全球气候变暖语境下中国低碳农业发展研究文献综述

自工业革命以来,人类生产和生活方式过度地依赖能源与科技,长期开放式与高耗能运作累积的一个显著结果就是大量排放的温室气体所导致的温室效应使全球气候变暖。在气候变暖的维度上,农业是把双刃剑,它既有碳排放功能又有碳汇功能,因此发展低碳农业是减源增汇的必然途径。文章梳理了中国发展低碳农业研究的主要成果,包括低碳农业与农产品安全、低碳农业技术体系的构建、低碳农业的生态产业链与发展现状等,并预期了可能的研究方向。     

CDM下的森林碳汇项目给我国林业发展带来的机遇

全球气候变化问题引起了国际社会的广泛关注,其中温室气体排放成为关注的焦点,<京都议定书>为各国制定了减排标准.减少大气中温室气体含量的手段主要包括减少排放源和增加吸收汇.森林具有强大的碳汇功能,因此许多国家借助CDM项目中的林业碳汇项目来完成减排承诺,为我国林业发展提供了契机.     

描述CO_2排放量的数学模型与影响因素的分解分析

一、前言气候变化和全球变暖问题正引起世界各国的关注。尽管导致全球变暖的原因十分复杂,但是,一个重要的不容否认的因素,是由于日益增长的人类活动打破了原有的自然平衡所造成的环境后果。在过去的一个世纪中,人类在工业化过程中创造了辉煌的物质文明的同时,也给自然界造成了不可逆转的变化。温室效应及其全球气候变暖问题与臭氧层破坏、生物多样性保护等问题一起构成了当今全球环境问题的主要内容。世界环境与发展大会通过的《21世纪工程》,以及限制排放温室气体以延缓全球气体变暖进程的《气候变化公约》等具有法律约束力的国际公…     

六氟化硫:最可怕的温室气体

正随着全球气候变暖现象愈发受到关注,温室气体、节能减排、低碳生活这些词汇开始频繁出现在公众面前。在社会公众的一般认识里,二氧化碳才是主要的温室气体,也是导致全球气候变暖的罪魁祸首。但是从科学的角度而言,六氟化硫才是人类已知的最可怕的温室气体,其助长全球气候变暖的威力是二氧化碳的23 900倍。控制六氟化硫气体的无序排放,已经刻不容缓。因此,除了加强对新型绝缘材料的研发强度外,也需要提高全民对六氟化硫的科学认识,全面加强对六氟化硫主要应用行     

全球甲烷浓度不断升高北大核心

甲烷在我们日常生活中比较常见,不少家庭做饭、烧水用的天然气就是以它为主要成分的,但很多人并不知道它还是一种具有较高“全球变暖潜势”的温室气体,在20年时间范围内,其温室效应能力是二氧化碳的72倍。根据科学家测算,目前甲烷对全球气候变暖的贡献率已达到30%,是仅次于二氧化碳的第二大温室气体。目前全球甲烷排放中有60%与人类活动密切相关,人为甲烷排放中有40%来自农业部门,35%来自能源部门,20%来自废弃物处理环节。     

东北地区温室气体减排的经济对策——以吉林省为例

温室气体减排已作为约束性指标列入我国国民经济和社会发展中长期规划,是我国各省级行政单位的工作目标之一。东北地区是我国高碳排放区,温室气体减排压力较大。以2005年和2010年吉林省温室气体排放量核算数据为依据,分析吉林省温室气体排放总量、排放强度及主要排放来源,提出控制能源产业碳排放量过快增长、发展低碳能源产业和碳汇项目等节能减排的经济对策。     

中国在后京都时代的气候政策研究

人类高碳的生产生活方式导致近百年来全球气候异常，应对全球变暖、减少温室气体排放是世界共同关注的问题。中国作为发展中大国，面临经济发展与温室气体减排的双重任务，如何通过内外政策争取更多发展空间对我国的可持续发展至关重要。     

发展低碳农业经济初探

人们一谈到低碳经济,都是讲工业的多,讲农业的少,讲城市的多,讲乡村的少。事实上,农业生产在全球温室气体循环中占有重要地位,农业既是碳汇也是温室气体的排放源。一方面,农业的温室气体排放量是全球温室气体排放的第二大重要来源,另一方面,由于温室效应而引起的气候变化又严重影响到农业生产。在发展低碳经济方面,农业潜力巨大。增强对发展低碳农业经济的重要性认识,积极探索发展低碳农业经济是建设现代农业的一项重要工作。     

