31, F35     

Does GDP Distort Mexico's Economic Performance?

Between 1961 and 1980, Mexico's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita grew nearly 3.50% annually. During the 1980s, however, it shrank about 0.50% per year. GDP figures suggest that there was sustained economic growth for the 1960s and 1970s, changing suddenly to contraction in the 1980s. This impression may be misleading. GDP does not account for housework or informal production outside households. Further, GDP also may be distorted by transactional activities, which are expenditures to support transactions, not actual output consumed. This study recalculates output for Mexico for the 1961-1990 sample period, controlling for transactional activities and nonmarket production. We find that GDP misstates Mexico's “actual” economic growth. In the 1960s, the economy expanded more quickly than GDP suggests. But in the 1970s, growth was less than half that of the 1960s. The economy indeed slumped in the 1980s, but not as terribly as the official figures indicate. Mexico's economy did not collapse suddenly in the early 1980s; actual economic growth had slowed dramatically during the 1970s.     

Does government intervention affect banking globalization?

Using data from British and American banks, we provide empirical evidence that government intervention affects the global activities of individual banks along three dimensions: depth, breadth and persistence. We examine depth by studying whether a bank's preference for domestic, as opposed to external, lending (funding) changes when it is subjected to a large public intervention, such as bank nationalization. Our results suggest that, following nationalization, non-British banks allocate their lending away from the UK and increase their external funding. Second, we find that nationalized banks from the same country tend to have portfolios of foreign assets that are spread across countries in a way that is far more similar than those of either private banks from the same country or nationalized banks from different countries, consistent with an impact on the breadth of globalization. Third, we study the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to examine the persistence of the effect of large government interventions. We find weak evidence that upon entry into the TARP, foreign lending declines but domestic does not. This effect is observable at the aggregate level, and seems to disappear upon TARP exit. Collectively, this evidence suggests that large government interventions affect the depth and breadth of banking globalization, but may not persist after public interventions are unwound.     

Can Financial Incentives for Regional Education Authorities Reduce School Dropout?

This paper investigates the effect of a new type of financial incentive in education targeted at regional authorities. Previous studies have focused on financial incentives for students, teachers or schools. We identify the effect by exploiting the gradual introduction of a new policy aimed at reducing school dropout in the Netherlands. The introduction of the policy in 14 out of 39 regions and the use of a specific selection rule for the participating regions allow us to estimate local difference-in-differences models. Using administrative data for all Dutch students in the year before and the year after the introduction of the new policy we find no effect of the financial incentive scheme on school dropout. In addition, we find suggestive evidence for manipulation of outcomes in response to the program.     

Are There Racial Gaps in High School Leadership Opportunities? Do Academics Matter More?

Participation in high school sports and leadership activities is typically associated with later adult earnings premia. In stark contrast to the large but diminishing racial disadvantage found in other measures of educational opportunity, this analysis of high school leadership development finds few examples of racial disadvantage in historical 1960 data, but an emerging disadvantage to black female students between 1972 and 2004. Earnings regressions reveal positive earnings premia to black women who engaged in sports and leadership activities as adolescents, but not to black men. Particularly large premia to higher math scores (or penalties to lower math scores) among black workers are also observed. These findings call into question any world-view in which U.S. wages are a simple function of observable worker qualifications, and highlight the continued need to monitor equitable access to educational opportunities in U.S. schools.