Non-Bayesian Testing of a Stochastic Prediction

We propose a method to test a prediction of the distribution of a stochastic process. In a non-Bayesian, non-parametric setting, a predicted distribution is tested using a realization of the stochastic process. A test associates a set of realizations for each predicted distribution, on which the prediction passes, so that if there are no type I errors, a prediction assigns probability 1 to its test set. Nevertheless, these test sets can be "small", in the sense that "most" distributions assign it probability 0, and hence there are "few" type II errors. It is also shown that there exists such a test that cannot be manipulated, in the sense that an uninformed predictor, who is pretending to know the true distribution, is guaranteed to fail on an uncountable number of realizations, no matter what randomized prediction he employs. The notion of a small set we use is category I, described in more detail in the paper.     

An Axiomatic Foundation of the Multiplicative Human Development Index

The aggregation formula in the Human Development Index (HDI) was changed to a geometric mean in 2010. In this paper, we search for a theoretical justification for employing this new HDI formula. First, we find a maximal class of index functions, what we call quasi‐geometric means, that satisfy symmetry for the characteristics, normalization, and separability. Second, we show that power means are the only quasi‐geometric means satisfying homogeneity. Finally, the new HDI is the only power mean satisfying minimal lower boundedness, which is a local complementability axiom proposed by Herrero et al. (2010).     

Axiomatic characterizations of the Choquet integral

Summary. The Choquet integral is an integral part of recent advances in decision theory involving non-additive measures. In this article we present two new axiomatic characterizations of this functional. Received: January 27, 1997; revised version: April 28, 1997     

Axiomatic Characterization of the Quadratic Scoring Rule

In the evaluation of experiments often the problem arises of how to compare the predictive success of competing probabilistic theories. The quadratic scoring rule can be used for this purpose. Originally, this rule was proposed as an incentive compatible elicitation method for probabilistic expert judgments. It is shown that up to a positive linear transformation, the quadratic scoring rule is characterized by four desirable properties. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Axiomatic foundations of Hicksian measures of welfare change

The aggregate Hicksian measures Σλ_iEV_i and Σλ_iCV_i are characterized by three simple properties. One property concerns the ranking of two states. The measures are Paretian. A second property expresses the postulate that welfare changes are to be evaluated in money. The third one deals with redistributions of incomes. Distributional considerations are taken into account by employing variable distributional weights λ_i.     

Axiomatic reference-dependence in behavior toward others and toward risk

Summary. This paper considers the applicability of the standard separability axiom for both risk and other-regarding preferences, and advances arguments why separability might fail. An alternative axiom, which is immune to these arguments, leads to a preference representation that is additively separable in a reference variable and the differences between the other variables and the reference variable. For other-regarding preferences the reference variable is the decision-maker’s own payoff, and the resulting representation coincides with the Fehr-Schmidt model. For risk preferences the reference variable is initial wealth, and the resulting representation is a generalization of prospect theory.Received: 28 April 2004, Revised: 27 April 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: D81, D64.An earlier version of this paper was titled “An Axiomatic Characterization of the Fehr-Schmidt Model of Inequity Aversion.” I am grateful to Rachel Croson, Jill Stowe, and Karl Vind for helpful comments. Financial support was provided by the Private Enterprise Research Center, the Program in the Economics of Public Policy, and the Program to Enhance Scholarly and Creative Activities.     

Updating toward the signal

Modelers frequently assume (either implicitly or explicitly) that an agent??s posterior expectation of some variable lies between their prior mean and the realization of an unbiased signal of that variable. We call this property updating toward the signal (UTS). We show that if the prior and signal error densities are both symmetric and quasiconcave then UTS will occur. If, for a given prior, UTS occurs for all symmetric and quasiconcave error densities, then in fact the prior must be symmetric and quasiconcave. Similar characterizations are derived for two additional updating requirements that are strictly weaker than UTS.     

The Evolution of European Central Bank Independence: An Updating of the Masciandaro and Spinelli Index

In an earlier paper in this journal, Masciandaro and Spinelli computed an index of central bank independence for a number of countries on the basis of the institutional arrangements in place in 1990. Since then the situation has changed and therefore that work needs an updating. This shows that the Bundesbank remains the most independent central bank, but several other central banks have increased their independence: see the cases of Spain, Italy, France, the Netherlands and Great Britain. The Bank of Spain has registered the biggest improvement and the Bank of Portugal remains the least independent.     

基于公理化设计的农业供应链战略设计

分析了与供应链战略紧密相关的战略定位、价值定位和绩效定位3个问题,介绍了战略供应链管理的运作、战略和标准3个层次,阐明了供应链战略设计的重要性;在介绍公理化设计理论的基础上,阐述了基于公理化设计的农业供应链战略分解设计方法和农业供应链战略的开发步骤。     

一体化外包管理模式探讨

随着社会分工的日益精细化,外包作为改善企业绩效的一种管理实践,正在被越来越多的企业所采用。在外包实践中,对外包的有效管理是外包成功与否的关键。提出了一体化外包管理模式,该模式对外包风险问题的分析和控制,有助于降低外包风险,提高外包的效果,对发包商具有重要的现实指导意义。     