全球变暖与三江平原湿地的变化

全球变暖已经成为不争的事实。沼泽湿地是各种主要温室气体的源和汇,在全球气候变化中有着特殊的地位和作用。三江平原湿地是我国最大的沼泽分布区,有着重要的生态意义。本文总结了全球气候变化大背景下,在三江平原湿地开展的科学研究的内容及成果。     

全球减排博弈下的中国策略思考

由于温室气体排放导致了全球变暖,减排就成了应对气候变化的主流措施。随着经济快速增长,中国已经成为世界上最大的温室气体排放国。作为一个发展中国家,中国的工业化、城市化进程正处于加速发展时期,仍需要较长时间才能完成,对排放空间的需求强烈。在国际温室气体减排的谈判中,美国等发达国家坚持认为中国应该承担减排义务。特别是随着全球应对气候变化的展开,发达国家之间的大国合作更为紧密,日益联手对发展中国家特别是中国施压。文章主要讨论了在应对气候变化的全球博弈中,中国应对战略中应该注意的三方面策略:完全不承担强制减排义务,在不久的将来不再可能;无条件承担强制减排义务势必给中国的发展带来严重负面影响;"有条件"地承担强制减排义务,将在推动全球减排行动的同时,促进中国低碳发展。     

国际碳交易的经济学理论分析

二氧化碳等温室气体的过度排放造成的全球气温上升已经威胁到人类的生存和发展。对国际碳交易的内涵及经济学理论进行了分析,对深入理解、研究国际碳交易理论基础和实践经验具有非常现实的作用和意义。     

辽中县低碳农业现状分析和发展思路的探讨

全球气候变暖的趋势下,世界各国都在寻找与之相关解决方式,调整经济发展战略。农业生产与全球气候变化息息相关,农业是温室气体的第二大重要来源,如何减少农业温室气体排放量已成为当务之急。县域经济中农业占有相当大的比重,如何在县域农业中发展低碳农业,也已成为新农村建设研究的新课题。通过调查研究、现场走访的方式,总结了辽中县种植业、畜牧业、农副产品加工及农业旅游等的现状,发现县内在低碳农业方面的工作存在明显不足,根据这些实际情况提出了发展低碳农业的对策及具体措施,如发展新能源和设施农业等,旨在改善辽中县农村生态环境,为新农村建设提供科学决策,促进现代农业由高碳经济向低碳经济转型。     

A strategic analysis of global warming: Theory and some numbers

We model the global warming process as a dynamic commons game in which the players are countries, their actions at each date produce emissions of greenhouse gases, and the state variable is the current stock of greenhouse gases. The theoretical analysis is complemented by a calibration exercise. The first set of results establishes theoretically, and then with illustrative numbers, the over-emissions due to a “tragedy of the commons.” The power of simple sanctions to lower emissions and increase welfare is then examined as is the effect of cost asymmetry. Finally, a complete theoretical charactrization is provided for the best equilibrium, and it is shown that it has a very simple structure; it involves a constant emission rate through time.     

Sustainable Development and a Dwindling Carbon Space

Curbing global warming by setting long term maxima for temperature rise or concentrations of greenhouse gases defines spaces within which further emissions of these gases are to remain (referred to here as ‘carbon spaces’). This paper addresses questions related to how to share between countries the carbon space and/or efforts to stay within it, in the perspective of sustainable development; different allocation mechanisms are reviewed, responding to criteria such as ‘responsibility’ for climate change, ‘capability’ to engage in abating it, and ‘potential’ or future contribution. The carbon space remaining at any time will depend on effective mitigation up till that time, and will condense if more stringent maxima are to be set; per capita this space becomes smaller with rising population. Sharing the carbon space in a fair way requires “convergence” of currently widely unequal per capita emissions. If the world is to stay within the carbon space consistent with <2° warming, then developed economies—the wealthiest sources of greenhouse gases should quickly and deeply engage in mitigation. Also, substantial mitigation is to take place in developing countries and that this will require substantial support to developing countries (financially, technologically). Changing development paths can make a major contribution to climate change mitigation; this requires changes in investment, production and consumption patterns. Green New Deals as proposed in the context of a widened response to the current economic crisis could become a first phase of a fundamental transition towards a decarbonised global economy worldwide. Concerns to do with equity as well as sustainability must be incorporated and integrated into coherent transitory strategies.     

International trade and the negotiability of global climate change agreements

This paper examines the incentives for individual countries to engage in global negotiations to reduce carbon emissions in order to prevent global warming. To reduce carbon emissions a country reduces consumption of its own good. The direct effect of reducing its own consumption is that consumption declines and with it utility. However, reducing carbon emissions also lowers global temperatures and that increases utility. The trade-off between these two effects determines the incentive for countries to reduce carbon emissions. We find that larger countries are more likely to participate because a given percentage reduction in output will result in a larger reduction in global temperatures. Longer time horizons also lead to greater willingness to participate. The presence of international trade makes carbon reduction agreements more likely because reducing the output of your own (export) good has a positive terms of trade effect which reduces the cost of output reduction.     

Economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions

Recent empirical research has examined the relationship between certain indicators of environmental degradation and income, concluding that in some cases an inverted U-shaped relationship, which has been called an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), exists between these variables. Unfortunately, this inverted U-shaped relationship does not hold for greenhouse gas emissions. One explanation of the absence of EKC-like behavior in greenhouse gas emissions is that greenhouse gases are special pollutants that create global, not local, disutility. But the international nature of global warming is not the only reason that prevents de-linking greenhouse gas emissions from economic growth. The intergenerational nature of the negative impact of greenhouse gas emissions may have also been an important factor preventing the implementation of greenhouse gas abatement measures in the past. In this paper we explore the effect that the presence of intergenerational spillovers has on the emissions–income relationship. We use a numerically calibrated overlapping generations model of climate–economy interactions. We conclude that: (1) the intertemporal responsibility of the regulatory agency, (2) the institutional capacity to make intergenerational transfers and (3) the presence of intergenerationally lagged impact of emissions constitute important determinants of the relationship between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions.     

低碳经济综述

随着气候变化影响的日益显著,全球变暖问题越来越多的受到国际关注,由于全球对化石燃料的过度依赖,工业和人们生活中的废气排放日益增加,由此导致的空气污染和温室效应,使得碳排放已经成为人类生存环境的最大威胁。基于全球变暖和环境的日益恶化对人类生存和发展的严重挑战,低碳经济模式将成为未来经济发展的必然选择。     

Consequences of irreversibilities on optimal intertemporal CO2 emission policies under uncertainty

This paper investigates how irreversibilities affect the optimal intertemporal accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere under uncertainty. More precisely, the evolution of the future temperature is assumed to follow an Itô-process with the drift provided by greenhouse gas emissions. This paper considers two different kinds of irreversibilities: of emissions (i.e., CO₂ once dissolved into the air cannot be collected later) and of stopping. These issues are investigated first (in the tradition of the real option literature) as pure stopping problems and then allowing for a continuous choice of emissions. Implications for global warming are: an irreversible stopping of greenhouse gas emissions is never optimal in a continuous framework and yields in the real option framework a less conservationist stopping rule in which uncertainty increases the stopping threshold (i.e. works against conservation).     

气候变暖的第一影响因素及我国的应对

全球气候变暖已是人们逐渐接受的事实,由于大气中二氧化碳等气体含量的升高引起的温室效应是导致全球气温变暖的显著原因。经过统计分析发现,大气中碳含量的增加与全球森林面积减少、化石能源燃烧增加的碳排放高度相关,但年均0.4%增速的大气中的碳含量是与按年均0.2%速度递减的全球森林面积存在显著的统计上的因果关系,乱砍滥伐、开发耕地等导致的全球森林面积的减少是大气中二氧化碳含量增加的格兰杰因果关系原因,从而构成全球变暖的第一影响因素。二氧化碳排放量的增加一直比较平稳,年增速在2.2%左右,它与大气中的碳含量的增加虽然相关,但因果关系统计上并不显著,也不是其格兰杰因果关系原因,这一结论与IPCC的报告中二氧化碳排放量是全球变暖的主要原因的结论并不完全一致。据此,我们提出中国应对全球变暖时谨防陷入"碳排放陷阱"。