An Economic Model of Whistle-Blower Policy

"Whistle-blowing" is an increasingly common element of regulatoryenforcement programs and one that is encouraged by recent legislationin the United States and elsewhere. We examine how responsiveregulators should be to whistle-blower tip-offs and how severeshould penalties be for wrongdoers detected in this way. Competingpsychological theories as to what motivates employees to becomewhistle-blowers are operationalized as alternative behavioralheuristics. Optimal policy depends upon the motives attributedto whistle-blowers—which of the theories you subscribeto—but is not in general characterized by maximal penaltiesnor routine pursuit of complaints, even when pursuit is costless.(JEL K42, K32)     

An Asymmetric Information Model of Lockouts

This note proposes an asymmetric information model of collective bargaining where the firm has the bargaining power and the union the private information. Results show that the firm may use lockouts to induce the union to reveal its private information.     

An Australian Housing Model*

A 13-equation model is developed which captures the essential economic features of the housing industry in Australia. The importance of speculative builders and investors is recognized. Empirical results are presented for two key equations. The asset price of existing dwellings (including land) owned by persons is explained by a portfolio choice or generalized asset adjustment model. This asset price then feeds in as a determinant of new private construction, along with construction costs of new dwellings, financial variables and a measure of demand-supply imbalance.     

Updating Beliefs Under Risk and Uncertainty

It is possible to represent decision makers’ beliefs on the algebra , rather than alone. Doing so allows us to represent decision makers’ perceptions of risk on one part of the algebra, and their perceptions of uncertainty on the other. This paper shows that such beliefs can be updated in a ‘Bayesian’ manner and that the resulting representation of beliefs is reasonable relative to some other approaches. The model of belief formation and decision making is then used to explain some instances of anomalous economic behaviour.     

Updating,self-confidence,and discrimination

In this laboratory experiment, we show that people incorporate irrelevant group information when evaluating others. Individuals from groups that perform badly on average receive low evaluations, even when it is known that the individuals themselves perform well. This group-bias occurs both in a gendered setup, where women form the worse performing group, and in a non-gendered setup.The type of discrimination that we identify is neither taste-based nor statistical; it is rather due to conservatism in updating beliefs, and is even more pronounced among women. Furthermore, self-confident men overvalue male performers. When our data is used to simulate a job promotion ladder, we observe that women are driven out quickly.     

品牌延伸价值的评估

品牌竞争随着市场竞争的白热化，逐渐成为企业和商家关注的热点。如何利用品牌，创造品牌是企业在竞争中战胜对手的重要运营策略和手段。在品牌战略的实施中，品牌逐步成为现代企业重要的营销手段．其深刻内涵以及实施条件值得人们进行深入探讨。分析了影响品牌延伸的多种因素，并运用多层次综合评价方法对品牌延伸价值进行了分析。     

An Overlapping Generations Model of Climate-Economy Interactions

A numerically calibrated overlapping generations model of climate change and the world econommy is examined in this paper. In the absence of intergenerational transfers, efficient rates of greenhouse gas emissions abatement rise from 16% in the present to 25% in the long run, while mean global temperature increases by 7.4°C relative to the preindustrial norm. A utilitarian optimum, which attaches equal weight to each generation's life-cycle utility, yields abatement rates that rise from 48% to 89%, with a long-run temperature increase of 3.4°C. A second-best utilitarian path, in which intergenerational transfers are by assumption institutionally infeasible, also supports stringent abatement measures.     

An Overlapping-generations Model of Escape Clause Protection

The paper explores the efficiency consequences of using temporary protection to ease adjustment following an unexpected, permanent improvement in a country's terms of trade. In the model, workers trade off the potentially higher wage that the export sector has to offer with a lower job acquisition rate. An unexpected improvement in the terms of trade surprises old workers who cannot undo the decisions they made while young. Some old workers who had not planned to search for work in the export sector end up changing their plans, adding to the pool of searchers, creating congestion. Temporary protection can reduce congestion and make the transition to the new steady state smoother. Moreover, there are conditions under which the congestion externalities lead to multiple steady‐state equilibria that can be Pareto‐ranked. Temporary protection may lead to a permanent change in the allocation of resources, and this permanent change may be welfare‐enhancing.     

基于VAR模型的CCI影响因素分析

本文运用包含消费者预期指数、消费者满意指数的消费者信心指数的月度时间序列数据,利用VAR模型方法分析了消费者满意指数和预期指数的影响关系,同时,分析了它们与物价、消费、储蓄、股票市场的相互影响关系.分析结果显示:消费者满意指数和消费者预期指数有影响关系,滞后一期消费者预期指数对当期消费者满意指数和消费者预期指数都有正的影响,滞后二期的预期指数对当期满意指数有负的影响;物价指数对消费者信心指数的影响有明显的滞后,当期物价指数对下一期的满意指数和预期指数都有正的影响,对于下两期的有负的影响;无论从长期角度还是短期角度看,存款总额对消费者预期指数、消费者满意指数的影响都是正向的.同时,本文验证了消费者信心指数的信号引导功能,消费者预期指数有消费引导功能,其提升会导致以后的消费总额的增长;储蓄增长有助于信心指数的增长;股票市场对信心指数影响不显著.